As industry recovers, Mac growth beating PCs
It's been a tough road for everyone in the tech sector over the past year, but there are small signs of recovery, especially for Apple.
(Credit:
Apple, Inc.)
Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty says Apple is outperforming the PC market in sales growth, and this was before Apple released its new MacBook Pros in June, according to a report on Fortune's Apple 2.0 Wednesday. Of course, releasing a new notebook would only spur sales for the months after its release.
Huberty said that in May, Apple shipments were up 25 percent over April. In comparison, PC shipments for the same period were up only 1 percent, according to Fortune. As a result, she is raising her forecast for the this quarter to 2.5 million Macs.
In its fiscal second quarter 2009, Apple sold 2.2 million Macs, a 3 percent decline for the company over the year-ago quarter. While down, this isn't a significant decrease considering the economy.
However, if Huberty's predictions are true and Apple does sell 2.5 million Macs in the third-quarter, the company will see a nominal increase from the 2.496 million sold during last year's third-quarter.
Consumer interest in its products led Apple to the top of Nielsen's report released on Tuesday, documenting the most trafficked hardware Web sites. Apple more than doubled the traffic of its nearest competitor Hewlett-Packard.
Jim Dalrymple has followed Apple and the Mac industry for the last 15 years, first as part of MacCentral and then in various positions at Macworld. Jim also writes about the professional audio market, examining the best ways to record music using a Macintosh. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET. He currently runs The Loop. You can follow him on Twitter @jdalrymple. 
In other news, Bill Gates and I each found a bag with $1 million dollars in it. My net worth increased 50%. His increased .1%. I am beating Bill Gates.
You and me are competing for the business in the same area. You have 90% of the market share and I have 8%. The entire industry is growing by 20% a year. My business is growing by 25% which is higher than the industry and yours is lower than the industry. That is a fair example. Yes, Apple has lower market share but it's growing faster.
If my net worth increased yearly by 50% while bill's only increased by 0.1% yearly, I can pass him far sooner than you or he thinks ;)
and BTW Microsft = Software company, Apple = hardware company
it's better to compare Apple to HP ,Asus etc !
That was a hilarious example..
If your net worth kept increasing by 1 million dollars a year, and Bill Gate's net worth kept increasing by 1 million dollars a year, you'll *never* overtake him becuase he started with more..
Now, while your net worth is a pittance compared to his, it's actually possible for you to increase by 25% or 50% in a year. When you get to his size, you'll struggle for every 0.001% increase.
I think that completes the analogy nicely, don't you? Always important to have a tiny dose of realism with your KoolAid :)
On a related note though, I absolutely welcome any increas in Apple's market share, and this is definitely positive news for them. Competetion can only benefit us all.
Also, compare REVENUE INCREASE ... not deployed units. Apple sells almost 40% of the PC revenue !!! That is in Hardware and software. Microsoft does NOT sell hardware (besides the XBox and some minor stuff). Apple is in a sweet spot where they sell a LOT of the high end stuff ... high priced Laptops, etc. When Apple sells ONE computer it perhaps represents 2-3 for other manufactures in terms of revenue.
Compare Apple to OTHER PC manufactures, not with the whole industry !!!! That is ... with Dell, HP, Toshiba, Sony ... INDIVIDUALY !! Apple is a computer company ... they make PCs just like any other company.
Now, let's see the numbers, growth of Apple vs Dell? Apple vs. HP? Apple vs. Sony. I am sure Apple is kicking ass.
I am sure that for Windows users, this is not what you want to see. You want to see Microsoft beating Apple .. that is all you care about ... well ... it is stupid !
Are you suggesting that this 25% increase that Apple got cannot be converted into an absolute number my some basic arithmatic?
Are you suggesting that if/when Apple gets 50% or 90% of the computer market they will still be manage 25% increases in sales, year-on-year?
Or would you like a reality check with your KoolAid?
My point that market share numbers are a myth, everybody that is releasing these "numbers" has an objective( http://pulse.alacra.com/analyst-comments/Kathryn_Huberty-A5339 her most recent Comments: 7, six of which are about Apple), and with a little skill any number can be skewed to show something positive.
1- PC sales were on decline
2- check with net book sales which have exploded.
( I think you'll see a huge disparity and questions about which PC numbers hes talking about)
4-Forcasting sales via web traffic?
Mac fanatics are usually the ones surfing the internet or blogging (like they have jobs but dont).
They are also the ones that follow the Mac sites for rumors, any rumors:
Will the iphone do this, have this function? Will Steve jobs Die? He's DEAD! No he's alive. He has hormone problems. Oh now a liver transplant...etc...
Reread Jim's Bio and you'll see why these numbers he's mentioning are not completely accurate and that the predictions are based on hope, not reality.
Great response jabberwolf. Apple fanboys will keep playing with numbers to avoid the truth: The effect of the snob apple ads are over and people see the truth: Macs are PCs with twice the price and half the functionality.
I use both. And I haven't had any personality conflicts about it, but then I am not like JasonCe - cost isn't an object.
Apple doesn't make a stripped down computer, where WiFi and bluetooth are options, where Ethernet stops at 100 BaseT, and where you only get a crippled version of the OS.
When you compare comparably equipped machines, especially laptops, then the difference, if any, is often less than the sales tax. Whether it is worth it is up to you. For me it is. (I use Windows every workday. And it is on our 3 Intel macs at home for various reasons, so I am making an informed judgment.)
In the automotive market many people spend far more for a car than I am willing to spend. Do the snob appeal ads for cars bother you? Not me. I just pass them by.
So... PC users don't surf the internet or blog? Get real, stop talking out of your a.
I really don't understand why all the PC fanboys are all over these Apple articles. If I don't like a TV show, I change the station, if I don't like a song on the radio, I change the station, if I don't like a store, I don't shop there.
Why are you still here?
Dunno about you, but I suspect that this isn't much comfort to either Dell, HP, or Lenovo, who would rather you buy a full-sized laptop, than have to scrape by on razor-thin margins in a market segment they don't own.
Meanwhile, Apple has no such worries, and is steadily eating away at their competition. If they continue with the same growth rate percentages and if it actually holds year-on-year (this has yet to be determined on an absolute scale, since Apple's FY ain't over just yet, IIRC), then the line you're assuming then becomes an upward curve (which means that Apple's ~10% of the computer market becomes 12.5% next year, then 15.6% two years hence, then...)
I think you can now see why the CxO's of Dell, HP, Microsoft and etc. aren't exactly as thrilled by your analysis as you apparently are. If they remained static and moribund (not likely, but so far they have been), they can easily see themselves having to fight over a shrunken 75% of the market in less than five years, 50% in less than ten, and etc.
Once a tipping point is reached, then businesses start looking into it... and that could signal even bigger changes.
While I sincerely doubt that such a curve could/would continue on such a log scale (at least not without a few major changes in Apple's pricing structure, for starters), I can see where Apple can handily own the mid-range and the upper, more profitable reaches of the consumer market, while pricing pressure and market drain from the netbook makers force Dell and HP (and etc) to fight hard for the scraps of what's left. Microsoft would be caught in the middle, since their OS doesn't run so hot on the netbooks (at least when compared to the competition), and Apple doesn't need Windows.
"Mac fanatics are usually the ones surfing the internet or blogging (like they have jobs but dont[sic])."
...and you're here posting at 1:15 pm PDT on a Wednesday afternoon because...?
I certainly am not that guy... nice stab in the dark, though.
BE GONE TROLL!!! l
LOL
why are we Comparing the whole lot of them to Macs again ?
It?s a wonder that industry pundits with large readership blogs rarely delve into the reasoning behind industry and market trends.
I have the Windows 7 RC running here and while it is very nice I would not buy a new computer just to get it. When the RC expires I will more than likely just nuke the partition because there are not enough benefits to make me spring for the Ultimate version. Anyway, I don't think you are going to see a big surge in PC sales just because Windows 7 is out. You will probably see a big surge in Windows 7 upgrade sales, however. If the economy is still in the tank hardware sales will probably remain a bit slow.
On the other hand, it could be that the economy is in the toilet, so the #1 buyer of PC computers - big businesses - are either tightening their belts and making due with what they have - or they are taking advantage of great sales from all those brilliant bankrupt businesses who are liquidating their awesome collection of PCs.
Microsoft confirmed this itself, go check it up.
* It's the Christmas season and they getting a new PC as a present
* New hardware is available that is much better than what they already have
* Current hardware is no longer sufficient to run desired applications
* Current hardware is out of warranty (this one is more for businesses)
It is possible that getting Windows 7 on the PC makes the decision to buy easier but I highly doubt that it will be the driving force behind the decision to buy.
So, for those who would be nay-sayers concerning the report, I would say that they need information.
That's not something that Microsoft can control
However like you I did notice that Vista ran better (which is to say I have the least amount of problems with it) on my Mac.
If you like your PC and Windows, stay with it. I don't care what you use, just what we use. If Macs ever get too PC like, I will switch to Linux.
I am yet to find a Mac with Blu-Ray player to start ripping them. Frankly you give away the sorry story. I have never had to install a driver to use a USB drive. I use three of them regularly. All with TimeMachine and for backups. Two are dupes and third for media only.
You may have owned a Mac or you know someone who does and you have cooked up this story.
They are available, not yet from Apple, but if a Mac user needs one then http://www.mcetech.com/blu-ray/
Ya beat be to it. The driver thing was another giveaway.
@Perry_Clease
OK, now the rest of the softies can shut up about Mac not supporting Blu-Ray.
I meant firmware for the drive. BTW, I would never "cook" up a story like this. Not my style. Also I still have the iMac in the house for the wife and I still have issues with OSX. Look, like some others have said whatever works for you is great. For me it is not a Mac.
If a very large number grows at 1% and the very small numbers grows at 25% it doesn't take all that long before the small number is bigger than the orginally big one.
Of course the market can only buy so many computers so if Mac sales grow, something else shrinks. That's the windows share.
and Why dont people understand that Macs are like Luxury cars
even with Single digit Market share , they can derive a healthy profit !
If Macs have 5% of the total market, it would take less than 14 years for Mac sales to surpass PC sales at the growth rates above.
If Macs have 15% of the consumer + education market (a more relevant measure because there are plenty of point of sale and other situations where there is a specialized windows OS and Macs don't and are not intended to compete), it would take less than 10 years to surpass.
But, of course, that is not likely to happen.
What has happened is that netbooks had propped up PC sales during the downturn (but are low margin, which hurt the bottom line of all who sold them), but those sales have plateaued as customers have been disappointed in their features. In many cases, they were also second computers. Non netbook sales declined a great deal last year. Basically, primary computers. The Mac sales fell less than the industry average for non netbooks, and now macsales are growing faster than the industry average for non netbooks. That means Apple marketshare in the non netbook computer sector has been increasing for 2 years.
As I pointed out in upwards. Numbers are fun with the right formula you can make them say whatever you want and at the same time 100% accurate.
So the story posted at 12:48 pm, and by 1:15 pm not 27 minutes later you are onto those writers at CNET. You make statements about people you have no clue about assuming because they have a Mac they have no job and you are the one's waiting for an Apple story to hit CNET and you pounce all over it.
I think there is a saying about people who live in glass houses should not throw stones.
You people may wish to do some personal self evaluations. And to make matters worst, in your zealous attempt to taint any news story related to Apple, you then turn to attack the writers. Good job!
Because Mac users do the same damn thing I don't see why you can not see it.
We could have 30 Mac fanboys spewing off at the mouth and then 2 Windows fanboys making comments and all of a sudden the Windows users are out of control.
Check how things are in your own damn house before judging others.
I love the irony of your comment....
Because Mac users do the same damn thing I don't see why you can not see it.
We could have 30 Mac fanboys spewing off at the mouth and then 2 Windows fanboys making comments and all of a sudden the Windows users are out of control.
Check how things are in your own damn house before judging others."
And this coming from the kettle himself.
Ok, I feel better now.
I think that the generic PC industry needs to look at innovation instead of NetBooks and other fad machines to propel growth. What are the differentiating characteristics of Dell v. HP v. Gateway v. the endless stream of Windows PCs? Aside from price, not much. If you want to grow like Apple, don't simply rely on Microsoft and Intel to save you.
Windows 7 will spur some more growth, as expected- but many project that the big Windows 7 gains will be made from upgrades of existing units. I hope that Microsoft can wow consumers again, and that Apple continues its rise- we need to good standout systems.
GO MAC!!!!! IM ROOTING FOR YOU!
as far as MAC vs PC/Windows goes, i choose linux.
And also my firm's tech support expence decreased dramatically after switching, though other related fees might increase.
To a geek squad guy like you? Not good news, not at all.
http://www.businessinsider.com/mac-sales-about-as-bad-as-expected-in-may-ipod-worse-2009-6
I for one will wait a couple years before entertaining Windows 7. My dual core 2.6ghz xp pro machine will be fast enough to do work, look at movies and look at smut for the next couple years. As a repair tech it was a silly waste of time learning Vista. I can only imagine then nightmare it must be for businesses having to migrate to these incomplete broken OS's.
I wonder why Mac and Linux (namely ubuntu) haven't taken advantage of the latest obvious Microsoft blunder. They should have got more aggressive about getting their machines and OS's in young peoples hands. FOlks will forget about VIsta pretty fast just like they did WinMe.
Wouldn't it make more sense to compare manufacturers (ie Apple vs. Dell vs. HP vs. Acer)? Or is the implication that it's Apple vs. Microsoft? These PC makers sell Linux offerings as well, do these figure in to these numbers, or are the numbers so negligible that they're ignored?
I understand that Apple is in the unique position of being the hardware AND software vendor, so you can't really split those numbers...I'm just questioning the point of the article when it seems like you're comparing an orange to a bag of tangerines. Similar, but just different enough to be called something else.
This isn't a sports league where you are pitted against one team or another. It's an industry, where you are measured against a metric as well as your peers. The metric here is industry market share and year over year sales growth v. industry sales growth.
When cloning came about, machines that at that time ran MS/PC-DOS were known as "PC compatible" computers. Over time, the term PC became generic, like making a "Xerox" of something, and the compatible was dropped. But it still meant a machine that was designed to run PC-DOS (or MS-DOS).
Even for the longest time as Windows was taking over, there was still MS-DOS underneath. Now, current new machines can't run MS-DOS at all, so technically NONE of the computers sold today are PCs. They are all computers, they are all capable of running Windows or Linux or a flavor of Unix (if licensed to run on that model).
Thus, Apple, Dell, etc. all simply sell computers today, as they can all run Windows equally, or any other OS. It takes more work to install OS X on a non-Apple branded machine, but it can be done (I'm using one now).
So, the whole PC argument is a dead one. PC's as classically defined died years ago, but as a completely generic term as an alternative to computer, then you are right, GK, everyone making a consumer computer is making a PC at this point, because
They are all PC's.
IBM didn't invent the PC.
When Mac came along it was convenient to call it a Mac for short.
When that happned what was left of the "PC" market was generic for Dos/Windows machines.
... where as the Micro$oft market share is receding with acceleration.
Go Micro$oft GO ... out of the software business! Maybe there is a niche market in producing discount keyboards and mice for you ... :-)
The Mac has gained marketshare in the past few years - from 3.25% in 2004 to 8% in 2008 (impressive) - http://techspotlight.today.com/2009/01/02/2008-pc-vs-mac-market-share-roundup/
But, the Mac marketshare has been decreasing over the last 12 months - it is ironic to me that the marketshare is decreasing during the ongoing Mac versus PC marketing campaign from Apple. Maybe it is time for Apple to sell its value instead of attacking PCs.
1st quarter 2009 - Mac market share drops from 7.5 to 7.4 year over year - http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/04/15/apples_share_of_u_s_pc_market_slips_to_7_4_as_sales_decline.html
Mac market share in May 2009 drops 3% while PC share increases 12% year over year - http://www.boygeniusreport.com/2009/06/16/mac-market-share-drops-in-may-apple-revenue-share-up/
How can Mac slip 3% and PC's share increase 12%?
Gawd, the number is SHIPMENT ACCOUNT not the MARKET SHARE!
There is a certain irony between your user name & your inaccurate comment.
- by daniels47 July 1, 2009 4:01 PM PDT
- First Apple started using Intel processors. As they gain experience when will Apple tweak its software so that it will run on any PC. That's where the real growth will come and what Microsoft is hoping will not happen.
- Like this Reply to this comment
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