iPhone 3G S hits stores Friday: Will the crowds follow?

iPhone 3G buyers line up on launch day last year.

(Credit: James Martin/CNET)

Despite the intense amount of interest in Apple's third-generation iPhone, this Friday's launch of the device may not bring out the hordes of Apple fans like it has in years past.

The first days that the original iPhone was on sale in June 2007 (and the iPhone 3G last July), lines at Apple and AT&T stores across the country snaked around city blocks, filled with both newbies and Apple's most loyal customers anxious to be the first to get their hands on the much-anticipated smartphones. Some of the most ardent iPhone devotees camped overnight to be first in line. And, as a result, the launches were always accompanied by a media frenzy.

Things could be different this Friday for several reasons: Some current iPhone owners are being forced to wait to upgrade by their carrier; the hardware update isn't as dramatic as it has been in the past; and there's the possibility that the novelty of line-waiting has worn off.

AT&T's policy for current iPhone customers--which it altered slightly Wednesday--could be the biggest deterrent. AT&T customers whose contracts say they are eligible for a phone upgrade between now and September, and who pay at least $99 a month for iPhone service, will be able to buy the iPhone 3G S for the same price as a new AT&T customer: $199 for a 16GB model, or $299 for a 32GB model. But if you don't fall into either of those categories, you could be eligible for "early upgrade pricing" of $399 for a 16GB and $499 for a 32GB. The full price of the phone without signing a two-year contract is $599 and $699, respectively.

Will people camp out for the new iPhone as in years past?

(Credit: James Martin/CNET)

In other words, AT&T is making it prohibitively expensive for many customers who are in the habit of getting a new model iPhone every year. The reason makes sense--the carrier is subsidizing the cost of the new phone for those who sign contracts and doesn't want to do that every year--but it's likely to keep at least some of the most earnest and loyal iPhone customers away this Friday.

The other reason the crowds could be lighter this year is that the 3G S isn't nearly as big of a leap forward for Apple as in years past. (See CNET editor Kent German's full review.) The original iPhone was the single-most anticipated piece of consumer technology probably ever, and the iPhone 3G was a major upgrade in terms of hardware and network connection speed from the original iPhone.

The 3G S is faster and has better battery life, as well as some new features like video recording and voice control, but for many users it might not be as compelling an update. Plus, most of the features lacking in the iPhone and iPhone 3G can be corrected by downloading the new operating system, iPhone OS 3.0.

Another difference this year: Apple allowed customers to preorder the iPhone 3G S online for home delivery. Last year, customers were forced to go to an Apple or AT&T store to activate their phone.

Whether or not they come out in large numbers on Friday, it sounds like the process might be a bit more orderly this year. The iPhone 3G S will be available for purchase at Apple and AT&T stores starting at 7 a.m. on Friday. AT&T customers who preordered the device for in-store pickup can get their phones starting at 7 a.m. AT&T customers who didn't reserve one will have to wait until 9 a.m. The iPhone will be sold on a first come, first served basis at all Apple stores.

We'll be monitoring the launch in several different time zones on Friday as always, so be sure to come back here early Friday for the full run-down of the day's events.

[ibeetle]

There will be crowds at the bigger stores such as NYC and San Francisco However, the crowds will me measure in the 10's and maybe hundreds... not thousands.

Like Erica pointed out, because of pre-order availability this time most will be simply picking up not waiting in line.

However, the lack of crowds does not mean the phone is loosing its appeal. Because of home delivery and pre-order options AT&T has said the iPhone is pretty much a complete sell out on their end, and Apple is stating that supplies for those that did not reserve will be extremely limited, and in some cases not available at all.

[Sausagebiscuit]

I hope the iPhone loosens its appeal soon, it was way too tight to begin with.

[myles taylor]

@Sausagebiscuit What do you mean, it was way too tight? I think it would have lost it's appeal earlier if it was overhyped and wasn't as good as it was, especially on AT&T crappy network. Maybe it's just an awesome phone.

Whether with the 3G S, or the 3G, iPhone users have access to a wealth of very useful applications in the app store. Take <a href="http://www.shoofa.com">Shoofa DC</a> for example - it provides location based access to food and drink promotions in the Washington DC metro area, effectively saving residents and visitors tons of money.

[gil_4]

When the iPhone can put out a decent voice navigation system, that's when I'll consider it...until then forget it. Just because TomTom says it's working on an application doesn't mean it will be out any time soon. Telenav has been working on an iPhone voice navigation app for over 6 months - still no app. Tomtom announced the app but wouldn't answer when it would be out or the price. I won't consider it if it can't do what my phone has been doing well for the last two years...why bother?

[seven7dust]

@gill_4
Tom tom and telenav would be foolish to ignore the iphone's app store
cause it's by far the biggest, such a app will be gobbled up as soon as it launches !
the reason it took so long is because Apple only opened the API with OS 3.0

[hsi-online]

@seven7dust & @gil_4

TomTom has already announced their new application for the iPhone, along with a car kit. This was announced at the WWDC last week. Here's the link: http://iphone.tomtom.com/

So, gil_4 it looks like you'll be ready to consider it very soon.

I have the iPhone 3G. I ordered the 3G S on 6/10/2009. I paid the $499 early upgrade fee for the 32GB unit. Yes, to answer others, I received an email notification with tracking information via FedEx. Mine appears to be on a plane in Memphis on its way for delivery tomorrow.

[DanRobinson]

Too tight?

What were you trying to fit in it?

[wdowell]

I'm sorry, but just seeing Robert Scoble there, right at the front, makes me wince a bit! It's just sad that society has come to this..that we all clamour for a phone to the point that we go without proper sleep and water just "because"

[ibeetle]

Robert Scoble is an arrogant ass nobody who demanded he be allowed to write his own Wikipedia entry (which is nothing more than an ad for him and his blog)

I gave up on the "just because" long before the iPhone; when I saw 32 year old hot moms and 58 year old grandmothers driving Hummers and Suburbans. Not because they liked to go camping or off-roading. Not because they have a dozen kids to haul around, but "just because".

[mikeboulton]

No thanks!
Here in Canada you have to go with Rogers and you HAVE to sign a 3 year contract.

So a BIG no thanks!

[usualsuspect87]

did anyone get a ship notification for their pre-order yet today? i'm getting anxious!!!

[myles taylor]

Out for delivery according to UPS. It's going to the AT&T store though...

[Seaspray0]

@myles tayor. Even though you preordered, I"m betting that you go wait in a line anyway, wearing an apple tshirt and ballcap, singing apple campfire songs... I can't see you missing the chance to feel all warm and fuzzy being surrounded by others in the cult.

[myles taylor]

Actually, it's one of my coworkers and he's just keeping us updated. I'm keeping my 3G. And I've never waiting in line for an Apple anything, FYI, nor do I have an Apple T-Shirt, etc. What's with the hate?

[Jatajo22]

I got a shipment notification this morning. Estimated to deliver by tomorrow 6/19/09 at 3:00 and no later than 6/22/09. I would like to have it on release day, but not a huge deal, Monday is fine. Oh and as far as Everlovin G's 6/18/09 delivery date...not likely. Lots of people got estimated dates earlier than 6/19, but I would bet money Apple is not letting anyone recieve this thing b4 the release date. (Which is why they have called for a hold on shipments that would have arrived earlier.) One last note...why would anyone camp out or even wait in an extremely long line for that matter? Ok when you couldnt get it delivered to your home that was one thing (I would still never do it, but w/e). But you mean to tell me people would CHOOSE to wait for 3 hours? Thats just crazy. For those people who did not choose free home/office delivery....why not???

[weegg]

Sort of dwarfs the Palm Pre release.

[sythara]

Palm Pre is used by professionals who need a smart phone for business, iPhone is used by amateurs who like shiny stuff, and apple cult people.

[seven7dust]

@sythara
Lol!
you mean the phone that was voted as the best Business
smartphone by J.D power for 2 yrs running...

plus palm pre cant copy and paste properly and has problems with exchange
good luck convincing professional people to use it
I like the palm pre like the next guy {sweet phone] but it's very similar to the iphone
a lot of the UI design was borrowed from the iPhone actually

[myles taylor]

I agree the crowds won't be as prominent as they were in the past. They'll still be significant though, compared other phone launches. After-all, it's the iPhone. ;) No one wants to wait for it. I wrote a blog last year how people need to let a little patience into their lives when it comes to tech..by little I mean a couple days.

[jshaddle]

not a big enough change for me. no thanks for the 3GS from me.

[Vegaman_Dan]

As of 7 AM this morning on my commute which takes me by one store- no line yet and we're less than 24 hours away.

Dunno what to make of that.

[Seaspray0]

That would depend. Did you notice the store on the last release? A historical reference on whether that store has had a line in the past would help make more sense of what you saw.

[Vegaman_Dan]

@Seaspray0:

Last year this same store had perhaps 10-15 waiting for the store to open, then nothing after that. Now the stores inside a popular local mall might be different- that's covered and there's food nearby. Parking your butt outside in the Seattle rain otherwise isn't exactly thrilling.

[topgunb2]

there's no shortage of idiots in the world, you try finding one and you find millions of them

[Vegaman_Dan]

Drove by the store on the way home- as of 7 PM, still nobody in line. News stories online seem to indicate there are minor token lines but only at the flagship high visibility locations. That suggests that those people are there to be seen, not really for much else.

I don't see people in the comments here all clamoring to be in line either. Oh well.

[sting7k]

Count me as one who lined up the first 2 times but is not this time. I have nothing against AT&T and their upgrade policy, doesn't bother me. Saving my upgrade for the 'real' new iPhone next year. Can't wait to see the crying then at all the early upgraders and iPhone 3GS overs when they see a high res. screen, even better camera, maybe even an OLED screen with front facing camera. Who knows? My iPhone 3G with 3.0 performs noticably better and still works just fine.

[Seaspray0]

Waiting did pay off for those who bought the original. It payed off $200 when the price was dropped shortly after the release.

[Everlovin G]

TO: Ms. Ogg
RE: "...Apple's most loyal customers..."

Do I understand you correctly? Based on what you have written, am I to discern that, other than "newbies," _only_ the most loyal Apple® customers waited in line to buy iPhones on the occasions mentioned? What about moderate Apple customers? Hey, what about casual Apple customers?

The continual use of Apple vs. Microsoft-polarizing language used by CNET, and I quote, ahem, "News reporters," always fails to impress.

TO: usualsuspect87 - Yes, I received Shipment Notification today, 6.28.09.

[Everlovin G]

Sorry, usualsuspect87, that's 6.18.09.

[usualsuspect87]

damn, still no notification for me... i ordered mine the 10th, so it according to reports i've seen it's only those that ordered the 12th and later that get the shaft... hopefully that is truly the case.

[Everlovin G]

To: usualsuspect87

As a point of reference for you, I placed my order on 6.8.09.

[arbrackin]

YES I WILL BE!! ILL BE LINING UP AND ME AND MY 3 FRIENDS ALL WILL BE

[sythara]

I sometimes feel sad for our society and where we've ended up

[Synthmeister]

No reason to wait in line or get excited. Just order the thing from Apple directly. They only expect to sell 500,000 to 700, 000 the first weekend.

Palm did at least 1/10th of that it's opening weekend.

And AT&T backed off a bit from the steep upgrade pricing?

"We?re now pleased to offer our iPhone 3G customers who are upgrade eligible in July, August or September 2009 our best upgrade pricing, beginning Thursday, June 18."

[ralfthedog]

Many people don't understand this upgrade. This upgrade is not about new features out of the box, this is about applications. The 3GS not only has more memory and a faster processor, it also has a magnetometer that can be used for more things than just, "What direction is North?"

Many new applications will hit the market that only run on an S class iPhone. Many other new applications will run in a "Diminished functionality mode" when running on a non S phone.

[sythara]

How convenient for Apple who will reap the profits from all those evil anti corperate san fransisco type crowds... who love apple.

Force you to upgrade to keep up with crap released.... sounds like snow leopard strategy

[jtaylor475]

Tents? What is this, Star Wars: Repulsed by the iPhone?

Look, I own one of these babies, and LOVE it. I LOVE IT!

It's the best phone I've ever had.

But camping out in front of the Apple store so you can get the first one - that's just idiotic. Now I know what popular fetishism means.

[sythara]

Absolutely. iPhone/ipod touch are awesome products. But the fanatisism of the cult just baffles my mind.

[ddanckaert]

I have an AT&T family plan. I bought 2 of the original iPhones. Last July, I dutifully upgraded hardware of both of them to the 3G (at the same time). Now, AT&T is offering me the $299 price on a 32GB 3G S for one phone while I would have to pay $499 for the other 32GB 3G S--until December. I called AT&T and they said the preference was handed out based on revenue generation. In other words, the core account on the family plan generates sufficient revenue, while the other does not. What nonsense.

Considering that AT&T has had crappy reception for me for years, and I live in Montgomery County MD (suburb of DC) in a heavily populated area (Mid County Highway and Woodfield Rd). (Tmobile, Sprint, and Verizon have fine reception) The only thing keeping me on AT&T is the iPhone. This upgrade inconsistency essentially guarantees that I will wait for Verizon to get the iPhone.

[ralfthedog]

ddanckaert, If you get bad reception where you live, you might try turning off 3G. The 3GS may also get better reception. I will be getting a 3GS for development tomorrow. I will post back here if it get's better reception than the 3G.

Note: I only have one place where I don't get full bars on 3G. Unfortunately it is my house.

[The_happy_switcher]

I pre-ordered through Apple and will pick up after work tomorrow. I didn't buy the 3G so my phone is now 'old' at 2 years--lol. Sure I could wait until 2010 but for me the upgrade is very compelling and besides I'm a shareholder who wants to support the company.

[sythara]

I thought a shareholder wants others to support the company while you make profits from the others....

Well at least thats what I want... as a shareholder of Apple :-)

[IWantItNowPleaze]

I would be in line at the nearest Apple Store at 7AM.....if I wasn't locked into crummy Sprint. I fricken HATE my Treo. There is no way I am going to the Palm Pre if it takes nearly two minutes to boot (See the CNET prizefight video comparing the 3GS versus the Palm Pre).

[dndgirl]

Somewhat selfishly, I hope the lines are shorter this year. The SF store opens at 7:00 for folks with reservations (like me) and I really need to be in and out before 8:30 - make that 8:15 - so I can get to my office and snag an onion bagel before they are all gone.

[dndgirl]

That was me! (Although I was waiting for my Verizon contract to end.) Since I stayed with the 1st gen iPhone, I can get the 32 gig for $299.

[headsetplus]

I read an article today in the S.J. Mercury news that Apple is waiting the expensive upgrade fee for users who bought the iphone3g when it first came out.

Maha
http://headsetplus.com