Nintendo primed for holiday console dominance

Nintendo seems ready to resume its dominance over its video game console competitors, Microsoft and Sony, and to shake off several tepid months of sales, an analyst suggested Monday.

Those comments came after Nintendo put out a press release boasting that it had sold 550,000 Wiis in the U.S. during Thanksgiving week, leading Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter to estimate that the company may have sold about 1.1 million of the consoles for all of November.

Analyst Michael Pachter thinks the Wii is ready to resume its dominance over its rivals.

(Credit: Nintendo)

Last November, Nintendo moved 2.04 million Wiis, so if Pachter is correct about this month's data--his estimate was based on a formula in which November sales numbers are equal to roughly double the Thanksgiving week sales figures--the company sold only a little more than half the units it did a year ago. Still, Pachter estimated that Microsoft and Sony will have sold about 700,000 Xbox 360s and PlayStations, respectively, during November.

A Microsoft representative said that, while the company doesn't provide internal sales numbers, Black Friday week Xbox sales were the best of the year and at least two times the previous week. A Sony representative said that the PS3 had a banner Thanksgiving week, and that 440,000 of the consoles were sold during the week. Nintendo did not respond to a request for sales numbers for Thanksgiving week a year ago.

Using Pachter's formula, the PS3 sales numbers would mean that about 880,000 of the consoles were sold for all of November.

Since the true beginning of the so-called next-generation console wars in November 2006--when both the PS3 and the Wii were released, joining the Xbox 360, which hit store shelves a year before that--the Wii has been the dominant player, routinely outselling its competitors.

Now the prices for all three consoles are within $100--the Wii and the lowest-priced Xbox are $199, while the PS3 is $299. That has led to an increase in sales for Nintendo's peers, especially for the PS3, which in September won its first month ever for U.S. sales, according to industry analyst the NPD Group.

Indeed, even Nintendo has acknowledged it had lost some of its steam. Last month, the company's president, Satoru Iwata, said, "The Wii has stalled."

But Pachter suggested that the Thanksgiving week numbers show that Nintendo has simply been a victim of its own success, and that the sales of the Wii--and its handheld game machines, the DS and DSi--are still very impressive.

"You can't really criticize Nintendo for" past success, Pachter said. "They're definitely going to be very solid and dominant this holiday season, but last year, they were so large and dramatic, (those numbers) are going to be hard to compare to."

For the Thanksgiving week, Nintendo said it sold more than 1.5 million devices, meaning that it sold almost 1 million of the DS and DSi. And to Pachter, that might be the most impressive data point of all.

After all, he said, the DS first came out in 2004. "When is this thing going to get old?" he said. "It never dies. It's amazing to me, but people just keep buying them."

Still, Nintendo's biggest advantage--over the PS3, at least--is that the Wii costs $100 less. And if Sony ever drops the PS3's sticker under $200, that could mean big trouble for the Wii, Pachter said. Such a move would force Nintendo to do something dramatic to keep up.

While he didn't say that Nintendo would need an entirely new console at that point, he did say that a sub-$200 PS3 would force Nintendo to do something like add a processor and graphics card similar to what is available on the PS3 and the Xbox. And that, among other things, means high-definition.

"I think consumers need that," Pachter said.

Updated at 5:10 p.m. with comment from Microsoft, and at 7:55 p.m. with comment from Sony.

[G|Net]

"I think consumer need that," Pachter said.<br /><br />- Hmm, is that what he said? He didn't know how to pluralize 'consumer'?

[cirej2000]

He just be keepin it real!

[d4nowar]

The biggest advantage of the Wii over the PS3 is name recognition and perceived ease of use. Little kids and older people don't have the slightest idea what a PS3 is, much less operate one.<br /><br />Also, "It never ides."

[cvaldes1831]

Sub-$200 is the magic number, when the spousal approval requirement is waived.

[cirej2000]

Unless you're Tiger Woods...

[Gold_Storm_Mac]

Wii is for young kids and old adults. not in between

[psedog]

I disagree. The Wii is more family orientated. While the PS3/360 are more hard core oriented. I love my PS3, but I can't really play it when my little ones are in the room. The WII on the other hand has more games aimed at a family experience. My PS3 gets more multimedia tasks at home than gaming. When I'm out (on the ocean (USN)) on the other hand the PS3 is a serious gaming machine.<br />If we only had the PS3 or only the 360 the console wars would be a different battle field. Sony or Microsoft would have about the same sales as Nintendo, but since the two companies are fighting the same fight they are loosing.

[subslug]

The only thing that really gets to me is that they call all of these consoles "next generation" when the Wii can hardly hold a candle to either the Xbox or the PS3 in terms of abilities.<br />Sure the Wii has it's ease of use but, that's where the comparison ends. In every other way the Wii lags way behind the other two units, I just don't really feel like they are comparing apples to apples by grouping all of these systems together.<br />Gaming is just a fraction of the things you can do on the PS3...the extra $100 for the PS3 is very easy to justify once you add up all it can do over the Wii.

[Xenite227]

Wrong, stop being a fanboy. <br /> <br />What has made Wii a success is that fact that it has outsold other consoles for ALL age groups. <br /> <br />It's also a great console for pc gamers, as it plays much different then your typical pc game. If I wanted the rehashed sequels that ps3 and 360 offer i'll play the pc port versions of them. Very little exclusive content anymore, and even fewer buying consoles for it.

[kieranmullen]

I predict Microsoft's sales will go up this year due to them banning many users.

[gadgetshare]

Your wrong Xenite227, you didn't explain how the Wii is a<br />Succes. The PS3 &#38; 360 have great exclusives, you<br />seem to be the fanboy with no knowledge about video games. There is Uncharted 2, Ratchet &#38; Clank, Metal Gear Solid 4, Infamous, LittleBigPlanet, Grand Turismo 5, God of War 3 and more for the PS3. The 360 has Halo 3, Orange Box, Fable 2, Forza 3, Gears of War series, viva pinata and more. Plus patcher is wrong most of the time.

[play7]

"Your wrong Xenite227, you didn't explain how the Wii is a <br />Succes." <br /> <br />Does he have to? itsw already been a "Succes." for years now Look at the units sold

[Philips]

"It never dies. It's amazing to me, but people just keep buying them."<br /><br />DS Lite is rather frail device. I had to replace mine after two years. My friend's kids are already on third one.

[OfficerNelson]

Pretty much gave up on my DS original the day I bought it. I find the dual-screen idea pretty stupid - I'll stick to my dual-screen PC. And don't get me started on the DSi-diot, I've got a phone for a digital camera, thanks.

[sittingincomputerclass]

The point of a DS Lite is that it's easier to maneuver and fits well in the palm of any age hand. The originals were crap, I agree. And as for replacing one if it is broken, my little brother has broken two (not really 'broken', more like he spilled things on them and just wasn't careful as to the places he left them); Nintendo has replaced both of them for free. The things have a monster of a warranty, if you know how to use it. But I must comply with Nelson's opinion: The DSi is just bait to get little kids to scream for a new toy with not a lot of new features. It isn't worth the extra 75 bucks or so, to be sure.

[jthemsley]

you know what would make it a bigger success, actually releasing new quality games. and one guy saying it's for younger/older demographics is sort of right. not that all age groups don't play, but the system lacks way too much game variety to sustain a typical gamer's needs. it's cute but its target audience is completely different than that of the other consoles. only thing I can think of coming that I want are Tatsunoko vs. Capcom and No More Heroes 2, both exclusives, and neither really that aim towards the normal Wii game experience nor children/older adults (I realize exceptions, but IMO, reasonably correctly looking at the whole)

[BtmnHatesRbn]

GameCrazy stores' sales numbers are already reporting a 2-to-1 sales ratio over PS3 and 360, also disproving $ony's lie that they "won" September. On Friday, GameCrazy reported no Wii machines in stock, but had plenty of the other two. Did consumers buy the other two? According to early sales reports from the stores, not really. This baffled the management. It's still Wii. And no matter what complaints are launched at Wii software, the sorriest Wii titles by Third Parties still sells around 500,000 copies, while the average Wii game sells near 1,000,000 copies. Compared to $ony and Micro$oft, who go bonkers over 100,000 copies, Wii is still smashing the competition. Also, GameSpot ran an interview with somebody who threw around real sales numbers. Unless it's Wii and DS, the other three formats aren't in a healthy place in gaming.