Analyst believes PS3 will win war and I laugh

Can you win? Not a chance.

(Credit: The Digital Home)

According to an analyst over at Screen Digest discussing video game trends with Economist, not only will the Playstation 3 beat out the Xbox 360 in this generation's console war, he fully expects Sony's console to surpass the Wii by 2011.

The reason: as more games become available for the Playstation 3, more people will find a reason to buy the console, which will propel Sony to the top spot.

Although I can see where the analyst is coming from, I think he's dead wrong. Will the Playstation 3 overtake the Wii? Absolutely. But will it beat out the Xbox 360 when it's all said and done? Not a chance.

Why Sony will beat Nintendo

As I've mentioned before, Sony and its newly refreshed Playstation 3 will kick the Wii to the curb.

Sure, with its current success, it's easy to think that the Wii will always stay atop the list of the most popular video game consoles on the market. But at what point will everyone realize that the Wii is a fun device to play when a group of people are around, but quite boring when it's just you?

I think it has already happened with current Wii owners. A quick glance at October 2007 video game sales figures show that the Wii only holds two out of the top ten places with Guitar Hero III and Wii Play.

And if that means nothing else, it tells you one important fact about Wii owners -- they really only play a handful of games and don't bother to buy most of the games that are currently available for the console.

As I've said before, the Wii is a novelty device that doesn't have the long-term appeal that the Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 do. Is it a fun console to use? Sure. Are there some good games? You bet. But is there enough of a software offering and downright appeal to entice gamers to buy a Wii over a Playstation 3? Right now, it does. But within the next year, look for Wii sales to slump as the PS3 continues to grow.

Suffice it to say, the Wii is a fine device, but it's not going to continue selling this well and if Japanese console figures are any indication of the rest of the world, Nintendo won't be selling more Wii units than Sony going forward.

Look for the Wii to end this console war in third place.

The Xbox 360 will take the day

Why has everyone just about written off the Xbox 360? Let's not forget that it was the first entrant into this generation and to this day, it's still selling quite well. And although it no longer holds the top spot for most consoles sold (it has the Wii to thank for that), I truly believe it will win this war.

Remember those October 2007 sales figures I mentioned? Well if you look at that list again, you'll find that the Xbox 360 accounted for three of those spots and was tied with the Playstation 2 for most games on the chart. By the way, the Playstation 3 didn't even make the cut.

Perhaps most astounding from the report by the analyst is his assertion that the Playstaion 3 will surpass the Xbox 360 in 2008 and never look back. Huh?

Doesn't this analyst know that in the US alone, the Xbox 360 has sold more units than both the Wii and Playstation 3? And doesn't he know that in worldwide sales, the Playstation is still millions of units behind the Xbox 360?

Now, just because the console is behind now, it doesn't mean it can't surpass the Xbox 360 and contrary to what I may believe may happen in the end, I think Sony has a shot at surpassing the Xbox 360 for at least a year during this console cycle. But in the end, the Playstation 3 will fall to the Xbox 360's side because of software.

At this point, there is no debating the fact that Microsoft has been successful because of its relationship with developers and the general consensus from developers is that development for the Xbox 360 is much easier and far more efficient from a money-making standpoint.

More than anything else, this is where Microsoft will be able to take the day. If developers prefer to create games on the Xbox 360 and they find that development on that console is most advantageous, what's the impetus for those same developers to create compelling titles on the Xbox 360? And while this industry is full of game porting, if you currently own an Xbox 360 and more and more games are ported to other consoles, why would you want to buy new hardware to play the same game you can already have on your current machine?

I commend Sony on reducing development costs in an attempt to coax developers to its side and I think its decision to drop the price of the PS3 was an intelligent one. But in the end, when console sales start to dwindle and people are only buying hardware because of the games that are available and not those that will be available, Sony's console will start to falter. At the same time, Microsoft's Xbox 360 will continue to sell well and eventually take the day. Just look at either console's upcoming release calendar and you'll know what I mean.

And in the end, the tried and true trend in gaming will still be true: innovation and advanced technology are great, but it's the games that matter. And when it comes to the variety and appeal of games, Microsoft commands the market.

[City_banker]

Once again a fully validated and well thought out article........... Oh I forgot you don't get paid for your opinion like the analyst you're laughing at.

[crydee9]

The problem is this guy has no idea whats going on outside the US while the analyst obviously does.

[Deliverance4u]

I guess it comes down to facts - graphics get better, and how do they get better. Larger storage, faster processors and so on.

From tape to CD to DVD, the size of a game has expanded to accommodate to meet the needs of the gamer. So that answers your question - sure the XBox 360 has a pretty impressive array of games, and yes it has been said that some developers prefer the XBox to develop on, but the fact is that will only be the case for so long.

What happens when developers see the potential for greater storage and which console has adopted this technology at a reasonable cost - not Microsoft for sure.

[beneathmyskin89]

if u new anything about what ur talking about then yes u do pose a half good point but dvd9 isnt needed this gen. i reckon for conventional non jrpg games it is fine as it is. i mean mass effect and assassins creed fit on one disk, need i say more?

[albrnick]

I think you are absolutely correct that it is the games that will win out, and having variety and appeal is going to be key to that. However, using that logic, I do think the PS3 will have the advantage there. They games that really drive 360 sales: Bioshock, Mass Effect, Halo, Madden, etc.. Are games for the hardcore audience. This is the audience that the 360 does *really* well, better than any other console.

The issue is reaching out beyond that audience. Now, the 360 has tried certainly, with Viva Pinata, but that didn't sell well. The PS3 already has a broader selection with Ratchet and Clank and Uncharted: Drake's Fortune. Add in a PS3 port of Buzz, Sing Star, LittleBIGPlanet in the upcoming months, and I think the PS3 runs away with the game selection.

I think that it is the broader appeal that will propel the PS3 over the 360 in the long run.

Peace,

[vciad]

albrnick makes a good point. The 360 IS doing well and selling lots of software, but its really only doing well in the hardcore market which is demonstrably much smaller than that which the Wii and PS3 are targeting. If the 360 can outsell the original xbox by 40 percent, it will be doing very well. The massive sales of Halo 3 combined with the smallish increase in 360 sales that month shows that the same people who bought the original xbox are buying the 360. They don't appear to be broadening their reach very much. Clearly the Wii is doing just the opposite, hitting markets that it never has. PS3 is struggling to hold onto its market from the PS2. Its likely the Wii is also expanding into what was once PS2 territory/customer base. That being said, its really hard to say what the Wii will do since a large portion of its customer base has not historically been in the perview of these predictions. Its an unknown variable. The author may be correct in assuming demand will taper off, but that idea, while reasonable isn't really based on anything.

[tinler]

Unfortunately, Ratchet & Clank and Uncharted have not sold particularly well.

[aztec92154]

XBOX needs focused marketing and games that cater to a Japanese audience

- Your main point: Its the variety and appeal of games that matter.

I think its this formula that is is making XBOX successful--in America-- and to a large extent many international markets. Its not American market that XBOX is failing to attract, its the Japanese market. What works in other countries doesn't always work here and vice versa. How well did Dreamcast do in the United States, how well did it do worldwide? Where is it now? It was unsuccessful in marketing itself to key markets, and what was the result? Death.

XBOX will fall to third place if it continues to ignore key international markets. This is what the analysts see, and I agree with this view. Can they turn this around? Yes. Will they? Who knows. The question is: How is XBOX catering to the Japanese audience? (Which has traditionally been known as a key market to succeed in)

The gaming market has already shifted, the fact of the matter is, its anybody game right now. Those who continue to focus on better graphics and game sequels will find themselves struggling to differentiate themselves from that pack. This will ruin brand loyalty and ultimately lower profits (why would developers pay Console Company X more to put their game on a specific console if I they do it cheaper on another platform?). Those who focus on new markets, new genres, new nitch segments will win this generation.

What will those new markets be? Read the comment I wrote on Dons last blog here:
http://blogs.cnet.com/8301-13506_1-9831401-17.html?tag=head

Thanks for the great article.

[IGC]

I think you are wrong about developers choosing xbox because it is easier and that's what they want to do.
There are only two things that developers in the end care about, and none of those is ease of development.
First of all is MONEY. Most developers are choosing xbox over ps3 at the moment, because it is obviously more profitable to develop for the bigger market. If you can sell your product to twice as many consumers, why wouldn't you do?
But that might change if PS3 starts to recover and make up some ground on the xbox.
Secondly is PRIDE. You want to create the best possible game you can, and if one system offers more possibilities than the other, developers will want to develop for that system and create the best game possible. I actually don't know which system has the most untapped potential of the two, but the fact that Uncharted looks as good or better than any game on xbox and it has been released only after 1 year of life of the ps3 might mean that the system has more potential and more room to grow.

The other point that you misinterpret on your article is the fact that Wii only had two titles in the top 10 for October, because we are on December right now and you might as well rewrite your article when Mario Galaxy and Mario and Sonic top the charts for next-gen consoles. The Wii might not have the depth and potential of the other two, but it is way more accessible to all users than the other two, by price and gameplay.

I believe that the Wii is going to win this generation, and we will see who's second behind it.

[Dorceon]

@albrnick: The people who buy Buzz and Singstar aren't going to pay $500 for a console, and the Wii has the broader appeal in that market already. By the time Sony can afford to lower the PS3's price enough to appeal to that segment, Wii will have it sewn up, and if they lower the price before that they'll lose so much money selling the console that they'll never make it up on games.

[crydee9]

The PS3 is $399.

[crydee9]

BTW the PS2 is the console that has appealed to that market and still sells millions. In 5 years or so that cheap market will end up getting PS3s when that is really cheap.

[albrnick]

Hello Doreon!

Yeah, a lower price point is going to be key for the PS3's success. Minor correction, but you can get a PS3 for $400 now. If Sony can lower the price even more, to like $300, I think you have a great chance of reaching that broader market.

The Wii market seems to be even more causal than the PS3 IMHO. The PS3 has the advantage of appealing to both the hardcore gamer and casual gamer, IMHO. And by a year from now, if the price can drop another $100, I think the casual gamer can afford the PS3.

Another key advantage that Sony has is the 110 Million existing PS2 owners. I don't know that the PS3 will outsell the Wii in terms of units sold, due to the price and very broad appeal of the Wii. But I do believe it will outsell the 360 ultimately, because the 360 has a much narrower focus.

And I think the BluRay drive is an advantage for the PS3. I have a hardcore 360 friend who was lamenting that his buddies were all getting a PS3 due to getting a BluRay drive for their HD TVs. Not that it is a good sample by far, but I think shows there is some legitimacy to the BluRay being a plus for the PS3.

Best Wishes,

[crydee9]

I think you need a bit of a reality check. You are obviously an American 360 owner because they are the only people on planet earth who dont recognise that the 360 is going to come last in this gen. The 360 is now bombing outside of the states. Only 10% of its current hardware and software sales are coming from outside the US. That's what killed the original Xbox. Worldwide the PS3 has sold as many units in its first year as the 360 did yet it did so only having been released in the EU for 7 months of that year. That means it has so far actually performed better than the 360 and thats with none of its big titles having been released.

The 360 has shot its load now. Halo, Bioshock and Gears Of War have come and gone yet there are still well over 100m PS2 owners who ha vent been interested enough in it to buy one. What else is there that will now attract all of those last gen owners? What can the 360 pull out of the bag now to get over 100m PS2 owners to kiss goodbye to any chance of playing the next Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy, Tekken, Gran Turismo, Jak & Daxter, Ratchet & Clank, Getaway, Wipeout, SingStar or their other Playstation exclusive game? Nothing. In 2008 you will be seeing all of the games below exclusively on the PS3:

Metal Gear Solid 4
Gran Turismo 5
Final Fantasy 13
Tekken 6
LittleBigPlanet
Killzone 2
L.A. Noire
The Agency
Coded Arms: Assault
Eight Days
FIA World Touring Car Championship
The Getaway 3
Ni-Oh
Red Dead Revolver 2
Heavy Rain
Infamous
White Knight Chronicles
Haze

Compared to just these exclusives on the 360:

Banjo-Kazooie 3
Dance Dance Revolution Universe 2
Dogtag
Fable 2
Magna Carta 2
Mobile Ops: The One Year War
Ninja Gaiden 2
Too Human

The PS3 also has a lot more exclusives in total. There are around 100 released or in development compared to just over 60 released or in development on the 360.

The PS3 has already won, its just a matter of time now. If you think the PS3 wont outsell the 360 you are out of your mind lol.

[adeadfrench1023]

The reason: ?as more games become available for the Playstation 3, more people will find a reason to buy the console,". Yeah but more games doesn?t mean more quality games. ?GameRankings.com, which consolidates game reviews into a single rating, lists just seven Wii games with a score above 80%?. And even the lowly PlayStation 3 has 19 games rated above 80%, only four of which are published by Sony. On the other hand, the Xbox 360 has a whopping 56 titles rated 80% or better? (www.thestreet.com).

crydee9 the only games you listed that have hope of making ANYONE'S wish list are first party games, and if that wasn't the case Sony's PS3 would be in even more trouble than it already is for lack of 3rd party development. Almost if not all the 1st party games you listed have been delayed, and how dare you list The Getaway 3 as title on PS3 assuming you think it's worth buying. IGN gave the first game a 6.5 whoo! Lets add more crappy games to your list to make the PS3 look superior, ******. The 360 has the superior 3rd party support.

And by the by Xbox 360 is NOT bombing outside the US, the week of our thanksgiving it sold 311,000 units in the UK and over 700,000 units in the US the month of November, how did the PS3 do?

Now on to your list
Metal Gear Solid 4: Is exclusive to PS3 for now but in the past the metal gear series has been a multiplatformer, and it keeps getting DELAYED on PS3
Gran Turismo: I agree
Final FantasyXIII: Final Fantasy has been a multiplatformer
TekkenIV: Tekken has been a multiplatformer
Little Big Planet: I agree
Killzone 2: HA, what makes you think Killzone 2 will be any better than it's "Halo Killing" sibling Killzone1 that blew hard?
Coded Arms: Assault: Delayed, maybe Indefinitely
Haze:
As far as the other titles for PS3 (not all exclusive) you blindly listed, your judgment on these barley in development games to be any good has to be the only thing you can see, the pictures. And no matter how pretty a game is it can still blow, we had Solider of Fortune to determine that. You have been waiting and waiting for your system seller titles while I have mine. Your just hoping the Sony will finally pump it's first system seller game. You?re a blatant fan-boy who won't take time to open your eyes to what anyone else has to offer. Most of your statistics are Pointless. And your incredibly ignorant thinking the PS3 has already won. I though you needed a bit of a reality check ******.

[haloguye3]

erm yea the wii is just a fad hmn are there seriuosly people around that still belive this. And can I just remind you that the DS had a VERY shallow line up of in in its first two years, it was ment to get thrashed by the PSP with its "superior games" but look how that turned out.

The reason why the wii has sold more than the 360 and ps3 is not because its a fad but because it appeals the the ENOURMOUS casual gamers market and the much smaller hard core gamers market the ps3 and 360 aim for one of those and thats the small hard core gamers market. You have to be pretty ignorant to ignore why the wii is selling so much as you just dismiss it as a fad, when Nintendo's marketing scheme has already been proven with the MUCH superior psp and its much superior games but which one has sold the most PSP or DS.

[SS4GogetaTX]

The PS3 will beat out the 360. Every PS3 comes equipped with a Blu-ray disk player. Once game developers start to take advantage of that space the DVD9 on the 360 will become obsolete. For the record I have a 360 Elite and the 60Gb PS3.

[Thayvictusisback]

Okay so this guy basically admits that sony is the superior device but all that doesn't matter because its all about the software:

"And in the end, the tried and true trend in gaming will still be true: innovation and advanced technology are great, but it's the games that matter. And when it comes to the variety and appeal of games, Microsoft commands the market."

I can only hope that this paragraph alone will show anyone with common sense that this guy is borderline retarded and should not be taken seriously when he writes something.

Sorry Sony, your innovation and advanced technology just aren't enough. lol give me a break. As games get larger and more complex Sony's harddrive and Next gen disc format will easily win the day. Uncharted has NO LOAD time. Awsome.

I'm not even going to go into detail about all this because its a no brainer. But honestly what console is going to be a console with MGS4, Final Fantasy XIII, GT5, Killzone 2, and God of War 3? lol like its a joke. The only thing that Microsoft has coming thats exciting is Gears of War 2. If it weren't for Microsoft having so much damn money the company would have tanked years ago and Gears would be on PS3.

Remember the name Don Reisinger - Has no clue and senseless opinions.

[beneathmyskin89]

wat kind of a dumb ass comment is that lol i think all the consoles are great right back to nes, but microsoft only successes becus of wod loads of money, well no **** sherlock. u dont hear of a company that got successful without money lmao.

[rpoteat]

very good point, but you forgot a few other points that may keep xbox in the lead, namely the online experience.

Currently, xbox live offers it's users instant chat and messages, much to ps3 users frequent (and vocal), complaints. While sony has stated that they are acting on gamer requests, how long are gamers going to continue to wait for a service that is considerd basic in the post world of warcraft/xbox live market?

also another point, from both a user/gamer and developer point of view. Xbox and nintendo both offer pre-paid cards for puchase of items through their network. Sony does not, and requires credit cards only. If you check the sony forums, you will find that a small percentage of the online users are having a problem using pre-paid cards. This means for a gamer, unless you have a bank-issued credit card, or "official" card from a credit card company, you may have problems with your ability to purchase through the ps store. If your a developer, and you plan on releasing extra content for a game, you may want to consider that currently, sony is in 3rd place with the ps3, with 3 million subscribers. out of that three million, let's say there will be 5% of them that will not be able to buy your product unless you spend the extra effort to provide it via another medium.

in sony's favor however is the fact that when you compare the potential of the ps3, it seems pre-destined to outlast the 360, even with limited developer support, given the fact that microsft seems to have a trend of canceling new game production once they are ready to unveil the new model. (imagine where microsft would be if they were still releasing new games & content for the original xbox). Sony does not have that problem, and only just recently (relatively speaking), cancled production of new ps1 titles, if they continue to create new content for the ps3 as long as they have for the ps1 & ps2, they'll probably end up #1 again...........and it's better late than never..

[brandonh33]

How long will ps3 owners have to wait for these basic services you mentioned at the beginning of your reply? There is an update comming just before christmas including in game xmb which is highly more advance than what the 360 has, so all of the people getting ps3s for christmas will have this feature. And where did you get that 3 million subscribers data from? Talking about no pre-paid cards as an advantage to the 360? Give me a break, you are digging pretty dang deep for something to throw against the ps3. If you had enough money to get a console you most likely have a credit/debit card. And if you dont, Your mommy who bought you a ps3 does. So you go digging through the playstation forums to get some dirt on the ps3? Get a freaking life.

[gerrrg]

While the wireless motion device for the WII may be a novelty for now, all other machines will go the way the WII, and adopt some sort of similar interface.

Even IF the PS3 can catch up with the console war, it still requires a tremendous price cut and the WII still has a enormous advantage to that end, given the console's profitability from day one.

What happens if the Blu-Ray happens to peter out as a minor player in the format wars? I'm not saying that it will, but price matters, and Blu-Ray outside of the PS3 still costs more than my left arm and right leg. HD-DVD costs me only my left arm.

360 seems best positioned to win because it has a billion pound gargantuan behind it: Microsoft. Of all the three companies, Microsoft is best positioned to take a loss on the gaming division with a double-digit profit on software side. Not only can Microsoft finance and provide direct technical support for game dev, they also already have a leg up on the competition.

The games do matter...to the extent that they can come out fast enough with fresh ideas. The problem for PS3 still remains the complexity of programming for the Core. It's a 2-for-1 cost when it comes to dev of WII compared to PS3. Freshness counts.

The core of Nintendo games propels the WII with the entire series of Mario Kart, Donkey Kong, Super Smash, etc. That's built-in user-base. These titles won't be coming soon to a PS3 near you. The 2008 Mario Kart means that units will NOT be easily available through next year, in spite of production increases, and that most of those units are headed for the US.

[albrnick]

I think you are somewhat right as far as MS is the most able to take a loss/able to afford to not make money. But after losing 4 Billion on the XB1, head MS folks have publicly stated that the 360 needs to turn a profit. With the 1 Billion write off for the quality issues, I want to say that lifetime for the whole XBox project they are like 6 Billion in the red, though, maybe it is only 5 Billion. I'd suspect if they can't make a profit this generation, they won't be sinking any more money into the XBox line.

Peace

[Zucas]

Haha oh this is funny haha. 360 is destined to hit last place because it has no appeal outside of America. You know I really don't care what people think of the Wii, but it has worldly appeal and thus can't get last. 360 nuts are just going to have to accept that becuase 360 can't do well outside of America and can't grab a first place spot in America, they are desitned to get last place.

Predicting this kinda thing is about knowing the market, economics, and of course dominance of brandname, something obviously Mr. Reisinger knows nothing about. The 3 things that allow a console war is price, brandname, and quantity of games. That's how it's always been and I don'tsee the market transitioning. I've stated before if good games alone could win a generation then N64 would have crushed the PS1. There are just so many outside factors, that either you don't know to include or simply don't understand well enough to comprehend.

Either way you'll end up wrong, at least with Wii taking last, as you have nothing but ******** to back it up haha. Why do they allow such ignoramuses to make posts like this. Ignorance is not a blissh when facts are present.

[goglu666]

"Wii is a fun device to play when a group of people are around, but quite boring when it's just you?"

Thank you for deciding what i do find fun and what I don't.

Damn Geometry wars is awesome, Medal of Honor Heroes 2, Mario Galaxy... I actually never really played my Wii other ways than alone....

"Quick glance at October 2007 video game sales figures show that the Wii only holds two out of the top ten places."

Yep, and the others are mostly Nintendo Ds games, I think you get something like 2 Xbox360 and 1 PS3 game. Good job playing with the numbers.

"If Japanese console figures are any indication of the rest of the world, Nintendo won't be selling more Wii units than Sony going forward."


Yep, but they did actually regain the pole position as it was only due to the PS3 price drop and the lack of Wii units that made the PS3sell slighly more in Japan.

Better get informed before posting false claim (wich should have been read that if it does reflect the rest of the world, it will still be outselling the PS3 2 to 1...)

Unfortunately this article has been well designed and well written to induced the writer's opinion as fact to the uninformed. I stoped reading after the Wii part because I don't want to see what BS was written about the Xbox360 and what was ommited for the PS3 (such as the 8 different models with dropped features, there way of rereleasing peripherals (sixaxis because rumble is not what customer wants, then releasing Dualshock 3, how ironic)

I'm not taking part in the war at all, the Xbox360 has really good sales numbers for US and Europe, what's killing them is Japan, but if they don't put that much money in Japan, they can get good chunks of profit elswhere. The PS3 will last longer than the other 2 console. But being last for 5 years, until 2011, will not make it a winner if it gets the lead for the last year as developpers will already be signing exclusive deals for next-gen consoles...

[flypaper2007]

I agree with everything said here, but I'd like to offer a counter arguement for a moment. It's a given that the PS3 and XBox 360 will duke it out for the top spot in the console wars this generation. But let's assume for a moment the Nintendo Wii is not a fad, like your article aludes to. Laughable? Hold on. Let's review some history and facts:

When Nolan Bushnell created Pong in 1972, besides making a new game, he actually created a new market category. Namely that of "interactive entertainment." For the first time, people could interact with images on the television in front of them and get immediate feedback. That capability did not exist before, and so the televideo game industry was born.

A few years later when he developed the Atari 2600, he created another new market category - that of Videogame Console. Up until that point, game systems were sold with all of their functions 'burned in' to the main board. So a system would come with five or six built in games, but that was the extent of its capabilities. But Bushnell and his design team quickly realized that by locating the game programs on external rom chips, instead of playing five or six games, users could interchange the cartridges and play as many as Atari could come up with. Translating popular arcade games to the home experience soon grabbed the collective imagination of the public, and it was a concept that enabled Atari to create a machine that, over its lifetime, would sell over 40 million consoles with a library of over 900 titles. Not to mention a new industry.

From then on, every successive console released was simply a faster, more powerful, better refined version of their competitors' before it with very little innovation. Until Nintendo decided it was time for a complete shakeup of the whole model.

So along comes the Nintendo DS and the Nintendo Wii. And instead of the thumb-numbing button mashing that had become the industry standard way of interacting with games for the past two decades, it was time to use touch and motion sensing in a big way. And low and behold, another market category was born. Truly motion controlled videogames.

And here is the point of it all: overlook the idea that Nintendo's current consoles are only a fad. Instead, let's assume that Nintendo has actually created a new market category. Nintendo even admitted it themselves: they are no longer in competition with Sony or Microsoft. And they are right, because their products are now so fundamentally different that it truly is like comparing apples and oranges. It just doesn't make sense.

So then, to say Nintendo will win or lose the console war becomes a moot point. They are no longer in the console war. Instead, they are now almost alone in the Motion Controlled Videogames category, save for a few minor toy players like Playschool who are just beginning to jump on board and realize the potential for the active toddler market.

Admit that, and the market potential for the Wii is almost limitless. Now instead of opting for a Wii instead of an XBox 360 or Playstation 3, families will have both because they are, in fact, two different things providing two completely different yet equally valuable experiences.

Listen, there are plenty of examples in histroy companies creating a product category where before none existed. And in just about every instance, market experts predicted they were mere fads. Yet histroy teaches us that where a new product emerges, so does competition. And where there's healthy competition, there's a market. And yesterday's fads become tomorrow's industries.

So forget about comparing what Nintendo's doing with the DS and Wii to the Playstation 3 or XBox 360. It's entirely new. And I'm beginning to feel as though we've just witnessed the birth of a new way to game. Just as we did back when the Atari 2600 was young. Let the competition begin. Gaming - or the typical 'gamer' - will never be the same.

[aztec92154]

- What I believe is inline with what you are saying. Consoles need to diversify and concentrate on unique niches. Its no longer acceptable to have 2 or 3 different consoles that have essentially the same function. If you get a game that is released on the XBOX 360 AND the PS3, they are essentially the SAME GAME. This is UNACCEPTABLE!

Please read my comments written on Don's previous blogs which relate to this one.

(XBOX will do well if they expand into new categories, and we will all benefit)
http://blogs.cnet.com/8601-13506_1-9832294.html?communityId=2017

(There is room for Sega Dreamcast 2, as long as they dont follow PS3 and XBOX 360's lead)
http://blogs.cnet.com/8301-13506_1-9831401-17.html?tag=head

Thanks for the excellent comment!!!

[The Noble Robot]

"But at what point will everyone realize that the Wii is a fun device to play when a group of people are around, but quite boring when it's just you?"

*THIS* is what you base you analysis on?? I suspect that with the Wii's system specs, it will have a shorter lifespan than the PS3, but don't count out games like the latest Zelda, Metroid, and Mario games, all of which offer incredible (rated in the 9s) single-player experiences. Those games aren't going to stop.

Plus, you seem to think that games that are fun when "people are around" aren't going to keep selling like hotcakes! Cuz they are! Just because you prefer to "game while lonely" doesn't mean that the rest of the world does. The Wii is going to keep selling specifically *because* it's fun with groups! The fact that a lot of those games are terribly shallow isn't going to hurt sales, as much as you'd hope.

"Doesn't this analyst know that in the US alone, the Xbox 360 has sold more units than both the Wii and Playstation 3? And doesn't he know that in worldwide sales, the Playstation is still millions of units behind the Xbox 360?"

Now I'm laughing. Uh, don't *you* know that the 360 has been on store shelves for twice as long?? And to compare, the Wii has sold more than 5 million systems in its first 12 months, where the 360 sold less than 3 million in its first 12 months. And that's not counting all the people who can't get their hands on a Wii due to the supply shortages.

"Remember those October 2007 sales figures I mentioned? Well if you look at that list again, you'll find that the Xbox 360 accounted for three of those spots and was tied with the Playstation 2 for most games on the chart."

So if you have three games on the chart you are a success, but having only two makes you a failure?? Besides, with 2 DS games on the list, it's not a fair comparison. Who knows what was at # 11 or #12 (It could even validate your point, but we don't know).

You seriously don't know what you're talking about.

[W1ldWolf]

This sounds like an article from someone who has not spent much time on both of these systems. If you have I think you would see the potential for the PS3 is much greater than the 360. I think this gap will grow wider this next year. I love both systems (Ps3 360) and as I type this from my ubuntu partition on my ps3 I wonder how long until my 360 breaks again...?

[etuoyo]

Eh!!!

"Will the Playstation 3 overtake the Wii? Absolutely. But will it beat out the Xbox 360 when it's all said and done? Not a chance."

Have you been living under a rock for the last one year. I had to look at the date of the article when I read that as I could not believe this was something written in the last 6 months. You are suggesting that Wii is going to finish last which suggests you have to be the worst analyst ever. The chances of either PS3 or 360 outselling Wii are remote. The chances that both will outsell Wii non-existent. PS3 and 360 have been dropping price all over the place and yet are unable to come anywhere near the sales of Wii. What happens when there are price drops for Wii? Shocking that an analyst can still come up with this given the way things are going.

[shortyman920]

Let's much forget that most of the ps3' major titles haven't hit yet. In 2008, ps3 will be getting Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy 13 (game will take over japan and consoles will sell like mad), and MGS4(bunch of people have been holding out on a ps3 till this game releases. We might even see other releases like God of war 3 and Jak and daxter to accompany those huge titles. I wouldn't count ps3 off so easily.

[freshh2o45]

You know, Wikipedia is a free resource you can use to check on just about anything, including approximate sales of consoles and games. All you need is a simple High School math foundations class and you can learn how to add up numbers. No assembly required.

PS3 - 5.59 million as of 9/30/07
Wii - 13.17 million as of 9/30/07

Also, last time I checked, the Wii is still sold out, a full year after its launch. From Nintendo World Store, to the middle of nowhere Vermont, the Wii is impossible to find.

Maybe I should link to the dozens of PS3s I see without owners.

If you want to talk about libraries, PS3 Exclusives: 111 games on the Wiki list with a 3-minute count. On Notebook forums, someone has a list of Wii exclusives, with an eyeball check of maybe ~90 games. This includes all projects for 2008+ releases. This is not a huge difference.

One month sales don't prove anything either. I'm no Wii fanboy. I'll be getting a PS3 soon for exclusives such as FFXIII, Folklore, and MGS4. However, to say that the PS3 is OBVIOUSLY going to pass the Wii is ridiculous enough to consider it a fallacy. "Screen Digest" should hire me instead, not some angry PS3 fan who is sick of waiting for Metal Gear Solid 4.

Whatever. Look at the numbers, then make your own decision.