Rumor: Nintendo to have new Wii 'by 2011'

Update at 2:10 p.m. PDT: This story now reflects Nintendo's response to a request for comment.

If there's one thing that's sure to get video gamers talking, it's a rumor that there could be a new Wii, Xbox, or PlayStation console on the horizon.

Well, the hot topic of discussion du jour is that there could be a new Wii by 2011, according to a post on the blog What They Play.

(Credit: Nintendo)

That site "has heard from multiple sources in the game development and publishing community that Nintendo is currently showing early presentations of its next home console hardware. Apparently set to hit the market 'by 2011,' the device is said to be the true 'next generation' Nintendo console, and far more than a simple refresh of the current (Wii) hardware."

The post continued, asserting that this rumored new device could have high-definition capabilities, as well as a "greater emphasis on digitally distributed and backwardly compatible content."

For its part, Nintendo said it does not comment on rumors.

It could be mere coincidence (because odds are that even if the rumors are true, Nintendo wouldn't want to confirm them for quite some time), but on Thursday, the company is hosting its annual media day here in San Francisco. And I'd been told that it would "have news" it would be releasing at the event. Until now, I'd assumed the news would be something only minimally consequential, but of course, announcing a new Wii development project would make a few headlines, I would think.

More likely, the news that Nintendo will put out Thursday will be about a new multimedia DS handheld device, such as the one the video game blog Joystiq says could be unveiled at a separate press event in Japan Wednesday night.

Still, if the new Wii rumors are true, it will be a long time before Nintendo would be ready to unveil any details--think maybe the Game Development Conference in March, 2009, or E3 next July. Or possibly not even then.

One big question is why Nintendo would be rushing to put out a new console when the Wii is selling at unbelievable levels, far outselling Microsoft's Xbox 360 and Sony's PlayStation 3. In August, according to industry analysts The NPD Group, the Wii sold 453,000 units, while the Xbox moved 195,000 and the PS3 just 185,000.

Of course, as has been made abundantly clear over the last year or so, many people don't consider the Wii to be a direct competitor to the Xbox and the PS3. Rather, some see the Wii as complementary to the other two consoles, despite the fact that before any of them hit the market, all three were touted as "next generation" devices.

But the Xbox and the PS3 are both HD consoles that provide very high-quality graphics capabilities. By contrast, the Wii's graphics are not nearly as powerful; instead, the console's success is based mainly on its innovative motion-sensitive controllers.

Some gamers, however, would most likely love to see a console from Nintendo that can offer high-quality graphics and HD capabilities, which is why any new Wii, such as the one talked about in these rumors, centers on that functionality.

It would be fair to ask why a Nintendo console would need HD capabilities, and the answer there could easily be that just because any new device had them doesn't mean all new games for it would have to take advantage of them. Some could, however, and I'm sure gamers would like the variety of choices that such a development would offer.

Price-wise, however, it's hard to see how a new Wii device would make sense. One way the Wii has arrived at its dominant position--one few expected before the three consoles hit the market in 2005 and 2006--is by having the lowest price.

Now, however, the lowest-end Xbox costs less than the Wii. Last month, Microsoft said it was lowering the price of the Xbox Arcade to $199, becoming the first next-gen console to break the $200 price barrier that many industry observers feel is the magic price point that opens up a market to mass consumers. The Wii still costs $249.

But in my opinion, that $50 price difference would not be enough to discourage Wii buyers--holiday 2008 sales will tell the story, I suppose--and I expect that in the near term, Nintendo will continue to see its sales be an order of magnitude higher than the Xbox or the PS3.

And over the next couple of years, the Wii's price could drop further, joining the Xbox below the $200 threshold and ensuring continued strong sales.

So why would Nintendo want to put out a new console that would almost surely cost more?

That's the question I think is hard to answer. The company would almost certainly have to subsidize the price to keep it low, and as long as there wasn't yet a new Xbox or PlayStation--some think Microsoft may have a new device in the works, while almost no one foresees a PlayStation 4 any time soon--a new HD Wii would mean that Nintendo would have to lose money in the short term to build market share with a new device, even as the Wii would likely still be selling well.

All in all, it's hard to know how to take rumors like these. There are certainly some reasons to think Nintendo would want to go this direction, and there are other reasons why it wouldn't.

Eventually, of course, Nintendo will have to release a new console--and the traditional five-year console cycle would have the company coming out with a new one in 2011. But why mess with the kind of success the Wii is having?

[MadLyb]

Yawn. 3 years is forever for a group with an attention span measured in milliseconds.

I would hope that they focus on creating or encouraging the creation of more content designed for the platform to take advantage of it's unique capabilities rather the cross platform trash we see every day. Wii Sports showed the potential of the platform, but there has been very little beyond to fulfill it.

[Stormspace]

I'll tell you why Nintendo might release a new Wii sooner than expected. They were late to market with the Wii and the concept of backward compatibility in a console. Nintendo had years of market dominance where could have introduced backwards compatibility with each new console and have a lock on the next gen due to an existing catalog of titles already on the market. Instead they pushed a new console and games with each new generation. Sony took advantage of this weakness and Nintendo lost the dominance they had when the PS2 came out being able to play most of the old PS1 titles. The PS2 was able to maintain it's momentum going forward while pushing the new capabilities of the PS2 console.

Nintendo slipped and has had to one up the competition by providing an innovative experience and backwards compatibility for the 12 people that bought game cubes. <jk> Nintendo needs to introduce an HD console before Sony and Microsoft introduce their next gen devices in part because the Wii still behind technology wise and while Sony and MS struggle to offer motion sensitive controllers Nintendo can ramp up the features of the Wii.

[viper396]

Stormspace, do you even know what your talking about? (I doubt you do) Backwards compatability is extremely hard, if not impossible, to do when your previous consoles were cartridge based. There was no way Nintendo could make a gamecube that could play N64/SNES/NES games without requiring the user to purchase an expensive add-on peripheral. If you knew anything about the industry add-on peripherals never sell very well.

Backwards compatability was never a requirement in console gaming and played only a negligable part of the PS2's success. If anything DVD playback was the significant factor. Backwards compatability isn't even a concerning factor in todays consoles given the fact that the current PS3 models don't even play PS2 games anymore and updates to the 360's backwards compatability have stopped.

[Stormspace]

Hah! They've managed to keep a certain amount of cartridge based backwards compatibility with the DS, and the Gameboy SP before that and the DS is currently selling better than all the other consoles combined. So yes, I'd say bakwards compatibility was possible and the main reason why the PS2 and Xbox 360 did so well initially. Whether Sony and Microsoft want to continue making backwards compatible hardware has no relevance on the past situation I'm talking about.

[Jammin411]

Viper is right, backwards compatibility is not an easy thing to achieve on modern or even non-modern consoles. Cartridge based games are nearly impossible to have backwards compatibility without the use of an add on to the unit. While Nintendo has fallen behind in technology they have also proven that they do not need technology to remain a competitor in the market. I doubt many of use thought that the Wii would outsell the 360 and PS3 combined some months.

Nintendo has filled a market that needed filled and has seemingly found their niche in the market. Families everywhere are enjoying a huge range of titles that literally the entire family can play. While the Wii did have a lack of features it did offer an amazing array of titles that were truly just fun. While HD would be a nice addition I still do not feel it is required for the new Wii to be successful. Price point alone is enough for 80% to buy the Wii.

[gopnick]

By 2011, the technology offered by Microsoft and Sony will be incrementally higher than their current consoles. It isn't about getting ahead - it's about staying in the game. If Nintendo isn't thinking about their next-generation console the minute they release the current version, they're being downright negligent.

[affinity13]

In 3 years HD market penetration will be much higher.
Wii is missing out on some games that could provide unique experience that you can' t get with x360 or ps3. Would be more awesome if they have a Blu-ray drive, a light media extender channel and a bit of local storage.

[ithomas94]

you don't know that.
who knows, companies might stop using cds and start making downloadable games.
Sure blu-ray will own this dvd generation. But this generation won't last very long.

[ruoppster]

could they just release a new version of the Wii similar to what MS and Sony have done. They could keep the Wii and maybe even drop the price but the new model would offer what the rumors say, games would be developed for the Wii but the features of the new machine would be just like if a game supported Rummble or Online features....Because of brand awareness with the Wii I think they would most likely just add a suffix similar to what Apple has done with the iPod line so I think they would call the product something like Wii HD or Wii + - but I like the HD version much better.

[Chris686]

This is not what this article is talking about. This is a whole new system. MS and Sony haven't really done anything new with their revisions but up the HDD space, and in the case of the 360 add HDMI, which unfortunately the Wii lacks altogether making it a technically inferior system. The Wii would be a decent system overall if it had a HD.

MS and Sony are already planning a new console for the future, believe me. With the rate the graphics technology is accelerating, 2011 is not very surprising. I'd expect a new console around this time from MS, Sony, and Nintendo. I don't think this "rumor" is anything legitimate. I think it's just common sense. From here on out we'll be seeing new consoles much quicker than we have in the past. With storage and graphics technologies advancing at such a quick rate, a 5 year life-span for a console is not unrealistic.

And let's face it, $3-500 every 5 years is not unrealistic for a piece of hardware. Most people upgrade their computers every 2-3 years, so why is it so shocking to upgrade a gaming console every 5? I don't expect my PC to last 5 years, so why should I expect a gaming console, which is much more dependent on hardware than a PC, to last that long?

[lilwhit9]

who cares its so far away

[coffee_shop]

id rather play dreamcast over any new nintendo product

[geezer_88]

................Good luck with that, seeing they dont make them any more because they FAILED so hard.

[SonyRO]

If you think about it, 2011 fits in Nintendo's Hardware cycle. They bring out a new console every 5 years pretty much. Also, the article mentions that their agreement with IBM/ATI expires that year, so providing backwards compatibility might have something to do with getting a new system out too. Who knows. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

[SonyRO]

If you think about it, 2011 fits in Nintendo's Hardware cycle. They bring out a new console every 5 years pretty much. Also, the article mentions that their agreement with IBM/ATI expires that year, so providing backwards compatibility might have something to do with getting a new system out too. Who knows. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

[Philips]

Or could be simply rumored long time ago DVD playback?

I agree with rest that it is too early to say something about next console. I'm sure that new chip for it is already designed, yet what would the console offer to gamers is still unclear: that always can be changed in last moment (and N has history of surprises).

[Chris686]

It's not too early. 2011 is a very realistic timeframe for a new console. Not just for Nintendo, but for Sony and MS as well.

[ferretboy88]

Is it still going to be marketed for little kids so they can play with their mommies? How sweet. I'll stick to playing my other consoles.

[MelissaDiss]

I just wish I could get my hands on Wii Fit. Been trying for months...Louis Kestenbaum is the Wii Fit champion of our neighborhood, and I'd love to take his title. Can you imagine how difficult it will be to get one of these newer Wii's in 3 years? Then again, we all may be onto something new by then.

[FitFreak202]

Hey, is that Louis Kestenbaum the gluten free guru? Are you on the West Coast? There's a blog I read, by Louis Kestenbaum, that has gluten free food ideas. Maybe that's why he's the wii fit champ - the gf diet revs him up!

[TCrimson05]

I can think of a reason nintendo would. Because........whoever made this up said they would. lol It's a rumor guys...that's it lol. Yes the next nintendo system will feature more HD capabilities, and it will probably stick with the motion control and expand on everything the Wii does right (and hopefully drop what it does wrong) but the fact of the matter is they won't do it any time soon. They aren't going to release it until the next batch of systems of due and whether 1st of last to do so they'll wait until they feel they're ready. But I won't doubt that Nintendo And Microsoft are already in the earliest stages of developing new systems but don't expect news for a couple years, after all it's only 08'. I would think that if anything to be announced soon it's a new DS. It does seem about the right time for that. As for Sony,they're just barely getting their claws in with the PS3...they need to focus of the present. With the other two outselling it (Wii outselling all of them) Nintendo and 'Soft have luxuries Sony can't afford yet. By my guess the closer to '11 we get the more rumors we'll hear but don't expect any "Official" from anybody till E3 2010.

(If they're still having it...is it me or do you miss the old "thousands of people and developers" E3?)

I'm just saying....this past one looked like a small town auto show......lol i want "Detroit E3" back.

[jr20079]

It better not have a super noisy fan

5 years (fall 2011) is the standard Nintendo cycle. Anybody can assume that year, as well as including HD capability. These things are no-brainers.

[3rdalbum]

I think we'll see two Wii + 1 consoles, both compatible with eachother. One with cheap, low-performance hardware in the similar vein as the Wii; and another with high-performance hardware that will provide the best gaming experience. Games will detect whether you've got the good console or the cheap console, and adjust the graphics accordingly. That way, Nintendo can satisfy the budget gamers as well as those with a bit more money to spare.

Blu-ray would be great on the high-performance machine!

[make_or_break]

On current availability: I've been seeing Wiis at some of the big box retailers on a regular basis of late (Fry's mostly, but at Best Buy as well). I've even encountered them down at Costco. The big drawback is the bundling that some--though not all--of these sellers are doing with the console. I realize that many of them are doing it to make the purchase less attractive to the scavengers who are only looking at flipping Wiis on eBay, but it also forces the real consumers of the Wii to spend on things that they may not need or want. Costco does it to try to get a value "discount" on the entire package, as if spending more equates to spending less.

Hard to say if lightning will strike twice for Nintendo. If the next Wii is merely an upgrade to the current one, I doubt it'll have the runaway success. The Wii as it is would certainly continue to be "good enough" for more than a few casual consumers, just like the PS2 continues to be "good enough" for quite a few buyers instead of ratcheting up to the more expensive PS3. What makes the Wii so desirable is the controller interface, and unless Nintendo somehow makes it even more immersive and involving for the user, then everything else is just marginal improvements that the casual fan won't necessarily feel any strong need to upgrade to. Yes there will be a LOT more HD television sets installed by 2011. Yes it would be great if the next Wii takes advantage of that. But the inherent positives of the today's Wii certainly hasn't been hurt by its relatively low-tech stature now, and it's hard to say if that going to be any different in only a couple of years.

[zhakidd532]

I hope this new Wii when it comes out will be in line as much as possible with the technology 3 years from now but still keeping it affordable. I don't need my system to be ridiculously powerful, but high quality graphics would be nice. The motion sensors will be more honed by then, it'll run smoother too. I hope there will be better integration of Wii and DS too. The new DS will have some nice things that the Wii will be able to work off of.

I think the real reason the Wii is not as powerful as the Xbox or PS3 is that Nintendo didn't really have the resources to make something like that at the time. After the Gamecube, they were really on their last legs. If the Wii had failed, it would have been all over for Nintendo, you'd be seeing Mario on Xbox. At the time, they tried to put together something new and innovative that catered to the masses that would cost the least amount of money to develop and sell. Everyone and their mom has a DVD player, they didn't need to put it in the Wii. Most people just want to have fun and can do without the crazy graphics. They realized that and played off of that. That's how they got back on top.

That being said, Nintendo now has the ability to go and make a system with souped up graphics and other capabilities while subsidizing it enough to put it in the hands of the masses. Now all they do is develop the system, which obviously takes a lot of time and money, hence the 2011 alleged target.

[Ryan_R]

I recently bought a Wii for my family. I don't consider it a rival to the PS2 or XBOX - it's just a toy in it's own right (an expensive one at that). I have no real desire to get a XBOX or PS because I'm own a hardcore PC. Why update the hardware of a gaming console that can't be used to do movie editing and so on like a PC can. PC gaming is still far ahead of console gaming as far as performance and quality go if you can afford the hardware.

[mdad8200]

I think it would be great to offer more than one console. XBox is not doing better due, in part, to the perception of it being a violent game console with hyper-real graphics. Wii escapes that and focuses on fun. Wii loses users who move from Pokeymon to COD and want better graphics and who needs HD for Wii fit? Longer term, integrating interactive play with better graphics opens up more options. The technology by 2011 will be commonplace. Blueray was a centerpeice of the Sony strategy, not because it was needed for PS3, but because it was needed by Sony Enterprises (the movie people). I think a differentiated product suite with better storage options and a DVD player would be nice sooner.
It may not make sense to have a full new console in 2008/9, but by 2011 the Wii will be old. Letting the other guys match your new ideas while letting your product age would be a great strategy to put Sony or MS back in the lead.