Sad about the economy? Dream about the future

SAN FRANCISCO--The wild days of Web 2.0 may have thrown their last sheep. Here's how you can tell that things have gotten serious: at O'Reilly Media and Techweb's Web 2.0 Summit this week, people actually showed up for breakfast.

That's because they probably weren't out as late. The party scene at tech conferences tends to be a bacchanalia--take South by Southwest Interactive, with enough events to make any little black book burst at the seams, or TechCrunch50 a few months ago, where rumor has it that a high-profile dot-commer got so drunk at an afterparty that conference organizers politely asked him to delete some intoxicated Twitter posts.

The buttoned-up Web 2.0 Summit had only one legitimate blowout: the launch party for News Corp.'s MySpace Music. The venue was the city's stately Old Mint, a landmarked Greek Revival building dating back to the 1870s that, true to its name, used to house the manufacturing of money--a harsh irony in these post-boom days.

To be sure, the annual Web 2.0 Summit is intended to be a more highbrow affair in comparison to its more sprawling Web 2.0 Expo sibling. Under the glass chandeliers and marble pillars of the downtown Palace Hotel, an ornate vestige of a bygone San Francisco, the attitude was all business. But with the economy in the tank, and dot-com dreams getting shattered by the day with each layoff announcement, it was probably a little bit more businesslike than usual.

At a Web 2.0 Summit start-up mock-pitch event called Launchpad, organizer John Battelle says the companies onstage would not be fly-by-night start-ups, but rather emerging companies with solid business models and the potential to have a big social impact.

(Credit: Josh Lowensohn/CNET Networks)

With a "Web meets world" theme, the speakers weren't trendy dot-com entrepreneurs, but rather industry leaders like former Vice President Al Gore and Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk, as well as celebrities such as cyclist Lance Armstrong and The Omnivore's Dilemma author Michael Pollan. For a start-up mock-pitch event called "Launchpad," conference organizer John Battelle reminded the audience that the companies onstage would not be fly-by-night start-ups, but rather emerging companies with solid business models and the potential to have a big social impact.

But this sort of discussion can get ahead of itself. A conference about changing the world, though its intentions may be wholly pragmatic, can devolve into starry-eyed futurism when the present needs so much attention. This was something that began to rear its head when venture capital veteran John Doerr called the recession "the greatest economic opportunity of our lifetimes" and when Intel CEO Paul Otellini, despite having just said some somber words about the recession and having urged solidarity as we "get through this thing," paraded out a shiny new "smart camera" prototype that elicited plenty of oohs and ahhs upon demonstrating that it could translate Chinese into English.

"I like coming here," Otellini said to the audience. "It's a respite from, sort of, watching the stock market crash every day, and think about what the future is going to hold from us."

He's right; talking about the future, and listening to industry luminaries do so, is important. On the other hand, it can happen at the expense of the present. Trendy "health 2.0" companies are exciting, but the more pressing problem in the United States is that millions of Americans can't afford health care coverage, let alone a 23andMe spit test.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom hails Barack Obama's campaign mastery of social media.

(Credit: Josh Lowensohn/CNET Networks)

In a panel about how the Web is changing politics, digerati icon Arianna Huffington and San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom hailed Barack Obama's campaign's mastery of social media and acknowledged that the new president-elect needs to keep using these powerful tools when he inherits a national mess in January. They were less descriptive, though, regarding how.

Elon Musk, the PayPal co-founder now at the helm of troubled electric-car start-up Tesla Motors, took the stage on Friday afternoon and spoke candidly about his company's issues. After the economic meltdown, Tesla nixed a plan to raise about $100 million because it would've involved "very difficult terms" with investors. (The company raised $40 million instead.) He used a military analogy to describe the carmaker's subsequent layoffs: "(It's the) difference between sort of special forces and regular Army, and if you're going to get through a really tough environment...you need to have a really high level of dedication and talent."

But when Battelle, interviewing Musk onstage, asked if the beleaguered Tesla would actually make money, the serial investor replied, "Yeah, yeah, absolutely!" and said he still believes in Tesla's strategy: release a six-figure sports car, the Roadster, first, then eventually move on to more affordable electric vehicles. "It's important to emphasize that the point of Tesla, the reason I funded it and put so much time into it, is to get to mass-market electric cars," Musk said. "To get there, you need to start with something."

The digital futurism didn't make its way to MySpace's party on Thursday night, with performances by Lionel Richie and paparazzi staple DJ AM. It was a big success: the Old Mint was packed to its gilded walls with Valley notables from VC legend Ron Conway to actor-turned-entrepreneur Ashton Kutcher. But the atmosphere was tinged with an acknowledgment that the Web 2.0 Summit and the MySpace afterparty, dual doses of Old San Francisco and dot-com glory, could be the last such revelry for quite some time.

Layoffs were just the tip of the iceberg. In the tech industry's meet-and-greet culture, the conference and event circuit is the next to get hit hard by the economic slowdown, partygoers predicted. O'Reilly's own Web 2.0 Expo in Tokyo had already been canceled earlier this fall, with an employee citing lack of sponsor interest. John Battelle announced to the audience that next year's Web 2.0 Summit would be held not at the Palace but at a less glitzy Westin hotel down the street.

Some small conferences, particularly those held outside the United States that rely on Valley types to jet across an ocean or two for attendance, were also gossiped about as big question marks. Individuals were remarkably candid about their companies' own chances: "I give myself four, six months," one entrepreneur told me.

Maybe, once the constant talk of saving the world had subsided, the Internet's thinkers were finally willing to focus on what's happening now. Or maybe they're just more honest after a few drinks.

A correction was made at 2:11 p.m. PT: O'Reilly Media co-produces the Web 2.0 Summit with Techweb.

[Manhattan2]

Innovation will get us out of the mess we are in. The Manhattan 2 Project is built around innovation. What is Web 2.0. We just know how things should be and how they are connected. Does that make it 2.0? We call it the Dynamic Grid powered by 4Dlogic.

[lacykemp]

While I agree that Obama's use of social media was better than we've seen from any candidate before, we have to consider that alot of these mediums didn't exist before. And...it wasn't totally social. It was more one way communication. Don't get me wrong.. it was great to get Facebook updates and the VP text message, but there wasn't much interaction going on there. Correct me if I'm wrong, please.

[mybanktracker]

I see this as an opportunity to trim back and readjust your outlook. The economic downturn will bury a good amount of these companies and VCs, but that's only because they got sloppy. They had some severe tunnel vision and didn't see it coming. It's time to get small and start your own companies. That's what I've done.<br /><br />Jason<br />http://www.mybanktracker.com

[Dragonfly305]

Please forward copy and paste please do not change There are 305,761,903 people who live in the United States of America and we can fix the econemy our selvies we would pay off our houses, and credit cards and any other bills we may have. We would buy new cars and houses, pay our living expenses and still not have to spend $$$850,000,000,000!!!! <br />The Stimulus Package to save our economy is 850,000,000,000 dollars that is 2.7 billion per person <br />If you gave 1 million to every man woman and child that has a valid verifiable Social Security NUMBER that would fix the problem. All persons receiving the money and making less the $200,000 a year must pass a class to show that they can handle the money, any person under the age of 21 or medical unable would have the money put in a trust in their name. Any money that is being held in trust cannot be attached or inherited or borrowed against in anyway so as to protect those that are to young or unable to protect themselves. You would put 1.5 billion in to the administration of the trust. For those in our country that can not take care of themselves or their money they would have trust setup and it would be audited once a year. If it is found that price gouging is going on; or people were stealing their money they would go to Jail. Failure to properly administer any trust fund would be a CLASS A FELONY punishable by not less than 15 years in a state facility and forfeiture of all assists held by them included businesses and corporations'. This would wipe out welfare, you would have DSHS administer the Trust for those that could not pass the financial planning class, were under 18 or medical unable. This would insure their bills and monthly living expenses were paid. All persons must purchase medical insurance for all members of their household. All persons who are gainfully employed and or business owners at the time of receipt must maintain gainful employment and or business ownership for 24 months after they receive the check unless they are over the age of 60. (So that everyone does not quit their job) if they lose their job they must find a new one within sixty days or lose the remainder of their million dollars. <br /> <br />There would be no more welfare as we know it has not helped America, if you can work you should. The number of those that can't work is much smaller than the welfare docket and they receive SSI. This would be taken care of with the check and the number of people receiving SSI would go down. <br />This is not a free ride this would be giving back to America all of the money that you expect us to pay back for the rest of our lives and that of our children's. WE THE PEOPLE would have the ability to fix the problem from the ground up, not the top you can not build anything and start at the top you must start at the bottom. We the people do not agree with giving all of our money to corporations and banks at the top to fix a problem that was created by banks and congress by creating loopholes so that banks could loan money to people that could never pay it back and loans that should be illegal. <br />The class should include money management, smart investing, what one can really afford to maintain with a million dollars and what one can not. how to save, how to budget, how to handle cost overruns without going into debt. The local schools and collages could teach these classes and you could pay them 1 billion to do this. The school must already be accredited and approved by the state and federal government so as not to create diploma mills. the test should be standard for everyone. Those that can not take the test should not have to wait for their money. Those in nursing homes, mental institutions, other long-term care /halfway homes would have trust and not have to wait. Those in prison would have their money held trust until their release and they passed the financial test. Those that have life sentences would have their money go to the state in which they are incarcerated. Those that receive a life sentence after they received their funds or are in trail process will have their funds and assists held in trust until they are found not guilty or convicted and given a life sentence or charges are dropped . If they die well in prison or are given a life sentence after they receive their funds, those funds and assists will be donated to the RED CROSS /SALVATION ARMY/ GOOD WILL/ AMERICAN CANCER SOCIETY EQUALLY that is 25% for each one. Those convicted of trust fund abuse and misuse mismanagement will have all assists and funds given reimbursed to those that were their victims, left over assets or funds will revert to the federal goverment. If you agree with this please sign and forward to your congressmen, state reps, senators and the President of the United States of America. and your friends so they can do it to links are on the bottom so you can find them <br /> <br />http://www.house.gov/Welcome.shtml <br />http://www.senate.gov/ <br />http://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/