Apple tablet is coming, analyst says
This was originally published at ZDNet's Between the Lines.
Apple is likely to launch a tablet that's similar to the iPod Touch, but larger, in the first half of 2010, marking the company's entry into the Netbook race, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster says.
In a research note Thursday, Munster handicaps the gaps in Apple's product lineup. The gaping hole: there's nothing between the iPod Touch and the MacBook. Enter this iPod Touch on steroids for $500 to $700.
Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook called Netbooks junky, but he never dismissed the consumer demand for them.
Munster writes:
Between indications from our component contacts in Asia, recent patents relating to multi-touch sensitivity for more complex computing devices, comments from Tim Cook on the April 22nd conference call, and Apple's acquisition of P.A. Semi along with other recent chip-related hires, it is increasingly clear that Apple is investing more in its mobile computing franchise.Specifically, we expect this to result in a larger (7-inch - 10-inch) touchscreen tablet that will launch in 1H CY10. Additionally, Apple's consistent message that it refuses to launch a "cheap" portable netbook, and its desire to differentiate itself in a maturing market before it's too late (similar to the timing of iPod and iPhone), plus its gradual addition of multi-touch technology to all of its core products (iPhones, iPods and Macs) leads us to conclude this product will be a touchscreen tablet (not a netbook).
Apple's game plan will revolve around its multitouch patents to cook up something different from your generic Netbook. Munster's theory makes a lot of sense. A Netbook would tarnish the Mac's average selling price and potentially cheapen the Apple brand. A tablet wouldn't. Double bonus: a Mac tablet would compete with Amazon.com's Kindle e-book reader.
What's the OS look like? Munster has an answer for that too:
We are anticipating a new category of Apple products with an operating system more robust than the iPhone's but optimized for multi-touch, unlike Mac OS X. The device's OS could bear a close resemblance to Apple's mobile OS and run App Store apps, or it could be a modified version of Mac OS X. We expect the development of such an OS to be underway currently, but its complexity, along with our conversations with a key company in the mobile space, leads us to believe it will not launch until CY10.
Is Apple too late to the game? Not really. Apple was late with the iPod, and we saw how that turned out. Ditto for the iPhone, which came five years after the first BlackBerry. Relatively speaking, Apple's Netbook killer would be a fast follow.
Here's a closer look at Munster's argument for a Mac tablet and not a Netbook:
Why Not A Netbook?• A low-cost netbook would serve to cheapen the Mac brand and lowers Mac ASPs (average selling price).
• A netbook with OS X on it would cannibalize MacBook sales, offering a new portable with OS X for a lower entry price. Apple could curb this effect by offering a slimmed down version of OS X without the iLife suite pre-installed, but we see this as unlikely, as its fully-featured approach, particularly with iLife and digital media, is a core selling point for the Mac brand.
• Perhaps most importantly, a netbook would not differentiate Apple's product from other netbooks entering the market, and as we have seen with the iPod and the iPhone, Apple prefers to enter a market once they can offer a significantly differentiated and often premium version of the product.
Why A Tablet?
• Component contacts in Asia suggesting there are no prototypes, but discussions about required components are underway.
• Recent patents relating to multi-touch sensitivity for more complex computing devices.
• Apple's acquisition of P.A. Semi along with other recent chip-related hires leads us to believe that Apple is investigating making its own chip for non-Mac mobile devices. We presuppose that Apple is content with its relationship with Intel, and decision to move the Mac platform to Intel based processors. We think the recent activity related to chips has more to do with development of a mobile device.
• Comments from Tim Cook on the April 22nd Conference Call. See quote below.
"Well, you know, for us, it is about doing great products. And when I look at what is being sold in the netbook space today, I see cramped keyboards, terrible software, junky hardware. Very small screens. And just not a consumer experience, and not something that we would put the Mac brand on, quite frankly. And so, it is not a space as it exists today, that we're interested in. Nor do we believe that customers in the long-term would be interested in. It is a segment we would choose not to play in.
"That said, we do look at the space and are interested to see how customers respond to it. People that want a small computer, so to speak, that does browsing and e-mail might want to buy an iPod Touch or they might want to buy an iPhone. So, we have other products to accomplish some of what people are buying netbooks for. So, in that particular way, we play on an indirect basis. Then, of course, if we find a way where we can deliver an innovative product that really makes a contribution, then we'll do that. We have some interesting ideas in the space."
Larry Dignan is editor in chief of ZDNet and editorial director of CNET's TechRepublic. He has covered the technology and financial-services industries since 1995. 
You have to love the Tim Cook comment: "junky hardware". Helloooo, same hardware you use! Credibility=zero. Oh wait, you say he is referring to the wrapper. The pretty chrome, plastics, and aluminum. Sorry but that's not the hardware.
"Nor do we believe that customers in the long-term would be interested in." Hello, try checking the sales stats. Netbooks are flying off the shelves, and we all know there not Macs, because you don't have any!
"We have some interesting ideas in the space", yeah a netbook (tablet as you refer to it) that fly's in the face of everything Apple has been saying about this category of PC.
I just spent my lunch hour at BestBuy checking out netbooks from Dell, HP, Asus, etc. Junky hardware sums up what I saw pretty well.
They have to make them cheap in order to sell them for $300 - 500, especially when you consider they have to give Microsoft about 10% of the retail price.
ASUS made Apple's computers for a while
the MacBook I think
Price point of under $999 puts it under the iBook. That means no matter how great it is, its features cannot exceed that of the entry level notebook or you will cannibalize your notebook sales.
Keyboards- the Touch gets away with a virtual keyboard because you can hold it in one hand and still do entry with it. Make the unit larger or between the size of a PDA and a notebook and it becomes too awkward to hold with one hand and type with a finger on a virtual keyboard. You'll need to set it down if you are going to do anything with it beyond menu options. Adding a real keyboard immediately places it into the netbook market, at which point it is too high compared to other offerings and again will affect entry level Macintosh notebook sales.
Portability. A Touch is small enough to fit in your pocket- I should know as I have one in my pocket right now that I love. But a netbook is too big to do that. Even something the size of a paperback novel is too big to fit in a pocket, so a netbook sized Touch would have to be something you carry loose with you. That puts it into the netbook/notebook category, or into the media player class like portable DVD players with screen. Too big to be portable, too small to be useful.
It's a tricky area to be in. If Apple wanted to redo the Touch as a netbook, they would have to lower that price a lot to be competitive for the features it may offer. But then again, as long as it has an Apple logo on it, it may sell to people who don't care about anything other than that logo. Hard to say how that will play out.
Ebook reader. This could be a good one to consider. The Kindle, against all possible logic to me, is successful. Heck, the e-ink feature alone is awesome. I don't know that a full color OLED screen is going to be as easy on the eyes for reading as e-ink which is passive. I don't like reading on glowing screens, the refresh rate and slight movement of your hand does funky things to your eyes and it's hard to concentrate on what you are reading. A book is passive and much more forgiving and that's where e-ink shines. I don't see the Apple tablet would really do well here unless it could undercut the price from Sony and Amazon.
Overall, the Applet (Apple Tablet) might be an area to look at for Apple. There's no denying the huge popularity this market has enjoyed and ignoring it means ignoring the potential money to be made. Make a device cheap enough to get people used to the OS and you might get them on board to buy more expensive computers. I think the product must have an OS environment that matches the desktop OS and not the iPhone/Touch though.
Apple may surprise, but I don't think that they'll be able to match the price of Apple's rivals. Some people may be willing to pay more for an Apple Netbook, but I doubt most people will.
It's a tricky line to toe.
I love the Apple marketing team!
I love the Apple marketing team!"
Apple (or it's marketing) hasn't done anything public yet, this is from an analyst. At least wait for them to even announce the thing (if it really exists, there has been Apple tablet rumors for like 5 years now) before commencing bashing.
The iPhone OS _IS_ a modified version of OS X. And you really expect us to believe ANYTHING you have to say when you don't have a grasp of the most basic factors in the devices. Just go away and keep your stupid ANAList mouths shut. You're no better than a palm reader. You should all be convicted for fraud and stock price manipulation.
From what I've read long term, they do not want to be in the hardware business. They released the Kindle because there is nothing else out there that does what they wanted the Kindle to do. If tablets along the lines of the Apple tablet become ubiquitous, Amazon will just move to a software e-reader. Amazon will make more money if they are doing software only...
If they change this, then enterprises may take another look at them. Until then, they will likely stick with PC's running Windows or Linux. A tablet version running an OS in an unsecured root level would be a nightmare for any enterprise, which is what the iPhone and Touch are currently doing.
Another issue here is that Apple's been here before: the Newton. Jobs really disliked the Newton, I believe, but none-the-less Apple has been in that paperback-book-sized arena before, which I think gives them some perspective. COmbining that with their experience at the iPhone/Touch size and multi-touch interface and they've got a LOT more experience to bring to the table than others.
(Actually, the Newton was a good machine. It suffered mainly from being ahead of its time, and from a psychological issue: if a machine can't read my handwriting -- unless I'm writing so sloppily that even I can't read it -- it's the machine's fault. If I enter something incorrect on a keyboard -- unless it's an abomination design-wise -- it's my fault. That plus a stylus is rather a pain for many uses.)
This has nothing to do with netbooks. If Apple wants a netbook, they can sell that 13" macbook for $600 and they'd do huge volumes. I think they're great devices but way over priced.
Instead, Apple will be the first to come to market with a well designed device, that will probably be overpriced, but will still be much nicer looking than any Windows tablet ever designed.
I really hope Apple does something like this. I need something small, light and mobile that is bigger than my iPhone and smaller than my Macbook Pro, and cheaper than a Macbook Air.
People love to talk about reinventing the netbook space and Apple's success with iPhone/iPod Touch but they don't stop to think about usability on a larger tablet style machine. It would be impossible to use.
Further, some have speculated that it would be a great device to use as an ebook reader. But the idea of that is even more absurd. People don't want to read books on a back-lit screen. That's why epaper and eink was invented. Reading a book on the iPhone is painful at best. Reading a book on a computer is even worse. Ebook reading on this kind of device is simply out of the question.
And why would Apple make a device that is like the iPhone, but bigger? That doesn't make any sense. If you want a "tablet", get an iPod Touch or an iPhone. You want a laptop, get a Macbook. Apple has no reason to dip into the netbook market. Intel and the netbook OEMs hate netbooks. They either make so little money on them or the loose money on them outright. They're cannibalizing the notebook market and doing so at the expense of profit. From a business standpoint, I honestly don't understand why netbooks are sill even being sold. Consumer demand is one thing, but companies don't care about consumer demand, they care about profit.
There is no market for a tablet. Even notebook sized tablets are considered absurd. No one uses them and no one wants them. And a tiny tablet would be even worse. Without a keyboard and trackpad, a 7-10 inch device would be completely unusable.
I would definitely be one of the first one to buy it even though I have an Ipod touch and another netbook.
People like you (willing to pay $800-$1000 for an unknown device when there are similar or better devices for $500) would buy a turd if it had an Apple logo.
- by Dan7637 May 23, 2009 7:57 PM PDT
- you people that say crapple and you cant customize it and then cant use half the hardware thats more stupid than paris hilton and thats saying something
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(33 Comments)just go to the cheapskate blog if youre going to be hating just cause it costs more