Gartner's predictions leave plenty for Microsoft to worry about

Let's start with a disclaimer. Five-year forecasts are nearly always wrong and I have no reason to think Gartner's will be any different. Things tend to happen much faster or much slower than people initially forecast.

That said, if Gartner is even close to on point, there are plenty of trends that could be worrisome for Microsoft. First and foremost is the research firm's prediction that Apple will double its U.S. and western Europe market share by 2011.

Also of concern to folks in Redmond should be some of Gartner's other predictions. One is that a whole lot of us will start leaving our laptops at home. Gartner is estimating that the rise of pocket-size Web surfing products at around $400 means that by 2012 half of traveling workers will be able to leave the notebook at home. Helping that trend is the fact that it is growing easier to store your data and settings on the Internet and access them through any Web-connected device.

This should be a wake-up call to Microsoft. The company has been slow to compete in this area. Many of the most sought-after products, such as Apple's iPhone or Asus' Eee PC do not use Windows. Also, with Vista, Microsoft has created an operating system that requires more hardware, while the trend for these devices are to use slower, more energy efficient processors, along with more limited capacity flash memory.

Also of note for Microsoft watchers, Gartner predicts that within five years fully 80 percent of commercial software will include elements of open-source technology.

"Many open-source technologies are mature, stable and well supported," Gartner said. "They provide significant opportunities for vendors and users to lower their total cost of ownership and increase returns on investment. Ignoring this will put companies at a serious competitive disadvantage."

On the software-as-a-service front, Gartner is estimating that by 2012, businesses will be spending a third of their application budget on subscription products, as opposed to product licenses. The firm also believes that forward thinking businesses will start buying their IT infrastructure as a service.

"Increased high-speed bandwidth makes it practical to locate infrastructure at other sites and still receive the same response times," Gartner said. "This trend to accepting commodity infrastructure could end the traditional 'lock-in' with a single supplier and lower the costs of switching suppliers."

Among its other predictions, Gartner is predicting a huge rise in 3D printers, ever more environmental focus and a trend of businesses bowing to end user demand for a larger number of hardware and software purchases. What do you make of Gartner's guesses? Which are spot-on and which are off-base?

[john55440]

Eee PC with Windows XP preinstalled

"Many of the most sought-after products, such as Apple's iPhone or Asus' Eee PC do not use Windows."

****

"Asus has formally launched its bonsai laptop, the Eee PC, in Japan, pre-installing the machine with Windows XP Home Edition rather than Linux."

http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2008/01/23/eee_pc_japan_launch/

Coming to the USA soon...

[ferricoxide]

Too Bad

Microsoft so desperately wants to kill XP. Vista won't run on the Eee. If they stay on schedule with killing XP, the XP Eee will be a very short-lived product.

[reallythinkso]

WindowsXP is dead end product

In case you have not been watching, Microsoft will no longer sell XP to consumers after June of this year. Now tell us how great Vista is for this product? Or are you saying Microsoft screwed up, wasted 5 years and billions developing an OS consumers don't want?

[Penguinisto]

...in one market.

Otherwise, the Eee comes with Linux everywhere else (I suspect it's the canna/kanji support that gave XP the nod).

Also, come June I suspect the Eee will come with Linux in Japan as well... MSFT stops selling XP then. ;)

/P

[mjm01010101]

Software as a service

I manage a small/mid sized law firm and really nothing technical keeps us on Microsoft products. laziness and unwillingness to retrain on other platforms do. Software as a service is very appealing to us, because we have a very fast pipe to the net, our fleet of machines will likely be 100% laptop by 2011, and applications don't need to be on the desktop anymore like they used to. some? yes. but many, like mail, collaboration, communication really doesn't need to sit on the client anymore.

As an IT Manager I'm tired of swapping out client hardware every 3-4 years, also. It's time consuming, it's disruptive to the end-user, and really wastes time for me getting the important stuff done on the back-end. Just migrating to Vista from XP has me groaning. I'm kinda sick of having to do this every few years with Microsoft.

[JasonCe]

Ah come on

I remember your nickname, you post anti-ms comments to promote your "free(!) software" agenda all the time.

So this time you are disguised as a "small/mid size law firm IT Manager"? Sorry, we don't buy that one.

[YouTool]

Are you for real?

I can't tell if you are a man or woman, but nonetheless, you are so clearly anti-microsoft in your writing(s), I see no point in wasting more time reading your garbage.

[The_Decider]

Really

The author is very pro-MS. I don't think you have read much of his/her articles.

All the article is doing is rehashing a study. How does that make one anti-anything?

[john55440]

Mac's slow share growth...

Using Gartner's own figures, the Mac's USA share only grew from (Q4-06) 5.1% to (Q4-07) 6.1%; and the Mac's worldwide share is in the Others category, behind at least five other companies.

Gartner's "prediction that Apple will double its U.S. and western Europe market share by 2011" is silly.

[The_Decider]

re

6.1-5.1=1% increase in one year.

Unlike any MS product, Apple OSX is experiencing increased growth rates every year.

Given its mind share and increased interest, it is not only not a wild guess, it is very probable.

[ps_martin]

Yes, that sure is "slow share growth"...

By the numbers you provide, Apple's U.S. market share increased by 19.6% in one year (5.1%>>6.1%). If that rate continues, it should increase to roughly 12.48% by Q4-11.

I don't know about how they do math where you are from, but in my neck of the woods, 12.48% is roughly double 6.1%. Maybe Gartner was just using math to make that prediction and not just being "silly"?

[Vegaman_Dan]

Always a first time

Gartner hasn't been right in any of their previous 5 year predictions, so eventually they have to get one right some day. Too bad we'll have to wait five years to find out.

It's an opinion piece only, no news or content of value beyond what you put into it.

[Penguinisto]

Sometimes stating the obvious works too

...which is what Gartner basically did this go 'round.

/P

[maverick_nick]

Why it can't be summed up so easily.

I don't think that Gartner has taken into consideration all variables involved here. People are fickle and Mac is currently popular. It's like a fashion accessory right now. How long will it last? Well we'll have to wait and see, but if the desktop market shrinks Mac will shrink along with the rest. A company can't simply depend on a single mobile device - just ask Motorola.

If open source software is so great, then why is Microsoft still #1? Well that's because Microsoft has a brilliant business model comprised of Partners, and a whole lot of software developers that keep Microsoft at the top. For open source to take off, there has to be a mass migration of software developers from Microsoft's brilliant products to some open source stuff, which I don't think is going to happen.

Windows Vienna is taking a whole new approach to the operating system, and once released, the game rules will be redefined. So you can't judge the future of the market on current products, because things are going to be drastically different at the end of next year.

Let's not forget that Windows Mobile isn't confined to a single handset like Apple's iPhone and it's Mini OSX. Microsoft has many option when it comes to mobile devices and therefore a chance for a greater market share.

By the way, Microsoft isn't exactly dormant in the SaaS arena, so don't underestimate the behemoth.

[johnericanderson]

Double the Market Share

Hmmm. Almost nothing x 2. Hmmm.

"I predict" - (hey, I'm just as stupid as the other prophets.)
I predict Apple will vanish completely into Vapor.
Oh, they'll still exist. But for twice the price of a PC, you will get a little Apple Emblem to stick over your little Dell emblem.

Let's see. Apple doesn't make computers any more.
Nope. They're Intel now. Using standard parts.

They also don't make an OS anymore.
Nope. It's a Unix variant with a nice shell.

What's left? Phones? Ipods?
OK. I'll give you the Ipod (A little pricey and not better.)

Wait! They ARE pretty! Hmmm, I want two of them.

BTW, I have NOS Apple stickers for sale, if you want to paste them on your PC's.

[The_Decider]

Apple never made hardware

They use others, like most OEM's.

The difference is the OS and UI is high quality.

Compare an OSX box with a comparable Windows box and the Apple machine is usually cheaper.

You can compare a $2000 OSX computer with a crappy $500 machine at WalMart. That is like comparing an Aston Martin with a Hyundai.

[lpricci]

How could Gartner be soo off the mark?

This is so far off it is silly. Whoever put this together seem to think that Microsoft is just a PC and Server company. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Have they ever heard of Xbox? Whose game sales in 2007 were greater than Sony and Nintendo COMBINED? Did they know that Xbox Live is a subscription (e.g. monetized) community network with more VOD than any cable company? Did Gartner consider that Microsoft?s mobile and embedded products are growing like topsy, and are the power behind a big fraction of the GPS systems everyone is buying? Did they consider that Microsoft will soon, with Yahoo and Facebook, be the power behind the biggest social network sites? That MS ASP technology powers Myspace? Did they consider advanced, commercialized technologies like voice recognition in 800 Tellme, Ford Sync, and (yes) Vista and XP- (just turn it on). And what about the mid tier business offerings are leaving other commercial software companies walking wounded? And about those low power chips for the devices of the future- no-one is close to Microsoft in OS power management as seen in CE, the MicroFramework and probably the upcoming Oragami.

Gartner is usually pretty serious, but somehow they have totally missed the reality of Microsoft NOT in the PC and NOT in the Server.

Lawrence Ricci
www.EmbeddedInsider.com

[The_Decider]

XBOX hasn't made dime one

The Wii is eating its lunch.

The Xbox project has never been a profitable one. It is even worse now since last summer they had to sink another billion to fix a few of their mistakes.

[Penguinisto]

Spammer.

* Xbox is now #2, behind the Nintendo Wii.

* Xbox is still a money-loser, especially thanks to a $1bn write-off for warranty troubles last year.

* Yep - Xbox Live is a subscription service... but as an online service, it is positively tiny compared to, say, World of Warcraft and iTunes.

* You're over-counting the importance of social networking... MySpace is already old hat with little-to-no expansion potential, and Facebook is pretty much a clone of that. Also, I wouldn't brag so much on the ASP behind MySpace, what with the security-hole-du-jour that plagues the place. ;)

* The Ford Sync? I wonder what OnStar, Garmin, TomTom, and nearly every other major auto manufacturer's console kit runs on? It likely ain't Windows... Hint: embedded Linux outsells embedded Windows products something like 3:1. ;)

* OSX "mobile" is outselling Windows Mobile on smartphones at this time, according to Canalys, which tracks that sort of thing.

* The last two items are only operating systems.

[i]www.EmbeddedInsider.com[/i]

Ah, a Microsoft cheerleading site and 'consulting' company. No wonder you're so hip on MSFT - you've got customers to fleece and your bias lies there.

Filthy spammer...

/P

[ghsmith76]

Right on Target

I would say Microsoft's approach to buy Yahoo today offers significant supporting evidence to back up your predictions.

[skrubol]

Forgetting about Windows Mobile?

iPhone was brought up, basically indicating MS has no answer for this product segment. Meanwhile, I have a phone in my pocket that runs an MS OS, has a touch screen, is smaller than the iPhone, cost $150 less than what the iPhone does, has a user replaceable battery and is capable of running most of a library of thousands of available apps.
No, the the interface isn't quite as pretty as that on the iPhone, and it doesn't have multitouch, but it's not like MS has nothing in the market segment.

[WJeansonne]

Clueless Analysis of Gartner Report

This is the clueless part:

"This should be a wake-up call to Microsoft. The company has been slow to compete in this area. "

Yeah right, Microsoft is building data centers all of the world, has Windows Mobile OS, and now Windows Live products. In addition, it's porting it CRM products (and eventually Office) to Web enabled apps.

Moreover, my Windows Mobile 6 3G smartphone (i.e. BlackJack) can run circles around the gimmicky iPhone and other competitors. And yes, I can even browse the Web with it using mobile IE.

So give me a break!

[DeVizardofOZ]

Predictions

I tend to agree in general with Gartner.But predictions are only as good as the information we base them on. And if there may be total NEW concepts we just don't know YET:) .
Gates MS has good products, BUT as processor speed and storage size are getting better, all MS Windows applications are getting more voluptuous, instead of smarter and leaner. MS is still designing programs like GM has designed cars during the past, and lost.
APPLE will be growing, but if policies don't change will never reach the size of MS. Their main (hardware) problems were the cause of to bad quality control. Customers will not tolerate sloppy quality, greedy concepts like the iPhone, and empty promises. Red my lips, Steven Jobs...
Laptops will not be out... Who wants to read or edit articles on a PDA. The laptop is like the jeans, never dead, whatever design and technology it may have in the future.

[DeVizardofOZ]

Predictions

I tend to agree in general with Gartner.But predictions are only as good as the information we base them on. And if there may be total NEW concepts we just don't know YET:) .
Gates MS has good products, BUT as processor speed and storage size are getting better, all MS Windows applications are getting more voluptuous, instead of smarter and leaner. MS is still designing programs like GM has designed cars during the past, and lost.
APPLE will be growing, but if policies don't change will never reach the size of MS. Their main (hardware) problems were the cause of bad quality control. Customers will not tolerate sloppy quality, greedy concepts like the iPhone, and empty promises. Red my lips, Steven Jobs...
Laptops will not be out... Who wants to read or edit articles on a PDA. The laptop is like the jeans, never dead, whatever design and technology it may have in the future.

[Penguinisto]

Damn Straight...

For once, Gartner sat down and figured something out that makes sense. Kinda cool when they do that :)

/P

[BigTreeMan]

The Environment

Lengthening the tax write-off cycle time will help the environment and save companies the grief every time they update.

The real monetary cost of replacement is hidden by tax breaks, but everyone is paying in the long run.

The good old saying - "Don't fix it if it isn't broken"