Future Implications: Why the Gphone will fail
No way, Gphone
(Credit: Google)There's nothing quite like rumors. Whether it's the pudgy Nano or the Google Phone, there is always something worth speculating about. But before we start telling the world about the rumored Google Phone (or Gphone as it has come to be known), it's time we consider the environmental factors that will cause this device to be a failure -- if it's real, that is.
If Google decides to break out of its shell and release a new cell phone that some are calling the "iPhone Killer," it will be a huge mistake.
As I've mentioned before, the only way for Google to make any headway in the cell phone business is through the help of the 700MHz spectrum. With this tactic in mind, Google could create its own phone that works like Skype on the spectrum and in the process, kill off the entire cell phone industry. But for Google to throw a device into the cell phone business on domestic and international carriers would not only be a mistake, it could be an indication that Google is getting in over its head.
Now, before Google fanboys jump all over me for saying that this massive company will never get in over its head, think again. The cell phone industry and the hardware business are two places Google has yet to venture. And while I have no doubt that it can create a phone that rivals the iPhone, it needs to understand that the cell phone business is nothing like the online advertising and search industry. Quite frankly, Google has never seen this kind of competition.
Apple succeeded in the cell phone business for one reason: it's Apple. For years, the company has created stylish hardware and has enjoyed a cult following that knows its way around Apple devices. Google doesn't have either luxury. Instead, the popular online company has yet to develop any meaningful hardware products and it certainly has yet to prove itself as a hardware choice. And while I understand that every company must start somewhere, the cell phone industry is the last place any company should begin.
Next time you're at your carrier's store, take a look at the cell phones and each device's price. Chances are, you will find a host of cell phones that are either free or close to it. And of course, the reason for this is quite simple: competition in the cell phone market eclipses competition in any other industry in technology. Simply put, Google may be entering a market that it knows nothing about with a product that may not bring anything substantial to the table.
If Google brings a cell phone to a U.S. carrier, it's in for a rude awakening. Although the company is the leader online, it doesn't mean it will be the cell phone powerhouse. In fact, it doesn't make any sense for Google to get into the cell phone business. Why should it when it's about to win the 700MHz spectrum auction?
Why Google would enter the cell phone business baffles me. As I've already mentioned, the cell phone industry is rife with competition and the market's big shots--Nokia, LG, Motorola and the rest--will surely come out with a phone that can trump the Gphone in a matter of weeks at a price point that is well below the Gphone price.
The iPhone was a device that was (and is) coveted by millions for a few reasons: it was unique, it was from Apple and it was a status symbol. Can the same be said for a Gphone? Without a doubt, the Gphone will feature the same touch screen and functionality of the iPhone with a few more features thrown in. Is this unique? No. Is this from Apple--a proven hardware manufacturer with a stranglehold on the hardware business? No. Will it be a status symbol? I doubt it.
With rumors abound, everyone is getting caught up in the fact that Google may be entering the gadget business. And while it must happen eventually, a cell phone is not the place to start. Like every other cell phone, the Gphone will be derivative, yet useful to many people. But unlike the online business, Google will be met with a significant amount of competition that it wields no advantage over. Cell phones are a different ballgame and if you ask me, Google is ill-equipped to play this game.
Every Thursday, Don picks a current-events topic and discusses how it will impact us in the future. Check out more from Don's Future Implications series.
Don Reisinger is a technology columnist who has written about everything from HDTVs to computers to Flowbee Haircut Systems. Don is a member of the CNET Blog Network, and posts at The Digital Home. He is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.
Here is a great site which aggregates all gPhone news (rumours at this point) into one place:
http://gphone.corank.com
Here is a great site which aggregates all gPhone news (rumours at this point) into one place:
http://gphone.corank.com
First of all, Google HAS made hardware. They make enterprise servers for integration into existing corporate networks (http://www.google.com/enterprise/). Secondly, they have acquired the company that made the Sidekick. They have the knowledge and expertise to make a hand-held device to be integrated into a wireless network.
Secondly, Google HAS seen competition. They have worked their way from absolutely nothing (1996) to a multi-billion, publicly-traded company (today). They weren't the first search engine - they didn't even come up with the pay per click model. They have, however, become the authority in both. They HAVE seen competition, and have excelled.
You ask why Google should get into the cell business when it's about to win the 700MHz spectrum auction. What else would they do with it? Why not use the 700MHz spectrum to their advantage across multiple platforms?
You also mentioned that if Google created a cell phone, Nokia, LG and Motorola would have an answer within 2 weeks. Well, the iPhone has been out for almost 2 months now, and Nokia, LG and Motorola haven't released anything to compete with it yet. Besides, GOOGLE owns their applications (Gmail, Talk, Documents, Spreadsheets, Reader, Picasa...). They can license their applications to whomever they please. If (and this is just speculation here) Google makes a hand-held that has all (or most) of their applications built into it, I don't think other companies can replicate this within weeks of release. I do think that Google would be more than happy to get their applications on as many devices as possible, but integration takes time. Other companies can release hand-helds, but won't replicate the Google Phone.
One last note. You mentioned that the only reason the iPhone was successful is because they already had a following. I am not privileged to know how many people use Google on a daily basis, and I have no idea how many people have a Gmail account, but I'd venture to say that there are many, many more people who use Google on a daily basis than have (or covet) the iPhone.
I personally hope that Google will make the Google Phone, get it into the market, and generate a large market share. I believe that this will make owning a web-enabled mobile device much cheaper and feature-rich. Why would I, as a consumer, discourage progress?
- Are you new to the Internet?
- by longears August 31, 2007 9:17 AM PDT
- I'd like to offer a few counter-arguments to your post.
- Like this Reply to this comment
-
(8 Comments)First of all, Google HAS made hardware. They make enterprise servers for integration into existing corporate networks (http://www.google.com/enterprise/). Secondly, they have acquired the company that made the Sidekick. They have the knowledge and expertise to make a hand-held device to be integrated into a wireless network.
Secondly, Google HAS seen competition. They have worked their way from absolutely nothing (1996) to a multi-billion, publicly-traded company (today). They weren't the first search engine - they didn't even come up with the pay per click model. They have, however, become the authority in both. They HAVE seen competition, and have excelled.
You ask why Google should get into the cell business when it's about to win the 700MHz spectrum auction. What else would they do with it? Why not use the 700MHz spectrum to their advantage across multiple platforms?
You also mentioned that if Google created a cell phone, Nokia, LG and Motorola would have an answer within 2 weeks. Well, the iPhone has been out for almost 2 months now, and Nokia, LG and Motorola haven't released anything to compete with it yet. Besides, GOOGLE owns their applications (Gmail, Talk, Documents, Spreadsheets, Reader, Picasa...). They can license their applications to whomever they please. If (and this is just speculation here) Google makes a hand-held that has all (or most) of their applications built into it, I don't think other companies can replicate this within weeks of release. I do think that Google would be more than happy to get their applications on as many devices as possible, but integration takes time. Other companies can release hand-helds, but won't replicate the Google Phone.
One last note. You mentioned that the only reason the iPhone was successful is because they already had a following. I am not privileged to know how many people use Google on a daily basis, and I have no idea how many people have a Gmail account, but I'd venture to say that there are many, many more people who use Google on a daily basis than have (or covet) the iPhone.
I personally hope that Google will make the Google Phone, get it into the market, and generate a large market share. I believe that this will make owning a web-enabled mobile device much cheaper and feature-rich. Why would I, as a consumer, discourage progress?