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February 27, 2009 10:35 AM PST

Microsoft's glimpse of the future

by Ina Fried
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REDMOND, Wash.--At Microsoft's TechFest, it takes a little imagination to see how the research technologies might eventually come to market.

A new video from Microsoft shows in an elegant, if utopian way, what it might look like if all of those gadgets came together several years hence. Earlier on Friday, Microsoft Business Division President Stephen Elop showed the video in a speech at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business.

As I noted in my interview with Stephen Elop, the hardest thing for me to imagine wasn't that in several years time, all our walls will be displays, but rather that Microsoft will have become so efficient in getting all of its product groups working together.

Ian Sands, who works on future-related matters for the Microsoft Business Division, showed me the video earlier this week. The work, he said, brings together about 12 different projects that his unit is working on as part of Microsoft's long-term planning, a system known as Quests. Sands said that Microsoft is looking not just at the technological challenges, but also the organizational ones.

"It's forcing us to look at those issues," Sands said.

In any case, it's a pretty cool future tech video (I've embedded a somewhat shortened version below). The full version that Elop showed at Wharton earlier today included future implementations of a number of technologies that were on display at TechFest. It was pretty cool to see that someone is already looking at how those different things might interact together.

Among the TechFest projects that are evident in the video are SecondLight, a technology that allows a surface computer to project multiple displays, NanoTouch, a means for creating touch input on the back of a small electronic device, and a computerized receptionist.

"In concert, these things could have a broad impact," Sands said.

During her years at CNET News, Ina Fried has changed beats several times, changed genders once, and covered both of the Pirates of Silicon Valley. These days, most of her attention is focused on Microsoft. E-mail Ina.
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by ewelch February 27, 2009 10:54 AM PST
The video is SIlverlight. Is this part of that vision of the future? More like Epcot's 1963 vision of 1998 with flying cars. Ain't gonna happen. Microsoft's vision of the future is getting less and less relevant. They don't lead, they catch up. (Exhibit A: Win Mobile 6.5.)
Reply to this comment
by timber2005 February 27, 2009 12:33 PM PST
Yeah yeah... bash it now.
Everything had its start. http://www.reallifecomics.com/archive/070330.html
by Fil0403 February 28, 2009 2:13 AM PST
Yep, the video is Silverlight, not Flash. Nope, this is not part of that vision of the future, it's the present and it's very real. More like the technology that many who have studied, experimented, and used it already claimed will render Flash useless and already started that process. No, of course it ain't gonna happen; just like Windows, Office, IE, Xbox, etc. didn't either. Microsoft's vision of the future is getting so "less and less relevant" that this is the most popular story on CNET. They don't only lead, they innovate. (Exhibit A: Win 7; Exhibit B: Office 2007; Exhibit C: IE8; Exhibit D: Xbox 360; Exhibit E: Win Mobile 7; Exhibit F: Win Live Hotmail; etc.)
by pentest March 1, 2009 12:39 PM PST
Exhibit A: A bug fix of a crappy OSX wannabe.

Exhibit B: A bloated version of an already bloated office suit, complete with an ugly new UI that is nonsensical and ill-conceived. Ever seen 6 dialogs just to do something simple?

Exhibit C: A browser that is a follower of Firefox and would not even exist if not for the wily fox. It is also still a required part of the OS, meaning it is a malware vector.

Exhibit D: A failure in almost every way. HD DVD? Check! $1 billion dollars to fix the incompetence of the dev team? check! Unless you discount that $1 billion, XBOX hasn't made dime one. Wii is eating its lunch.

Exhibit E: Mobile 7??? LOL No comment necessary

Exhibit F: *** is innovative about this? It is nothing. Hotmail was solid until MS bought it and ruined it. It is also where 70% of spam originates.

Not only do they not innovate they are not leaders, they are followers.
by Mark_Anderson March 2, 2009 8:36 AM PST
@pentest

Did you think before you posted that? Obviously not.
by cpfort February 27, 2009 10:58 AM PST
I can't wait until someone adds the BSOD on every little gadget in this vid.
Reply to this comment
by bananaphonerules February 27, 2009 5:34 PM PST
Is the MAC the only product that recently had a BSOD?
by random truth February 27, 2009 9:50 PM PST
@bananaphonerules
Its a Mac. Not a MAC. MAC is
Media
Access
Control

Also mac osx do not get BSoD
by goodspeed8701 February 27, 2009 10:20 PM PST
@random lie
stop deceiving your self. you know the mac get BSOD. you can google it or youtube it.
by softreturn February 28, 2009 10:44 AM PST
@goofspeak1D10T

Mac's get Kernel Panics, not BSoD.
by random truth February 28, 2009 2:17 PM PST
@softreturn
Exactly. BSoD is the error message displayed when the windows kernel fails. In Macintosh the screen is overlayed with a message that says Your computer encountered an error and must restart Hold down the power button for 5 seconds.

Linux rarely has the kernel fail because of how it generally has other parts fail and it has seperate error message for each. Most commonly it is the x-server.
by DrtyDogg February 28, 2009 6:38 PM PST
@random truth: since you are in the mood to correct it is OS X not osx as that isn't even an acronym. OS X the X being a 10 in Roman numerals.
by YankeePoodle February 27, 2009 12:03 PM PST
ewelch,

Microsoft is certainly creator of wealth and has good number of intelligent people working on many ideas. Just by showing one example in their portfolio of products which is lagging does not prove that they are not creative. Your hate towards Microsoft is your prerogative.. spread love not hate.

Cheers
Reply to this comment
by karpenterskids February 27, 2009 12:13 PM PST
Some of those ideas were quite feasible!

The one that stood out the most to me was the electronic updating of grocery stores prices...now that I think about it, why don't grocery stores have that implemented already?!

It would save them so much money/time, since they wouldn't have to have manual labourers l changing prices all around the store on a regular basis!
Reply to this comment
by ppgreat February 27, 2009 2:07 PM PST
How about not having to stand in line? Just walk out with your cart through a scanner and have your bank account debited accordingly?
by Vegaman_Dan February 27, 2009 3:20 PM PST
@ppgreat:


"How about not having to stand in line? Just walk out with your cart through a scanner and have your bank account debited accordingly?"

That technology exists now with RFID's and QuickPay for some convenience stores. There are other similar offerings- it only requires each item to have an RFID and it can work just great.

Some people still need that time at the checkout lane to fiddle with writing- then rewriting a check manually, fumble for expired coupons, or argue with the cashier as if they had the power to change the price of tomato soup just because your sister in law in Detroit pays 10 cents less for the same thing.
by williast06 February 27, 2009 2:27 PM PST
When was the last time Microsoft was associated with innovation? Sure they developed the "Microsoft Touch," but the last time I saw that was in James Bond. Around the same time they were showing off this "multitouch technology" Apple comes out with the iPhone. If you want a realistic depiction of the future, look to Apple. They understand market forces and how to get "innovative" technology into the mainstream.
Reply to this comment
by JasonCe February 27, 2009 8:17 PM PST
Microsoft innovates at many more levels and product spaces than Apple ever has. It is just that consumers are unaware of those technologies because they are not immediately visible to them. They think of the ipod wheel as "innovation" but do not know how Microsoft R&D and software makes their everyday tasks possible, because it is all happening behind the curtain.

for example check the catalog of RFCs by author:
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/rfcauthor.htm

see how many RFCs were written by Microsoft, IBM, Sun, Cisco and other real innovative companies that do real R&D.

then check how many RFCs were written by Apple.
by derekwwww February 27, 2009 2:27 PM PST
Getting these pieces of equipment to work together seamlessly will be much more difficult compared with today's relatively simple computer system.

MS would be wise to focus on today's system first, making sure that the average home user can easily set up shared printer, router, wireless network, home server, pc-to-pc networking, etc. with no external assistance.
Reply to this comment
by wolivere February 27, 2009 2:32 PM PST
You can't do that today? seams to work fine on my system.
by topgunb2 February 28, 2009 12:55 AM PST
May be all the people I've come across are very smart as per your standard, I haven't come across anyone who had difficulty setting up all this stuff at home
by YankeePoodle February 27, 2009 3:11 PM PST
williast06,

you are confused between innovation and technical application. the problem is Microsoft one hand competes with Apple on other hand with Sony and on other hand with Oracle, IBM and SUN. So when you say Microsoft is moribund I only can laugh off these simplistic assertions. OK, do you count the patents filed nope? The Apple phenomenon is primarily American, outside the States Apple does not have significant foot-print, yes they do some nice stuff, I would give credit to apple for that and that is why I am owner of a IPhone and Powerbook. Having said that I cannot stand the general ignorance of people when they talk about lack of innovation from Microsoft. Robotic Studio, F# to Singularity to XBOX 360 to kernel in Windows 7, microsoft does innovation the only thing is it not packaged the way apple packages and the media wont go ga-ga on it because of their wet-dreams with apple and google. Educate yourself before making ignorant claims. You don't like Microsoft but it is still the massive Software company with lot of smart people. For all their fallacies they are still the Numero Uno.
Reply to this comment
by JasonCe February 27, 2009 8:19 PM PST
100% agreed. check my comment above.
by shellcodes_coder February 28, 2009 6:04 AM PST
Agree dude. Unlike other rotten apple users, you do have a brain :P
by williast06 March 1, 2009 7:41 AM PST
Do you really believe that any company with a market share of over 90% is beneficial to innovation? Microsoft's vertical and horizontal integration has led to decreased competition in all things technology. How do you explain the fact that 66.3% of people are still using Windows XP? If Microsoft is truly under the strain of a competitive market why is their dominant OS seven years old? Do you think if they did not have a 90% market share that it would have taken this long to come out with Windows 7? The European Union does not want Microsoft's Monopoly and is doing everything in its power to prevent them from entering their market. I like Bill Gates he is a very intelligent businessman, but so were Rockefeller and Carnegie.
by rapier1 March 2, 2009 9:25 AM PST
Is any company with a market share of over 90% beneficial to innovation? Dunno, what are your thoughts about Apple in the portable music player market?
by jasonkostempski November 8, 2009 6:37 AM PST
Their most amazing innovation so far, giving themselves a third hand.
by manodud February 27, 2009 3:22 PM PST
This is great!
Reply to this comment
by anhtney February 27, 2009 4:33 PM PST
the next gen. of stalking ! LOL
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by armen2772 February 27, 2009 11:38 PM PST
dreams, dreams, dreams. It's a GM of software industry.
Reply to this comment
by Fil0403 February 28, 2009 2:15 AM PST
Windows, Office, IE, Xbox. It's the (hard) reality.
by softreturn February 28, 2009 5:55 AM PST
of windows, office, ie and xbox only one of those comes in as close to best of breed.

vista was stillborn, ie is getting leapfrogged by firefox, chrome and safari and the xbox has the highest failure rate of any consumer product i can remember.
by Fil0403 February 28, 2009 2:19 AM PST
A nice reading (and watching) for those who like to claim Microsoft doesn't innovate (well, maybe not nice for them, but it's the reality anyways).
Reply to this comment
by tm_anon March 1, 2009 8:36 PM PST
But Microsoft doesn't innovate.

The XBox didn't come out until after the Playstation and wouldn't have sold any units at all except it was associated with Microsoft.

Windows isn't exactly cutting edge. The interface for Windows 7 is as close as possible to KDE 4.X. ( Yes, MS has used a tool bar since as early as I can remember, but so does every other OS in existence with a GUI )

Silverlight wasn't even used on the MS website the last time I checked, that may have changed, but it still goes a long way towards proving it wasn't ready then and really isn't ready now.

IE is a joke. When I used XP, I installed Firefox in order to stop most of the popups and spyware as well as most of the viruses that I was privy to otherwise (I actually used IE prior to switching so yes, I do know what I'm talking about). Now that I'm on Linux, I wouldn't install IE for any reason unless I was a web developer and it was required by my job to code for IE.

The Zune failed on a massive level and still hasn't caught on. I've seen the device, it's ok. A friend of mine uses it, but of course, she uses Windows. Try using a Zune on OS X or Linux and see where you get.

There's a difference between innovation and lock-in. That vid doesn't show innovation. It tries to paint a pretty picture of an all MS future. The reality would be quite different.
by rstoplabe14 March 2, 2009 8:55 PM PST
RE: tm_anon

Silverlight Has been on the Microsoft website since they released it, they just did it in phases. With more than 65% of computers using IE, I cant see how you can call that a joke. Also, why would Microsoft waste their money on by making the Zune OSX compatible. Usually people use the iPod first, and then get attracted to these dummy machines that just look good for who knows what reason. So 99.999% of the time an OSX user would never consider anything than one of those MP3 players. ( I still dont get why some stores label their portable music player section "iPod & MP3 players", idiots) And when it comes to linux, why even bother, almost no one makes drivers for those things anyways.
by artistjoh February 28, 2009 5:24 AM PST
I'm sorry, Microsoft just doesn't have that ability to get people excited. It is as if the whole company took on the personality of Bill Gates. I am sure he is a lovely guy and I think Windows 95 was incredibly important in the history of computing but lets face it, Bill Gates has always put people to slkeep every time he talks in public.

The innovations in the slide show depict some practical office stuff which really doesn't look all that revolutionary beside what we have already. It just doesn't fire the imagination, nor is it depicting anything particularly revolutionary.

I get more excitement and more feeling of being in the future by just walking into an Apple Store. The may well be selling today's technology but they do it in such a way that it has pizzazz. But then so many of the Apple stuff of the past has become the reality of today - from the GUI, the mouse, the modern form factor of the laptop, music stores, app stores, iPods, multi-touch phones. Sure Apple was rarely first with most of those things, but they put it together in such a way that they drove the adoption of these technologies by the masses and people tend to associate Apple with innovation while Microsoft is perceived as the stodgy but dependable guy in an office type software.

Microsoft has got a real problem when its real innovations produce a yawn while Apple creates the feeling of innovation out of thin air.
Reply to this comment
by danimalofia February 28, 2009 9:32 AM PST
To be frank, you may not like Microsoft, and that's fine, but you're woofully misinformed about Apple.
You are giving innovation credit to a company for things it did not innovate.
Apple did not invent the GUI. They came up with their own version of the GUI, just like Microsoft came up with their own version.
Apple did not invent the Mouse. They came up with their own version of the Mouse, just like Microsoft and its partners did.
Apple did not invent the modern form factor of the laptop. Again they just came up with their own version.
Apple did not invent music stores. Again they came up with their own version.

In fact the only thing on your list that Apple can lay claim to is the iPod. (That's kind of a duh... like saying Dell invented the Latitude Laptop. It's a brand.)

Apple has driven the adoption of a number of technologies, but their marketing generally uses a snobby type of image that does little for long term success. It has generally relied on being one of the most proprietary companies, working hard to prevent innovation and creativity. People generally buy stuff because of it's brand, and tend to believe what Apple marketing says just because they say it.

Thus you get people who think that Apple invented the GUI and the mouse.

It is true that Microsoft innovations, may not be next year's success or the year after, but as some people have pointed out Microsoft is one of the few companies that actually does do alot of innovation, and most people don't know it because it is happening behind the scenes.

It's alot like the real inventor of the GUI, who actually worked for Xerox. Or the inventor of the mouse Douglas Engelbert. Where did Apple fit in? It was jus one of a number of comapnies that came out with early consumer computers after IBM came out with the first.

While Apple can take credit for a few things, I would not rate them high on innovation.
by softreturn February 28, 2009 10:41 AM PST
@ dani, he states in his comment that "Apple was rarely first with most of those things, but they put it together in such a way that they drove the adoption of these technologies by the masses and people tend to associate Apple with innovation while Microsoft is perceived as the stodgy but dependable guy in an office type software."

reading ftw
by Mark_Anderson March 2, 2009 8:43 AM PST
"Apple was rarely first with most of those things, but they put it together in such a way that they drove the adoption of these technologies by the masses and people"

I'll think you'll find that it was MS who drove the adoption of the GUI and mouse amongst other things. To drive mass adoption you would have to have significant customer throughput which Apple simply didn't have at the time.
by jaspal.m February 28, 2009 7:35 AM PST
This is really cool...
Welll it just shows that you people(people against microsoft) are brainless,,,you people are comparing all the stuff shown in the clip above with iphone or ipod.
Reply to this comment
by bdennis410 February 28, 2009 11:39 AM PST
Loved the MSFT Video, drooling in anticiaption.
Wait! Is that AnyThing, AnyTime, AnyWhere?
If not, I will have to curb my enthusiasm.
The fact is tthat for the Internet to realize it's future as the source utility of AnyThing AnyTime AnyWhere, the device, the methodology for delivery of AAA-all these goodies -MUST be an AI driven, wireless, unique identifier that automatically places it's user/owner at the fulcrum of controlling multiple tasks, simultaneously, in any enironment.
Our society will be flooded with display devices of all types, but which are controlled by the usr/owner and his/her AI device.
Reply to this comment
by maverick_nick February 28, 2009 11:51 AM PST
That's a sexy video!
Reply to this comment
by ServedUp February 28, 2009 6:02 PM PST
just a bunch of marketing hype for their less than tech savvy investors to keep the dream alive that their stagnant IPO will rise again.. especially after their huge failure in not being able to acquire google or yahoo which could've juiced it up in contrast to the dotcom boom of the 90s..

microsoft has been throwing the idea of the "future office" for years and every year its met with even less enthusiasm than the year before.. the truth is it will never come to fruition when you juxtapose it with the present products they're coming out with now.. not to sound like a "hater" but nothing they've come out with to date has led me to believe otherwise.. almost every microsoft product past and present has had a counterpart: xbox/playstation, zune/ipod, silverlight/flash, windows/linux/mac os, metro/PDF, me and IE/netscape navigator and the sad thing is they've never been first to market in any of these categories..

so how could one come to the conclusion they'll champion this kind future for us all? the mere thought of believing this is ludicrous and laughable.

and so the vaporware continues...
Reply to this comment
by Inconnux March 1, 2009 1:52 PM PST
Vision of my future... no microsoft products in my house after my XP machine dies...
Reply to this comment
by tm_anon March 1, 2009 8:40 PM PST
Why not start today? You could always install one of many Linux distros. I use Ubuntu and so it's what I would recommend.
by Inconnux March 2, 2009 8:01 AM PST
There are programs (games!) that I use that Linux won't cut it. I personally use Fedora on my laptop.
by cchanote March 1, 2009 7:26 PM PST
I do not my work going everywhere with me, that is why I have room for work (office) and the rest for another things. I do not to "information overload" myself.
Reply to this comment
by martusfine1 March 1, 2009 8:11 PM PST
didn't they tell us that we would be wearing and viewing small little tvs thru one eye (portability), while selling stock (long range wifi or internet connection), and looking cool. None of that really came true......here's to the future.
Reply to this comment
by arj8138 March 1, 2009 8:46 PM PST
GREAT VID MICROSOFT - now make some of the ISH and well start to respect your innovativeness again.
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About Beyond Binary

During her years at CNET News, Ina Fried has changed beats several times, changed genders once, and covered both of the Pirates of Silicon Valley. These days, most of her attention is focused on Microsoft.


Beyond Binary is a look at how technology is changing our lives and the people behind all that life-changing stuff, with an extra emphasis on that which emanates from Redmond, Wash.

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