Ballmer likens economy to depressions of 1837, 1873, and 1929
Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer sketched a dire portrait of the world economy on Friday, likening it to market conditions in 1837, 1873, and 1929, each of which involved bank failures, high unemployment, and a depression.
"This is a once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis," Ballmer told a retreat of House Democrats in Williamsburg, Va. "There is a lot of history around that, and frankly if you stop and think about it, 1837, '73, '29, 2008, it's almost exactly a whole lifetime between each of the major economic difficulties that we face."
Ballmer said that economic growth in the last 25 years was fueled by innovation, globalization, and debt--and that the current levels of debt were unsustainable. "In 1929, for example, just before the stock market crash, the private debt-to-GDP ratio was 160 percent," he said. "Last year, private sector debt as a percentage of the GDP: 300 percent, far more leverage."
Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer: "This is a once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis."
(Credit: Microsoft)His warning of a protracted downturn that could become a depression comes amid a stock market that is down by more than 40 percent from its October 2007 peak, and housing prices in many metro areas that have been falling consistently since July 2006--a feat not equalled since the Great Depression.
"In my view, what we now have will be a fundamental economic reset," he said. "The economy is going to have to re-establish itself at a level of spending that reflects the real value of underlying assets before we can all start growing again at a healthy rate."
On the other hand, even after this week's unemployment reports, the U.S. unemployment rate remains at 7.6 percent, lower than where it was in 1975 and 1992, and far lower than 10.8 percent in 1982. Figures before 1940 involved more estimation, but Census Bureau data put the unemployment rate in 1938 at 19.1 percent.
"PC sales (are) discretionary in most home budgets, the second, the third PC," Ballmer said, adding that Microsoft nevertheless will continue to spend more than $9 billion a year in R&D. "Consumer electronics has that characteristic. Fifty percent of capital spending in this country is on information technology. Less capital, less spend on information technology. No sector will be immune."
Microsoft shares have fallen by about half since the fall of 2007, a steeper fall than the Dow Jones index but in line with the tech-centric Nasdaq.
Democrats in the audience applauded when Ballmer endorsed the so-called stimulus legislation currently being considered by the U.S. Congress, saying it is "vital" and "will provide a cushion as we reach the reset point and it will help restart our economic engine."
He didn't go into details or address some of the allegations of wasteful government spending that have imperiled the bill's passage in the Senate as its size swelled to nearly $1 trillion. Senate Democrats said on Friday night that they might whittle down the revised version to $780 billion, still much higher than the $300 billion figure that was proposed as recently as October.
Ballmer said that while he distinguishes "private debt and government debt," there "certainly has been too much use of debt" in general. The stimulus legislation will be paid for by the U.S. Treasury borrowing money and running up debt, largely from other countries such as China.
After offering dark comparisons to history's depressions, Ballmer ended on a positive note, saying the United States has the right combination of talent and potential for innovation to succeed, especially if more tax dollars are spent on basic research and development.
This is, he said, "a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to think about our priorities again and make the investments that put us on the right foot."
Declan McCullagh, CNET News' chief political correspondent, chronicles the intersection of politics and technology. He has covered politics, technology, and Washington, D.C., for more than a decade, which has turned him into an iconoclast and a skeptic of anyone who says, "We oughta have a new federal law against this." E-mail Declan. 




I take issue to Ballmer's blather.
I liken what we're seeing now to what I would see in any corrupted system. An unregulated banking system with bank officers exacting large fees for little work, a government not regulating the banking system and planning systems (but regulating everything else - fees, development requirements, etc., so why not banking?), and the last administration handing over hundreds of billions to "select" banking companies with hardly any oversight. Now, with the stimulus package, we're "borrowing" our own money - how do I get in on this deal?
I don't see our past problems - I see a governmental system similar to some of the Asian and African countries. Infighting, squabbling, people suffering and not being able to pay their bills and walking away from their homes, poor education support. America, or Zimbabwe? The leaders of both countries appear to be aloof to their charges, and we want a solution yesterday.
Ballmer means well. Pushing upgrades for PCs, operating systems, and office suites is what MS does. I am now working for myself, working to get child care, transit, and affordable housing solutions built and established in a part of the US that has been suffering for years while developers have worked to push real estate prices through the roof, and I work just to cover my expenses and eat. I changed my priorities 3 years ago, after tiring of trying to get my clients to listen to me and watching my previous employers feed the frenzy with irresponsible abandon.
Good luck to all.
What folks have to get through their head is: the MORE WEALTH DISPARITY THE BETTER. The question you should be asking: can move between economic strata easily? In the U.S., the answer is YES.
Less economic regulation. Less taxation. More free enterprise. More wealth creation. More wealth disparity.
Zimbabwe and Cuba have wealth parity -- if you believe in economic equality, those are areas to emulate.
In fact it can easily be argued that the sole reason we have the problem we have is exactly because of regulation. See, congress oversees the banking regulations and the democrats controlled banking, even under GB. The democrates wanted to increase home ownership (social engineering) and so they lowered the loan/asset ratio that banks must maintain. This enabled home ownership to climb from 64% to 69%. Guess what % of total gov't backed mortgages are bad? Right, about 5%. Too bad housing is a relatively illiquid asset and can't be easily unloaded esp when there's little capital liquidity.
Why did banks follow the gov'ts lead in terms of resetting their asset/loan ratios? Because this primarily applied to Fanny/Freddie mortgages which are... regulated and backed by the gov't.
So, for this problem, thanks Barney Frank (who just bailed out his own bank), and Christopher Todd. But mainly, thank the democrates who only want markets with upside and no downturns. The result is instead of normal smaller more frequent downturns is full on recessions. Thanks Barney!
And lets be honest, please - They knew they couldn't afford them! It makes my stomach turn to hear about "preditory" lending etc. The fact of the matter is that most people that bought houses that were too expensive for their income levels did so because they thought the value of the house was always going to keep going up and if they had to bail that would cover their butts.
Of course you only hear about the banks from the politicians, especially the ones that were complicent in this problem.
Just because a few greedy people that contributed nothing got rich doesn't justify anything.
If bankers knew their loans...
If insurerers knew their risks..
If investors knew their investments...
If regulators had the right regulations...
Yeah, we would not be here. We are. It is reset (called reality).
The economy is bad, so sure I wanna buy another PC.
If one job ain't enough to put breads on the table for our families, then two jobs and three jobs for some. Are we lazy? Or, we are, like some commentators suggested, simply wasting too much money on things we don't need. Perhaps.
I was brought up believing hard work and honesty. Never tell a lie. And here I am, struggling with my finance.
Looking at those guys unhappy of government capping their salaries at $500,000/yr and hinting that money does not justify the efforts and time they spent on their jobs. You know what? I'm gonna start to teach my kids to be greedy but act sincere and compassion. Show the people how much we really care about them. Show them our work is not about us, it's about them. Show them the world is not a fair place, but we can make it better by working together, give them hope. Then, they will be more than happy to give us the money and feeling good about doing so. Having nothing or everything? I want my kids to have everything---whatever it takes! Because honesty and hardworking seem only bring debts and more family struggles.
The problem is that we have taken 'hard work' to mean working yourself to DEATH and BEYOND at the businesses that employ you. Plus, we have allowed the rich to get out of their share of helping to fund the infrastructure of this country by keeping them at VERY low tax rates, when the super-wealthy (those making over 10 million a year) should be taxed at near 90% unless they are pumping their dollars back into the economy by actually BUYING STUFF, not by buying stock which NEVER sees that money spent on stock getting back into the economy at large.
Pretty much since the terrible decision to treat corporations like they are a person, it was further exacerbated by the insanity of making corporations answerable to only shareholders.
Next, the US turned from a producing to a mindless consumer where debt spending on crap no one needs was considered patriotic.
The endless pursuit of money and collecting things is what got us here. It won't stop until people figure out that they have to live within their means and must take away power from the corporations who really run the country.
The rick got out of paying their fair share? What planet do you live on? The top 10% of income earners in this country pay 95% of the taxes. Don't be ignorant of the facts. The rich ARE the ones paying for everything right now. You are just jealous and want to use the police power of government to take what they've EARNED to give it to someone who hasn't earned it.
You're obviously ignorant of how economics work. "....should be taxed at near 90% unless they are pumping their dollars back into the economy by actually BUYING STUFF, not by buying stock which NEVER sees that money spent on stock getting back into the economy at large". They use the value of their stock to borrow with so they can buy things. You think Bill Gates and all his billions in stocks aren't being spent on anything? You don't think he's buying clothes, nice steak dinners, cars, houses, planes, etc? Who makes those stuff? Oh that's right, the middle and lower income classes. So when you tax someone like Mr. Gates at 90%, he's just gonna leave this country and then never buy anything.
The ignorance of the American people is astonishing today. The fact that no one understands basic economics and can be steamrolled by politicians into believing that spending MORE will get us out of this recession is a testament to how bad our education system is. You know, the education system run by those same politicians that spend more money per student than any other country on the planet.
I don't think that things will 'ultimately be okay' until we realize that our free market system works even worse than the system that Russia and the U.S.S.R. had, which wasn't communism.
The only thing that our 'free market' system has accomplished: putting all the money in the country into the hands of a VERY few, contrary to government figures.
There haven't been many changes between 2006 and today, when it comes to credit default swaps / derivatives, sub-prime / NINJA loans, mortgage brokers, mark-to-market rules, grading of risk. Without good regulation in place, confidence remains low.
AND
Over-leverage is an extremely important issue as well.
With the markets over-leveraged, credit remains tight, period. If the banks fail to maintain capital as a result of loan defaults, they will not meet the minimum capitalization and will be taken over by the Feds. Since there's no in-place process for dealing with mortgage defaults and sub-prime/NINJA loans will continue to reset through next year, it's fairly easy to assume that a lot more banks will fail.
More importantly, the USSR was a soul crushing experience that robbed people of their ability to think and act for themselves.
I don't seem to recall capitalism killing millions of people in its name. I do remember my history in that the communists in Russia and China killed hundreds of millions of people and then kept the ones alive living a life of mediocrity. But hey, who pays attention to history, right?
Besides, it's not like capitalism has lifted more people out of poverty than any other economic system in history, right? <rolls_eyes />
I take issue with those who believe that in the earlier instances, government didn't act or was slow to act. Good scholarship now concludes that the depression starting circa 1920 was extended BY ALMOST A DECADE because of government's actions (not its delay in acting). The problem here is that the conditions that led to depression were caused or enabled by government, and that government actions to deal with the problems made them worse. Some pain will be felt in any "correction." But government should just back off and let the normal forces of the market deal with the problems thus caused.
The free market is a system that, by its nature, tries to maintain equilibrium. When the government intervenes, it postpones the establishment, or changes the nature, of that equilibrium. Sometimes, it even causes an injury, the healing of which is thwarted by further intervention. In cases of economic depression, the system can heal its own scab, but if we cauterize the wound, we make things much worse.
No, all of this came around because government wasn't using it's regulatory powers the way that it should have been using them.
Oh, and as to the 'good scholarship' concluding that the great depression was extended by the government's actions.... DON'T YOU BELIEVE IT! It is only ECONOMIC scholars who believe in 'Free market over all, no regulation!' who are saying that, only to be proven wrong at EVERY turn by other scholars, such as historians.
It is a failure because those with their hand on the scale are driven by greed, and they don't care who gets hurt by their irrational desire for getting more money then they need.
The free market as a self-correcting system is a MYTH.
Is it any coincidence that N is one letter off from O and T is one letter off from S?
1+1=2 right?
Also the start of the NT kernel line was 3.0.
Something to think on is it not?
D~W
There are some great articles on this by an Australian economist. Who rejects the notion that economies tend towards equilibrium, saying that economists who say that are using overly simple models of reality.
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/01/31/therovingcavaliersofcredit/
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2008/11/02/debtwatch-no-28-november-2008-what-is-really-going-on/
"Re: Concerning the issues with 1-2-3 that are talked about in the documentation you gave me, most of the issues are related to converting files between older and newer versions of product and converting documents between Lotus and Microsoft. Anytime a file is saved backwards or saved with an older file format than the format the file was created under, such as saving a 1-2-3 , 97 file for Windows 95 into a WK1 format for DOS, then naturally we are expected to loose certain features due to technology and features that are present now that were not present 8 - 10 years ago. Similarly, if we try to convert a file from Lotus into Excel or Excel into Lotus, due to differences in the products not every feature will be converted perfectly with the file filters that are available. Both Lotus and Microsoft create similar spreadsheet programs; however, there are several differences in both programs and these differences will remain to distinguish the products apart. We do try to design conversion filters that will allow as much of the file formats as possible to be exchanged and converted without disrupting the actual file design and format.
In one of your letters you made mention of the @IRR and @ERR functions in the 1-2-3 product. By design the @IRR (notably "absent" in Open Office) will calculate the Internal Rate of Return; where the @ERR is used in conjunction with other formulas, posted was an "ERR" showing an error was received in the calculations. As far as I can see in the program I cannot find an @ERR function that will allow us to calculate an Economic Rate of Return"
So, let us party like it is 1982 folks on the "90% market share plus" river boat!
"Citigroup to buy $50M private jet: report"
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/26/news/companies/citigroup_plane.reut/
Economic depression? what economic depression!!!
"Ramp up the alternatives" -- sounds like a good idea, but that needed to start thirty years ago. It's too late to replace more than an insignificant amount of that oil.
"Move to electric cars" -- a very small number of people will have electric cars, the rest will not have the money or credit to buy them. Most Americans have bought their last car ever.
It's a whole new world, better start getting ready.
For the best oil projections out there, see the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas:
http://www.aspo-usa.com
Carter tried to start up serious alternative research, but the very people who caused this mess ridiculed and stopped him.
What happens when the oil runs out?
So the banks aren't complicit in allowing these loans? Don't give me the BS that they had to, they didn't. Why did Bush fix the "problem"? Why did the banks play around with variable rate loans to trick people into thinking they could afford homes? The poor banks are such innocent victims in all of this!
So the wall street isn't complicit in taking these bad loans and passing them off as AAA?
What planet do you live on?
This was caused by unbridled greed with no regulations. All infrastructure, banks, insurance, power, and water should not be allowed to be traded in the markets, they should and need to be either non-profits or publicly owned. Where I live, power companies that are private are 4-5 times more expensive then PUD's, and they also keep increasing rates even in the face of record profits that they got last year.
The "free market" is the problem and is a proven failure.
Talk about listening to people simply because of their position in a company that so many mistakenly think is progressive and innovative. They got where they are by hoodwinking IBM and then ruthlessly using their monopoly power to prevent others from innovating and taking their business away from them. Greed and corruption. Which is exactly what brought this country to where it is now.
Any fool can state the obvious. But no fool is going to give us the answers we need. We need people with the smarts to stop the nonsense of the post Reganomics fundamentalist economic theory that has the backing of people who don't care about the welfare of the whole, but only their own little slice of the pic.
If you must listen to him, take away the lesson that whatever he says is not in the best interests of the country.
The egos of these guys is insane.
"The United States has the right combination of talent and potential for innovation to succeed, especially if more tax dollars are spent on basic research and development."
R&D will be the key to our economy over the next hundred years. R&D can bring our cost of labor down below that of third world nations (especially if you include the cost of shipping.) R&D can bring the day to day cost of living down without reducing our quality of life. I would like to see Ballmer call for more research money to be spent on open source software like Linux and Open Office.
Apple.
You know who's stock si still rising?
Apple.
You know who has 26B in ca$h?
Apple.
The list goes on.
MS Should be leveled from the top-down before they're in BK.
They're already in creative BK as shown by their never-ending copying (badly) of Apple.
Fanboy? Nope. Happy investor.
- by jingonilo February 8, 2009 12:33 PM PST
- To all these Apple fans, Apple is overrated. Apple doesn't help the productivity of the workers , hinders it with their useless contraptions. It is all marketing. But I have to say Jobs is a genius, without him, Appple would go back to nothing.
- Like this Reply to this comment
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- by bhushan bhaagii February 9, 2009 4:17 AM PST
- Well, then all Apple employees will be praying Jobs lives long. "Long Live Steve Jobs!"
- Like this
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