Analyst predicts Apple will unveil Netbook
Macworld might bring a new Mac Netbook smaller and lighter than the MacBook Air, according to one analyst.
(Credit: CNET)Macworld Rumor Week is now in full swing.
Ezra Gottheil of Technology Business Research anted up Tuesday with a research note predicting, but not reporting, that Apple will announce a low-cost "Netbook" style Mac in January at Macworld. He told Computerworld, "I don't have any inside information" but nonetheless believes that Apple will release a small low-cost laptop to get in on the Netbook craze and satisfy those calling for a cheaper Mac.
The Apple-doing-a-Netbook rumor has been around for several months, despite Apple's attempts to push it back down. As recently as October, CEO Steve Jobs trotted out the old line about how Apple doesn't know how to make a cheap computer "that isn't a piece of junk," and said Apple was watching the Netbook market but didn't really think at this point, there was any there there.
Gottheil thinks Apple has to move down the price ladder because the other PC vendors have cut prices significantly this year, moving Apple "out of the most price-sensitive markets, including the fastest growing emerging economies." He thinks if Apple released a $599 Netbook-style product that was designed like the iPhone--a simple user interface fed by the App Store and iTunes--it could be a hit.
Netbook sales have been growing, but this report seems more like an attempt to get in on the pre-Macworld rumor mill than anything substantial. Just 5.6 million Netbooks were sold during the past quarter; this isn't exactly a huge market that Apple is missing out on.
And the creator of the Netbook idea--Intel--has backed off its evangelism of the category after realizing it was killing its margins. For years, Apple has wisely avoided the temptation to get sucked into developing low-cost but low-margin hardware that holds nothing but trouble: once you start chasing the low-price dragon in this industry your customers learn to expect cheap computers every year, with no sympathy for your gross margins.
Still, Jobs is notorious for insisting Apple isn't going to release certain kinds of products right up to the point when Apple releases those same products (video iPods and mobile phones, most prominently). And Apple will have to release something interesting at Macworld; a new Mac Mini and an iPhone Nano are the other rumors currently making the rounds.
Tom Krazit writes about the ever-expanding world of Internet search, including Google, Yahoo, online advertising, and portals, as well as the evolution of mobile computing. He has written about traditional PC companies, chip manufacturers, and mobile computers, spending the last three years covering Apple. E-mail Tom. 
My guess is it could be a smaller version of the MacBook Air with a smaller screen and a Atom like CPU.
Possible a better graphics card. In fact the Macbook Air in reality is not much better in flexibility and features then a netbook. Even though most netbooks do not have the CPU power. Many have more USB ports and features. Bottom line is I do not think Apple can design a netbook that could compete.
Apple already has problems justifying $1299 for a MacBook, the price difference would be a killer in the netbook.
In fact, you could even add who in the world is going to pay $300 for a digital music player, or who is going to buy music for it from a restrictive online music store.
And one might add who is going to buy a $500 cell phone from a computer company.
You are completely right. Apple has no idea how to run a company and those news reports of Apple gaining market share are entirely made up by Apple fanboys.
I will agree with you that Apple will probably end up using a Atom, although I wager that Apple is going to be using a dual core Atom, which ought to be fairly comparable to at least the original Core Duo. Most people I have encountered weren't bothered by the performance of Mac OS on the first and second generation Macbooks, so I don't see why an Apple netbook couldn't be made with the dual Core Atom that didn't perform like junk in Steve Jobs words.
Macbook 2.0 ghz = $1299
2.0GHz Intel Core 2 Duo
2GB 1066MHz DDR3 SDRAM - 2x1GB
160GB Serial ATA Drive @ 5400 rpm
SuperDrive 8x (DVD±R DL/DVD±RW/CD-RW
Dell vostro 1310 Same screen size = $979
Intel® Core? 2 Duo (2.0GHz, 2MB L2 cache)
Genuine Windows Vista® Ultimate, Service Pack 1
13.3 inch Widescreen XGA LCD Anti-Glare Display
3GB Shared Dual Channel DDR2 SDRAM at 667MHz, 2 DIMM
8X DVD+/-RW with double-layer DVD+/-R write capability & Roxio
128MB NVIDIA® GeForce? 8400M GS (64 bit)
160GB 7200RPM SATA Hard Drive with Free Fall Sensor
Dell Wireless 1395 802.11g Wi-Fi Internal Card
Dell Wireless 360 Bluetooth Internal for Vista
Integrated 1.3MP Web Camera and Digital Microphone
even if they did have a netbook a little more expensive than the others, you don't have to buy it. i really don't mind paying over 1k a mac because i want it and i think it's worth it.
If Apple wasn't always in a hurry to eliminate last generation technology I think that they could get a large slice of this demand for <$1000 Mac laptops. Obviously not everyone would want to buy a Mac with last generation technology for a couple hundred bucks less, Apple makes nothing off of all these second hand sales. Furthermore, nothing precludes Apple from still selling the midrange MacBook and the high end MBP for those who see the justification in higher end hardware. Apple making a cheaper Mac doesn't preclude them from still selling your favorite Mac at the same price as before.
It doesn't matter if there IS a demand for lower end hardware. Who says a company has to supply it? What makes not being able to afford a car any different from not being able to own a computer? And for people who argue that you're getting the same quality of a PC for a Mac at twice the price, what of it? That just shows how successfully Apple can market its products. Besides, you can get computer for such a huge variety of prices. One thing people love to do is show off the price of a computer with certain specs and declare that it's automatically a great value and that buying anything more expensive for the same or worse specs is worthless. There's more to computer's than price and specs.
"If Steve Jobs says cheap hardware would run OS X like junk then I guess the first couple generations of MBs ran like junk." Sure, it's cheap hardware now, but it wasn't then.
"why can't Apple use a CPU that has been on the market for about a year?" That's not how Apple is run. You can't compare every aspect of Apple to other companies in the same industry, because its business strategies are so unique.
"If Apple wasn't always in a hurry to eliminate last generation technology I think that they could get a large slice of this demand for <$1000 Mac laptops." The goal is to eliminate the last generation technology. As long as they continue to introduce the newest technology and replace it with the old, consumers will continue to perceive Apple's products to be more valuable.
Putting a cheap Mac out there that is essentially crippled in order to meet a price point will only tarnish the brand that Apple has worked long and hard to build up. I'm not sure that's a wise idea.
If Ferrari put out a subcompact econobox that could only do 70 downhill in with a tailwind pushing it, is that really the sort of brand name impression that Ferrari would want for their product line? Especially when that same car costs double to triple the amount that any other econobox from other car makers put out?
I just don't see it happening.
Bad premises do not an argument make. ;)
"What makes you so sure it'd be crippled, Dan? "
Steve Jobs himself said that Apple didn't know how to make a computer for less than $500 that didn't suck (paraphrasing). Now look at what netbooks currently offer in the sub $500 price range.
Low power CPU's running at slow speeds.
Very small LCD's and low resolutions.
Tiny keyboards that typically are more of a hassle to type on than to be worth the effort.
Small hard disk or SSD.
Minimal memory.
Graphic capability limited.
Now that's a GOOD netbook. If Apple were to produce anything close to an Acer One or Dell Mini9, which are in the $300 range, Apple would have to charge $5-800 easily, and that's just based upon their price structure of current products by comparing hardware specs of PC vs Mac.
As the Macintosh is all about the experience, in order for OS X to run properly to maintain that experience, they can't afford to run the OS on similar hardware. If they did, it would be crippled and that would be a bad experience. In order to maintain that level of expectation, that suggests again that they would have to charge $5-800.
Look at the Apple mini. It's hardware would be fine for a netbook if they can add a screen and keyboard to the device in a new small case. It could work- but that price point has to be low enough to be worth buying.
When you are trying to attract netbook buyers, they are seeing netbooks at $300 that do all they want- will they be willing to pay $5-800 or more for an Apple branded version? For that price, they could simply get a laptop which would be far superior to that same hardware.
That's my argument, based on Apple's past and even Steve Jobs comments.
What is your counter argument?
I'm not entirely sure how they can do that without cannibalizing the sales of the Macbook Air. The Air is already WICKED THIN, has a 13-inch screen and is ultra portable. I don't think Apple would go so far as to make a notebook less than 12 inches: They become very difficult for a lot of people to use on a normal basis at that size. And considering Apple has a large college student base, whom does a lot of typing, that'd be kind of an odd device to market toward them.
If I see that I can get roughly the same thing as a Macbook Air (minus an SSD and probably a back-lit keyboard), then why the heck would I cough up an extra $1000 for a Macbook Air? Speed and storage aren't exactly what "netbooks" or the Macbook Air are know for, so there's very little differentiation there. And I'm only guessing that a "netbook" will cost less than a Macbook, which is already $800 less than the Macbook Air - putting a "netbook" roughly the $900-1000 cheaper than a Macbook Air.
Yes, Apple should get a "netbook" on the market, but they should've done that last year instead of putting out an expensive Macbook Air.
Btw, analysts are often wrong. And whatever happened to the tablet rumor?
Competition has driven down the price of laptops to $300 but sadly the quality of those laptops have come down with it. I like the post by Vegaman_Dan, that's not Mac's market nor does it apply to their brand. Just because some people want them to lower their standards make and sell cheap crap, doesn't have any base in reality.
I just got my hands on the HP mininote (via a Costco kiosk) and I'll tell you one thing, in terms of design they got it right, that thing is beautiful.
- by gadgetguy2000 December 23, 2008 5:50 PM PST
- You take something Old (i.e. Newton) and add something New (iTouch/iPhone) and combine it into a device like the Amazon Kindle.... include a Keyboard at the bottom and you could have the next great device. Students could have both a portable computing platform & text book reader plus all the added benefits of the iTouch...who needs a Netbook when you can have an Apple Appbook!
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(26 Comments)Common Apple.... collaborate & innovate.