Has Apple hit the 10 millionth iPhone mark?

Has Apple really sold its 10 millionth iPhone? That's what several bloggers are saying. But a closer look suggests that it might be a bit too early to pop open the champagne.

(Credit: Apple)

A joint project of AFB and Investor Village's AAPL Sanity has been collecting data about iPhone inventory. Using a Google spreadsheet, the group has been unofficially tracking iPhone production estimates using International Mobile Equipment Identity, or IMEI, numbers that are used to uniquely identify every GSM, UMTS, or iDEN mobile phone.

According to the spreadsheet, AFB is reporting that 9,190,680 iPhone units have been created, which my colleague Jason D. O'Grady at ZDNet estimates could mean that about 7.6 million iPhone 3G have already been sold and more than 10 million iPhones in total.

But O'Grady and others point out that these numbers may be misleading.

The groups gathering the data explicitly point out that these are production estimates, not sales estimates. This means the figures also include Apple Retail Store inventory, store displays, and replacement units, which do not count as sales.

This might explain why Apple has been mum on the whole thing. But this is not to say that the iPhone hasn't been selling well. In fact, market research firm NPD Group said Monday that 30 percent of smartphone buyers this summer left their existing carrier to get an iPhone 3G.

[sciontcya]

I'm sure this is due to the "Obama kids"
Way to go Dem's!
My stock still sux though...

[lkrupp]

So let me get this straight. Apple or somebody picks a figure of 10 million out of their ass. Everybody fixates on that number and suddenly it's the gold standard. So if Apple fails to reach that 10 million figure then what? The iPhone is declared an abysmal failure? And if they do make the number? The iPhone wins some award from analysts? So Apple/iPhone critics have a vested interest in seeing the number missed so they can crow about how they were correct in their criticisms while Apple/iPhone supporters have a vested interest in seeing the number made so they can crow about the 'god" phone?

Have I got this asinine stupidity about right?

[sciontcya]

Yep, you do.
For these reasons our stocks suck and the market is in the toilet.
"Journalists" and "analysts" have about used the internet to ruin anything of value.
They are the used car salesmen (snake oil) of the new millennia.

May god help us. I hope she will.

[mbenedict]

It's all about perceptions. The worldwide smartphone market is about 100 million units annually, with Nokia owning 60% share (that's roughly 15 million smartphones each quarter.)

Even if Apple hits 10 million iPhones in total, that means Nokia smartphones are still outselling iPhones by a margin of 7-to-1 worldwide.

In perspective, that's worse than PS3's share proportion against the Wii.

So it's all about spin. Apple supporters will say the iPhone is #2 in the US smartphone market. Others will note the US smartphone market is just a drop in a bucket compared to the worldwide market (and to the wider cellphone market), far behind Europe and Asia.

[jaypres]

Nokia has been in the industry for a very long time. It is impossible for Apple to overtake its marketshare within 1-2 years.
Steve Jobs projected a 10 million sales in 2008. Overtaking this projection is what Apple fans are rejoicing about, not because Apple's marketshare is larger than Nokia.
iTunes store did not become number 1 overnight. It took Apple a few years to overtake Walmart. If Apple is on track with the iPhone sales, then it is on healthy track to do what it plans.
And about the 10 million number, it must be chosen based on some calculations and not "plucked out of their ass". Why not say 100 million in 2008? Use some common sense.

[dylan214u]

We shall see soon enough.

[brent319]

10 million is important because it will make this MS know it all look even more stupid.
http://blogs.msdn.com/sprague/archive/2007/01/26/more-on-why-iphone-will-fail.aspx