Why Microsoft should fear Ubuntu's cloud efforts

As we try to figure out the future of the cloud, one thing is assured: developers will drive both deployment and consumption approaches. As is common to so many other major software shifts, developers lead, regardless of what vendors want the market to look like.

With the exception of Amazon.com and Google, neither of which are IT stalwarts, there hasn't been much to write home about from the obvious big vendors. IBM, Sun Microsystems, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, and Microsoft have all made proclamations, with only Microsoft offering much in the way of a system to test-drive, let alone deploy.

In the past, Microsoft could show up late to a party and still win. That's becoming harder to do, as it's forced to compete on so many fronts. Despite a vast developer army, Microsoft's efforts have been highly confusing and occasionally nonsensical. Microsoft needs developers to win in the cloud.

Ubuntu in the clouds

(Credit: Ubuntu)

But Ubuntu, with legions of developers and more than 10 million users, has substantial market power to shift the cloud into entirely different directions.

As fellow CNET blogger James Urquhart pointed out, Ubuntu now has "cloud computing" inside.

• Ubuntu server will start promoting cloud computing through entirely open-source software.
• For those wishing to manage clouds, Ubuntu will apparently contain tools that leverage the Amazon APIs
• Canonical will create standard Amazon Machine Images from Karmic Koala, essentially creating "ready to run" appliances that will serve as "standard builds" to the Amazon community.
• The Eucalyptus project out of UC Santa Barbara will soon be included in every install package.

When I last spoke with Canonical chief Mark Shuttleworth, he mentioned that he had no interest in being a cloud provider. His take was that everyone should have the ability to choose the shape, size, and vendor (including internal compute clouds via Eucalyptus) of their cloud efforts, and by integrating these tools into Ubuntu, he's helped to take that first step.

Much the way Amazon has become the default standard for cloud deployment, Ubuntu's approach could very easily become the de facto developer standard. Odds are that vendors that favor open approaches--IBM, Dell, and Sun will be amenable to this, but it's hard to see Microsoft or ultraconservative companies like SAP hop on board. Of course, if they don't, they could easily miss the ride.

You can follow me on Twitter @daveofdoom.

[another_cissp]

I am sure Microsoft is shaking in its gold boots. Google and Amazon are not IT stalwart? If making billions of dollars through IT does not qualify you as an IT stalwart , what does?

[flickrz]

Google makes money by selling ads; just like a TV station or a web portal. IT is being used by them extensively but they don't sell it to make bilions.

[Penguinisto]

Err, Amazon nor Google makes income from providing services and/or products for IT.

[daverosenberg]

Neither Google nor Amazon make the bulk of their revenues selling software or IT services. Using IT is a totally different thing.

[another_cissp]

Google makes the bulk of its money selling advertising for the software and services it offers. Just because they do not charge directly for their software and services does not make them less of an IT company. Obviously, Amazon is different.

[Penguinisto]

"Google makes the bulk of its money selling advertising for the software and services it offers."

You're partially right - Google makes its money from advertising, but with no focus on IT or any other niche.

[Vegaman_Dan]

While I don't think Microsoft has anything to fear from Ubuntu and cloud services, they can certainly observe and learn a few things.

[bdaughtry]

Microsoft has EVERYTHING to fear from Ubuntu and cloud services. Their Windows desktop monopoly is at risk. Their Office cash cow is at risk. You can bet Microsoft is well aware of their risk.

[AppleSuxLeo]

Hey , hey hee , hee , get offa my cloud ! The Stones were 40+ years ahead of their time.

[rubik33]

yea... nice article but Azure's MS's cloud platform, so it's not like ubuntu's 'leading the pack'

as for devs? java, ruby, c, all the standard nix languages right? that either take a gazillion lines of code to do basic stuff, are quick to scaffold but fall over into a mess once you reach any level of complexity, or have been weighed down by so much hacked development that performance bailed out a long time ago.

thanks for another doomsday prediciton.

[JuggerNaut]

Dude, with Java and Ruby, you do not need to write gazillion lines of code to get things done. There are so many defined classes for those 2 programming languages it'll make your head spin. As for C, yeah, you'll have to write lots of lines of code, but then again it's the fastest performing programming language (at run time) in the land beyond assembly and machine code!

no squat!!

[ppgreat]

In all fairness, Azure is MS's cloud platform. However, it is not an open source solution nor is it being approached as such. As short as the details are about Azure, the revenue model is non-existent.

You will still have to deal with and pay for:
Azure
.NET
Live
Sharepoint
Dynamics

The MS infrastructure ain't going away soon under the Azure model.

[iquaid]

You write:

"... with legions of developers and more than 10 million users ... "

It's interesting hyperbole, but is it backed by facts? Where does "10 million users" come from? It's been quoted for some time now by many people. I know exactly where Fedora gets its numbers about millions of users: https://fedoraproject.org/wiki/Statistics

Regarding legions of developers, are you in fact referring to the actual legions of developers who work on Linux, the services, and graphical applications that are shipped as part of a distro?