Blu-ray is doomed
In the past, I've always felt that Blu-ray would win the high-def format war. After that, I wasn't necessarily sure what the future would hold for the format.
Would it be the success DVD was? Would it flop worse than LaserDisc? Would it cater to a slightly more advanced crowd but never reach the mainstream? Would it be a downright loser?
For a while, I decided to hold off from making any judgements until I could see how the Blu-ray group handled its victory. And while it has only been a relatively short amount of time since that win, the end is already in sight and the format has no hope of survival.
As James McQuivey, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester Research explained to me this week on my Digital Home podcast, Blu-ray isn't quite the shining light on the mountain that some believe it is. Instead, it's a vulnerable product that has considerable work to do before Sony can even think it will stack up to the DVD.
And while all of McQuivey's logic was well-founded and well-researched, I couldn't help but take it a step further and use it as the backbone for my prediction--Blu-ray will die as a forgotten warrior in the long and arduous battle of media formats.
Reason 1: No flexibility
First and foremost, Blu-ray is not flexible, nor is it portable. Doesn't sound like a big problem? Think again. According to McQuivey, the "DVD is extremely usable and you can take that disc and play it in your car, at a friend's house; you can take that DVD and after you're done with it, you can give it to a friend and they can play it at their house."
"Blu-ray players won't be like that for quite some time," he continued. "Because there just won't be nearly enough Blu-ray players in the home to justify even doing something like that."
Realizing that people want to take media and bring it wherever they go, how can we possibly justify saying that Blu-ray will win or even make a dent in the DVD market? McQuivey's point is not only a good one, but it reflects one key point that some have missed--media formats go far beyond the idea that we only care about viewing what's on them. Instead, we are looking for ease of use, availability, and portability--three facets that Blu-ray doesn't provide and probably won't for quite some time.
Reason 2: The issue of looks
HD has always been pretty and everyone knows that an additional 600 lines of resolution are important, but let's be honest--can anyone truly say that the difference in quality between DVDs and Blu-ray is so great that the thought of using that old format is unbearable? Of course not.
McQuivey explained to me that, "the average person can't tell the difference between DVD quality and HD content...so a DVD looks pretty good for most people, especially when they use a DVD upconverter."
I've said it once and I'll say it again--the difference in quality between DVDs and Blu-ray is not nearly great enough to justify spending hundreds of dollars on a player. And as I'm not alone in that assertion, what will that do to the idea of portability that I mentioned above? If people are unwilling to buy Blu-ray players and portability is a key factor in DVD's success, how can anyone possibly say Blu-ray will be a similar success?
Reason 3: Cost, cost, cost
The price of Blu-ray players is simply too high for people to even want them. Why would someone who can't bring media wherever they would like and cannot tell the difference in quality actually waste time spending hundreds of dollars on a player?
At this point, pure logic should come into the discussion. To put it succinctly--Blu-ray will only do well if players are readily available, and players will be readily available if prices are lower. In order for prices to be lower, production costs will need to come down, and so far, production costs are still quite high. And all this is irrespective of the other issues already plaguing the device. Do you see what I'm getting at here? There's trouble in paradise.
Reason 4: The clock is ticking
Right now, Blu-ray is relatively safe because broadband speeds aren't nearly where they should be and HD media downloads are plagued by many of the same issues affecting Blu-ray. But that won't be true for too much longer.
As McQuivey pointed out, HD media downloads probably won't be too big for at least another five years, which means Blu-ray must make a huge splash in that time or face total annihilation. Of course, with crazy player prices and a slew of issues it needs to confront before then, what are the chances of anything like that happening?
The end is near for Blu-ray and there's nothing anyone can do about it. Say what you will, but Toshiba should be ecstatic that it didn't get caught in the middle of this quagmire and got out when it did.
But if you don't believe me, take McQuivey's take on it: "On many levels, Toshiba should be glad it lost (the high-def format war)."
Don Reisinger is a technology columnist who has written about everything from HDTVs to computers to Flowbee Haircut Systems. Don is a member of the CNET Blog Network, and posts at The Digital Home. He is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.
So Blu-Ray has plenty of time to bring costs down.
At some point in the future, DVDs will no longer be manufactured, and will be completely replaced by Blu-Ray disks.
My apologies for responding on Twitter. I typed more than I expected to.
I see several factors at work here. First, the adoption of HDTV. Without that, Blu-Ray is meaningless except to those of us that actually own HDTVs.
Second, the look of HDTV. Maybe it's me, but I've been collecting movies on everything from 8mm to 35mm (yes, I own a projector) to LD, and eventually DVD and HD/BR. I know there are people that can't tell the difference (my mom) but some people can (my dad). Then again, how many people are watching their Blu-Ray players with S-Video cables, or HDMI cables with their TV set to 480p? I'd really like to see if people can't tell the difference in blind tests.
Downloads are flawed for a few reasons. They're even less portable than Blu-Ray discs because you have to bring the whole unit with you to your friend's house, you currently can't play them in the car, and I'm afraid of too much control from studios (Disney, anyone?). "Sorry, this film has gone back in the vault".
First false fact in the argument: You can't tell the difference between Blu-ray and DVD. Bull. You obviously have never seen it... and definitely not on a true 1080p. The difference is awesome. The increase in resolution is 622%. The improvement in audio is quantum. The difference is overwhelming at times.
False fact 2: The difference between Blu-ray and DVD is much smaller than the difference between VHS and DVD. Rubbish. The gap is 622%, not including massive audio improvements. The jump from DVD to Blu-ray is much larger than the jump from VHS to DVD.
Irrelevant fact 1: I can't play a Blu-ray in my car. So what? I am supposed to cry or something?
False prophecy 1: Downloads will take over. Rubbish. You try downloading 20GB of anything and see how long it takes. Speeds will increase, but 17-20GB is going to take a long time for the next 6 years. You can skinny the files but then you wreck the quality. You need a minimum of 20MBits of video and 4.6Mbits of audio to match the quality of a Blu-ray. Downloads can't and won't for a long time.
Also, many of us are not getting out of the collecting business. I don't buy digital downloads. Too unsafe. I want the disc.
In short, the author is absolutely and completely wrong. Couldn't possibly be more wrong. Just as wrong as wrong can be. I mean 100% wrong with a 100% chance of being 100% wrong and a 0% chance of being 1% right.
As far as downloads of massively-compressed movies, who wants it? Just go get the SD version!
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Lets take a trip back to 1998, I saw DVD technology for the first time, the picture was crisp and clear, the sound was amazing. but i knew I didn't have the $500 for the player and the DVD's were $30 a piece. fortunately my girlfriend bought me one for xmas so I bought a couple of new movies, but I couldn't take them to my friends house without the player. then the next summer my friend got one for $300 and by xmas 2000, I bought one for my dad for $150.
The moral of this story is... the difference between DVD and Blu-ray is very similar to the difference between VHS and DVD. Is watching a DVD on an HDTV terrible, nope. but to sit back and say that there's very little difference between the two is a lot like saying that there's very little difference between SDTV and HDTV broadcasts.
As for the cost, now that the format war is over just give it a year or so and the player prices will be down to about $100 and the technology will get smaller and more portable and more accessible.
Now for the future of home movies I think that the Apple TV is a good idea but a feeble attempt. If I'm going to pay for a movie I want to keep it. thus therefore your going to need more storage. but its nice to just browse an online catalog, watch a trailer, download the movie and have it charge your credit card. but they could take a few cues from xbox live once you buy something you own the rights to download it as much as you want.
Downloading HD movies is still out of range for many people. A vast amount of Internet subscribers are still using dial-up. The format may not be as dramatic a change as when DVD replaced VHS, but that's due to more options compared to 20 years ago. That doesn't mean Blu-Ray won't be successful.
I sort of agree with the notion that all physical media is doomed. But, I give it another 25+ years before that comes to pass.
As to the comment of "DVD sales are slumping" ... get a clue, the whole economy is dead right now. We're not heading into a mere recession, we're likely heading to a depression. As a result, almost all sales are down, unemployment is up and the rich get richer. So, yes DVD sales are down, ask the MPAA and they'll confirm that for sure. There will always be a large number of people who want a tangible product for their money and therefore it will be a LONG time until physical distribution is dead.
1.Was DVD flexible when it first appeared? Was it as ubiquitous like it is now? How long did it take to get into cars? How long did it take to get into almost all homes?
I think the answers to these questions are something the author neglected to ask.
2.I had a professor that would always said "Perfection is only noticed in it's absence". In other words, once people see more HD content, they will undoubtedly see the difference in their old CRT home Television's quality. Does the author consider this? Has the author considered the fact that new "digital" films truly make for perfect HD home translations as compared to old films? I think these questions need to be explored before making such statements.
3. Cost? My first DVD player was as expensive as my PS3 and it didn't play games, music, and streaming video. Sony announced that next year's players will cost $200 and under. Did the author take into account the CD Burners cost over $1000 dollars when they first came out and were used by hospitals and government agencies? History should be taken into account, was this the case in the author's research for posting this article?
4.I will not speculate on this too much because speculation is for those who don't mind being eating crow. I will say that the 5 year mark the author states is within the timeframe that other "speculators" assume it will take the PS3 to sell nearly 40 million units. If players drop under $200 dollars by 2009, one would assume the momentum for Blue-ray would be hard to stop. Did the author think about simple facts as these?
I rarely comment on articles as these, but I didn't see much forethought in this article and it makes me wonder about just why these things were said.
1) With DVD player high saturation and the high cost of getting a blu-ray player, titles, and a home theater setup that takes advantage of the tech, it's seems to be marketed for to a more a/v proficient customer.
2) As technology advances more and more, what's to say that a more advanced and higher capacity media won't come down the pipeline within a few years? Will blu-ray have the staying power?
If blu-ray stands a chance, especially in the current financial down-turn, the prices on the players and media needs to drop sub $200 quickly as well as the price and depth of available titles. Prices will also have to drop on LCD and plasma TV's to give the technology a chance.
How long did Tapes take to fall off the shelf when both Tapes and DVDs were being distibuted? Everyone is still watching DVDs. Once their copy of the DVD is worn and they can't watch it anymore, they'll see that the price of a Blu-Ray has dropped and want to see that Classic movie in a sharper TV.
You keep seeing Disney "Remastering" their movies for DVD's with sound and picture quality. Now they can take the next step to an HD quality. What next? 3D?
TI makes a DLP 3D tv for 5grand. You can go to IMAX theaters and watch movies in 3D now using Polarized lenses. Superman Returns was one example.
Blu-Ray is NOT doomed. This is only the beginning and you're setting yourself up for failure.
Biggest reason for Blu-Ray being a technical blip is its $$$$ in an era of financial collapse ... one chance for survival is to get players down to less than $50 and recorders to less than $100 otherwise they are toast ...
A final observation: Many who post in here have few qualms about dropping money on technology ... it is good to remember that they are not the "Average Joe & Jane" ....
1. As someone else mentioned, from VHS to DVD, how long was the adoption period? Every new technology takes months/years for everyone to adopt it. This is NORMAL!! I don't think that's a relevant point.
2. Are you kidding me?? The difference is SOOO OBVIOUS!!!! Before I got my Blu-ray player, people asked me if I was going to update my whole DVD collection (over 200 dvds). I said no because that would be too expensive. Then I got the Blu-ray player and it blew all the old dvds out of the water!! I can go as far to say that regular dvds looks crappy and hurt my eyes. I CAN'T watch regular dvds anymore. Almost everyone I know agrees with this statement. Regular dvds have such bad quality on HDTVs!!!!
3. Same as #1. When everything new technology comes out, it is expensive!!! That doesn't stop people from buying it. A few years down the line, costs will go down. Sony already announced a $200 Blu-ray player for next year.
Does the author not know anything about the technology industry???? Everything stated is the normal progression of a new technology. Starts with early adopters until the general public takes it. Prices start high until costs get cheaper, than prices go down. Common business sense!
4. Downloads will take a while to overtake real physical HD discs. Granted the music industry quickly turned from CDs to MP3s. But MP3s download in a matter of minutes and take up only a few MBs. HD movies will take up GIGS of memory and take DAYS to download. And not to mention, why would people want to watch a HD movie on a 17" monitor when they can watch a Blu-ray on a 50" HDTV?
#4 is the only "reason" that is semi-valid. But it can go either way.
1. DVD was just as inflexible when it was released. Duh.
2. Your misinformed if you think that a DVD is as good looking as an HD device, and you seem to think that consumers are too stupid to realize that. HD is FAR SUPERIOR to SD even if it's not full 1080,
3. You have a point with cost, but the cost will lower like every other high-end consumer device has for the entire history of technology.
4. Broadband is nowhere close to being able to deliver a Movie in HD in any decent amount of time. ALL online movie venders send you movies that are HD only in marketing. Their "HD" is CRAP. It's not REAL HD, and cannot be due to bandwith restrictions. Their "HD" is the lowest quality possible to get the "HD" name. Also, People want to OWN movies, not perpetually rent them and/or be dependant on some company to supply them, only to cut the spicket whenever the company decides to.
Hopefully people won't read this article and ACTUALLY BELIEVE it's contents...
The prices for the players will come down dramatically, naturally, but I think many people will only want one if they can get a good selection of movies at non-nosebleed prices. When the price for an HD-DVD player came down to $200, it was worth it for me to buy one--but ONLY because it came with 6 free high-def titles, and I knew I'd have something to watch. I have bought maybe 1 or 2 high-def titles since, and even if my chosen format was not doomed to oblivion, I would not be rushing out to buy many more at the current prices.
Unless you're doing an A/B comparison, the comment about DVD looking "good enough" is right on the money. I have a 50" plasma (not full HD, but 1366x768) and regular DVD titles look FANTASTIC. HD looks better, yes, but not enough to cause me to rush out and replace lots of titles from my DVD library.
In my view, for blu-ray to survive, the cost of players AND titles needs to come down rather quickly. Otherwise it risks not being sufficiently "entrenched" by the time a better media format comes along, or digital downloading becomes sufficiently viable to render it pointless.
- by Pgm1 March 7, 2008 4:58 PM PST
- Don; I have to say I disagree and agree to a point; Blu Ray is not doomed however, but it will be adopted by videophiles who already have big screen HDTVs and big bucks. The majority of people will not be getting Blu Ray for quite a few years from now untill they replace their SD CRT tvs and the price of players and especially discs come way down in price. Out of all the people I know only 3 have HD TV at all myself included , I know over 40 people. The rest all have SD tv and CRTs to boot! So they are NOT going to buy a blu ray player anytime soon. As for me I'm still converting my VHS collection to DVD
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Showing 1 of 3 pages (66 Comments)even though I bought a combo HD BD player (I'm the only person in my circle who has an HD optical player of any kind.) I won't be converting all my DVD's to BD , I doubt half of the titles will ever even be released in BD anyway. many of the VHS titles I have were never even released on SD DVD! As for HD DVD the Chinese are going to be using it so even though as far as the west and Japan are Blu Ray, HD DVD will still be around somewhere , so don't feel bad those that are stuck with it you'll probably be able to get some movies and players for some time to come online from China. Downloads are not going to be practical in HD for most for some time yet and you'll still have to burn it to a blank Blu ray disk if you want to keep a permanent copy anyway.