Wireless industry going through its AOL phase
CORONADO, Calif.--It's the mid-1990s for the mobile industry: lots of walled gardens, lots of fragmentation, and lots of promise.
We've been writing about the future of mobile computing for years now, and it's no surprise that panelists at the Future in Review conference are eyeing the same space. There's a clear shift going on toward mobile computing, seen both in the PC space, as notebooks overtake designs, and in the evolving handheld/subnotebook space with a surge in interest in smartphones and things like the Eee PC.
Moderator Chetan Sharma, Telestra's Hugh Bradlow, and Yahoo's Gary Roshak (left to right) listen to a fellow panelist discuss mobile computing.
(Credit: Tom Krazit/CNET News.com)The current mobile situation reminds Jonathan Bulkeley, formerly of AOL and currently CEO of ScanBuy, of his days at the once-ubiqituous ISP in the mid-1990s. Companies like AOL, Prodigy, and CompuServe offered metered access to the Internet in those days and strictly controlled what the user accessed on those networks; just as mobile ISPs like Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint have done for many years until recently.
By 1996 or 1997, however, the entire market had changed to meet demand for flat-rate pricing, again mirrored by the recent actions of the carriers to provide all-you-can-download plans. Once subscriber revenues were fixed at a certain number, the ISPs needed to find advertising and service revenues to keep growing. And that's what the current mobile industry needs: "The next phase is advertising and commerce growth--who's going to get the $1 trillion in value (that's up for grabs)?" Bulkeley wondered.
Before that comes to pass, however, a few things have to change. Hugh Bradlow, chief technology office for Australian carrier Telstra, bemoaned the current fragmented state of the mobile software industry. "The handset industry is in an absolutely shocking state," he said, noting that mobile application developers are faced with way too many competing platforms for their products.
Yahoo is trying to completely bypass that issue by focusing on mobile widgets, said Gary Roshak, vice president of mobile advertisers and publishers at the company. "The world doesn't need another phone operating system. We don't really care if you run on (the various operating systems). We want to fuel these mobile-first experiences."
The devices themselves also need to change, Bulkeley said. "These devices aren't meant to navigate a portal page, but they are best suited when you know what you want to get and you go right to it," he said. Bulkeley's new company is trying to get the mobile industry to support bar-code scanning, where mobile users can take a snapshot of a bar code in a store and get instant information regarding a product or service.
But the trends are undeniable. Rajeev Chand, managing director and wireless analyst at Rutberg & Co., noted some statistics that ESPN released just after the end of the last NFL season. On the last weekend of the season--when football fans were captivated by the thrilling New England Patriots-New York Giants game--ESPN's mobile site recorded more hits than its regular site.
However, it's just not enough to capture the traffic, as any ex-AOLer knows.
"We learned from the first phase that whoever controls the traffic and monetizes it, wins," Bulkeley said.
Tom Krazit writes about the ever-expanding world of Internet search, including Google, Yahoo, online advertising, and portals, as well as the evolution of mobile computing. He has written about traditional PC companies, chip manufacturers, and mobile computers, spending the last three years covering Apple. E-mail Tom. 
Even if they were start, it would still not be available to ordinary folk like me since they want to get some higher margins by milking urban areas before they think about investing in developing for the rural area where I live. I have lived in a part of Jamaica near the south coast for nearly 20 years and there is no LAN line telephone system in place and Cable & Wireless has no interest in bringing development here, thats why everyone end up choosing Digicel cell phones instead, since Cable & Wireless is considered unreliable and ungrateful when it comes to their mobile services.
- by Penguinisto May 21, 2008 4:51 PM PDT
- Dear Heavens... they missed (entirely) the one thing they need most of all - a common means of interoperability (no, not one OS to rule them all, but a set of protocols). The Internet exploded in popularity because it had a set of simple, universal, and IP-unencumbered protocols: TCP/IP underneath it all, with HTTP, SMTP, FTP, and NNTP (*sigh*) atop them. Even Microsoft had to play nice with these protocols and comply with these, else they would've been consigned to oblivion ages ago. The mobile industry OTOH has a shedload of conflicting and often highly incompatible protocols for damned near every layer of action, from screen-top to data carrier signal (insofar as EDGE v. 3G v. ???). Until they can sort out a common set of protocols and stick to them, it's very likely that they'll be relegated to also-rans in the competition for overall network user marketshare.
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