Are you ready for the PlayStation 4 and Xbox 720?

Epic Games Vice President Mark Rein said in a recent interview that although the video game industry has historically seen console refreshes every four to six years, there's no need to follow that strategy this time around. Consumers just aren't ready yet, he said.

The PlayStation 3 might be around longer than you think.

(Credit: Sony)

"Over half the users who played Gears of War 2 so far do not have HDTVs," Rein told Eurogamer in an interview. "My point is, of the systems that are out there now, the majority of them aren't plugged into HDTVs. So there's no way we're ready for the PlayStation 4 or the Xbox Whatever."

Rein's comments fall in line with what Sony has been touting as the PlayStation 3's 10-year lifecycle. The hardware maker has said on numerous occasions that the rapid console updates of the past simply don't apply in this generation. That's why Sony, even though it's trailing far behind the competition today, believes it can still win this console war. It believes that its console is the only device on the market that has staying power.

For a while, many video game pundits (myself included) thought that argument was nonsense. Surely there is something bigger and better on the horizon, right?

Rein doesn't think so. He doesn't believe Microsoft will release a high-powered Xbox 720 to replace the Xbox 360. On the contrary, he thinks the future of the Xbox is based solely in Project Natal, motion-detecting technology to control a gaming system with no controller required.

"It's called Natal," Rein said. "That is the next Xbox."

Microsoft is saying the same thing. Just last week, the head of Microsoft Game Studios, Phil Spencer, said that when Project Natal is made available, it will revolutionize the market.

"When Natal comes out, it will feel like a new generation has arrived," Spencer said. "I see it as like the launch of the Xbox 360 back in 2005--there will be a launch portfolio of games to support it."

So perhaps Rein is right. Maybe the PlayStation 4 and the Xbox 720, while still possible, might not make their way to store shelves for quite some time.

It makes sense. The Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 are network- and HD-ready. Thanks to firmware upgrades, the hardware companies can release incremental improvements to keep the consoles alive and well. Since the future is both online and in HD, what makes an Xbox 720 and PlayStation 4 so important?

Moreover, developers face some real challenges when a new console is released. They need to learn how to exploit the hardware, which tends to lengthen development and cost the company more cash. And even though the Xbox 720 or PlayStation 4 might be able to provide Pixar-like graphics, that might be far too expensive for developers, causing most companies to balk at going that far with graphical prowess. While most gamers might want more from their consoles, sometimes, it's just not financially feasible.

Then there are consumers. If they've yet to capitalize on this generation's technology, why should the industry rush to bring out new hardware? Maybe the industry should allow consumers to catch up and then decide how to move forward.

But in the end, it's demand that will dictate the future of this space. And that demand comes from you. So, what do you say? Are you ready for the PlayStation 4 and the Xbox 720? Or would you rather wait until you've fully exploited the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360?

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[Chwith]

Currently my is hooked to a relatively small computer monitor. So although I have HD it's not ideal. I'm not going to fully take advantage of the until I can get it on a big screen HDTV. That said, a system is viable until there isn't any good software for it and there still so much left out there to play. Game makers have barely tapped the potential of these consoles IMO and so there's really not a need for new hardware yet. Heck, I still enjoy games on my PS2!

[Saltiva]

Wii is a piece of junk- the graphics are ancient, the controllers are a gimmick, and there is no future proofing.
PS3 is too similar to the XBOX360- Blu Ray is a gimmick IMO. I stream better quality and streaming is the future anyway!
XBOX360- has RROD issues, noisy, and hot. Project Natal looks promising.
Therefore, IMO all three need to be revamped and tweaked! Fix the problems that limit their capabilities now!
Fix the PS3 streaming and Network interface.
Fix the 360 hardware to be more efficient (if you truly want it to stay current GEN any longer than a year)
and Throw away the WII... or better yet
Invest all of your money in a PC that does everything you need!

[loki2240]

@Saltiva -- Blu-ray is a gimmick, and you stream better quality than Blu-ray? You just showed your hand. You can't stream the minimum video bitrates that Blu-ray movies offer, let alone the lossless audio.

On topic, I'm fine with waiting longer for the next generation of consoles. I think the current generation launched too early, and the jump in processing power and especially RAM weren't great enough. I also think that each manufacturer would be better served to continue to get production costs and retail prices down on current consoles than to offer a much more expensive new console. The 360 and the PS3 showed that $400 plus really limits sales.

[deric_raymond]

@Saltiva:

Yeah, Wii controllers are a gimmick? Whatever makes you sleep at night. Though you might be a die-hard techie fan who goes nuts for the numerology of a system, the Wii system and its innovative UI is killing the rest. If I hear that Nintendo is not a competitor to Microsoft or Playstation, I'll go nuts. They are killing the big guys in every facet.

[lifeishord]

get gowing with the new sistoms.... the old ones r getting boring

[man_is_man]

haha

[fitzydog]

hahaha wow.......

Epic fail? :-/

[AF1973]

Wow..."failure is not an option" certainly does not apply here.

[Hairy_Pooter]

My butt smells

[eelukee]

Great article. Good point about peripheral tech not being able to keep up with the likes of the PS3 core chip's advanced power. But there is always a new jump, this one is set to be 3D, with James Cameron's 3D epic, Avatar out this summer all the directors are raving about how film is about to change.

We all know what it's like to go back to crappy normal-vision after watching HD, or playing and old game after experiencing amazing new graphics. The same will happen with 3D and unless the PS3 can be adapted to run that, new hardware will be a must. Perhaps peripheral devices that step-up the games tech will be the way forward. After the 128-bit Atari failed in the days of 16-bit mega drive, the industry is scared to jump to far forward. That sucks.

[sdf0013]

That would be an interesting twist, but I could really see that happening. But, I could also see that taking until the following next, PS5-gen. Mostly because you're just not going to do real 3D until more of the mass market has a tv that can do it. And I'm not sure that the ps5-gen would do it. Everyone just bought an hdtv, so it'll be 15-20 years before most cycle that out to a tv that would probably support 3d.

But, I like that idea.

[santellan17585]

Personally, I say we wait at least a bit longer for next-gen hardware. The current gen has yet to see it's full potential tapped out, and in this economy, we just aren't ready to buy new machines. Even worse, not everyone has adopted the current gen machines, so releasing new machines would be overkill for those users and possibly result in lossing those potential customers. Best to just wait it out a bit longer. I see new life still able to be breathed into my 360, PS3, and yes...even my Wii.

[charlesthegr8]

Coming out with new hardware at this time is a sure-fire recipe for disaster. It's a one-way ticket to chapter 11 for both Sony and Microsoft. To be better than the current technology it would have to be more expensive than the PS3. The PS3 is already capable of Pixar like graphics; it's just too expensive for designers to take advantage of that potential. It would cost just as much to make a game look like a Pixar movie as it would to make the movie. The risk is just too great.

eelukee is correct, the 3D revolution will likely be the catalyst that brings a new system from Sony and Microsoft; however the reality is that 3D technology is too expensive, still under development, and will be inaccessible to the masses for many years.

For now, if there were to be a new system, it could not come from Sony or Microsoft as they are too heavily invested into their current generations. It is conceivable that Nintendo could come out with a new system, but why would they do that? Their making hand-over-fist right now. A more likely outcome is that a new company will come out and change the gaming world just like Playstation did in 1994 and Microsoft did in 2001.

[jSlides]

What do you consider to expensive for 3D. If you have a gaming PC already and a 120Hz HDTV or monitor and a (newer 8600 or better) nVidia card you can have 3D in most mordern games for $200. All new PC and console games have all the needed information coded in them to provide 3D.

If all you have is a the video card it is $600 for the glasses and the monitor. Check out nVidia's site. I am sure that ATI will have on out soon.

For me it would cost $600 to get set up for 3D. Right now that is too much but as 120Hz monitors drop in price I willl be right there.

I know that this article is about consoles, but I just wanted to point out that 3D technology is here and is not all that expensive, considering the PS 3 was 600 when it came out. This technology makes a large back catalog of games available right now.

[Frankus12]

Yea, that new company is called Apple. lol.

when you say a "new system." that makes me think of Onlive. has anyone heard of that yet? i'm sure someone has. so how do you think streaming HD gaming will do?

[xelanmetallium]

It seems like only this year people started calling the PS3 and Xbox 360 current gen instead of next gen... I feel that it is premature to look for the next console in the near future. Also, I have heard that the Xbox 360 and PS3 are both being sold at a loss. It does not seem likely that these 2 companies would build something completely new when their current cash cows are losing money. Just my 2 cents.

[Renegade Knight]

I have to agree. We don't need next gen yet. The ablity to update firmware on the current consoles and that they are already HD ready keeps them f resh. It's only when games exceede the capacity of the systems that we will need to upgrade.

[d--keller]

No need for next gen yet. I don't think next gen has started still. The Wii is dominating and even the PS2 sells 150k every month. It will be another year at least until PS3 and 360 really catch on.

[externallain]

The games haven't even caught up to the hardware yet.

[Jawknee1]

"Project Natal is made available, it will revolutionize the market."

Too bad Sony already made this crap like 5 years ago. The EyeToy anyone?

Microsoft doing their part! Taking old Tech, slapping their name on it and calling it "revolutionary" please.....

[ivandrago]

It actually looks like the Natal works, if you want to wear a jumpsuit that is.

[Jawknee1]

"PlayStation 4 might be able to provide Pixar-like graphics'"

The PS3 has already achieved this. See Uncharted 2 and Ratchet and Clank Future: A Crack in Time. Its only going to get better from there.

[poly_pusher]

Very attractive games. However, Not Pixar quality graphics. Read up on raytracing. Real-time raytracing and tesselation will be part of the next generation consoles.

[ivandrago]

I think, and I may be wrong, that production houses will emerge that only provides other development houses with content that they otherwise wouldn't be able to afford. A production house that only make high res content for other houses could clean up I think.

[superswiss]

I agree as far as the PS3 is concerned. The PS3 is the ultimate entertainment device and Sony has already shown that they can add and improve features via firmware. It plays pretty much anything you throw at it. Games, Blu-ray, streaming media, you name it. How would Sony even market a PS4? How would you top the PS3, when games haven't even caught up to the hardware and many people don't have an HDTV connected to it? The XBox on the other hand needs a major face lift. It's loud and it looks out of place anywhere but a kids or a dorm room. Make it look as good as the PS3, integrate that monster of a power brick and make it quiet. Then there's this. Was it EA who claimed that they reached the limits of the XBox, but they have plenty of headroom on the PS3? The XBox has one thing over the PS3, the ability to function as a Media Center Extender. I would love to see Sony add this feature in a future firmware upgrade. That would allow me to get rid of my current Media Center Extender in my media room and use the PS3 to access all of my media including recorded TV w/o having to switch back and forward between the PS3 and the Media Center Extender.

[d--keller]

The PS3 already works as a media extender. It actually does a better job than the 360 IMO. Movies, pictures, music, and even recorded TV. I use it with the sharing in Media Player 11.

If you want it to work with Media Center, you'll need a 360.

[HMetal68]

d--keller wrote - "The PS3 already works as a media extender. It actually does a better job than the 360 IMO. Movies, pictures, music, and even recorded TV. I use it with the sharing in Media Player 11. If you want it to work with Media Center, you'll need a 360."

Using Media Player is not even close to the same thing as Media Center. I have 4 Xbox 360s connected to Media Center and can not only watch recorded TV, but live TV using the 360. It allows me to use my Media Center PC as a central DVR that I can access from any of the 360s. Just sharing music, pictures and some video is not the same thing.

And as for my PS3, setting it up to access the same data is not possible. Yes, some of the reasons for the limitations are because of the DRM issues having cable tuners on my PC, but even accessing and browsing just my music collection is not as good as XBox.

I accept your opinion, but respectfully disagree.

[celticbrewer]

I'll agree that the XBox is easy to setup in that fashion with Media Center. Obviously- they're both microsoft. While sony doesn't have that at-PC integration, there are plenty of 3rd party options for doing the same things. I watch amazon and hulu on my PS3- that's not a "standard" option.

That's cool about the extenders. Me, I'll settle for pushing a button and switching to my DVR. Everything else (photos, music, video- including full length films) are on my NAS.

[Jawknee1]

@HMetal68

you have 4 xbox 360s? your sucker and MS reeped the benefits. Why not buy one more? heck go for two then you can have 6. Youll never be without a console when they RROD.

[Jawknee1]

@HMetal68

you have 4 xbox 360s? your sucker and MS reeped the benefits. Why not buy one more? heck go for two then you can have 6. Youll never be without a console when they RROD.

@celticbrewer

i thought Sony announced some kind of PC based service that will allow you do everything the guy with 100 xbox is talking about?(ok 4 xbox's)

[d--keller]

So basically you can set your PC DVR from your 360? That's not a significant advantage to most people. Besides, the only way to use Media Center to record in HD is if you pay to hook a cable box up to it. Otherwise you need 3rd party software that doesn't have the same remote DVR funtionality and eliminates your only valid arguement for why 360 is so vastly superior.

If you can't share all the same files then you have some sort of issue with your setup. I can share all the same files plus AVCHD from my HD camcorder (which 360 can't decode). I will concede the fact that AVCHD is not relevant to most people. What is relevant however, is that my 360 is always loosing connection with Media Centerl. Writing down codes and syncing my 360 to my PC over and over and the HD recording limidations of MC turned me off to 360 as my media extender.

I respect your opinion as well. 360 works pretty well as a media extender. Your statement that the PS3 is not even close is pretty misleading though.

[HMetal68]

Yes, I have 4 XBox 360s. They function not only as game systems and DVD players, but they have replaced my $20 per month DVRs from the cable company which I had 3 of at $60 per month. I know I could have purchased Media Center Extenders for somewhere around $150 (maybe less) but why not spend a little more and get all of the additional features of the XBox. I didn't say they were all 360 Elite.

Using Media Center for TV gives all the functions of the cable box (except on demand) and the cable cards for my PC only cost me about $2 per month instead of $60. Would you rather give the money to the cable company for DVR rentals? And with the cable company DVR I couldn't record something in one room and watch it in another. With my setup I can. Yes, it cost me a bunch to get setup, but I like it and it's my money so...

And I also have a single PS3 and Wii. The Wii is only used by my wife for workouts (my kids wont even touch it) and the PS3 collects dust unless I want to watch a Blu-ray which doesn't happen very often. Of course that is after the hour of updates required by Sony.

[HMetal68]

@ d--keller "What is relevant however, is that my 360 is always loosing connection with Media Centerl. Writing down codes and syncing my 360 to my PC over and over and the HD recording limidations of MC turned me off to 360 as my media extender. "

Sounds to me like you have networking issues or issues with your Media Center PC. I never have problems with my setup. As a matter of fact, I loaned one of my 360s to my next door neighbor during the NHL playoffs so he could watch the games. All over a wireless connection. In HD. (Quick, someone call a cop because I let my 80 year old retired neighbor borrow my cable while he was recovering from cancer surgery)

And yes, my setup was expensive. The PC with Cable Tuners wasn't cheap and obviously buying 4 XBoxes wasn't either. But like most (I assume) that visit this site regularly, I'm a geek. What can I say other than that?

As for the Sony setup that would allow you to do most of the same functions, I looked at that as well and not only would it have cost me more money, it didn't have the same capabilities.

[Inconnux]

now all sony needs to do is redesign it to be an affordable GAMING system... I don't want an all in one system... I just want a good GAMING system.

[aby26]

I DONT THINK THERE IS ANY NEED FOR NEW CONSOLES, BECAUSE GAMES THAT ARE NOW AVAILABLE HAVE NOT USED THE FULL POWER OF THE XBOX360 N PS3 AND OFCOURSE PS3 HAS MORE POWER THAN THE XBOX360 AND WII, SO MICROSOFT MIGHT RELEASE A NEW XBOX720 FIRST AND NINTENDO WILL ALSO RELEASE A NEW WII HD WITH MORE POWER.

[thegreenmenace]

i dont think there is any need for all caps

[crusadex]

I still believe that MS will wait for the PS3 to start selling extremely well and then release the NextBox.
Partly becuase they have stated that in the past and partly becuase they got the jump on everyone with the 360(could have done without the rrod).Even if they don't MS has a long list of rock solid titles.Sony has traditionaly had more titles but %85 of them were garbage.
Either way gaming has alot in store in the future.
P.S i don't dislike the PS3 but it cost to much and there aren't enough good games.Not as bad as the Wii's dismal title list though.We like most wii owners use our wii as a doorstop that is crying for a decent game to be released.....sigh.Come on nintendo comfort our wiii!!!!! we are gonna file wii abuse charges soon:P

[ur2slowmofo]

I agree either microsoft or nintendo will release the next console. More importantly how does nintendo get away with all the crap games it releases for the wii? the controllers are crap as well, especially if you even attempt to play a game that is not "who wants to be a millionaire", and requires some actual button pushing-heaven forbid driving. I know the wii is outselling everything but my wife bought a brand new one and "it is a doorstop" unfortunately it doesn't get used even for that!

p.s. i wonder how many HD tv's how been destroyed by people letting go of those crazy nunchuck controllers?

[FirstReflections]

If both Microsoft and Sony take longer with this current life cycle, it actually gives Nintendo an opportunity to increase their lead even further! The Wii has been a huge success. The release of a "Wii HD" that is fully backwards compatible could easily see similar sales success.

So let's say that Natal and the Playstation Motion Controller both launch in 2010 as expected. What if Nintendo were to launch a Wii HD in time for Christmas 2010 or maybe in the first half of 2011? That could put Nintendo's console on basically equal graphical footing as the 360 and PS3 while MS and Sony are attempting to convince people to buy an add-on that will never gain enough market penetration to be worth the full support of developers.

Simply put - waiting could cost MS and Sony dearly if Nintendo is ready and able to take advantage!

[lil-yankee]

Wii hd will mean nothing more than hd!
Nintendo is not going to nothing more than retro all the crappy games they already have but now you can see mario jumping musrooms in hd! wouldnt that put sony and microsoft to shame?
Nintendo has never done anything sustancial about graphics or gamin for that matter. The wii mote and all of this gimmick things have not made any game changes to the gen, in fact is price alone what has driven nintendo to the top. The reason why microsoft and sony are now going to implement this feature to their consoles is to give nintendo a total run for their money. Not only are they going to implement it- they are going to do it better, both sony and ms. I am very shamed that nintendo is the top seller when they are clearly the lamest console on the market.
It has the lames games, the lames graphics, the lamest design and yet sales like crack because of prize.
If only people whre to be more inform they probably wouldnt buy it, but these ill informed parents that just want to give their son a cheap cristmass present do all the mess. I mean, i bet they go out to buy a console and their son asked them for a ps3 and they come back with a wii saying "they are all the same" stupid people. anyways, yeah. the best seller isnt the best machine, if not ask windows, if not ask crack dealers, is just everything else....

[ewgdsg]

@ lil-yankee:
So thats why the Wii is selling so well huh?

[lil-yankee]

@ ewgdsg
because we are in a recession and most parents could not care less about what the ps3 or xbox can do for $$$$$ amounts of money more. and if you read, after the drop of the arcade 360 to pretty much the same price as the wii, they are selling relatively close, so, there

[sdf0013]

Once again Don misses the mark. It's about money. Both Sony and MS are in awe of the Wii's success. It cracked a market no one thought could be reached. Not just "casual", but "mass-market". The development cost for the Wii had to have been substanitally less than a normal full console R&D push since they largely stayed with the Game Cube's core. THAT is what Sony and MS are looking at. How to make the R&D investment in the current systems extend from 5-7 years to 10+. Answer, change the interface like the Wii did.

Also, it's the market. We know by now that Sony and MS are envious of the casual and mass market that Nintendo has captured. It's a lot of money. Both has been making pushes for more of that kind of content. MS was just first to the punch with a new interface/input device to help move into that direction. Their long term strategy has to be a combination of all the online stuff (come on, it's not the hard core crowd cares that much about 1 vs 100) and the new input to draw the entire family. This could also mean MS will be on the hunt for a non-violent kill app to replace Halo. It'll still be there, but everyone wants a Mario - though no one seems to have been able to crack it fully. Sega is the only one to get close with Sonic and hasn't been able to repeat that successfully.

*IF* MS can pull the right marketing, AND bring in the same kind of audience that the Wii does, this puts Nintendo in a tight spot (IMHO). Having the control ability of the Wii, but the graphics and horsepower of the 360 is a great thing. Tied to the Marketplace and soon to be tied to your Zune, and eventually your portable MS gaming device (Zune as well?). Yeah, I can see MS working towards that. Means Sony has to hurry again and play catch up for it's camera to do the same thing. I know they're working on it, I've seen some early work at last years GDC. But, MS struck first.

[lil-yankee]

Im not sony fanatic but let me just clear this out for you. The idea of a input device that requires the user to move their body and add gaming qualities to objects on the user's end was first introduced by sony with the ps2 and the eye toy more than 6 years ago. That microsoft took it to the next level, give you taht much. althought i should also caution you that sony already is working on a device called wang which they claim is much better than natal "in theory" because is more precise. Just so you know....

[celticbrewer]

We just can't upgrade the current systems as was done in the past. Microsoft is right in thinking the next step has to be revolutionary. I'm not saying I believe natal is it or will even work- just that the fundamental idea behind it is sound.

I use my consoles just as much for non-gaming stuff as gaming. Okay, Wii to a lesser extent, but it does have news and weather. PS3 is a media player king. That's just the first step in the right direction. Consoles need to be entertainment, communication, and information hubs. It's very cool that sony lets you install a second OS on the box- it's not overly practicle for Joe Consumer, but it could be if more effort was put into it. Oh, and thanks for the HD upgrade option. Mine's going to 320Gigs in a few days.

Of course, the problem now is putting everything into the box AND selling it at a price that people can afford.

One last thing- how about some good games? Ones with fresh ideas? Everyone seems to mess their boxers when another reguritated version of Doom or Wolfenstein comes out. C'mon- it's all the same shoot 'em up BS repackaged with a new environment or enemy. Can't someone think of something new besides FPS, Racing, Sports, etc...? Little Big Planet was a small step in the right direction- go further. Guitar Hero? So simple, but so fun.

[macksumum]

it is a clear fact that no one wants a new system.maybe in about another four years from now we may see a new system if we are lucky.

[parttimeaw]

Funny Don talks more about the Xbox than Playstation hmm...still favoring.

[Jawknee1]

Why would it change?