PS3 dominance in three to five years
Former Sony Europe president David Reeves (he retired last Friday) told Games Industry in an interview last week that although the PlayStation 3 isn't dominating the video game industry today, it will--in three to five years.
The PlayStation 3's future domination is in doubt.
(Credit: Sony)"I don't think it will be next year, but in three to five years (the PlayStation 3) will become dominant on the market," Reeves told the publication. "The legacy will be that people will see a tortoise and hare situation. In a way, in the end it will be a dead heat. People will say 'PS3 took a while to get going, but it really caught up very quickly and confounded many of the critics from the first year.'"
Sony representatives have consistently said that they have a "10-year plan" for the PlayStation 3. Sony's Kaz Hirai has said that that kind of lasting power is what the consumer really cares about.
But the idea of a "10-year life cycle" is a red herring. Sony made the same claims about the PlayStation 2, but released the PlayStation 3 six years into its predecessor's life cycle. Assuming Sony sticks to that same schedule, it's entirely possible that the PlayStation 4 will hit store shelves sometime in 2012--the very earliest point, according to Reeves, that the PlayStation 3 could be "dominant." If the PlayStation 3 is really on a 10-year plan, why should Sony release any console before that time is up?
We should also consider what "dominant" really means. If it's measured by the most consoles sold, the PlayStation 3 has its work cut out for it. It's almost 9 million units behind the Xbox 360 and 28 million units behind the Wii. Considering Sony sold 3.6 million PS3 units during its 2008 fiscal year, it would take about three years just to catch up to the Xbox 360 and almost nine years to catch up to the Wii. Oh, and that's assuming Microsoft and Nintendo don't sell one more unit of their respective consoles.
That puts that "three to five years" claim into perspective, doesn't it?
But maybe Reeves meant that Sony will dominate the entire industry, not just this generation's consoles. As I mentioned, there's a good chance that there will be a new generation of consoles within the next three years. Will the PlayStation 3 be all that relevant then? While the PlayStation 2 still sells relatively well years after the new generation of consoles started, its so-called "dominance" isn't considered anymore. It won its console generation. That's it. Now we're on to a new generation with new consoles.
And that's the problem I have with Reeves' comments. They reflect a desire on the part of Sony to maintain its stake to the so-called "dominance" it once enjoyed. The reality is this: the PlayStation 3 is losing this generation. Badly. That doesn't mean Sony can make up for it by promising success in the future.
We don't want promises, Sony. We want results. We don't care about the PlayStation 3's potential dominance in the future. We want a high-quality (and affordable) gaming experience now. And so far, Nintendo and Microsoft are doing a better job of delivering that. Consumers are voting with their wallets to prove it.
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Don Reisinger is a technology columnist who has written about everything from HDTVs to computers to Flowbee Haircut Systems. Don is a member of the CNET Blog Network, and posts at The Digital Home. He is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.
Nintendo might decide to add internal components like a Gigabit card, HD, and maybe a keyboard in the future if they want people to stay connected. Their games are fun and new in style, but lack longevity with their hardware. They've finally dropped the cartridge and have moved to media cards exclusive units on their DSi. Looks like I'll be playing ROMS off my computer for any games that I've missed over the years.
Blu-Ray players are dropping in price and will probably have a TV unit that's less than $100 by this holiday season. By than, the PS3 will drop in price again and people will start purchasing those units for the more graphical intensive games.
As a result of the natural speed increases of broadband, within a decade, consoles will adapt to cloud gaming, and end up being the primary source of revenue (subscription fees to play different games). Imagine playing Madden Online NFL with a full 11 players on a team, competing with other teams online in hundreds of different leagues. Forget the Fantasy Football; Madden Online NFL will be the real deal. NBA 2020 will have thousands of people forming their own NBA leagues and playing pick up games in real time around the world. Rockstar will be filled with whole band groups playing together online, competing with other groups of people. MarioKart will have entire leagues of fans all around the world playing each other on a hundred different courses.
Of course by then, you will have forgotten that you read about this prediction.
BTW, what is CBHD? China Blue High Definition (aka HD-DVD). CBHD players are much cheaper, and the movies cost equivalent to $8 - $12 USD.
Blu-Ray is pretty much Dead On Arrival... the only reason it seemingly won "part 1" of the format war is that Sony bundled a blu-ray player in the PS3, spent (or lost) tons of money on marketing, and Toshiba pretty much said give us the Cell processor and we'll throw in the towel. So Toshiba gained more from quitting HD-DVD than Sony did.
P.S. The reason blu-ray is still so expensive is Sony. Sony is refusing to cut their loses on the PS3 and blu-ray.
Blu-ray will be the standard in the new gaming console and that will take away a differentiator from sony when that happens. What makes a compelling argument to buy a PS3 now will make it a compelling argument to buy the next generation of consoles as well. The other part to this is that there will be a broader release of blue ray dvds bringing prices down so that it makes it affordable to easily switch to blu-ray. Correct timing by the competition could hurt Sony more by offering Microsoft and Nintendo consoles at just the time when people are more seriously considering the switch to PS3 because of the Blu-ray content available.
Truth be told Microsoft won the software war this time. The Wii has sold more units but has sold less games per unit then the other two consoles. Casual gamers want casual games and the Wii can do that. However, hard core gamers are still searching for the next big thing. These are the people who get a new game every couple of weeks. More often then not that has caused them to switch to being at least in someway supportive of Microsoft. My own roommate has found himself playing my Xbox more then his PS3 because the games are there to be played. Also, third party developers sell more games on an Xbox then sell on a PS3. So when all the new programming that is required to take advantage of the new hardware has become more known throughout the industry a new Xbox release can make it look significantly better then the same PS3 that has been around for years. Yet again Sony has forged a new path that make its competitors look good and it look bad.
A new round of consoles is not a bad thing for Microsoft to contemplate. They have been in the market a year longer then all the competition. However, they will probably keep going for at least the next 3 years before releasing news that they are seriously redesigning. For a console that will have been a long life. If that is when the PS3 is moving towards a better position then Sony can not go for the same redesign. They are out of position and will have to admit defeat or keep going with the "10-year plan" talk. The biggest thing at that time will be the likelyhood that they will need to keep the costs down while delivering a substantially more stable platform that is more fun to play.
PS3 is now heading towards the Dreamcast in relevance. A technically superior system that just did not have that one right feature everyone wanted. Sony gave us what they promised and found out that it was just too much. They lived too close to the edge of technology and have now seen why you don't do that. They also did not engage developers as they should have. There were a series of poor choices here that have set up their competition to be stronger. The only gaming system of the last 3 that I expect to be around for 10 years is the Wii. It does not need to change its formula of serving a casual gaming market.
Don do you own a ps3 ? A product shouldn't be overshadowed by its company, so unless you actually owned a ps3 and was dissatisfied with it, I'm calling your claim b-s. Think about it, whats the last thing that everybody actually liked, I know people who don't drink water, water for GOD's sake. Ten years is to long although, Apple will release its gaming system in the $2000-$4000 range, and that will be all the rage.
Sony says the PS3 will have a 10 year life. It's been available for 2 and a half years already. Add 3-5 years on that and you're at 5-7 years to win the market over? Sorry, but tech moves a bit faster than that and 5-7 years after the original release the PS3 will not be cutting edge tech anymore.
Sony's arrogance is confusing. Yes, they completely won the last generation. But to think they can just keep doing the same thing is not only arrogant, it is stupid.
However, before you send the Playstation brand the direction of Sega, don't forget that many journalists, bloggers, haters, and fan-boys wrote off Nintendo after the Gamecube's relatively lackluster sales. Sony may have messed up this time around, but that doesn't mean the lessons gleaned from the PS3 won't be used to make a better, more consumer friendly PS4.
The real power of the XBox is Live. Yes, online play is free with Sony, but you get what you pay for. XBox Live is by far the better on line community. With Live Primetime coming soon, Sony is going to need more than just a couple of good exclusive games.
Just as Sony dethroned the king of the consoles (Nintendo) with the PS2, and Nintendo dethroned Atari, Microsoft has done it with the XBox 360 although not to the same extent (yet). But if MS does things right with the next generation, the PS3 could very easily become the Dreamcast of modern day. If history has shown us anything, it isn't just that the best hardware wins. 3DO was supperior to anything else at the time, and most have never even heard of or seen a 3DO system.
For Sony to think that 5-7 years into the life of a console they can make up the ground they have lost, well that just sounds like a loser failing to admit defeat. Sony seems to think the console war is a marathon when the reality is that it's a sprint. The people buying the PS3 3-5 years from now will not be the gamers that make these companies their money. The gamers already have the system of their choice or like me, all 3. But given the exclusive download content for games like Fallout 3 and GTA4 on the XBox, why would I buy games for the PS3?
Microsoft is a SOFTWARE company and has sold exactally 54 million gaming systems in it's history, 29m 360's, 24m XBOX's
The original XBOX was discontinued after 4 years. In 2007 MS had to set aside $1 billion for hardware failure warranty's (RED RING OF DEATH)
On the other hand Sony's Playstation 2 was released in 2000, you can sitll buy one at Best Buy for $99. They're selling 7,000 a week in Japan and almost as much in the US.
Sony is an ELECTRONICS manufacturer and has sold 254 MILLION GAMING SYSTEMS worldwide, 102m PS1's, 136m PS2's, 21m PS3's. This doesn't include the 50 million PSP's.
Sony's ascent to the top of the mountain once again will start when Sony and it's publishers announce support for PS2 has been dropped. This and a future price drop of the current PS3 will boost sales numbers considerably. The features and value in the PS3 (BUILT-IN WiFi, BluRay Player, FREE PS Network, PSP Connectivity) out do the 360.
As for MS and Nintendo putting out a hardware "refresh" before the end of the PS3's 10 year lifespan. Well MS including a bluray player is laughable becuase Sony/Toshiba own bluray therefore MS would be supporting Sony.
Nintendo can't/won't out "price point" themselves wich keeps the wii in the "introductory" or kids system.
Nintendo and their Wii will fizzle! They put out a novelty system with less power than earlier generations. It is a brilliant buisness strategy for attacking the 4-13 year old demographic. But when it's time to trade in their DS's and Wii's they will be buying PSP's and PS3's
Meanwhile the PS2 is still sold, still supported, and I like that. I bought a PS3 and said" buh, bye" to the 360. I don't want to have to work that hard to enjoy my game library. The 10 years of support mattters to at least one person.
Yes, we all know PCs are better, but how many of those PCs are even seeing half the action that consoles are?
PCs have a problem of being severely fragmented, there are countless configurations of hardware and software.
While there are a lot of libraries out there to deal with this, it can be, and still is, a massive headache.
It is more of a Peak Vs Actual argument when it comes to PCs Vs Consoles.
Just look at the whole Crysis thing.
As for fragmenting the PS3 market, it has already happened, along with Wii and 360 owners.
Firmware upgrades will do that, especially as time goes on.
Blu-ray won't need to change anytime in the next half-decade, next console probably being a faster drive.
All there needs to be is some firmware upgrades to improve efficiency. (which is what has been happening with in-game XMB pretty much every update since it came out, it suffered horribly slow speeds at first)
Hardware upgrades will mainly be in controllers, such as the rumored motion controller they have been working on with the PS Eye.
I would have bought a PS3, but I keep seeing a lack of games that interest me, and at the price tag that they have stubbornly stuck to, I'm not convinced that the in-built blu-ray player can top instant-access netflix HD programming.
Maybe that is what the Sony guy is talking about!
Fortunately, I own all three systems and there are plenty of good 360 games to keep me occupied. There are lots of good cross platform games, like Bioshock, Fallout 3, and CoD World at War, but really none of the PS3 exclusives are worth buying the system for. Not even Little Big Planet, which I was SURE was going to be a knock-it-out-of-the-park experience, is fun for a while but didn't hold my interest more than a few days. I STILL find myself craving Halo 3 and Fable 2 even though I've spent months on each of those games. I don't feel a pull to play ANY of the PS3 games again. It's really sad.
Sony has done this all along though. I remember the Sony president saying "the next generation doesn't start until we say it does" ... the reality is that they started late, they went with an inferior graphics chip, and their online experience is inconsistent and laggy (probably because they don't require broadband connections or server standards). Home is a completely boring experience (but at least it's slow). The SixAxis motion sensing is a disaster. The Bluetooth controllers sometimes lose sync with the system in the middle of a game. You can't play split-screen online with a friend since you can only have one bluetooth headset (the 360 lets 4 people have wireless headsets on the same machine). The list just goes on and on...
Sony won't concede, but they really got their tails kicked this generation. Nintendo got cocky last generation and got theirs handed to them too. Microsoft - it's hard to say... They certainly got their tails kicked last generation in Japan but it's hard to call the original XBox a failure in the US or Europe. And remember Microsoft has a pretty solid track record of reaching complete dominance in their third attempt at anything. It will be very interesting to see what they put out next.
It's interesting for people to brag how much processing power PS3 has compared to others, blah, blah...
But I don't buy a game console because it's technically more advanced, I buy a console because I like the games I can play on them. I don't care if most PS3 games don't even use half of the available processing power and the X-box 360 has to be full throttle to handles its games, I like the games on X-box much more than the PS3. I loved GOW series, and none of the PS3 exclusive is even catching my eye right now. That's the bottom line.
Uncharted, Killzone 2, Burnout Paradise, Call of Duty, Metal Gear Solid 4, GTA4, LittleBigPlanet, Resistance, Ratchet and Clank, PixelJunk Eden, and the list goes on.
Plus what is coming out in the next 6-9months:
Uncharted 2, God of War 3, InFamous, Fat Princess, Ratchet and Clank Crack in Time, MAG, Twisted Metal, PixelJunk 1-4, Heavy Rain, and all the rest of the multiplatform love from 3rd parties. Plus anything unannounced (i.e. Whatever team ICO is working on!!!!)
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So you know, I own a PS3 and a Wii. I have a bunch of friends that own 360s.
Look at review scores alone for the games I mentioned. Enough said. Sony itself has some of the most killer 1st party exclusives that console owners can buy (past, present and future). Bioshock WAS a great 360 exclusive, just like Final Fantasy WAS a great Playstation exclusive in the past. Besides the 2 Xbox 360 franchises everyone talks about (Halo and Gears of War), what else is there in the 360 stable that can go toe-to-toe with the number of exclusives currently out and coming out soon to PS3?
By the way: You don't think God of War 3 is going to be a must play??? Do you think it will be any less awesome than 1 or 2???
E3 is going to be great, for all console owners.
With PC prices hitting the floor. You can buy a competent PC for the same price as an overpriced Video game. It will usually be faster, and you can do more than just games on it.
I do NOT understand why the people spend this much for ANY console. The Wii is for kids. The XBox... Well it has an MS logo which is enough for me not to buy it. and the PS3 is living a dream world of it's creators, in which everyone can afford to spend a months pay or more just to play video games. And it doesn't even come with a freaking game... WAKE THE FREAK UP SONY!!
The people willing to do the moronic thing and actually spend this much on video games are the reason they get away for charging as much as they do for them.
You seem like a reasonable person... *shrug*
Yeah it's best to stick with the PC where nothing is microsoft related at all.
"PlayStation 3, you will see, will be far and away the winner when you look at it by March '08. They really, really will ... It's something that is going to be a slow burner, and suddenly it's like a tsunami; it will just overtake you."
everyone knows about the problems with the xbox360 although there are some exlcusive games that I wish sony would be able to port to their system (gears of war2) but once the public catches on to the limitations of the wii and once the developers are able to exploit the latent power that the ps3 has it will be the dominant system. I am biased because I own a ps3 but what I've found is that there are advantages to the ps3 that you understand when you own one like the free online play wich isnt bad at all. also the blu ray functionality and the dvd playback is great too plus the games look and play wayyy better than the other systems ive seen. all of this the wii isnt even designed to compete and when the novelty wears off it will be more clear.
-O
Late, but true!
Sony Nov 2006 at launch: Wow, finally we can start to rake in money, our loyal ps2 fans will pay whatever we ask because we are Sony.
Sony Post Launch: um? something wrong this low sales number, but no worries, we got Blue Ray!!! 2007 will be the year of blue ray.
Sony 2007: Number is still low, why Blue Ray is not selling! Let?s buyout the movie companies, maybe that will change everything.
Sony 2008: ? still bad, but 2009 will be the year that PS3 shines.
2009: In 3-5 years, PS3 will dominate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983
consoles are a novelty, I genratee that people will get bored of the consoles. Both consoles and the games are on a decline. Micro soft and sony are not going to make back the amount of money lost on consoles ever.
By the way pc gaming is getting better every year. Hardware is cheap right now for pc gamers too. I will make sure not to buy any IBM or AMD hardware because I don't want to support any console hardware companies.
puh leaze.
you think in 3-5 years there won't be a new xbox announced with more processing power than the PS3? you think Nintendo's not going to come out with an HD Wii (wheee!)? will blue-ray even be relevant with another 3-5 years of broadband penetration?
what is Sony smoking?
Since their product is non-competitive today and they know it won't be competitive tomorrow, they promise it will be competitive the day after tomorrow.
Simple reality: Sony is selling *less* PS3s in North America in 2009 than they were selling in 2008.
Considering that throughout its three year life, Sony has continually been crying "tomorrow, tomorrow" it is becoming very clear that PS3 will never be competitive. With PS3, Sony is trying to sell future value at today's prices in a business that fully expects tomorrow's prices to be lower. No surprise then that consumers are taking Sony at their word and waiting for Sony to balance out the equation by delivering that promised value (and the expected price cut) first.
In the meantime, Microsoft and Nintendo have been selling present value, not future promises.
Worse, both have higher installed bases, larger game libraries, lower price points and as much future price cut potential as Sony. And, in Microsoft's case, they are constantly upping the ante by introducing new gaming modes and entire new libraries (Prime Time, Community Games) and finding ways to deliver extra value to 360 customers even for cross-platform games.
Finally, even if we take Sony at their word that PS3 will in fact catch up to 360 in sales in 3-5 years, what does that achieve of merit?
Nothing, because by 2012 the NextBox will be out.
be competitive with the 360 *after* it stops being produced.
Whop-dee-doo!
As for the PS3s alleged "greater" technical superiority, has anybody bothered to rack up the transistor counts of the two architectures?
They are essentially identical.
XBox allocated a greater transistor count to the GPU while Sony allocated a greater portion to their cpu. Add in the symmetrical nature of the 360 architecture and the greater flexibility of their unified memory model and it is clear why PS3 has yet to produce a signature game that might put the year-older XBOX to shame: it can't. The hardware isn't up to it. design bottlenecks don't allow it.
Finally, to add insult to injury, the XBOX has one extra trick up their sleeve; the XBOX architecture is intrinsically scalable. Microsoft is working on a single-chip implementation of the 360 cpu/gpu combo codenamed Valhalla for 2010 delivery. By 2012, they can drop 4 of those 500 million transistor Valhalla chips into a fully-backwards-compatible box they can *profitably* sell for $299. (Moore's Law, children: transistor count doubles every two years! MS was making money off the 360 as far back as early 2007).
In other words, the PS3s vaunted technical superiority is never going to deliver anything of value and it will be clearly obsolete long before it can be competitive in the matketplace.
If it gobbles like a turkey, it probably should be put out of its misefy and be roasted for Thanksgiving.
The only question left for debate right now is whether or not Stringer will cough up the money to design a proper PS4 before 2012. Or, considering how Sony is bleeding red ink these days, *can* he even find the money to ante up for the next round?
I would love to see one simply because Sony would make money from Xbox sales and that would be ironic.
1. Wii ? 50 million, as of 1 March 2009 (2009 -03-01)
2. Xbox 360 ? 28.0 million, as of 1 January 2009 (2009 -01-01)
3. PlayStation 3 ? 21.3 million, as of 31 December 2008 (2008 -12-31)
One year late and 7 million consoles behind doesn't seem so bad. Especially when you look at the gap between the Wii and everyone else.
I love my PS3. I'm sure I would love an Xbox360 too (all though, a lot of the things claims to superiority for the 360 are the sheer number of games and online community - I don't have time to play 20 different games, and I sure as hell don't want to be friends with SSuuppeerrBALLZ420LOL!1!1one).
I have to say the free online gaming (once a week with buds), blu-ray playback, and great exclusives - LBP, and Resistance have been my favorite games (along with multi platform Bioshock and Oblivion) and the upcoming GOW3 have more than made up for the steep price tag.
I would recommend it as an entertainment system.
I love my PS3 too and soon I will also have a 360. They both have advantages and drawbacks over the other one.
- the online gaming is NOT free, someone (most is passed on to the consumer) is paying for the bandwidth costs. Notice that the DLC is more expensive for sony titles?
- blu-ray. Yawn, until the price per movie comes down to a reasonable price, I am not interested.
- LBP + Resistance. Both the Wii and 360 have good exclusives as well... I only have so much time per day for gaming so I pick and chose what kind of games I play.. not saying they are not good, its just the sticker shock price of the PS3 that stops me from playing them.
Look at video game console history... not ONE expensive system has ever been successful. The PS3 wi
- by GreatDevon May 4, 2009 11:25 PM PDT
- To be fair,the bulk of 360 games that make up it's broader library is due in large part to its 2005-2006 lineup,the time period Sony hadn't introduced it's console yet.Now considering this 'vastly superior'games library the Xbox currently has,how many of these has been groundbreaking titles ONLY found on the 360?
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- by Inconnux May 9, 2009 6:28 PM PDT
- once again people are saying that that the sony service is free... sorry to break this to you but SOMEONE is paying for the bandwidth. Sony passes these costs on to the developer... they pass it on to the consumer (Economics 101). Sony customers ARE paying for it but they just don't know it. Ever notice that the DLC for sony titles are more expensive? ever wonder why?
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Showing 1 of 2 pages (66 Comments)TItles worth mentioning are Halo 3,Gears 1/2,Mass Effect,Left 4 dead, the fair amount of JRPJ's,
their multiplatform hits and a future lineup of games like Alan Wake
and a Halo 3 expansion pack..
Since the Ps3's launch, we've seen games the likes of:Littlebigplanet, Ratchet and Clank,Uncharted,Warhawk Motorstorm 1/2,MGS 4,Heavenly Sword,Ressistance 1/2,Killzone 2
and there lineup of upcoming titles such as GOW3,MAG,Infamous,Uncharted 2,GTA 5 and Heavy rain that looks VERY promising!
Oh,and llest we forget its lineup of multiplatform games that if not for 2005-2006,would tantamount those on the 360..
It's clear Microsoft have been marketing gods this generation by giving consumers the illusion that
their console/games are superior to the competition,while Sony quite frankly cannot market for sh*t.
7 million units sold gap between Ps3 and Xbox is barely considered a landslide win for Microsoft, especially considering that they came out a year early and were getting outsold on a monthly basis in 2008 despite the Ps3 being nearly twice the price!Of course,a pricecut for Microsoft was needed to softly turn the tide and possition themselves far 2nd behind Nintendo.
A Mustang sells less than your average Toyota,and it doesn't take a CarSalesman to understand why...
I'll admit,Xbox has a great online service,but Ps3 has a decent online service,a web browser and HOME (for free)
We don't need to get into Hardware reliability and the Blu ray add on...
All in all,both system have enough to offer to keep one satisfyed,i only find it silly when people use sales as a means to justify console superiority.
Arguably,a case of Quality over Quantity.
Ps: I can point out how the Ps3 has been outselling ALL it's competition for the last 2 months in Japan sales despite it's lack of JRPGs and how Microsoft now wants to cut 30% off their price just to get noticed in that territory..but that'd be well..silly.;)
in the last two months (in Japan) the PS3 has been selling well because of a couple Staple Japanese games much like the Xbox360 jumped in sales when a halo title is released. In a couple months it will go back into irrelevance like the past couple YEARS. As for the 360 in Japan... Japanese always buy Japanese made equipment, so there is no surprise there.