Are Netbooks real?
Earlier this year, I expressed my skepticism that Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) and Netbooks (essentially scaled-down, low-cost notebooks) would come to pass as mainstream product categories. My reasoning boiled down to an assertion that these things were neither fish nor fowl. As usually envisioned, a MID is a form factor that is neither as portable as a smartphone nor as full-functioned as a notebook. A Netbook is a notebook that is underpowered and otherwise compromised.
I've seen nothing over the past few months to change my mind about MIDs. If anything, Apple's continued march with the iPhone and the work going on around Google Android have me more convinced than ever that the browser-equipped smartphone is the future of truly mobile computing. (There are a lot of interesting dynamics here related to carrier hardware subsidies and the desire of carriers to lock down and restrict use in various ways, but those are topics for another day.)
Netbook sales, on the other hand, have been strong. In fact, they're driving a lot of the worldwide growth in PC sales. So, are we, in fact, seeing the emergence of a new product category--something that doesn't happen very often?
We are seeing a lot of consumer interest in very portable computers that are economy-priced. Economy pricing is really what's new here. Historically, companies have paid big premiums to get the most portable notebooks for their road warriors with the goal being to give up as little function as possible in service of light weight (and, to a lesser degree, small size).
Some things about Netbooks do indeed look like a new category of product. The first is that a lot of the people purchasing these devices are individuals, not businesses. In many cases (especially in the U.S.), they're intended to supplement--rather than replace--another desktop PC or a higher-end notebook. A second thing is that, especially at the entry level, Netbooks tend to have differences of kind, and not just degree. They run Linux and Windows XP, not Vista. They're explicitly intended to access Web-based applications through a browser or to run some basic productivity software locally; they're not general purpose. And they use less power-hungry, but less powerful, processors such as Intel's Atom.
However, I wonder if the apparent bright line distinction from other notebooks isn't a temporary phenomenon that will soften over time. Memory gets denser, processors get faster, LCDs get cheaper. Some of these Moore's Law-fueled advances could indeed continue to push the entry level of the notebook market down in price. Perhaps we'll even have a $100 laptop that only costs $100 some day. But I strongly suspect that a lot of that technical advance will also go into beefing up the capabilities of notebooks in the sort of price band that a lot of consumer electronics sell for--say, sub-$500.
Ultimately, I'm less convinced that we're seeing the emergence of a truly distinct product category than that we're seeing the continued downward movement of not only notebook entry pricing, but entry bulk as well. Besides, however fond IT industry people are at chopping markets into named categories, as a fellow analyst said at a recent meeting: "the average consumer calls everything a laptop anyway."
Gordon Haff is a principal IT adviser at Illuminata and has more than 20 years of IT industry experience. He writes about what's happening with enterprise servers and data centers, "Yotta-scale" computing, and related software and device trends as part of the CNET Blog Network. Disclosure. 
I think Netbooks are real. The small size appeals to some, the cheap price to others and the OS to still more people. They will tap into the whole "good enough" phenomenon. That said, I think they are better than you give them credit for. The smaller 9 inch screen models will probably be phased out over time, and many people will find that 10 inch screens good enough. How big, after all, was the screen on the original Mac?
They are more capable, horsepower-wise, than I think you give them credit for. I've used a couple Netbooks and response time has not been an issue for the things most people do most of the time: web browsing, email and Office applications. They're also more than able to handle audio and video. They will be close enough to general-purpose for many people.
As for going upscale, Netbooks running Windows XP can't go upscale due to Microsoft's rules for the OS. Linux based machines may go upscale, it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. I don't think Linux will catch on, as a general purpose OS mostly because of poor marketing by the hardware vendors. A vanilla instance of Xandros or Ubuntu could be popular but that's not where they seem to be going. Linux may catch on as a customized appliance for the least tech savy users.
It's not hard to find real notebooks, running Vista selling for as low as $400. If Netbooks take off, then size and OS will the drivers rather than price.
Michael Horowitz
These cloud related developments can keep the cost of netbooks low by shifting the local physical resources to online resources.
The developers at Gladinet has just released a beta 1 Cloud Desktop. The software can make online storage appears as local storage and make online applications appear as local application. It will help netbook owners a lot because the internet is becoming the computer.
- by Jagadeesh Venugopal January 21, 2009 11:44 AM PST
- What we're seeing with netbooks is the refusal by customers to pay more for the next biggest thing in hardware or software. Customers are saying, enough's enough. Get me a PC for browsing and email, and I'll go to the Internet for everything else. The fact that people are buying netbooks with Windows XP (an eight year old OS) should scare Microsoft -- at least some people don't see added value in beefy laptops and Vista.
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(6 Comments)In a sense, the netbook is the un-PC. Its the final realization of Larry Ellison's much vaunted network computer. This more than OLPC will promote computer ownership in the developing world.