iPod dying? It's already dead
There has been much blogorrhea on Tuesday over Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak's offhand comment to the Telegraph that the iPod would go the way of the transistor radio and the Sony Walkman, becoming a cheap and eventually boring commodity product.
iPod? Isn't that the music application for the iPhone?
News flash: it's already there. Sure, Apple will still sell millions of units every quarter, and it might even continue to grow unit sales and revenue for a while. But it's clear from Apple's most recent announcements that the company no longer views the iPod as its main vehicle for innovation--new (old) form factors, colors, and one interesting update are the kind of incremental tweaks you make to a cash cow product line, not the groundbreaking innovations that move markets forward.
Apple passed its mantle of innovation to the first iPhone a year ago, and that's where the action's going to be, from now on--multifunction devices with interesting new interfaces (touch is just the beginning) that act more like tiny computers than single-purpose devices. iPod? That's just another application icon on the iPhone deck.
(And here's something you'll never hear in a presidential debate: I was wrong. Specifically, I was wrong when I suggested that consumers would continue to favor single-function devices and that the iPhone's bet on convergence would sink it. I underestimated the power of the touch screen and Apple's relentless focus on ease of use, which have made the iPhone the first ultraportable computer for mere mortals.)
I appreciate Microsoft's latest Zune innovations, but they needed to be in the product when it launched two years ago. MP3 players are becoming a commodity in which low price overrides new features--especially given how tight consumer spending is likely to be this holiday season. Microsoft isn't into commodities, unless it's got dominant market share, so look for the company to turn its attention to building a more competitive version of Windows Mobile. Zune will live on--as the music playback application for Microsoft's mobile phones.
Matt Rosoff is an analyst with Directions on Microsoft, where he covers Microsoft's consumer products and corporate news. He's written about the technology industry since 1995, and reviewed the first Rio MP3 player for CNET.com in 1998. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network. Disclosure.
Funny, there were a lot of large companies that easily had the same kind of following. Some that come to mind include Enron and WorldCom - Whose CEOs labelled detractors as "fools" and "a-holes" for questioning their future outlooks.
Anyone that thinks a company can become so big that it can't fall hasn't been reading the news lately.
I'm sorry if I implied that Apple's business practises were similar to Enron or Worldcom - I agree with you the differences are like night and day. Enron and Worldcom partook in some particularly nasty accounting fraud and it cost many of their staunchest defenders a lot of money.
My comment was directed at your attitude that "anyone that challenges Apple's continual growth is a fool." The similarity I was trying to point to was the attitude of their CEOs and Wall Street in general back in the 1990s when they labelled anyone who dared question them "fools."
The only fools are those who DON'T question or challenge these behemoths - there are plenty of examples of behemoths and Wall Street darlings that have fallen - Apple very well can, too.
Do a little history research, and you see why Windows has a larger market share. Quality has NOTHING to do with it. Windows was preinstalled on cheap PC clones, and people buy based on cheap. Geometric progression over the years. And now, it's closer to 85% of the world. A lot of PC's are running Linux instead of Windows, and Apple has been gaining market share as well.
We tried Vista in our print and graphic business, and discarded it fairly quickly. None of our equipment would work with it. No drivers, and the equipment manufacturers weren't planning to write drivers either. So we stayed Mac.
Not defending The Woz, but Apple has a track history of abandoning its patrons. From the get go, It unceremoniously dropped the Apple II line of computers despite a very loyal customer base at the time. This is partially understand but their customer service 20 years ago made it very clear. Apple II users were no longer its concern. I see this happening again over and over. The I=Pod is now likely to die off in favour of the I-Touch and I-Phone. I can see the day when Apple will eventually kill off the I-Pod line and simply tell those customers its time to upgrade. Here's a scary thought (and completely theoretical): one day your update of the I-Tunes software will simply say 'upgrade not possible, device not supported'. Then you'll call customer support (good luck there too), and they'll tell you that you can't access the i-tunes store without the latest software. But that's theoretical only. Or is it? Remember one thing, you don't own the software or the device, you lease the rights to use it.
The article does not say Apple will die (it does praise iPhone, does it not?), just that single-function devices are gradually being phased out. I have ALWAYS believed that ultimately, media devices will just become computers of different form factors. Smartphones have more or less killed PDAs, the iPhone has taken us closer to true handheld computers, this is how we are heading. Yes, there will be an overlap for a while, especially because handheld computers will still cost a fair bit more, but prices will fall, features will match "regular PCs" and single-function devices will in time become limited and obsolete by definition.
Media devices will essentially be true PCs of different form factors - desktop, laptop, handheld; handhelds might even threaten laptops as they will be truly mobile, able to be used on-the-go and not only when you have a place to sit. This is where we will be, IMO, 2 decades tops.
And when Internet speeds and security advance sufficiently, even mobile PCs might simply connect to the central desktop hub at home or work to access data and programs. Meaning they themselves would not carry the data, but simply be a collection of interface methods - touchscreen, mic, camera, etc. that access data from the central hub. They would then simply be "Personal Interface Devices."
Funny, were it not that Apple had already used the name, iPod would have been the PERFECT name for a handheld computer or Personal Interface Device. More than just music, photos, video; a complete media pod.
This is one of the reasons why, as much as it will hurt, the current financial crisis is actually needed for a healthy economy in the future. The throw-away mentality (people needing new toys, always) goes hand-in-hand with bad mortgages - people living outside their means.
It can be likened to the result of years of forrest fire prevention when a large forrest fire breaks out.
The good thing to all this, is we will probably see a number of manufacturers come out of this crisis with a better eye to longevity in their products, as consumers start to demand it again (it wasn't long ago that cheap plastic was the exception, and usually attributed to cheap, third-world products)
I do know a few boomers who have iPods and maybe even some offspring of boomers, too.
my third-gen 10 gig is attached to my home media player... original shuffle is for workouts, camping, and travel... my touch is my pda, internet tablet, email... and provides music in my car. When I am done with the touch.. it will stay in the car (or my wife's) or I will find another use for it.
Just like our Macs.. they seem to last forever.. and remain functional and relevant (my old blue iMac is now my daughter's and runs OS X fine). I also run 10.5x perfectly on my 12 inch PowerBook (16 mb vram, 1g ram).
When I get an iMac or MacbookPro this winter, the powerbook will go upstairs and be used for email/internet/music.
I have far more than 2,000 songs on my iPod. I have no use for a multi-function gadget that does far too many things poorly. My 80GB classic has far more features than I will ever use. I just want to be able take ALL my music wherever I may go.
The advent of the iPhone was no less flashy and unimpressive then when Jurassic Park, or "3-in-one printers" first came out. I have no desire or need for an iPhone. I personally like having some distinctions between my communications and my entertainment. It keeps things simple. The lines between business and pleasure should be a lot less blurry than they are now becoming. I remain unimpressed by the faddish desire to pack everything into smaller and smaller portable gizmos. Keep it simple stupid.
And you kids get off my lawn!
;-)
How is 2000 songs on a music player ludicrous? I have over 2000 songs on mine and I would like more space. It is very convenient to be able to listen to any music I like whenever I like - on the bus, in the car, out for a walk, at work, etc.
While nobody NEEDS an MP3 player, they are not a fad (just the next wave after the walkman, discman, etc.). They are not particularly expensive (my 30GB Zune cost $100).
It is true that consumers are more and more buying semi-disposable products, but that doesn't mean the products themselves (or the features they have) are themselves worthless.
Personally I fight with my iPod all the time - simple things like shuffling a playlist should have been in the product years ago. A real "jukebox mode" like what iTunes has had for years should be simple to implement.
What I think he might be saying is that a lot of people buy large iPods with space they will never use because they don't have large collections and are likely to be fair weather music fans. If thats the case it certainly makes sense that you should buy according to what you actually use, but we are a society of copycats. A lot of us would like to believe that we could never have been cought up in the mortgage mess but the fact of the matter is that people bought ridiculously large and expensive homes just to keep up with their neighbors. The exact same thinking applies to the size and make of portable music players, cell phones, PDAs, PCs, clothing and schools we attend.
People still buy what they don't need because it makes them feel accepted socially and thats not going to change unless we happen to slip into a depression.
Now to @magwa999....
You are obviously not into music. When the iPod first came out, it was the "holy grail" not only for me, but also for many other music lovers. To now be able to carry 120GB worth of music for less than $300.00 on a device that fits in the palm of your hand still blows my mind. That is incredibly cheap for (arguably) the best media player on the market. For comparison, the Sony Budu Kahn cassette walkman that was available in the early '90's and was probably the best walkman ever made was more expensive than any iPod ever. It didn't sound nearly as good (looking back, cassettes really sucked. Dolby B or C anyone?), it was incredibly bulky in comparison when you count having to carry a box of cassettes everywhere, and no where near as elegant as the iPod.
"Having 2000 songs on an ipod is ludicrous and a waste of time and money." Maybe for you magwa999, but not for the rest of us.
And correct me if I am wrong, but aren't most current radios transistor-based? They are still included in every new car made.
The only way to go from here is to eliminate the device and integrate music playback into the devices we already own like our cell phones. And since apple's already doing that, he's not even criticizing them like everyone's saying he is.
Same with iPods. It's not about the player. It's about the total usage experience. It all just works, from the iTunes store on. How much time do you want to spend screwing around with the gadget, versus listening to what you bought it for? How much is your time worth? It doesn't take much of it to justify the iPod's cost.
I'd love a MAC, just can't afford one, as most people can't, and won't go into debt to get one. Jobs dropped the ball with that. He should have gone the route of Windows and licensed the Apple OS to anyone that wanted to put it with their hardware and I firmly believe that Apple would be on top at this point.
There was a point, just befor Jobs came back aboard Apple (i so should have snatched up some of the stock when it was cheap just before htey announced his return..lol) but Motorola and a couple of othe companies were making superior computers to the Apple hardware, he came back and stopped the licensing. I think that was a huge mistake.
Same goes for laptops now.
Mac became too avant guarde, and stays that way, for its own good.
If you've got a superior product make it affordable to the masses and they will buy it. People may be a bit tired and frustrated with Windows, but as a whole not enough to shell out the extra money for a MAC, we just can't afford it.
I always wanted an Ipod, but couldn't see spending that kind of money when there are players from Creative, and now other manufacturers that rival the capabilities at a much lower price point and on top of it don't try to dictate which formats I play on it.
The iPod Touch is really tasy looking, but the thing that irks me is the lack of removable memory. That just seems like a given now. Tho i do think it was excellent marketing to basically make an iPhone (without the phone) for people who wanted the toy but didnt want the contract...
anyway..thats my 2 cents...
Oh, yes, he was talking about using a Mac, not an iPod. The author then extended the comparison to iPods. Besides, listening to music while working (alone, as it would be rude to do it while with a customer) doesn't necessarily mean you are "screwing around."
The non-fans have a wealth of choice - decent budget machines, video specialist machines, audiophile machines, and so on.
The irony is I think - as the mac eats into the ubiquity of the PC market Apple will find there stranglehold on portable audio and smartphones eroding.
Lookit, folks - First off, it took nearly 40 years for the 'transistor radio' to die off, when it finally crashed with the "boom-box" fad of the 1980's (some of us are old enough to have bought a few of them).
In some ways, it never did die - the transistor radio was the first truly portable music player. The iPod itself can trace its roots back to it. In that context, the iPod ain't dead. Ubiquitous, yes - but certainly not dead.
Eventually, yes, something else will take the iPod's place. But that's about as prophetic as saying "OAMG! One day each and every one of you reading this article will die!" Well, yeah, that tends to happen eventually.
OTOH, it's not very insightful to go around saying it, now is it?
/P
But the point of the article--which I agree with--is that the focus of innovation for Apple is the iPhone. You won't see any significant innovations to the iPod line in the future, just tweaks as the product enters the mature phase of its life-cycle. The boom-box is a commodity now--yes, you can still buy them, but they're all relatively cheap and similar. The iPod isn't there yet, but is headed that way as innovation shifts to devices with more functions.
There will be a place for the iPod and other music-only devices for many years to come, just like boom-boxes continue to be sold 20+ years after they were the must-have item, but the features will settle out to some common ones among all the competitors, as those who want more advanced features will turn to the iPhone or whatever the current device for innovation is. The more things change, the more they stay the same. :-)
At least Matt you gave me a chuckle with your last paragraph, dude I just cannot stop laughing, I just have to quote this one "I appreciate Microsoft's latest Zune innovations" ROFL.
As one poster pointed out, walk into any Apple store they are packed and they are selling. And people are happy to wait in line. Enough said.
Where does CNET pick up these so-called journalist, what did they have a fire sale at Joe's Bar & Grill and College of Journalism?
I have a 60gb video iPod, so if I wanted something cool like Cover Flow I would have to go out and buy a new iPod because they won't add that level of an enhancement to the older iPods... where as Microsoft is going for a universal concept with updates, Apple tends to base theirs solely on each generation. I'm fairly certain the 60gb video iPod (5gen) is capable of doing cover flow and all the other stuff that the new Classic iPods can do, but we won't be seeing that without hacking it or something.
Apple loves you disposable people who will buy the next new product even when the one you bought last year works perfectly.
Honestly, who needs to buy a new Nano every year just because it comes in a different color?
Even the 'wonderful' Apple will not be able to maintain the innovative momentum required to keep the iPhone a top seller. As with every other tech product, a new concept will eventually emerge as technology convergence produces ever more sophisticated and magical devices for us to lust after.
I would agree that Apple is spending more of the R&D on the ipod touch and ipod phone as there are more potential there as phone applications are a relative untapped market.
If you don't have the right facts don't bother with stupid comments....
Or how about my cycling buddies that wear Shuffles when they ride? Are they to stuff an expensive iPhone in their back pocket in the hopes it doesn't get crushed when they inevitably fall off their bikes?
Im sure I could sit here all day and come up with scenarios for the need for iPods and not iPhones. Not everyone in this world is a 38 year old white guy with a penchant for technology, or has the funds to buy a multi-year cell phone data plan. There are actually others that find the iPod sufficient for their own unique needs.
Im afraid your article expresses a very narrow view of the world.
I doubt the brand will completely die, but I think Apple will be struggling to come up with enough funky new features to maintain that lead.
The competition will catch up in terms of functionality, and will be offering the same stuff at a cheaper price unless Apple lower their prices, at which point they'll become... ordinary.
Of course, if they manage to be the first in with flexible OLED screens or something like that, they might have a chance at buying the brand a little more time...
It's the same with Windows, Vista wasn't an improvement, but it doesn't have to be, people will use vista anyway, in due time.
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by professionaladventurer
October 8, 2008 10:09 AM PDT
- Aaaaaand yet, transistor radios are still making people rich. Before the ipod touch (or Iphone) the last innovative ipod was the first. (don't call adding video to a small hand held device innovation, it's not, what it is, is good business). So Appel was stamping license plates and printing their own money from 1998-2007- good for them. Microsoft has been reusing the same old code for ages. Innovation at big business is a freakin' myth.
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