• On CBS MoneyWatch: 5 Things You Should Buy at Walmart
June 15, 2009 10:36 AM PDT

What's a fair price for unlimited downloads?

by Matt Rosoff
  • Font size
  • Print
  • 29 comments

Today, U.K. Internet service provider Virgin Media announced plans to begin offering unlimited song downloads for a monthly subscription fee. The songs will be DRM-free MP3 files, which means they will never expire, even if the user switches ISPs. Universal, the largest record label in the world, is so far the only label to sign on, but the other majors will probably follow.

The deal was announced along with a threat to crack down on illegal downloaders (perhaps through some sort of BitTorrent monitoring, although Virgin claims it won't be doing the monitoring itself), but the companies left the most important question unanswered: how much will it cost?

The labels won't want to settle for less than they're getting through iTunes and other download stores, so Virgin will have to guess how many songs will be downloaded per month, then divide that number by the number of subscribers. After some initial heavy usage, I can imagine users downloading about two albums per month. So I could imagine a rate of about $40 per month. That seems fair compared with subscription-based streaming services like Rhapsody, which starts at $12.99 a month.

But what's fair to the industry may not seem fair to users, who have been downloading free music for almost a decade now. People have proven willing to pay for downloads when they get some other tangible benefit--in the case of iTunes, it's the ease of transferring purchased songs to their iPod or iPhone. When the only extra benefit is a clear conscience and less chance of being sued, I think a lot of users will take the risk and stick with free.

Would you pay a monthly fee for unlimited downloads? If so, how much?

Follow Matt on Twitter.

Matt Rosoff is an analyst with Directions on Microsoft, where he covers Microsoft's consumer products and corporate news. He's written about the technology industry since 1995, and reviewed the first Rio MP3 player for CNET.com in 1998. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network. Disclosure. You can follow Matt on Twitter @mattrosoff.
Recent posts from Digital Noise: Music and Tech
Rank your favorite songs with Rank'em
Muziic Web app offers Vevo without ads
10 music-tech trends that will shape the next decade
The five biggest digital audio duds of 2009
Fantastic DJ app for iPhone stung by piracy
The five most welcome digital audio products of 2009
Star 6 beat-box app for iPhone improved
Vevo CEO confirms it's all about business
Add a Comment (Log in or register) (29 Comments)
  • prev
  • 1
  • next
by funkyboot June 15, 2009 11:46 AM PDT
I wouldn't pay for unlimited downloads from a single label, and that's why this will fail. Unless all the majors sign up for a similar service, and do so with the larger indie labels (the Matadors, Sub Pop's, and Merge's of the world), then there's zero chance of success.

How many of your average Joe-Schmoe consumers can even name the label an artist they like is on? How many care? In reality, Virgin offering this service means a few artists any given person likes being available for unlimited downloads, but what about the majority of music the average person listens to? That's spread across the big four labels, which translates to a whole lot of music not available via this service.

So more specifically, the question is: how much would you be willing to pay for unlimited downloads of Virgin albums? My answer to that is nothing. And $40 is completely absurd without the support of at least the other big three labels.

It doesn't take a crystal ball to see that this will fail miserably.
Reply to this comment
by jallen80 June 15, 2009 11:47 AM PDT
$40 sounds reasonable to me, considering I can think of a couple dozen albums I would download in the first month. Of course I would want to cancel my subscription afterward until I had another long list of albums to download.
Reply to this comment
by TJ Spyke June 15, 2009 12:05 PM PDT
One reason I won't subscribe to Napster is because I will lose access to all my songs once I end the subscription. If I could keep all songs I download even after ending my subscription, I MIGHT be willing to pay $20 a month (I don't listen to music all that often, so I would probably only download about 10 songs a month max).
Reply to this comment
by ibeetle June 15, 2009 12:09 PM PDT
I don't know... 40 bucks a month subscription? That would buy 3-5 complete CD's from sources like iTunes and Amazon; and at $1.00 a song that same $40 bucks will easily get you 40 or so singles. Thats a lot of music. So while it is not "unlimited" I would think an average of a new CD a week ($10 a CD X 4 weeks a month= $40) is plenty of music.
And you are not locked into a subscription that you forget about after 6 months, but keep paying on.

Now that iTunes and Amazon, as well as others are now pretty much DRM free one can easily transfer their music to their non-Apple branded digital music playback device.
Reply to this comment
by BravoFour June 15, 2009 12:11 PM PDT
Why would anybody pay $12.99 a month for what they get free now?

You see, it's not a question of "How much would people pay?" Most people will pay nothing to download music.

The answer is obvious. Virgin should create a site where people can download all their music in a high quality, DRM free format. Prior to downloading a file, the user could be required to view an ad. Revenue from the advertising could be shared with the artists.

People won't pay to download music, but they will spend 15s-30s watching an ad, if they get the download free afterwards.
Reply to this comment
by Toulinwoek June 15, 2009 12:12 PM PDT
$40 a MONTH sounds stupid to me, and there's no way I'd pay even half that. The cost of music production/re-production in this digital age is embarrasingly low (good luck finding an RIAA exec who would break down the cost for you, let alone even admit that), such that on royalties alone most any decent musician is going to be rich as cream! Consumer cost of music has been overpriced since the introduction of CD's and now the industry is whining because consumers have found ways to respond to the rape.
I'm not advocating anything illegal, but there's no need for anyone to pay this kind of money, and I suspect that very few (if any) savvy music lovers will.
Reply to this comment
by Kno-itAl June 15, 2009 12:20 PM PDT
If Virgin thinks that they will get dollar for dollar as iTunes, they are crazy. Especially, since there is no extra benefit from signing up for their service. I can maybe see $40 unlimited downloads for music and movies, but for music alone....I would rather stick with iTunes.
Reply to this comment
by pentest June 15, 2009 1:42 PM PDT
If unlimited means more then 40 downloads a month, it will be a better deal then anywhere else.
by pentest June 15, 2009 12:38 PM PDT
If all the major labels signed and their entire catalog was available, I would sign up for 1 month, get all the decent major label music(which there is a relatively small amount) cancel immediately, and never have to think about these cretins again.
Reply to this comment
by pentest June 15, 2009 12:42 PM PDT
Assuming it is truly DRM-free and high quality. At least 320 MP3, but high quality .wav or flac would be nicer.
by jallen80 June 15, 2009 12:48 PM PDT
I agree. In one month I could download a whole lot of music that would otherwise cost a hundred dollars or more on iTunes or Amazon. 40 bucks is dirt cheap for those looking to buy in bulk.
by June 15, 2009 1:12 PM PDT
Pretty hard to answer the price question until Virgin does full disclosure and defines what they mean by "unlimited" (coz it obviously ain't) and "abuse". Tell me game I'm playing before I agree to sign up for it...
Reply to this comment
by June 15, 2009 1:22 PM PDT
Would I pay $40 a month for unlimited DRM-free downloads?

Yes! For one month, once.
Reply to this comment
by UrgentMatter June 15, 2009 1:28 PM PDT
To all you people saying that you would just abuse the system by downloading all the songs in one month and then stopping your subscription why not just download them illegally? Lets be honest here and whilst illegal downloads are illegal you won't be punished for doing it so it's not putting people off. The only two reasons people wouldn't download illegally that I can think of is because 1) You are moral and don't want to do something if its labelled illegal by the government in which case I assume you don't ever speed or 2) You want to support the artists which you may be doing if Virgin Media (who is my ISP btw) has to pay the labels for every track downloaded but then you will just pass the financial burden to them and I like my ISP a lot more than I like music labels.

I am not trying to discourage people from abusing a system like this but just trying to save you $40. If you just want to abuse it then there really is no point in signing up in the first place.
Reply to this comment
by pentest June 15, 2009 1:42 PM PDT
How is that abuse?

If they offer truly unlimited music downloads and someone downloads say 10,000 songs in a month and then cancels, that is playing by the rules. To say it is abusive is retarded beyond description.

If you want to support artists, download an album via bittorrent and send the band a check for $1.00. That is 5-10 times more then they would get if you walked into a store and bought it. Then go to their show if they come to your town, that is how they really make money.
by UrgentMatter June 15, 2009 1:52 PM PDT
OK perhaps abusive was the wrong word but it is certainly not what they intend for people to use the system for.

And I totally agree with your suggestions about how to support your favourite artists. I was merely pointing out that you don't do anybody any real favours by downloading 10000 tracks in a month on this even if it is legal.
by pentest June 15, 2009 1:58 PM PDT
Who cares what they intended?

If it is truly unlimited, then there really is no way to abuse the system. Of course it probably won't be, but the cut off will have to be a fairly high number of downloads or it will fail.

Perhaps someone who thinks the crap they spew out today is worth downloading then someone might continue with it. Most won't.
by tvank June 15, 2009 2:22 PM PDT
I think it is safe to assume they will require a 6-24 month commitment to prevent this type of situation. If my ISP offered this, I'd have to think hard about it, but I would prefer to see the labels slash prices to about $0.25 per download. I think that is the magic price point that will maximize their revenue and put a big bite into illegal downloads.

As a consumer who will only by legal, DRM-free music, at $1 per song, I buy only songs I know I like. At $0.25 I would buy whole albums and experiment more. I'm certain I would ultimately spend more than I do now and I would also discover artists that I'm not exposed to now. Win-win-win.
by pentest June 15, 2009 3:39 PM PDT
A commitment is likely going to be required, but that will probably cause it to fail. Because then it isn't $40 for unlimited, it is $40*commitment length. $960 dollars for unlimited, really is a good deal, but since so many people are only looking to fill holes in their collection, not start one, this is unreasonable.
by Daddio2009 June 15, 2009 2:10 PM PDT
I prefer to spend my money on an event-basis only. Some months there are no new releases that I care to own...and I would still have to pay? Nope, not for me.
Reply to this comment
by Eric_Moseman June 15, 2009 2:27 PM PDT
"If you want to support artists, download an album via bittorrent and send the band a check for $1.00. That is 5-10 times more then they would get if you walked into a store and bought it. Then go to their show if they come to your town, that is how they really make money. "

Good idea! I am going to swipe car from a dealer, and send a check to the workers who made the car! Anyone know their addresses?

Eric
Reply to this comment
by pentest June 15, 2009 3:44 PM PDT
Wow, amazing ignorance.

Comparing a digital copy to a physical object is ludicrous and only shows your lack of understanding.

Record companies are thieves, the musicians only start getting pennies on the dollar after they pay back the production and promotion costs.

This means that even after the record companies get paid back for any upfront costs, the bands are still getting raped.

Of course all of this is wasted since you actually don't understand that copyright infringement is not theft and artists get ripped off from major labels.

Production, distribution, and marketing is so cheap these days that the record labels are 100% useless and only serve to inflate the cost of music because they have to pay people who are wholly unnecessary.
by Eric_Moseman June 15, 2009 5:13 PM PDT
"Wow, amazing ignorance."

I agree. Your ignorance is impressive. Here is the thing. Just as the autoworkers agreed to work for the auto makers, so do the artists agree to do work for the labels.

You can argue about digital copies vs physical products, but they are really quite similar once they both enter the marketplace; they are product.

If I wish to be an "artist" I will release my art on my own. It is very simple to do in this digital world. According to Bittorrent users, it is then ok for one person to distribute that file to as many users as he wishes, with zero payment to me, the artist.

If I wish to be a "star," I use a major label to distribute my "product." someone stealing my product does not benefit me either.

Sorry, regardless of how you rationalize it, illegal music "sharing" does not do artists any good, aside from perhaps getting some PR out of it.

I do not like labels, but I loathe thieves.

Eric
Reply to this comment
by pentest June 15, 2009 6:39 PM PDT
A CD is not lost when one downloads it. It is still sitting in the store. I realize it is a difficult concept for you. You steal the car and it is gone. What if I were to go to the lot, take pictures and build my own? Did the automaker lose anything.

You have absolutely no credibility since you don't have the intelligence to differentiate copyright infringement with theft. I realize you were handed talking points to regurgitate, but even you should know the difference.

The band pays 100% of the production, distribution and marketing costs, why should people not directly support the artists and refuse to give the majority of the money to the very people who didn't earn it

Music sharing does lots of bands good. Metallica would have never got a record deal had they not encourage tape trading.
by clynx June 15, 2009 5:18 PM PDT
ISP's should not be content providers. Of course we will not get true quality service by the current method. Even if all the pirating went away they would come up with something else to justify controlling use. Say not letting one look at other content providers or news? Not all file sharing is pirating like these ISP's would like us to think. We need ISP's that are open and where bandwidth is their only hurdle to be competitive about. When they are all about controlling content and slowing use and fixing prices we are not getting a good service for our buck.
Reply to this comment
by ofmyony June 15, 2009 11:23 PM PDT
Have an all you can eat model for $10 per month. Have a rotating library of songs. Have new releases available for the first month and then put them into rotation. Have all the music labels involved and you have a winner, all music must be drm free and free to download and stream (I like streaming better than downloading), but I still want to be able to download certain songs.

In this model you get everything you want, free downloads, streaming, drm free, all titles available. Here is the money maker, the rotating library! Your customers will stay to get new music plus download songs they didn't get the month before. It will work you just need to focus on the rotation of songs and how to keep the audience happy but not give them to much.

Most people don't like to sit down for hours downloading music but from time to time if they hear a song they like streaming and want to download the song, it's available with a single click.
Reply to this comment
by jchanski21 June 16, 2009 8:08 AM PDT
What happens if I want to download a song that isn't "on rotation" this month? Back to the current situation - pay a buck for it, or hop over to the torrents. Same problem with only having one label. If I want a song that isn't available... this service is essentially worthless.
by Eric_Moseman June 16, 2009 4:34 AM PDT
"A CD is not lost when one downloads it. It is still sitting in the store. I realize it is a difficult concept for you. You steal the car and it is gone. What if I were to go to the lot, take pictures and build my own? Did the automaker lose anything."

The concept is indeed difficult for me. Taking pictures of the car and building one's own would be just fine, keeping in mind he could be sued if he used patented technology. The likelihood of building a car by hand that compares with the original would be nearly nil.

Also, if one took a picture of the notes in a song, or perhaps the 1's and 0's that make up the digital version, he could proceed to get the instruments and recreate the song as well. That would not be illegal.

What thieves tend to do is rationalize or justify their actions. A car thief might say, "I only borrowed it for a bit," whereas a digital thief will say, "copyright infringement is NOT stealing," or ""I am only listening to it for a while, so why pay?"

If you go to a show for a smaller, unsigned band, do you buy a CD to support them, or do you go find it on bittorent and mail them a check? Just wondering how things work in your world.

Call it what you will to ease your conscience. I am sure many bands thank you.

Eric
Reply to this comment
by kyussmondo September 14, 2009 10:42 AM PDT
I would pay for unlimited downloads. Who wouldn't? It makes perfect sense for the consumer.

For the providers (iTunes, Virgin Media etc.), labels and artists it doesn't seem sustainable. How would the providers distribute the monthly revenue, would it equally break it up between the majors? One record company may argue that they have better material or sell more so deserve a bigger cut. Plus they will be getting the same regardless of whether people get a thousand albums or just one album. At least with pay per download you can easily see who the money goes to and if they sell a lot then they get more if they sell less then they get less. The artists get screwed either way but would most likely get a smaller cut as the label would probably be getting less.

It also doesn't scale well. Assuming iTunes went subscription and assuming the amount of users stayed the same then those users will probably start using a service like iTunes a lot more. The costs would go up but the revenue would remain stagnant. It makes no sense. It would cost Apple a small fortune to maintain the service for huge growth in usage. If people download at the moment then the revenue will rise to support the rising costs. Web 2.0 has forgotten the basics of accountancy and business. Facebook, YouTube, all of them are haemorrhaging cash with only wealthy investors keeping them afloat while they try and find a revenue model. Apple has a good understanding of this and that is why Apple will never offer iTunes Music Subscription. I doubt the labels would allow it anyway. The only way I see Apple offering it is if Spotify or another service can make an impact, but Napster and Rhapsody have already tried not to mention Spotify having cash problems themselves.
Reply to this comment
(29 Comments)
  • prev
  • 1
  • next
advertisement

Five New Year's resolutions for Google

Stakes are high as Google attempts to maintain one of the Internet's greatest cash machines while pushing into new and risky markets.
• Android event set for Jan. 5

For eBay sellers, a holiday hamster hangover

The gift frenzy over Zhu Zhu Pets leaves some power sellers feeling like they've just run a marathon--but the steep price tags lead to some impressive profits.

About Digital Noise: Music and Tech

Matt Rosoff is an analyst with Directions on Microsoft, where he covers Microsoft's consumer products and corporate news. He's written about the technology industry since 1995 and reviewed the first Rio MP3 player for CNET.com in 1998. He's also a bass guitarist and an avid collector (and digitizer) of LP records. DISCLAIMER: This blog contains the personal opinions of the author and does not necessarily represent the opinions of his employers or of CNET Networks. As an IT industry analyst, the author occasionally agrees to nondisclosure agreements from Microsoft or other companies, and he will not violate the terms of such agreements on this blog.

He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET.

Disclosure.

Add this feed to your online news reader

Digital Noise: Music and Tech topics

advertisement
advertisement

Inside CNET News

Scroll Left Scroll Right