Mac at 25: What's next for Apple's Mac?
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Twenty-five years after the debut of the Macintosh, the product that is the soul of Apple is not necessarily its vehicle to the future.
It was a quarter-century ago that Super Bowl XVIII viewers saw the now-famous introductory ad for Apple's Macintosh, formally released two days later. Apple had announced back in 1983 that the Macintosh was coming, but for many, that Sunday was their first look at the product that would drive Apple to new heights in the personal computer industry and usher in the graphical user interface as the standard way for regular people to interact with their computers.
These days, Apple is in a very different place. The company sold ten times as many iPods and iPhones in its first fiscal quarter as it did Macs; and it was a great year for the Mac. CEO Steve Jobs was so aware of this transformation in recent years that he announced in January 2007 that Apple Computer was no more; it's Apple Inc. these days.
More and more, it seems the iPhone is the future of Apple. Or, at least, the cutting-edge technology inside Apple, the project that everybody wants to work on, and that competitors strive to emulate. So what does that mean for the Mac over the next quarter century?
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In all honesty, few of us know. Certainly it would have been difficult for most people in the late 1980s watching Michael Douglas in Wall Street talk into a "mobile" phone the size of Shaquille O'Neal's basketball shoe to envision using a sleek handheld phone with all the computing power of the PCs of the day, and then some.
But the Mac is still very much part of Apple's mission: it ends every press release with the stock paragraph declaring "Apple ignited the personal computer revolution in the 1970s with the Apple II and reinvented the personal computer in the 1980s with the Macintosh. Today, Apple continues to lead the industry in innovation with its award-winning computers, OS X operating system and iLife and professional applications."
So let's consider the near-term future of the Mac; say 5 to 10 years from today.
Hardware
One look at our gallery of Macs through the years is enough to demonstrate just how far the personal computing industry has come from the days of bulky plastic and tiny screens to products like the MacBook Air.
Desktop computers seem likely to get smaller and larger; smaller in that people will consider even a Mac Mini too big for their home electronics cabinet, and larger in that they will get assimilated into various other household gadgets, such as televisions or home security systems. The other trend that will eventually come to roost is the home server, which is not for the faint of heart at the moment but seems eventually destined for every home. Apple will have some answer to that market as it develops, and they probably won't call it a server.
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Smartphones like the iPhone are indeed all the rage, but they aren't going to displace notebook computers with real screens and real keyboards. Reasonable people can disagree on how big those screens and keyboards might be, but any real work or real entertainment will require something larger than a handheld gadget. The MacBook will continue to evolve with existing features like solid-state drives and multitouch gesture inputs joining science-fair projects like flexible displays and advanced voice-recognition technologies.
One of the main questions around the Mac in 2008 was whether or not Apple would bow to a coming recession by either cutting the price of its MacBooks or introducing a so-called Netbook. It's hard to imagine Apple fighting with its PC counterparts on the bargain shelves with the basic MacBook lineup, but if the cost of computing power continues to decline as performance flatlines, cost-cutting might happen on its own without poisoning Apple's margins. And few would be surprised to see Apple come out with its own take on the Netbook if the trend toward that style of computing keeps going, recent comments notwithstanding.
Software
There doesn't seem to be anyone able to step up and play third-fiddle to Microsoft and Apple in the personal computing operating system market within the next three to five years. These days, Linux development seems concentrated on the smartphone market, where it can be found at the heart of new products such as Google's Android, LiMo's software, and Palm's WebOS.
One of the strongest selling points for the Mac at present is the iLife suite, and it will be interesting to watch how Apple evolves that set of software. As the way we use computers evolves, Apple will need to tackle those new usage models in iLife: iPhoto, iMovie, and GarageBand will probably stick around, but iWeb and iDVD already seem like they could be replaced with more forward-looking products that help manage your home or car, for example.
Also, Apple will need to continue to improve the way its software works with the Internet, expanding on concepts like MobileMe. It's not hard to imagine the Mac of the future as a relatively thin client that does most of its work over a high-speed Internet connection, backed up by the aforementioned home server appliance that stores everything. Simplifying that kind of setup could be a huge part of iLife '12.
To be clear, these are all pretty safe evolutionary bets. That's sort of the point: the Mac is already a mature product, and over time it becomes harder to make revolutionary changes to products that have entrenched usage patterns.
That kind of action is happening in the mobile computing market, as the iPhone and iPod Touch turn into Apple's most influential products. Apple's recent decision to file for a trademark on the term "OS X," as distinct from Mac OS X, shows that in the future the company wants to draw an even clearer line between the Mac and the rest of its computers.
But what do you think? How will the Mac evolve over the next 25 years? Or is the Mac of the future today's iPhone? Please leave your suggestions below, and also check out the rest of our package on the 25th anniversary of the Mac, complete with reader stories, memories from the original Mac team, and pictures of Macs throughout the years.
Tom Krazit writes about the ever-expanding world of Internet search, including Google, Yahoo, online advertising, and portals, as well as the evolution of mobile computing. He has written about traditional PC companies, chip manufacturers, and mobile computers, spending the last three years covering Apple. E-mail Tom. 
Technology - amazing...
-Dr. Bob Lade
bringing back the PowerMac using PowerPC chips alongside Intel chips to run both Intel and PowerPC Mac code.
The Classic 9 inch screen Macintosh returns, can use external monitor as an option. Sells for $700 with an Intel chip and based on the Mac Mini. 9 inch monitor is color.
Al Gore works with Apple to help make all Mac models greener to fight global warming. The Green Apple logo is used on the Green Macs with a green plastic design.
Apple buys out Amiga, Inc. to merge AmigaOS with Mac OSX to make Mac OSXI.
Classic 9 inch Mac? Isn't that just a bulky netbook?
Green is good.
Amiga once had an advantage, but perhaps it is beyond the time to move ahead. (This was a good idea 20 years ago).
We are in the 21st century, aren't we?
I am waiting for another game change wow "Mac II" type from the two steves. The tool to free us from the man-machine struggle on going in daily more complex world (too many of them in the field... just look at the workers re-training course outline for future jobs... what a pain!).
Touch interface, 6" X 3" screen...........I want one, thanks Apple !
Thanks Steve, and get well brother : )
like an Iphone, with touch screen interface. Space Ghost would be jealous. LOL
That would be done, certainly, to free the OS from the Mac hardware, leaving it to be used on things like the iPhone (it is) and other 'future devices.' But, it does one other thing, too: it frees the OS to be released as an alternative to Windows 7 for PCs. Apple's PC share grew for two reasons. 1) Vista was/is a pig 2) OS X was that next gen fix people were looking for. They can't very well sit back and let Windows 7 come along, encouraging folks to go back to MS, or worse -- see '7' boot on Mac screens.
Look at what they've done, hardware-wise: they went to relatively standard PC hardware. So, why not approach Dell or Lenovo or someone else and say, "Look, fellas... we know you're shipping Linux as a way to get a better margin. We can help. We won't charge you anywhere near as much as MS does. All we ask is that you deliver using this hardware model, to make OS X look as good as possible. We'll still make Macs, but they'll be priced high, for our dedicated followers. Heck, you can even use our facilities. What do you say?"
That would never happen. Not over Steve Jobs' dead body. Well, even he's not going to wait for that to happen. I don't really think his ego could escape the temptation of not only delivering a better Mac, but a better PC, too. Who cares if the Mac loses market share - the point is that Apple will be everywhere it wasn't.
I can see the ad now: "I'm a Mac." "And I'm a PC... hey, what are you doing wearing my suit? AND WHY DOES IT LOOK BETTER ON YOU?!" "Well, PC owners can now have the Mac experience with OS X for only $99." "$99! I cost way more than that! If you want to use me at home, I cost $150, if you want to use me at work I cost $250 and if you want all the bells and whistles, I cost $400." "I cost $99 - with all the bells and whistles." "You can't do that!" "No, *you* can't. You really think the suit looks better on me?" (fade to white, Apple logo)
Computers like the iPod. Computers like the iPhone/Touch. Computers like the Apple TV. Computers like the Mac. Some designed for your hand, some designed for your lap, and some designed for your desk. Some primarily for music, some primarily for telephony, some primarily for video, and some for everything else. Most will run some version of OS X, and that percentage is likely to increase from what it is today. Year to year ... market forces will determine which computers they produce the most of.
Predictions:
Macs will be absorbed by Microsoft as OSX and Windows merge resulting the demise (or compromise) of its quality but they will continue to build great gadgets.
New software (whatever you're using now) will be available online only and this is where Google or an affiliate will built the next big thing, a light unit/box with a new fast operating system that you can subscribe to software sites. Adobe softwares, for example, are available online only. Users will pay only for the time they use the software at cents per hour or an annual subscription. Solving pirating & copyright issues. Hundreds or more software will be available for free with corporate sponsors.
1. Mac marketshare is continuing to grow, according to the latest report growth was 8% in q4:
http://gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=856712
2. Gartner is predicting that by 2011, Apple will double its U.S. and Western Europe unit market share in computers.
http://www.beatenetworks.com/blog/index.php?/archives/46-Gartner-Technology-Opportunities-Through-2012.html
2. Microsoft needs a legitimate competitor in order to stay out of further anti-trust issues.
3. TheiPod/ iPhone halo effect brings more people into the Apple realm and makes converting those users to Macs much easier.
4. The dual boot capability of a modern Mac makes it the perfect solution for those who want to use a Mac but also need to use some Windows apps.
That is a ridiculous statement. All Microsoft does is sell their OS for PCs, and they generate 2-3x the revenue that Apple generates. Apple is the strongest company on earth, as far as I'm concerned. IF Mac sales ever slowed down (and there's no evidence they are even slowing down a bit), Apple could ship OSX for PCs and make a killing there too. Apple has every option available, and they haven't even starting shipping iPhone to China yet (the world's largest telecom market). Apple will be worth 5x what MSFT is worth in 5 years.
My name is not Ralph The Dog. Ralph The Dog is a freeken Muppet.
My name is Ralf. Every dog should be able to say his own name RALF got it? RRRAAALLLLLFFFF!!
Lets try it again. Ralf, Ralf RRRRAALF. My name should not be spoken, it should be barked. Just picture a cat running across the lawn. Ralf!
:)
OS X? Probably just a hedge against a future Windows X release.
1. A netbook/tablet is probably on the way with a slimmed down OSX system (similar to the EEE PC T91), given the constant tablet and netbook rumors
2. Quick boot OSX preloaded on on built in flash RAM for all Mac machines is probably next, since this will probably be a feature for the netbook anyway
3. WIMAX or 3GPP-LTE (depending on a phone co deal) integration for netbook and macbook pro models
4. OLED displays for macbook pro+ models
Not to snipe the author who wrote a good article but I strongly disagree that things are moving twards a home server. Whats going to happen instead is that PC hardware will find its way into more and more places while in paralel more and more content and applications move onto the web and (sorry) the cloud. As this happens these additional PC or PC like devices will simply begin to pull down functionality and content from the web. Already we have examples like PS3 and Xbox which are little more than specially purposed PC's themselves, adding PC features like netflix steaming. We also have dedicated netflix boxes and web enabled blue ray players. In the coming years these devices will blur more and more. They will get closer to a PC and some of them will turn into full blow PC's by deciding just to throw in windows/mac osx/desktop linux on the device and not deal with special purpose software. The web/cloud will be the central point of focus instead of a home server.
Smartphones will also grow in importance in people's every day life as the web/cloud does simply because they are able to access it. This will, to an extent, happen at the expense of the laptop/PC. Everyone for the most part will continue to have a laptop/PC but people will be less willing to spend money on it as it will only be 1 of several home/portable devices able to access the web/cloud. Desktop applications will continue to exist but they will start being swept up by lower and lower end devices and/or moving onto the web/cloud. A $300 netbook of 2 years from now will be just as powerful as a regular laptop of today. Yet software over the last few years has shown no ability to put additional processing power to use. Consumers will have no need to upgrade their systems for power and they will instead reap the rewards of moors law by having more, but cheaper computing devices.
Mac OS has been benefiting, and will continue to benefit from the move towards the web because Mac OS can access the web as well as any PC can and can do it with more style.
The economic bottleneck that we need to overcome now is the one forced on us by cellular network providers, phone companies, and cable companies. These firms want to put a toll booth at each node. Much cheaper access is what we need if we're to continue making rapid forward progress.
For example, almost everyone would like to have an iPhone. That's every member of the average family. But mom and dad wouldn't want that expensive AT&T contract for each family member. Connectivity prices for wide area mobile access need to come way down and the sooner the better.
Low power LCD projection technology may enable an iPhone successor that can project high quality video and photos onto any wall. That would be cool.
I don't see everything moving to the cloud. 500 gigabyte 2.5 inch hard disks are just around the corner and they'll be very inexpensive. Large local storage capacity is nice to have with video rapidly moving from the TV set to the computer.
Individuals want the best possible user experience. We like large sharp displays, great sound, fast processors, big disks, and lighning quick wideband network access for our laptops.
Corporations and other large organizations want to buy computers for their employees that are adequate for the job at hand. They don't care about the best possible computing experience. They want low cost and adequate. Many of them are used by employees for everyday tasks like email, corporate database updating, word processing, and spreadsheets. There is a lot of information sharing going on. This is a much different market. Cloud computing seems to make a lot of sense for this segment.
I don't see much future for netbooks as a general category. However, I do think very low powered and low priced special purpose computers will find markets. For example, a WiFi enabled table computer with touch keyboard that's used to check email and browse the web might make a nice coffee table accessory if not very expensive.
- by cosuna January 22, 2009 3:42 PM PST
- The key word is evolutionary and Apple has not been that for the past 32+ years.
- Like this Reply to this comment
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Showing 1 of 2 pages (54 Comments)You read Bill Joy's Six Webs [ ?near?, ?far?,?here?,?weird?,?B2B? and ?D2D?] to get an idea that there's alot of places the Mac can go in the future, mainly in the "far" and "weird" side, that is inside Plasma TVs and inside auto dashboards, since the Mac is the "near" and the iPhone is at last the realisation of the "near".
As for the "B2B", we'll it has been Microsoft's territory for a while and it looks like it's Google terrain after all.
And the D2D? Well I think thats for the grabs. Any new Steve Jobs's out there. Just ask Bill Joy what he meant.