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February 4, 2009 10:54 AM PST

Survey: Demand for Apple notebooks declining

by Tom Krazit
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Could falling demand for Apple notebooks be offset by an Apple Netbook?

(Credit: CNET)

Apple's Mac division was able to withstand recessionary pressures last quarter by neutralizing a decline in desktop sales with a sharp rise in notebook sales. Will it continue?

A new survey released by ChangeWave Wednesday makes it clear that despite a relatively strong first quarter, Apple is not out of the woods yet. Of respondents planning to buy a notebook in the next 90 days, the percentage of those planning to buy an Apple notebook fell six percentage points to 28 percent, as compared with November's survey.

The overall percentage of respondents planning to buy a notebook fell from 8 percent in November to 6 percent, so it's not just Apple that's feeling the pinch. And consumer electronics spending is on the wane as well, with the percentage of those planning to spend more on consumer tech over the next 90 days falling to a two-and-a-half-year low.

But Changewave says that decline is being partially offset by an increase in demand for Netbooks, a category where Apple is taking a wait-and-see approach. The research firm concludes its report by opining that Apple could be in trouble without a Netbook, because the PC market is growing increasingly price-sensitive as the recession takes hold.

Whether or not you agree with that conclusion probably depends on how you look at the market: Netbooks are growing, but they are low-margin devices that aren't going to do much to help your bottom line. If you increase unit sales at the expense of profits, you're not necessarily better off: you'll get some revenue that might have otherwise gone to a competitor with a more price-conscious offering, but will investors tolerate a decline in gross margin?

Apple's notebook sales are growing faster than the market without a Netbook, at 34 percent year-over-year compared with IDC's estimate of 20 percent for the entire market, although some of that might have been pent-up demand for the redesigned notebooks introduced in October. Netbook shipments are expected to double next year, but just 10 million were sold in 2008, while Apple sold 6.4 million MacBooks and MacBook Pros in calendar 2008.

Apple's real problem has been the plunging interest in its iMac lineup over the last several months; it has actually been falling faster than the market. The company appears ready to upgrade that product line in the next few months, and that appears to have registered with some of Changewave's respondents: among those planning to buy a desktop in the next 90 days, 28 percent said they plan to buy a Mac, up slightly from 27 percent in November.

Tom Krazit writes about the ever-expanding world of Internet search, including Google, Yahoo, online advertising, and portals, as well as the evolution of mobile computing. He has written about traditional PC companies, chip manufacturers, and mobile computers, spending the last three years covering Apple. E-mail Tom.
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by seven7dust February 4, 2009 11:15 AM PST
yes Apple needs a netbook !
even die-hard Mac users r buying netbooks as secondary computers
and the Macbook Air will always be niche product
Apple can claim the Iphone to be a netbook all they want
until it runs a desktop OS it will never be
and plus the Iphone still needs a lot of Basic features
than every other phone has !{thats a whole new topic altogether}
Apple's arrogance is always going to be a hinderance
Remember Apple were all in a recession right now !
Reply to this comment
by Perry_Clease February 4, 2009 12:09 PM PST
Stay off of the "dust."
by Waveblade February 4, 2009 11:23 AM PST
In my opinion, people will be buying their Apple notebooks right after their release rather than months after *shrugs*
Reply to this comment
by ddhboy February 4, 2009 11:36 AM PST
I'm planning on buying my mom a mac when either
A) Apple releases a netbook macbook
B) The Mac Mini finally gets refreshed

I'd prefer the netbook since I wouldn't have to go and buy a monitor, keyboard a mouse for her, otherwise I'd send her to Ubuntu on someone else's netbook, like dell or samsung or something.
Reply to this comment
by humanssssss February 4, 2009 11:45 AM PST
Apple makes crappy notebook. After some time of use, you will get a fsck ... what the heck is that!?!!

The damn notebook stop working. I guessed Apple engineered this to last a less than a year and consumer would forget about its inherent shortfall, finally, this is coming to light. And it's evident the demand is slowing or stop because the problem is now transparent.

It's like a sales guy hyping up his product so you buy. Then after you use it, the utility falls percipitately downward. Subsequent consumers know the defect and avoid it like a plague. That's what Apple product is. The hype is OVER.
Reply to this comment
by seven7dust February 4, 2009 12:26 PM PST
yes this is why they have the highest customer satisfaction rate in the industry !
and also why they win so many design awards
and why PC makers always copy their style !
also why MAcs have a super high re-sale value !
should I go on....
by Pishkado February 4, 2009 12:43 PM PST
Didn't anyone ever teach you about the dangers of generalizing from a sample size of one? Every vendor of anything has customers who had a bad experience - even Lexus. The objective fact is that large-scale surveys put Macs at the top of the heap in terms of reliability and longevity, well ahead of any Windows notebooks. I'm not saying Apple is perfect, I'm sorry you got a lemon, but to go from there to what you posted is a huge stretch that ignores the facts.
by nickh2 February 4, 2009 2:13 PM PST
FSCK = File system check. It happens every time you boot and shutdown. It is not something terrible or wrong it is normal.

Stop moaning, bandying terms around that you obviously do not understand and describe exactly the problem you are experiencing.

Even better, go to the Apple Support site here: http://discussions.apple.com/index.jspa
Sign up and post your issues. You will have a solution within minutes.
by MaggieRed February 4, 2009 2:57 PM PST
Idiot
by rcharles67 February 4, 2009 3:04 PM PST
Well, I am not an Apple Fan Boy, but I have made the switch to a MacBook 3yrs now and I have not had any problems with the laptop at all. It's unfortunate that some got saddled with Bad MacBooks.
by nonbiasreviewer February 4, 2009 11:45 AM PST
Apple will not be creating a netbook anytime soon. Apple's market strategy is based on innovation. Netbooks are inferior, clunky and unrealistic computers. An iphone is more superior to any netbook. you can do everything you could do on any netbook including word processing, excell spreadsheets and PowerPoint presentations. Plus you wont look like a total, cheap, tool when your using it.
Reply to this comment
by pjhenry1216 February 4, 2009 12:40 PM PST
You can't copy & paste. You can't run more than one program. You can't run flash. You can install any third party app you'd like. Need I go on about what a netbook can do and an iPhone can't do?
by seven7dust February 4, 2009 12:49 PM PST
yes a iphone style device will be superior to a netbook
but it will need a X86 processor also it should have a bigger screen
and should use a desktop class O.S like 'leopard or tiger'
also all netbooks r not as bad/cheap as you claim
the Hp mini is a pretty good ultra-portable laptop
it has a decent keyboard and touchpad but the only problem is it runs windows
Imagine if HP can make a decent Netbook, Apple surely can do it too !
by tcr071 February 4, 2009 4:48 PM PST
I am sorry but the iPhone in its current state can't even come CLOSE to competing with a netbook. You can't do any word processing at all on it. As the phone matures and gets more powerful it might evolve into a device with the capabilities similar to a netbook but even at that time a small virtual keyboard is just unrealistic for hacking out documents.
by krioni--2008 February 4, 2009 12:01 PM PST
Re: humanssssss

Your comment was a confusing, semi-literate rant. It appears that you are claiming personal experience with a Mac notebook that died before the one-year warranty was up. Did you get it fixed/replaced? If Apple is as evil as you seem to claim, they'd be stupid to have "engineered this to last less than a year" and then offer a one year warranty.

Also, your comment value is worthless on other than faulty logical grounds. It doesn't sound as though you've done some kind of scientific survey of Mac notebooks to compare their quality to the overall market.

The final paragraph of your comment is an inarticulate mess. I'm not sure how the "utility" changes after you purchase it. Do parts fall off? Does the operating system stop allowing you to write inarticulate rants like this?

Most of the other comments were reasonable. Yours was not.
Reply to this comment
by Perry_Clease February 4, 2009 12:11 PM PST
He is one of our regular trolls.
by tcr071 February 4, 2009 12:30 PM PST
Apple is overpriced. In an economy where money is short Apple fans might choose to save $500 and buy a cheap notebook instead of a Macbook. Nature of the beast. I'm sure BMW is seeing a worse decline in sales than Honda is. How a recession works.
Reply to this comment
by seven7dust February 4, 2009 2:12 PM PST
Actually it works the other way around !
in a recession high end cars and luxury goods aren't much affected
while low end commodity items will be !
Apple's problem is netbooks not price

BTW! plzz stop using the word overpriced
Expensive and overpriced r entirely different things !
by JREwing78 February 4, 2009 3:07 PM PST
My old iBook died last week and I bought a $500 Dell Mini 12 instead. I just couldn't justify the extra cash for a MacBook, especially the low end one, when all I need is an internet surfer and typing machine for when I don't want to work in front of my iMac at home.

It broke my heart to not buy an Apple, but I just couldn't afford one this time around.
by tcr071 February 4, 2009 4:42 PM PST
seven-

You obviously have no idea what you are talking about because you just contradicted yourself with your own statement. "Apple's problem is not price it is netbooks." Umm... have you any clue why people are jumping all over netbooks? Could it possibly be because the average netbook is $300???

I use the word overpriced because that is exactly what Apple products are, overpriced. With a margin of 34% (pure profit) I can't think of any word to use besides it. I don't know why people get so offensive when I claim Apple products are overpriced. I'm not calling them crappy products (they aren't, not close) merely overpriced products. I own an iPhone for Petes Sake.
by seven7dust February 4, 2009 5:16 PM PST
@tcr071
yes apple's products have high margin
but that doesn't mean they r overpriced
people want problem free products and r willing to pay extra for it
plus all the software that ships makes up for the cost
and when you count resale value it's actually cheaper sometimes to buy a MAC
BTW I wasn't being offensive just giving out my opinion on the subject

obviously they r certain items where the cost can't be justified
for eg-: monitors and ram {these I agree r overpriced}
but their core products r in fact competitively priced IMO

as far as netbooks go,
yes netbooks r cheap but thats not the only reason they r selling
netbooks r essentially companion products for many
and they also sell because of their size and weight
it's wrong to say netbooks sell only on price !
by nwojciak February 4, 2009 12:40 PM PST
A apple netbook would be great but I really can't see how aple would be able to do it without putting strain on it's macbook line. If apple did come out with a net book it would not be as cheap as other brands (you do pay for quality with apple) so it would kinda defeat the point of a netbook (600-700 dollars for a netbook, no thank you) especially when you can buy a macbook air with a dual core proccessor for $999 refurb from apple or a macbook white for the same amount. I really think apple should look into lowing the macbook price, nothing crazy but drop the alumminum macbook to $999 or $1099, and the macbook pro to $1500- $1600 to boost sales. I much pay a little extra for a 13 inch macbook (which i consider very portable) rather then an underpowered 10 inch netbook that apple threw together just so people could get a netbook with the apple name. I really would not wan to pay for a premium price apple netbook (don't get me wrong, i am a huge netbook fan though)
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by pjhenry1216 February 4, 2009 12:47 PM PST
Personally, I think there's a big shift to portability. Not just in weight or thickness, but just pure size. People want a computer on them at all times now. Also, they want something that will last a long time. The upcoming Eee PC 1000HE is touting an amazing 9 hours of battery life (yea, estimated times are always higher in the specs than the real world, but the real world battery life will probably even beat listed battery life on macbook specs or any other laptop for that matter). Also, the iPhone is *NOT* a netbook. You can't install non-approved third party apps, you can't copy & paste (something i don't actually miss on an iphone but would miss on a netbook or any other computer for that matter), you can't run more than one app at a time, so on and so forth. It lacks way too many features to be considered a netbook. Its also just simply too small for a netbook and typing on it is a pain in my ass (i've had my iphone 3g since august and the typing still pisses me off at times). You also can't (relatively safely at least) install your choice of OS onto the iPhone either. Its just too closed and proprietary to even consider as desktop OS. Its way too controlled by Apple and not by the user.

I want a Eee pc 1000HE when it comes out. I wish the prices were a little lower, but whatever. Portability per dollar is starting to win out over power per dollar.
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by fat-danny February 4, 2009 3:25 PM PST
Well maybe the fact that Apple removed FW400 from the new MBP was probably not the best move either. I know I personally shopped for the recently discontinued MBP after realizing the lack of FW400.
Weak Sauce.
Reply to this comment
by nickh2 February 4, 2009 3:35 PM PST
Problem solved with a $10 FireWire 800 to 400 adapter.
by daedbird February 4, 2009 3:28 PM PST
My prediction is Apple creates a new netbook (still calling it the Applet) when P.A. Semiconductor can build a chip that could run it effectively. This chip will be dropped into an iPhone, Touch, and they just wrap a bigger screen around it, with a keyboard. People will complain that its a glorified iPhone, only with QWERTY and copy/paste, then snap it up in droves. THe problem is it will need to be able to run programs sold in the App store, which means getting vendors on board, and getting P.A. to build an energy efficient, powerful chip, one that also allows Apple to increase their margins because they will own the chip as well. They will not build it around an Ion processor, and they will want it to have an SSD. Plus, Intel wil have to be able to create a more powerful chip for the Air OR that same P.A. chip can be supersized to run the Air. Either way, not gong to happen until WWDC 2010
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by nonbiasreviewer February 5, 2009 9:42 AM PST
Netbook better than iphone? You obviously do not own one. I can copy and paste just fine. I can do alot of things just fine on my iphone. Daedbird is absolutely right about apple's netbook answer. Apple just secured a new patent that appears to be an ipod touch that is twice it's size with a beutiful touch screen keyboard. Looks like apple's awnser to the netbook is a larger, more efficient iphone (like) device. Apple also recently secured a new battery/charging technology. Innovation, not cheap throw away, is apple's strategy. My iphone is a portable computer, and exactly what programs do you need to run on your netbook. Im definately not going to be playing any games, designing graphics or using final cut on any 9 inch netbook screen.
Netbooks are cheap throw away computers, they are ugly and inefficient, the keyboards are made for children. I would much rather pack an iphone in my pocket than a giant chunk of plastic with a giant power cord. It is a phone as well so now i don't need a netbook and a phone.
As I said before, apple is about innovation not price. Apple's target market is not netbook buyers. As soon as apple begins competing on price with acer and hp it looses it's largest customer base. Apple's will always be overpriced because that is part of their strategy. Economic hard times do not effect Apples largest demographics computer purchases.
Reply to this comment
by nonbiasreviewer February 5, 2009 9:57 AM PST
Who are you people and why are you wasting your time debating this subject. I am appalled with the lack of credible information in this thread. Most of you are speaking strait out of your ass. Do some serious research before you start typing crap that is not even valid. Listing statistics and percentages like they mean something. If companies worked this way America would be in a much worse situation than it currently is. If you don't like apple then don't like apple. If you do then why would you want these losers using macs. When I was in my masters degree program I was a huge apple advocate. Then all of a sudden everyone was using macs and it was terrible. Some people just do not understand or need the features of apple computers. Think of apple as a huge tech secret and keep it that way. And for those complaining about price, boo ******* hoo! go get a job.
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by lkrupp February 8, 2009 6:22 PM PST
There's something about Apple that gets the pc crowd all itchy in their tighty-whities. Whenever there's an Apple piece on C|net they come out of the woodwork. If Apple was really as irrelevant and useless as they say there would be no reason to get all frothy like they do.
by 6cm February 8, 2009 9:49 PM PST
Apple note books are a market premium product, but without a seemingly non crucial option of a bluray player at again, a much higher point level (twice + as expensive as competition). What Apple really needs is a new, scaled down Mac Pro (smaller foot print, fewer bays, etc) at about the iMac price point minus the display. Mini, nor the iMac will not drive the 30 inch screen and the Mini is not modular enough. If the economic climate will continue, and it looks as it will, Apple should revise its pricing politics. What Mac should really introduce for its affluent Macbook Pro and Air customer base is a reliable megapixel IP camera line up including a PTZ model! We have had enough of the iPhone, iTunes...time for a new cool product.
Reply to this comment
by gsmiller88 February 9, 2009 9:06 AM PST
If you want a netbook MacBook, buy the Air.
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