Blu-ray will not be the success other formats have been
As the high-def format war finally runs out of steam and Blu-ray has been named the winner, some are wondering what the future of the format will look like.
Will it be the unbridled success DVD was? Will it go the way of the Laser Disc and become more a bridge format than anything else? Or will it be long forgotten as just another attempt to force people into buying the same movies all over again as they wait in anxious anticipation of whatever comes next?
If you ask me, Blu-ray will never be the success DVD was and chances are, it'll be one of the forgotten formats that people scoffed at as they continued to download their favorite films online.
The way I see it, there are three main reasons why Blu-ray will never take off the way DVD did and most people won't even consider making the jump to the new format.
1. The quality jump is not that great
Where Blu-ray excels is in its ability to store data. Instead of the old 4.7GB on DVD, Blu-ray is capable of storing 25GB on a single-layer and 50GB on a dual-layer disc. But when it comes to what the average person will use it for -- film viewing -- the differences between the two formats are not that great.
When you run a regular DVD through a 1080p upconverting DVD player, the picture may not be as crisp as Blu-ray, but even the trained eye will be hard-pressed to find so many differences that a change in format would be necessary.
Do you remember the jump in quality that was experienced between VHS and DVD? If so, you'll probably recall just how beautiful DVDs looked and how disgusting those old VHS tapes were; the jump was huge. It was so huge in fact, that most people realized the value in buying DVDs and players, which effectively ended the VHS' reign as the top media in the land.
But the same can't be said for Blu-ray. Is it high-def? Sure. Does it look nice? Yep. But is the jump so big that you would consider throwing your DVD player out the window and move on to the next big thing because your old media looks ugly? Not a chance.
2. Old entertainment sales will be slow
If nothing else, the DVD generation has been marked by a huge upswing of sales on television shows and old movies. In fact, it's that segment -- specialty entertainment -- that really helped the format grow at such a rapid rate.
Realizing they could have just about any of their favorite shows, people flocked to the stores looking for each new season. But if they own each and every season of Law and Order, why would they want to buy it again on Blu-ray? Beyond that, how many people would be willing to repurchase their entire library just to get it in HD?
And although some say that's not even an issue and they'll gladly watch DVDs on their Blu-ray player, it goes far beyond individuals. If Blu-ray movies or television shows aren't selling because people already own a DVD copy, a significant portion of that market is eliminated.
Simply put, it's as if Blu-ray has lost the first 100 hundred years of movies and television and they'll never come back. What will that do to sales? I think it could be damning to say the least.
3. The wild card -- movie downloads
So far, movie downloads have yet to take the world by storm. But as they continue to surge in popularity, aren't the days of a set-top box and Blu-ray numbered? After all, if we're finally able to enjoy faster broadband speeds and split-second downloads of films, why would we need another player under the TV? Wouldn't it just be easier to download it directly to a set-top box that can be viewed on the TV?
Of course, this is already being done to some extent with the help of cable companies currently offering HD movie downloads on their boxes. But as the brick-and-mortar movie rental business continues to decline, and people find that they want movies directly in the home, the chances of Blu-ray dominating the industry are slim.
Simply put, Blu-ray looks more like a bridge to something bigger and better to me and nothing like DVD, which will always be known as one of the most groundbreaking formats of the last half-century.
So yes, Blu-ray may have won the battle with HD DVD, but in my mind, it's simply impossible for the company to win the war with consumers.
Don Reisinger is a technology columnist who has written about everything from HDTVs to computers to Flowbee Haircut Systems. Don is a member of the CNET Blog Network, and posts at The Digital Home. He is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.
If you want to own it. You need the physical format. If you want to rent it, downloads make sense if you have the means and method to enjoy them and don't mind dealing with the issues.
You do not need a physical format for ownership as the poster above suggests. If that was true then buying MP3s from amazon is not ownership.
As for the other poster regarding slow bandwidth. There is no reason for a full blown download service to take that long to download a movie. With current bandwidth for the main stream broadband user you can download an HD movie within 3 hours. Comcast of course will try to limit your speed because they don't want this form of entertainment delivery to succeed unless its from them. If it works then we don't need comcast for tv anymore because we can get everything from places like joost or overseas network. And if we really need more bandwidth, internet 2 been's around for quite some time.
Upconversion is "good enough"? You must have never seen a real high definition title before. There is a OBVIOUS difference when you see upconversion and High Definition, although I guess when you watch them on a tube TV you won't notice a difference.
Downloads? Maybe in 10 years when Internet speeds are fast enough where a multi-gig movie doesn't take several days. And people have rebought their favorite titles in different formats, sometimes several times over so who's to say no one is going to rebuy on BD? Granted, TV shows might take a while before they become a good buy, but movies alone are enough to move on to BD.
In the end you sound like a HD DVD fanboy gorging yourself on sour grapes. In fact, you hit every fanboy talking point except how BD is "soo expensive", so I assume you'll write about that next.
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Old entertainment sales won't be slow for the younger generation who doesn't have a collection of DVDs. I was simply too poor to collect any films so at this point my entire movie collection is Blu-ray except for a few DVDs.
Digital delivery is not a threat to Blu-ray anymore than is wasn't a threat to DVD 15 years ago. Video on demand has been around for along time and DVD sales were still strong. What you DON'T get with a download is a huge hindrance. You get a lower quality, even lower than DVD (even high-def movies downloaded don't look better than DVD), lower audio quality (less than DVD), no extras, bonus features, commentary tracks, games. And most of all, you don't have a library or a collection of movies to be proud of.
I will not pay that ridiculous price.
Movies are something you sit down with, something you spend time with. It's very different than music.
I don't know what type of system you're using but that's not the case with mine. Hi-Def movies look awesome on my system. Much higher than regular DVD.
As far as the extras, I've never watched them nor will I ever. Its just not important to me. I'd rather have affordable 1080p output.
1080p, BR or HD-DVD has awesome output. No doubt. Is it a leap from VHS to DVD, no it's not.
I didn't buy either format as I was waiting out the war. Now that it's over, I'll just buy an HD-DVD player and use it for upconverting. I'll be happy with 1080i.
I can live with it. I refuse to rebuy my entire collection in BR format. Sony won the battle (congrats to them) but they will lose this war with the consumer.
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Who cares about buying movies all over again I bought some movies on vhs only to turn around and buy it again on dvd. So I don't think owning a movie on different formats is going to matter especially if it's a movie that you like.
- by j_stavro April 17, 2008 4:37 PM PDT
- I'm with glocksout.
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(21 Comments)As for ksal005 and the author of this article, where do you guys get off? blu-ray is UNBELIEVABLY better and clearer than DVD and prices have dropped significantly, not to mention they will do so again in Q4.
Even at today's prices, blu-ray is worth it.
Either way, I'm not surprised this website does not predict success for Blu-Ray. All they ever do is scare people from spending their money. Simply put, go to any home theater store and ask them to show u the same movie on dvd and then on blu-ray. There's no contest!!!
Everyone who has watched blu-ray at my house is convinced it is better. These websites like cnet and consumer reports are soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo dumb. For example, ANY MORON could have predicted blu-ray winning but they never actually said anything like that because HDDVD was CHEAPER! you guys want to save money? stop listening to these morons and ask for your membership fees back