A roadmap for ending the high-def format quagmire
How many times over the past few months have you heard that "the worst is over" and the chances of the high-def format war finally coming to a close were increasing by the day? If you haven't heard it at least once, you're probably not reading the right stories.
But with all that going on, the war is officially a quagmire for both sides and the chances of getting out of this quickly are diminishing at an astounding rate. Consider this: as it stands, the Blu-ray camp commands roughly 49 percent DVD market share, while HD DVD is trailing slightly behind. To make matters worse, some reports suggest HD DVD may be gaining strength, although most buyers are sitting out.
So what's really going on with this war? Is there an end in sight? Even better, is there a solution in sight that can finally put this to rest? If you ask me, I think this could be over in a month if the Blu-ray camp follows three steps.
Step 1: Warner
Warner Bros. is, without a doubt, the most important element of ending this quagmire. As I said above, Sony currently commands 49 percent of the DVD market before Warner jumps on board. But with a little coaxing (and financial massaging), Sony could probably get Warner to take its side. If it can succeed in this, most estimates put Blu-ray's share of the DVD market at about 70 percent, while the HD DVD camp is left to flounder.
Now, the biggest issue with this is getting Warner on board. More often than not, Warner's representatives have come out and said that it plans on being neutral until it sees a clear-cut winner emerge. To make matters worse, the company is actually performing relatively well by supporting all three formats (DVD, HD DVD, and Blu-ray), so there is no immediate need to join one side or the other.
As if that wasn't enough, the HD DVD side of the war still harbors support from Paramount Pictures, DreamWorks, and Universal Studios, to name a few, and the chances of any of these companies leaving this format could be difficult without Warner's Blu-ray backing.
Interestingly enough, if Warner would decide on HD DVD because of its cheaper cost of production, the war would officially hit a standstill and the chances of this ending soon are all but over.
Simply put, Sony must do whatever it can to bring Warner aboard. Not only would it give its format a commanding lead in the market, it would almost surely attract other studios to join its side and put an end to this once and for all.
Step 2: Slash prices on all players
Although prices of Blu-ray and HD DVD players are coming down, none have hit the sub-$100 price point long enough to justify a purchase. Worse, most consumers are downright confused and others couldn't care less about the future of HD DVD and Blu-ray.
But with Warner now on board, Sony would need to deal the death blow as soon as possible. Surely it could drop prices on its media, but the most effective solution would be to drop the prices of its players.
Much like its gaming division, Sony should sell its own players at a loss for a while to increase adoption rates. Sound a bit too extreme for an industry that doesn't employ this tactic? Think of the alternative: with so much money invested in this format, Sony currently runs the chance of losing everything if Blu-ray becomes a debacle. At this point, nothing should be left to chance.
As far as I'm concerned, each and every Blu-ray player should hit the magic sub-$100 price point as soon as the deal is inked with Warner. In effect, this will help create two scenarios--people would take notice that more movies are available on Blu-ray and the players are cheaper than (or the same price as) HD DVD hardware. If that's true, what's the impetus for people to buy Toshiba's device?
Step 3: Get in contact with HD DVD's supporters and inform them of the bad news
Once steps one and two are complete, Sony must do everything it can to get in touch with HD DVD's supporters and fill them in on the writing on the wall. After all, once Warner jumps on board and sales start increasing for Blu-ray, what are the chances that these studios want anything to do with HD DVD anyway?
Even better, the deals Sony could make with the other studios would almost surely turn out to be far more lucrative than the Warner deal and it finally completes the ultimate goal--victory.
Believe it or not, this war could be ended sooner than you think. It just all depends on Sony's ability to make sound business decisions. If you ask me, we're probably in for a long one.
Don Reisinger is a technology columnist who has written about everything from HDTVs to computers to Flowbee Haircut Systems. Don is a member of the CNET Blog Network, and posts at The Digital Home. He is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.
So your entire article is incorrect.
At CES, there are only 2 things that Warner will do.
1/ Nothing
2/ Go Blu
I think 2/ as producing for both formats is costly, especially in light of the recent media mixups. Warner know that if they go Blu, it's over for HD DVD, and the others will follow.
As for the original article, there is one point the author missed.
It's easy for Toshiba to price dump players to $99, as they are the only ones making HD DVD. However it's very diffucult for Sony to do this, as they can't afford to upset the Blu-ray applecart, and effectively force all other Blu-ray manufacturers like Samsung, Panasonic and the like to follow suit. That will cause rifts in the Blu camp.
http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/04/warner-goes-blu-ray-exclusive/
Why oh why would you be rooting for Sony? Their history is to splinter the marketplace with a proprietary format for their own benefit. Beta, Trinitron, Memory Stick, and now BluRay.
Get a clue. If BluRay was such a winner, why would they have to pay companies to adopt their format or slash prices of BluRay players at a loss? Your own article points out that HD-DVD disks are CHEAPER to produce and the BluRay player is more expensive, so why in hell would you discourage an open market competition?
Do you seriously think Sony's monopolistic play will be better for the consumer? This war between the formats is helping to drive prices down for players and disks. What happens if Sony wins; do you think Sony will keep lowering the price of the BluRay, after taking huge losses over the technology and over their PS3? I think they'll artificially keep the prices up so that they can recover their investment and raise their stock price.
Wake up bro.
What an idiot. It's a CRT technology. Please enlighten us all as to why Trinitron was incompatible with shadow mask tubes, and how to damaged consumers.
This is typical of the Sony hating idiots. They have been simply brainwashed by Xbox Live, into hating sony..
One explanation of this is that I've been reading the "wrong" articles, but another (more likely) explanation is that this blog post's author is behind the times, and perhaps he's been reading the wrong articles.
As for the Blu-ray players, this was Sony's fault. For some reason it dictated to the entire Blu-ray player industry that no one could price a stand-alone player below the current price for the entry PS3 model. That changed just last month, allowing both Sony and Samsung to put out sub-$400 deals on their players. This was clearly a reaction to Toshiba's fire sale on its HD DVD players.
Blu-ray has executed horribly (disc problems, profiles, etc.), and benefited mainly from videophile perceptions that BD is a superior format (1080p players, 50GB media, lossless audio, etc.), while HD DVD focused on trying to create an two-tier market, one for videophiles (1080p players) and one for the mass market (cheaper 1080i players).
The first thing Sony needs to do if it wants to "win" the war is get Blu-ray out of its "work in progress", Profile 1.0 phase. Yes, a Toshiba HD A2 bought from Wal Mart for $99 back in November may only output in 1080i, but will play picture in picture, and hook up to the Internet for for advanced features.
My roommate has purchased more than 200 dvd's in the last year, the entire time he has owned an HDTV and PS3. He owns 2 BD's, one came with the PS3, and one was a gift.
My roommate has purchased more than 200 dvd's in the last year, the entire time he has owned an HDTV and PS3. He owns 2 BD's, one came with the PS3, and one was a gift.
Technically speaking, that makes it a reasonably cheap stock, and it has an extremely low beta, so you'll know that if Sony does win out and perform well, the stock will rise based upon its performance and not reacting to the general stock market. Conversely, if the stock tanks, it's because it lost the HD war and the PS3 is a complete failure in profitability, and not a sinking stock market.
Better yet, they've dumped rear-projection. That should improve their bottom line by next Christmas.
Or don't you believe?
However, as I said the war is over. Digital Download is the upcoming media, which does not care about your hardware platform. The best thing studios can do is start releasing in all formats as to increase sales, and not make enemies of supporters of competing formats.
(numbers not exact)
That's no less biased than DR's proposed solution.
I think the industry is hurting itself, with this so called war because a lot of people just got fed up and quit buying DVDs in any format. Yep! Like me, whose still got a pretty nice Lazer Disc collection > . < Can you say *burned*
I don't know which new format is best and I'm not going to waste any of my time researching, to figure it out. I've learned that it doesn't matter what I think anyhow.
The "industry" does not consider it's customers when it moves on to the latest and greatest *new stuffs* If they did care, then they'd offer discounts for the new formats when a customer brought in the older version of the same movie, or whatever; kind of like an upgrade :p
It is identical to 'our' regular HD DVD excepting a badge on the case and a firmware.
That's where the regularly priced (not season special) sub-$100 DVD players that also happen to play HD DVD very nicely are going to come from.
We already know sub $100 HD DVD players sell as fast as they can be stocked.
The same Chinese companies that produce the (still) very nicely selling upscaling DVD players will soon be switching to very nicely selling upscaling DVD players that also just happen to play HD DVD very well too (all use the 3rd gen Toshiba HD A3 as their reference design).
People can be as snobbish about Chinese products all they like but they are the key to the mass-market.
Only HD DVD has licenced their product to China
(even though they all currenty use Chinese assembly and components)
The move on disc media will soon follow too.
There will not be separate DVD and HD DVD versions of discs, the 'Twin' discs will have both regular DVD & HD DVD movies on the one disc on the same side and enormous production will see prices around the level they are for DVD now.
HD DVD will cross into the mainstream a/v mass-market in a way that Blu-ray (which is still utterly dependent on the expensive PS3 game console) can never even hope to do.
The studios will follow the money.
The public will go for high def when it is a nice easy & seamless change barely noticeable to them (particularly in terms of cost).
The fact that regular upscaling DVD hardware hugely outsells both high def formats proves this.
Only HD DVD offers the possibility of this within any realistic timescale.
Meanwhile the fanboys can rant at each other about their favourite game console......as if anyone outside of the narrow world of gaming could care less.
Any smart consumer will wait another year and wont buy either Blu-Ray or HD DVD, they will be purchasing their movies via download in a guaranteed HD format that they can store easily on whatever device they choose.
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by manalagi001
January 2, 2008 2:21 PM PST
- There are only a few hundred titles in high def. There are over 90,000 on DVD. This has just begun, and killing off one format won't be a big deal. Why, a studio that decided to abandon HD-DVD in favor of Blu-ray could offer those few customers who bought HD-DVD discs a replacement in the mail when the Blu-ray burns come out.
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