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Report: PlayStation 3 could be top-selling next-gen console by 2011
While it will be in third place among next-gen consoles during 2008, the Play Station 3 could emerge as the top-selling console by 2011.
(Credit: Sony Computer Entertainment of America)
For more than a year, the whole world has seen Sony's PlayStation 3 get its rear handed to it by Nintendo's Wii and Microsoft's Xbox 360.
But if a three-year forecast from market research firm iSuppli is to be believed, the PS3 could out pace both the Wii and the Xbox by 2011.
Since its release in November 2006, the Wii has been the most successful of the next-gen consoles, far eclipsing Microsoft's Xbox 360 and leaving the PS3 in the dust.
But because the Xbox had a full year's head start on both the Wii or the PS3, it still had the overall sales lead.
Now, however, that lead looks imperiled, and according to a report in Information Week, the Wii could soon become the overall sales leader among the three consoles.
The article cited market research firm iSuppli as determining that by the end of 2008, the Wii will have sold a total of 30.2 million units, 17.5 percent higher than the projected 25.7 million Xboxes Microsoft will have sold.
But the really interesting news in the iSuppli report is a forecast that by 2011, the PS3 could be the top console. The research firm predicted that by the end of 2011, the PS3 could have sold 38.4 million units, while the Wii might be in second place at 37.7 million.
Of course, three-year forecasts have about as much chance of being right in electronics as predictions of who will win the World Series in three years.
Still, for anyone to put their name to a forecast that the PS3 could emerge from its doldrums is actually quite noteworthy. And for me, it's a hint of future validation since in the fall of 2006, I wrote a story suggesting that the PS3 would be the eventual winner of the next-gen console wars.
Shortly thereafter, of course, that suggestion made me look rather foolish when Sony's much-publicized problems with production and overpricing got the PS3 off to an extremely poor start. And with the surprise success of the Wii, my prediction looked even more foolish, even though Sony said from day one that it views its consoles as 10-year plays.
And of course, iSuppli's forecast could be just as far off base as mine was. But the fact that it is willing to make such a prognostication here, in 2008, is gratifying. Even if it's a bit mystifying.
Daniel Terdiman is a staff writer at CNET News covering games, Net culture, and everything in between. E-mail Daniel.
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But, interestingly that Xbox seems to be out of picture in 2011.
Yeah, look at me . . I wrote a follow up article saying "I was right afterall"
Sony is pretty much guaranteed to come in 3rd . . but congratulations on finding someone else who agrees w/ you
My money is on Xbox 360 for one reason....price. Wonder how well they'd sell for $299.00. I'm not sure the general public is ready for the game "server" yet.
30,000 units, and you feel it's time to put out an article basically
saying that the PS3, "COULD" outsell the competition by 2011?
This around the same time both other companies will be putting
out NEW consoles anyway? . . . Please. I like the way the headline
is worded by the way, to cover your ass whichever way the wind
blows. If it DOES win a prize in 2011, you can say, . ."I told you
so", . . . If it stays in 3rd place you can say, "I NEVER said
WOULD, I said COULD"
Very clever, . . . how about taking a real stand friend? Stop *****
footing around it and say YES or NO, . and while your at it, come
on over and try and get my 60GB PS3 to stop freezing all the
time.
Their graph shows a bell curve of installed base, peaking for both the Wii and 360 in 2010. I find that odd because 360 came out much earlier than the Wii, whereas the difference in release between the Wii and PS3 is in the neighborhood of a month.
Too many questionable assumptions that go contrary to what the market is showing. Predictions are dime a dozen, and no one is ever held accountable for flawed predictions, now are they???
This is like saying that the internal combustion engine backfires all the time, so don't drive a car. Newsflash, that issue was resolved years ago as well.
Sony PS3 fanbois will say anything to justify spending $600 on a console with very little games and games that are poorer to their 360 counterparts.
Good stuff.
Who knows what technological changes there might be in three years, but don't worry because this story said that in 3 years the PS3 might be #1.
In three years we are going to have laptops sold for almost nothing (almost there now). Hi Def TV proliferation, and who know what else...
The PS3 could be irrelevant!!
If in 2011... the XBOX360, Wii, and PS3 are still the "latest" generation of gaming system... Then probably would signify that the game console days are in a recession.
3 YEARS!!!! That is just short of an eternity in the consumer electronic market.
At the end of the day.... It all boils down to one thing, IMHO. The GAMES!!!!!
The quality of the games dictate the success of the system.
All the other stuff that the systems do... there are other things that do it... and do it better for the most part.
I gotta tell sony something. It isn't even the price. Its the size. They see how many units they sell in the small form factor but they still insist on producing tabletop devices when we want laptop sized devices. Backwards compatibility isn't even a issue. Why don't they just build a new system and forget about backwards compatibility. Now the last part... and this is where the XBOX 360 is starting to get it right ( don't own it but have been reading and keeping track) Do we really need a disk or packaging anymore? Make a base unit with no disk drive. You can connect one via ieee1394 or usb2 if you wish to. Online service to purchase titiles would be better. It would cut a lot of piracy. It would Cut Prices.
Really though, we should be happy for reports like this. More competition means better products from all ends. I'd love to see Sony quality hardware in a Microsoft product, and Microsoft quality online support with a Sony product. Everyone has there ups and downs, but if there is not one to compare it to, why fix it?
consoles. 3 years is an eternity in technology.
World wide Sony are just about kicking Xbox into third place, certainly in Japan and moving fast in Europe.
I do not see it that far of a stretch in that ps3 moving to it rightful position as number one.
But some key things will have to happen, the RROD have to keep on happening to xbox consoles.
And this is the main thing the WII lose third party games, this is likely as games made by anyone other than Nintendo are not selling well on the system they lose this support then console is probably gonna drop sale or certainly encourage their players to go out and buy a other game console.
Then come 2008 games releases, this is a other thing that might just be a turning point, they got a majority of their big hitting titles all release this year, all their major product expansion are release this year, Playtv for example. All this goes well for the console.
And their the price drop, I certainly think sony will be releasing a new price for the console, probably dropping it below 200 pounds in Britain. and probably something like 299 in the united states by the end of the year. This makes the package even more worth its money than the XBOX.
Do I think Sony will continue to support PS3 after their new console goes onto the market, hell yeah it a PR advantage for company, plus it builds a bit of loyalty know you going to find yourself with out new games to buy after a new console is release, a other reason why I am not gonna by Nintendo or Microsoft, both companies always abandon their console after new one is release. Plus Sony will kill to Final Fantasy exclusive to the console and with out that game I am not buying any other game console in the near future.
The Xbox360 is doing well in the States, OK in Europe and really badly in Japan. I just think as the market moves its capability in comparison with the PS3 will start to show.
The PS3 from recent reports got to 1m in the UK faster than the PS2 or the Xbox360, so on track for great things here.
With the Blu-Ray HD DVD uncertainty almost sorted the PS3 will be even more compelling. It will sell to gamers and to people who want an upgradeable Blu-Ray player that can also function as a media server. So, I expect PS3 sales to increase rapidly with the arrival of some key games this year and also as being the de facto Blu-Ray player.
I expect by the end of 2008 the momentum behind each of the consoles will be very different.
Just to make things more fun, lets start throwing in some really fun exclusives that can not be matched by the 360. Having programed on x86 and Cell, I can say that game programmers are using at best 10% of the cells capacity.
Yes, the 360 will do a slightly better job with shading. With the PS3, the AI of the game can run many continuous simulations of what the player will do. If he turns right, what is the best strategy? Oops, he turned left. bring NPC[17] north. It looks like he is getting a bit frustrated, If he dies this time, push him to the east ridge so he can see the opening....
- 720
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by sal-magnone
February 15, 2008 7:28 AM PST
- Yes, but how will it compare with the XBox 720 in 2011?
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