Mobile IM to surpass SMS?
A recent Gartner study estimates that 189 billion mobile messages have been sent by U.S. mobile-phone subscribers in 2007. It forecasts 301 billion mobile messages sent in 2008.
If correct, those figures would still account for only a small fraction of the 2.3 trillion messages to be sent across major markets worldwide in 2008 (a 19.6 percent increase from the 2007 total of 1.9 trillion messages). Asia is the biggest mobile-messaging market worldwide. China is in the lead, with approximately 560 billion SMS messages sent in 2007, followed by the Philippines' 430 billion and Japan's 190 billion.
The vast majority of the 189 billion mobile messages to be sent in the United States are expected to be SMS text messages, with an average use of about two SMS messages per U.S. subscriber per day. That is similar to the level of SMS activity in the United Kingdom in 2005 and still only at the global average of 2.1 SMS messages per day. The average number in the U.K. today is six SMS messages per day. Singapore is at 12, and the Philippines even at 15.
While the U.S. is still lagging behind Asia and Europe, its adoption of SMS is obviously accelerating. Gartner predicts that this will further propel mobile-payment solutions, as SMS will continue to be the dominant channel for mobile payments.
The analyst house believes that the number of consumers making payments using their mobile phones is set to soar from 32.9 million in 2008 to 103.9 million in 2011.
Despite the continued growth of SMS usage, however, Gartner expects growth rates to slow as direct mobile connections are becoming increasingly cannibalized by mobile-IM communities and social-network portals.
As I wrote before, there is huge potential for an elegant, seamless, cross-platform, and cross-media IM solution that enables the ideal of the "never-ending conversation."
It looks like Apple might again be the first mover here. The company is apparently developing a chat application for the iPhone, as revealed recently through a patent application that describes a "portable electronic device with a touch-screen display, comprising (a) means for displaying a set of messages exchanged between a user of the device and another person in a chronological order." That's basically the description of an UI for an iPhone IM application.
CNBC analyst Jim Cramer thinks that an iPhone IM application is going to be to instant messaging what the iPod was to the Walkman. And Ars Technica is not alone when it suspects that most of the iPhone users will probably value "a way to use instant messaging without using up their SMS message quota."
While the iPhone currently relies on SMS, Apple could add AIM, Jabber, or Twitter to the interface and thus become the de facto universal conversation enabler. However, building a native IM application (and adding third-party chat applications) could create conflicts with iPhone operators that might be concerned about losing potential SMS revenue, if users sidestep SMS by using IM programs.
We will soon find out. The momentum is building up toward a possible unveiling of the next-generation iPhone at Apple's Worldwide Developer Conference on June 9.
Tim Leberecht is Frog Design's of vice president of marketing and communications. He has worked in the media, entertainment, and high-tech industries. Most recently, he was the head of corporate communications at Mindjet, a provider of mind-mapping software for the enterprise. Prior to Mindjet, he served as a press chief for the Athens 2004 International Olympic Torch Relay and in marketing communications for Deutsche Telekom in Germany. Tim runs the iPlot blog, and has published and spoken about branding, organizational communication, social media, and attention economics. Tim is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET. 
- by rosa2255sg April 1, 2009 2:35 AM PDT
- Instant messenger (IM) bukan barang baru lagi. Tapi IM secara mobile mungkin belum banyak yang mengaplikasikan. Saya masih melihat, banyak teman-teman yang masih mengoperasikan IM secara manual, artinya pesan yang dikirim atau diterima masih sebatas lewat SMS biasa, dengan tarif SMS internasional Rp 500,- per SMS. Itu pun tidak semua operator seluler bisa menghandel layanan ini.
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(3 Comments)Ada alternatif lain yang lebih murah. Yakni memaksimalkan fungsi GPRS pada hape untuk ber-IM ria. Layanan IM terpopuler rasanya masih didominasi oleh Yahoo dengan YM-nya. Nah, ber-YM secara mobile akan membuat kita selalu terhubung dengan rekan atau relasi setiap saat. Dari pengalaman, saya men-setting hape saya Sony Erricson K610i untuk surfing sekaligus berkirim pesan via YM ini. Chip yang saya pakai punya IM3 dengan tarif Rp 1,- per KB nya. Tentu saja dengan patokan tarif ini saya bisa menghemat banyak pulsa seluler di hape saya. Bayangkan dengan ber-YM selama 1 jam, tidak habis Rp 500,- artinya saya menghabiskan cuma 500Kb untuk ber-YM ria. Siapa sih yang tidak ingin hemat pulsa?
Lalu, syarat apa saja untuk membuat hape kita bisa ber-YM ria secara mobile? Yang jelas, hape-nya sudah mengusung teknologi GPRS. Kemudian support dengan Java application, karena sebagian besar aplikasi IM mobile ini adalah berbasis Java. Rasa-rasanya hape sekarang sudah ada semua fitur-fitur yang saya sebut tadi.
Langkah awal adalah men-setting konektivitas GPRS nya. Biasaya terletak di menu konektivitas kemudian pilih layanan data. Terus terang detil settingnya tidak saya jelaskan disini karena informasinya sudah begitu berlimpah bila kita cari di internet, coba Googling saja dengan keyword "setting GPRS".
Setelah diset, dan bisa terkoneksi, downloadlah aplikasi IM mobile-nya. Beberapa aplikasi messenger client sudah saya coba, seperti shMessenger dan EQO, tetapi yang paling stabil adalah aplikasi Fonwar mobile messenger client (masih versi beta), bisa didownload langsung dari hape anda dengan mengetik url-nya di : http://m.fonwar.com atau http://id.fonwar.com untuk versi Indonesia. File instalasinya sekitar 100Kb an, kurang lebih 4 sampai 5 menit sudah bisa ter-download di hape dan langsung bisa dijalankan.
Setelah terinstal, anda langsung bisa login dengan beberapa layanan sekaligus, seperti Google Talk dan MSN messenger. Rasanya sungguh asyik bisa ngobrol dan terkoneksi dengan internet dimana saja :D.
Selamat ber-IM ria...eh ber YM ria.