Why text messaging may be on the way out

I'm sure the very thought of text messaging entering the final stages in its life is a bit too much to fathom right now, considering Gartner believes 2 trillion messages will be sent this year and most analysts think text messaging will grow rapidly, but I'm not so quick to jump on the bandwagon.

The way I see it, more and more companies are realizing that the cell phone is an ideal place to feature chat applications and with popular devices like the iPhone leading that charge, I think text messaging growth will be stymied sooner than you think.

Just look at Google's latest announcement for all the proof you need. According to the company, it has officially released a new version of Google Talk for the iPhone and iPod Touch, which will allow you to send Gmail messages to friends without the need for any additional software or require to spend any cash to do it.

And it's that last component that could make all the difference in the world: it's free to use.

Let's face it -- text messaging prices are ridiculous. Can someone explain to me why I'm forced to pay around 20 cents per message for something so trivial? Of course, many people (especially those with kids) would rather spend money on the unlimited texting plan and be done with it, but it still isn't the ideal solution.

Instead, a service like Google Talk is. Granted, using Google Talk implies data charges and only those with the ability to get online will be able to use it, but I think this service is just the first step in a major movement that could change the way we interact with cell phones.

The way I see it, most people have proven that they would gladly interact with a cell phone keyboard, so that very critical issue is already set aside. And although text messaging is made available to everyone and anyone can interact with anyone else, the cost is the real sticking point.

If enough cell phones featured reliable and worthwhile chat applications that their friends actually used, I think the 2 trillion messages sent mark would be reduced by a significant margin and more people would be willing to use chat applications than text messaging.

But it's that level of engagement that matters most. Without one major leader in each market, chatting won't take off. Much like AIM in the US and MSN overseas, a dominating chatting application must emerge and have a large enough customer base that everyone's friends will be able to use it without the need for text messaging.

And although that may seem like a long way out, I'm not so sure that's true. Instead, I believe that Apple has transformed the cell phone industry and more cell phones will feature the kind of capabilities we've come to enjoy from smartphones. And as that happens, chat applications will become more ubiquitous as well. All the while, our reliance on text messaging as a communication medium will fall by the wayside.

Google Talk is just the first step in eroding text messaging use and creating an environment that's dictated by chatting applications and online interaction.

It may not happen overnight, but rest assured that text messaging won't be around for long and it may even be gone before you know it.

Want to know what Don is up to? Follow him on Twitter and FriendFeed.

[jerquiaga]

The other problem is that you would have to have either an always-on ability or a way to notify people that you want to chat with them. Text messaging doesn't require that you have a program loaded. You just send the message and it gets delivered to the phone. A web-based iPhone app isn't going to replace texting, because people aren't going to leave Safari open on the Google Chat page waiting for people to send them a message. And since Apple won't allow programs that run in the background through their store, the only way to have some sort of notification service would be to jailbreak your iPhone, which the masses aren't going to do either. Unless there is some sort of major shift towards open devices and unlimited data plans (also not super likely), I'm pretty sure none of this will come to pass, except for with the technorati that Don seems to represent so well.

[xZero2007x]

Don, I'm not sure how many blogs of yours I've read, or how many cnet readers who like to bash on the editors hate you, but you've brought up a very good point with sufficient logic and sources to back it up. The fact that google messaging (http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-9983680-94.html?tag=cnetfd.mt) will be free IS a first step in going away from text messaging. You were right to admit that Google Talk assumes one has a data plan or a wi-fi connection, but it's better than nothing, and they key words are that it won't happen over night.

If anything, I would think it's a bit early to hope for something, but the industry needs a messaging service with a large enough client base (or a service that allows you to connect to several of those client bases, such as Pidgin--good example would be how it's available on several [though not mainstream] devices such as the Nokia N800/810 Internet Tablets) in order to secure texting's downfall.

It IS ridiculous that we're paying a pretty fine price for something trivial, especially when it doesn't cost much to host such a service (http://news.cnet.com/8301-10784_3-9982251-7.html?tag=blog.1), but it's capitalism, and nothing's wrong with that if we want to achieve a comfortable lifestyle in the first place.

Because of news like this, your point that the iphone changed the industry really does have some backing to it instead of hearing it from a fanboy's mouth. There IS a difference between being a fanboy and saying meaningful things accompanied with sufficient logic and sources, and this article's a rare example of the ladder.

[~Neo~]

You've got to be kidding me right? People are just figuring this out? I have been using IM applications like Verichat since 2004. I don't text message I IM, using data thank you. Wow people are slow

[alegr]

Texting will go way of a pager. Anyone remember those?

[jiri_novak]

6 years ago europe had millions of messages sent every day and nobody knew in US what text messaging is... i kinda disagree with you. I have blackberry with IM and I don't use it, I don't know anybody who does except few geeks. Why? I don't to send 20 messages down and back, i want to send one simple message in a subway and get one silly response 5 minutes later. Do you really pay $0.20 for a message? come on

p.s. maybe you should do a research before you talk about Google Talk nobody uses (53mm aol vs 22million yahoo vs 800k google) ... how about Meebo Mobile?

[spammer2k5]

I agree with jiri_novak, Dude, do your research.. texting will be gone if the mobile phone is gone.. don't compare it with pagers, because you cant conveniently reply to a paged message unlike in texting.

[writingislove]

Here's the problem with your logic. It's based on two incorrect assumptions: IM is more efficient than texting and texting is expensive.

I have AIM on my phone and I do use it, but as earlier comments mentioned, it is way less efficient than texting. IM is much slower, you can send less text at a time, and it requires running a program (all the time, if you want to replace texting). Not only this, but it isn't completely free as it requires airtime. Texting, on the other hand, is built in with the phone's software so it doesn't require that you do anything to use it. It's already there, it's easy--just type and send--and the delay between messages is much less.

The second assumption--texting is expensive--may have been true 5 years ago, but the price now is so reasonable, IM practically isn't worth the airtime! Nowadays you can get unlimited text and picture messages for a family of 4 for $30 a month. Hardly far from an ideal solution.

I do agree that using the internet to make texting free is the ideal solution, but IM just isn't going to cut it. It's slow and it's inefficient. We'll think of something but I don't see anyone throwing texting out the window any time soon.

[meenoo5]

i hate you, don.

[Composer_1777]

Also not that many people have I phones around the world and even in the U.S., there are 250 million cell phone users? (i dunno how true that is). How many have an i phone? So i think it will take longer than you expect, Don. I get the point you're making that all phones will start to include a google talk, and improve that to the point of replacing texting... I'm not sure how fast that would happen.

[dmuzaf]

Dude I read a few lines and decided that you didn't know what you were talking about.. sure cell phones now have wifi so we don't need to pay for the data plan but then why use your cell phone? every one has a laptop these days just IM using that you boob... oh and I'm pretty sure sooner or later some one will figure out how to use your laptop as a cell phone using one of those GPRS cards perhaps then you can write an article about why cell phones may be on the way out.. read the paper, take a dump or a walk you seem to be running out of ideas.

[norjeolo]

Don, it does seem like a great idea and good hopes for cell phones and it's crazy text charges, but with an app runnig at all time in order to get a message it wont work. It's great to have data plans and be able to receive e-mails, etc. but when running an app all the time, the life of the battery wont be much and people would not be happy with that. There is a lot to think about when trying to deal with an app running on cellphone and not just assume that everyone will have unlimited data plan as well. Sure, its cool if your company is paying for the phone and unlimited data plan, where you can do what you want with it, but for regular people trying to look cool with the newest gadget, etc. and couple millions other people, making a decision to switch to a much more expensive phone with, most likely, specific company *cough *cough (AT&T). People wont be willing to jump on that baby wagon anytime soon. I personally hate that text messages are so expensive. If you really think about how much it really cost to send a Text, for its 160 character and its size in kb... you are paying more for text than your internet at home! well, that's if you're a text maniak like some teenagers! but..unless people complain about it and as well as having free incoming calls ( LIKE THE REST OF THE WORLD)...things wont change and the USA will be stuck with the big companies screwing everyone!

[nite41]

i think text messages are here to stay! for quite a long time. the only time text messages will become obsolete is when the call charges will be lower than texting charges. even then i guess, texting will continue. coz if you want to send an important message through and you're in class/meeting, you wouldnt call someone! just slide your phone under your table and text away! the way i do it; lol!!

[danielszabo1981]

just wanted to give don a hug. the effort was there for this one, even if the fan-base wasn't.

[metman787]

I think Aple is doing it right with the iPhone. They will still allow you to get IM's from your service (AOL, Yahoo, GTalk) while not running the app in the background. Their notification service is a great leap forward to always being connected, much like blackberry BES. I hope text messages go the way of the dinosaur because they are really to expensive for a 160 character message. I pray IM takes over, that would save everyone roughly $20

[tsatsut]

just get a blackberry!! jeez iphony is gonna be extinct soon....n apple fan boys save ya comments.

[bpob1977]

Why would I use chat on my cell phone when I could just call someone and avoid having to deal with trying to type on that gawd-awful cell-phone keyboard? At least with a text message it is a quick and convenient way to get a message to someone. Texting doesn't require the receiver to be immediately available, and is often more convenient than voice mail. Chatting delivers none of these benefits.

[HarrisNasution]

Do you think millions of people in developing countries will convert to iPhone or any mobile phones with always-on data plans anytime soon? You've got to be kidding. Indeed, please do your research throughly before writing an article predicting the death of text messages.

Millions in this world rely on text messages exclusively in place of voice calls as voice minutes cost more than text messages. (In most countries in this world, providers do not even promote US-style minutes plans. They simply charge calls by the minute.) Data plans, while available, are just not affordable for the mass, especially in developing world.

[dirty55409]

If there's one thing I like about the Iphone it's that it made waves in the cellphone industry and other companies will have to step it up to play ball with Apple. Since I am a big anti-apple consumer, that's where my admiration stops. lol but I do think texting will become obsolete some day. with BlackBerry Messenger, I can text anyone that has a BB which a lot of my friends and coworkers do. I would love to take that $20 a month unlimited texting charge off of my bill.

[carydc2]

Everyone, Wake Up. This is a Global Economy. Just because it plays in Peoria does not mean it plays in Tokyo, Beijing, Budpest, Bagdad, Cairo, London or Madrid. We are NOT the center of the freggin Universe.

Just because we are using Instant Message on Phones until the cows come home does not mean the rest of the world is. The Rest of the world is light years behind us and they are driving the world economy right now.

There are multiple Millions of Cellphone Users in China alone. They ALL Text in Chinese. I know because my Wife and Son do it to keep in touch and so do my wives' sisters.

This is a primary quick method to communicate. I use it too to talk to her in English. So come on. Get the BLINDERS Off. Smell the Crap you are shoveling. We are No Longer the Economy that is driving the Globe. Face it we are Yesterday. They are Tomorrow. We need to stop being so complacent and get back in the game. Until we do and do so competitively we will continue to sink into this quagmire we are in now. Nothing short of a major miracle is going to improve the economy. Cheap Gas is Gone. The Boom Economy with it.

Now, lets get serious and come up with ways to have real time translation in line and not after the fact. Make the Star Trek Translators Reality.

Better yet, make Solar Power Efficient and Inexpensive and ubiquitous.

Get most of us off of the grid.

Put super efficient solar in cars so that between regenerative power and extremely efficient lithium batteries we can drive as fast and far as a normal tank of gas and charge for further travels while driving that distance.

That is worthy of these brains to be working.

[stylingduke]

Hi Don,

You bring an interesting position that clearly is not founded on sound facts. I would like to point out the lack of strenth in each of your main points.

1) I think text messaging growth will be stymied sooner than you think.
Gartner and analysists do not merely "think" that txt messaging will grow rapidly but it's based on research (Nick Ingelbrecht, research director for Gartner). These are not mere gutt feelings basec on personal txting or chatting experience but worldwide market data collecting. Where do you get the idea that the txt msging will be end sooner than later?

2) Google Talk for the iPhone. & Without one major leader in each market, chatting won't take off
Besides costs, which is your number argument for the disappearance of txt messaging, Google Talk seems to be the second strength of your argument. Google talk is a good application, I currently use w/ my Gmail...along my Trillian, that I use w/ MSN, Aim and Yahoo...I've abandoned ICQ a while back. In order for chatting applications to even begin to chip away at txt msg, you not need only a leader but a clear cut dominating force in the chat space that all the others must bow to...like a Walmart of retailers. Otherwise everyone will do their own thing as they wish.

3) Granted, using Google Talk implies data charges and only those with the ability to get online will be able to use it.
Believe it or not, this should not be taken for granted. This is a huge barrier to Google talk or any chat app to dominate this txt msg space. Most phones can get online but in a limited fashion vs pda's/smartphone's almost full Internet capabilities. Most people, believe it or not, like their phone or the purpose of using it as a phone first and foremost due to various reasons. Smartphones is growing at 33 percent each year thorugh 2012 (http://www.cio.com/article/155001/In_Stat_Worldwide_Smartphone_Market_to_Grow_More_Than_Percent_Each_Year_Through_/1) but as you mentioned cost is a big barrier in everything. Smartphones are usually not the free phones that people get with a new/upgrade service and they usually require the hefty monthly data plan they MUST sign up for. Thus this prevents people from making the big leap thus inhibiting them from taking advanatage of what smartphones offer...meaning more txt msg as it allows per txt/use vs a hefty monthly recurring fee.

4) It's free to use vs 20cents to use. Most providers only charge 10-15cents a txt msg.
Cingular: 200txt/$5(2.5c), 1,500/$15(1c), $20 unlimited. vs Data $30/$40
Verizon: 250/$5, 500/$10, 1500/$15 vs Data $25/$45
T-Mobile: 400/$5, 1000/$10, Uliminited/$15 vs Data $20
* Some providers provide free Incoming Txt msgs and free In Network txt msgs which brings down the cost further.
As you can clearly see the cost of txt msg is way cheaper than data plans. I, personally, have both but your argument rides on the whole idea of cost. Cost is always a factor in people's minds, espcially montly fees/cost liket that of data. Most people can send a txt here and will for 10c to 20c a txt but the data per use vs the 15c/kb. Data is not cheap.

5) It may not happen overnight, but rest assured that text messaging won't be around for long and it may even be gone before you know it.
I don't know what you mean "for long" but it's going to be around for a very long time. The reason are:
a) Ease of use. No download, installing, needing it to run in the background (which reduces battery life)
b) Relatively inexpesive cost due to it's various options vs data's flat plan.

The idea of Chat applications replacing txt msg is like the idea that "instant msg" will replace email a few years back. The IMs will merely supplement email and txt msg and not replace them. Txt msg are not pagers (medium vs device). Even the purpose of pagers still exists today believe it not, they are just embedded into cell phones to what is now called Txt msgs. 83 1238715716 913853.