How can we expect Blu-ray to succeed?
Online research firm Futuresource released a study Monday that discussed the relative success Blu-ray is enjoying right now in Western Europe.
According to the report, Blu-ray disc sales are up significantly in Europe so far this holiday season, and based on its findings, it believes the strong sales will continue through 2009. In fact, it believes European Blu-ray sales will triple during 2009, seeing 2.5 million players enter homes next year. Similar results are being witnessed in the U.S.
But that's not all. A release last week claimed the latest Batman film, The Dark Knight, witnessed sales of 1.7 million Blu-ray units, representing the most popular Blu-ray title of all-time.
Quite impressive, eh? Well, what if I told you that worldwide combined DVD and Blu-ray sales of The Dark Knight totaled 13.5 million units? Suddenly, that 1.7 million Blu-ray unit mark doesn't look so hot next to the 11.8 million DVDs that were sold, huh?
Of course, we shouldn't expect Blu-ray to catch up anytime soon. According to Futuresource in a study it released earlier this year, Blu-ray isn't expected to outsell DVD until 2012. And even then, Blu-ray will control just a bit more than 50 percent of media sales with DVD coming in around 45 percent to 50 percent. In other words, DVDs will still be a major force four years from now.
Based on all that information, can we honestly sit here and say that Blu-ray has a chance at becoming the success DVD is?
I just don't see it.
I don't think there's any debating that as Blu-ray player pricing comes down and the price of the media itself starts dropping, Blu-ray will start gaining ground on DVD. But once people realize that the difference isn't that great between the two formats and replacing an entire library of movies isn't as fun as it sounds, I'm not convinced Blu-ray will enjoy the kind of success DVD did when it replaced VHS.
More importantly, can we really expect Blu-ray to enjoy any major success as HD streaming becomes more ubiquitous? Consider all the places you can find streaming content: iTunes, online video services, set-top boxes like the Roku Netflix box, video game consoles, and your own cable VOD box. I simply don't see how Blu-ray expects to compete.
Think of it this way: would the average consumer rather buy a Blu-ray player for $250 and purchase movies for $30 at Best Buy or buy an Apple TV for $300 or a Roku Netflix Box for $99 and watch as many movies as they'd like at a cheaper price without going to the store?
I'm willing to bet very few would choose the former.
It's not that Blu-ray is a bad format or that it's not worth using. I simply don't see the average consumer with a family, mortgage, minivan, and constant time concerns with work and baseball practice, choosing an entirely new media format over the simplicity and relative affordability of HD streaming.
Maybe it was bad timing or perhaps it was a complete misunderstanding of consumer desire, but either way, Blu-ray strikes me as just another footnote in the long and storied history of home entertainment.
Now bring on the streaming.
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Don Reisinger is a technology columnist who has written about everything from HDTVs to computers to Flowbee Haircut Systems. Don is a member of the CNET Blog Network, and posts at The Digital Home. He is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.
I disagree. For about 10% of movies (action with great special effects), there is a noticeable difference with Blu-ray compared to an upconverting DVD player, but I wouldn't call it huge. And for several non-action flicks I've watched on blu-ray (like Forgetting Sarah Marshall), it looked no different than a standard DVD. The fact is, standard DVD's look pretty damn good, and the extra quality offered by blu-ray is only appreciated by videophiles. I suspect most of the blu-ray titles you've watched are of the action genre. Keep in mind that's not what everyone watches.
When people say they cant notice the difference in quality between blu-ray and DVD I can only guess they don't have a 1080 display, they are not sitting a the right distance from the display, or they perhaps they haven't been to an optometrist in some time.
I find it ironic that CNET editors don't read CNET's stories about people complaining about issues with NetFlix's streaming service. The issues aren't just limited to selection, which is actually inferior to Blu-ray, but also quality as well. The audio seems to be stereo only. There are no subtitle options and you can't view *ANY* of the extras that you would get with the DVD or Blu-ray disc. That alone makes will keep some people away from online streaming services.
The example of VOD seems to be a canard insofar as VOD has been around for years and I don't hear anyone saying DVD is dead because of VOD so why would that same argument make ANY sense for why Blu-ray can't succeed?
Furthermore, many parts of the country barely have enough bandwidth to make standard def streaming practical. Not everybody has the plentiful bandwidth that many of the CNET editors living in SF enjoy. In fact many people get a tiny fraction of the bandwidth.
As for the CNET editors, which from time to time read comments, I have this question: who is offering legal 1080p video online? AFAIK, except for some trailers and a few short video clips virtually nobody and your article didn't give an answer. Heck, you can't even find a lot of uncompressed 720p content NEVERMIND 1080p. Maybe when 15+Mps bandwidth is the norm and ISPs aren't talking about throttling and capping bandwidth we can start talking about Blu-ray having some real competition, but right now anything remotely similar in audio AND video quality would require far too much buffering time to be practical for most people.
I upgraded to it in preparation of the Digital tv change over in 2009 and its my first tv purchase in 10 years. It was middle of the line in terms of cost and quality. Since its a skinny flat screen it fits nicely in my one bedroom flat, yet big enough should I buy a house next year. I'd have to imagine many pragmatic's shopping along the same thoughts.
people in the tech industry are starting to wonder about your mental state. why so much hatred for a method of storing alot of data on a physical indestructible media? you see even if blu-ray wasn't around there would still be demand by people for storage of large quantity of hidef data. the demand exists regardless of the technology - so stop this king canute crazy behaviour which absolutely destroys any respect the tech fraternity might have for you.
As BD becomes more mainstream, we will see more stripped sets for the masses who don't care about the extras. Look at stripped catalog releases like Terminator 2. You can find it in BB for 18 bucks and at Amazon for 10 or 11.
If the price is roughly the same, why would you choose DVD? And lets not forget that if BD overtakes DVD in 2012, it means it surpassed DVD faster than DVD surpassed VHS, which didn't happen until 2003, 6 years after launch. If BD does that by 2012, they'll surpass DVD, since the former was launched in early 2007, vs late summer 2006 for BD (and only 1 player was available, as I recall)
If you'r saying BluRay is dead because you can't tell the difference in a TV less than 46".... Well...
It's time to upgrade...
The whole point of HD is to get a larger, sharper, BETTER picture... If you buy an HD video player (of any type) and plug it into your 19" RCA TV from 1995, then say that the highest bit rate HD format is doomed because it doesn't look any better than DVD on your set is just ignorant.
It doesn't matter.
For most people, download quality is enough.
What drives media sales is content and convenience. Download, in acceptable quality, beats Blu-Ray in convenience. And currently, Blu-Ray is lacking in content. They simply do not have the movies and TV series I want to see on Blu-Ray. And from what I read and hear, there are lot of people for whom that's the case.
To win, Blu-Ray has to do two things: 1) Lower prices massively, for both players and discs. 2) Simplify licensing, so that more content can be put onto the format inexpensively, in order to make ALL the content you currently have on DVD or downloading only. Currently, distributors shooting themselves in the foot by offering content, like up-to-date TV shows, online only. It's very obvious that they do not have a clue how to deal with the changing distributing world.
Hahaha, wow, right buddy.
Let me guess, you haven't developed opposable thumbs yet?
It takes about 30 seconds to pop in a disc and start watching a BD. It is NO DIFFERENT than standard DVD. I sure hope you were being sarcastic.
Especially the Disney Blu-Rays that use BD-Java for the menus
Which is why I recommend every person looking to get into Blu-Ray to just get a PS3
Because it has a lot more power than any of the Blu-Ray players and loads things real fast... it also is the easiest to update and have the latest features. It also used to cost less and now I think about the same as the high end stand-alone Blu-Ray player. It is a no brainer choice.
You barely even see the loading screen/notice that says it may take 2-3 minutes to load on some players blah blah and you are ready to watch the move.
Blu-ray will win because it is flat-out better than anything else that we have or are likely to see.
The history of home video is that people are far more interested in quality than the pundits usually understand. VCR's, LD, DVD, original-aspect ratio, stereo and surround sound are all things that were completely discounted by professional pundits until consumers made them a success.
HDTV and Blu-ray are the latest victims of this lack of understanding. While it is now recognized that consumers are accepting HDTV, it will take a bit longer to get there for Blu-ray. But get there we will.
I suggest that the author of this article save a copy of his article together with my response, and then take a look back in several years to see how things turn out.
My prediction is that Blu-ray will become the hard-media collectable format. DVD's will no longer be made for new titles but older DVD's will be repressed. Downloads will replace DVD and rental to a considerable degree. But all new titles and remasters will be available only on Blu-ray and that people will embrace the format along with HDTV.
The author of this article is a well known link baiter, so don't even worry about what he says.
"I simply don't see the average consumer with a family, mortgage, minivan, and constant time concerns with work and baseball practice, choosing an entirely new media format over the simplicity and relative affordability of HD streaming."
but, what about the average consumer makes you think that they consider a blu-ray disc more of a "new" format than the not ready for prime time "HD" streaming? Can you imagine a busy family with three kids running around the TV trying to figure out their new Vudu player and waiting a half hour for a download that is HD in name only? Or could you better imagine them sticking a familiar disc into a familiar machine and instantly getting what they want?
HD streaming will see its day, but why suffer now when you can bet a blu-ray player for less than $200 and all sorts of deals on discs.
You are absolutely right. Given a much better selection(most streaming services have terrible selections that make Blu-ray's selection look awesome) and FAR more bandwidth I can see HD streaming becoming common in 5 years, but in the near future I still think it is largely a novelty more than a bona fide competitor to DVD or Blu-ray.
Burning Blu-ray discs is a bit of a canard insofar as most non-technical people don't know how to backup their DVDs now. If being able to easily backup media was a criterion of people adopting something than you wouldn't have seen so many people adopting DVD.
Is your internet capped? Look at the size of a BD and then tell me how many movies of equivalent picture and audio quality you could DL in a month.
Also, get your eyes checked.
Furthermore, while up-converted DVD may not be so bad, a lot of the content online is barely DVD quality. The bitrates on some of these services are lower than DVD and they are only comparable to DVD thanks to much more advanced codecs than MPEG2. Therefore, while I do concede that the difference between upconverted DVD and Blu-ray isn't huge, the content we talking about isn't yet even in the league of either at this point.
Until the issues of poor selection, poor quality, and limited bandwidth are resolved I don't see a lot of streaming services are going to take over from DVD or Blu-ray.
I really don't care one way or the other for Blu-ray outselling DVDs, but I hope streaming and downloads never become the defacto as they stand now, because right now they are extremely lacking in comparison to their DVD counterparts.
2. Don should not be allowed to write about technology ever again (especially after those "articles" related to gaming)
Don comes off as a sore HD-DVD supporter who has disdain for BD.
Why do people want BD to fail? should we not make advancements in quality?
I hope the DVD-BD hybrids hit american shores, that and the 400GB BD discs developed by Pioneer.
When people can purchase an entire series of their favourite TV show on one disc at a fraction of the cost of the multi-DVD versions they'll sure feel stupid for badmouthing DB.
This will never work. This is a tech blog, go look at a Samsung LN46A950, or an XBR4/5/8 with AMP or Motion Flow on, with a Blu Ray movie playing. It looks 3D and believe it or not, better then real life. It's quite unbelievable. Even my girlfriend who thinks every TV looks the same and can't tell the difference normally, can tell the difference when blu ray is playing on one of these TVs. So much so that she keeps asking me when I'm going to buy one.
When streaming HD looks that good and the bandwith exists to stream, I'll believe you. Unfortunately US bandwith levels and the new caps on bandwith won't allow that to happen anytime soon.
At this point all of the Digiatal Media is rental. Even what you can buy is limited by a lisence to never ever transfering it to anyone else. That's a rental.
People who want to own a movie will still buy it in a handy meida. How fast they adopt BlueRay depends on the price of the players and the cost of the movies. We have a player and my wife still scoffs at the price of the movies and would rather buy DVD.
How did you watch most of your movies at home, back in the day? My rental/purchase ratio was probably 100-1, or more.
If streaming is the rental model and blu-ray is only competing in the videophile disc-purchasing market, then Don is correct. Blu-ray is done.
For this reason I think Bluray will eventually become a universal standard like DVD is today, but it very well may be the last. If the rest of the world had the services that the US does then there might be an argument that streaming services will take over. But they won't - not just yet. Broadband penetration isn't what it should be and many places in the world have poor speeds (I'm on a 2.5mbit connection now) and bandwidth caps (poor Australia).
Also, people just like discs. I do. I'd rather own the Dark Knight on Bluray than buy it in HD from iTunes.
Blu-ray I think will be the last physical media before we move to a purely digital format that is sold through the internet, but Blu-ray and DVD will remain popular for many years before internet download/streaming services become the norm.
I think most people are going to wait for bandwidth to become more plentiful and maybe for somebody to agree upon one standard DRM scheme for non-rentals presuming that we don't eventually drop DRM entirely like some in the music industry are moving towards. Nobody wants to buy a iTunes DRM or other fill in the black DRM encoded file that is a pain to convert to another DRM scheme if the industry settles upon some other DRM scheme or none at all. Too many people have been burned on buying DRM encoded music that they ended up losing the ability to playback that I think a lot of people are going to wait until either one DRM scheme becomes the standard or DRM goes away.
In the time it took my available internet connection to go from 9600baud modem up to 2.5Mb symmetric, I've seen the typical high-end harddrive go from 256MB (woot my Performa II rocked) up to a stellar 1TB or more. We now have usb-thumb-drives that reach 64GB. A CD capacity of 780MB has scaled up to theoretical BD capacity of 400GB... and that is definitely not the end of the physical disc media potential.
To think bandwidth will increase all over the modern world (and especially in more rural areas of the US where we still have people without ANY broadband at all) by as much as physical media capacity could expand is just simply a bad gamble.
Blue-Ray has a ton of future customers who will line up in droves when the player and disc prices fall to be a competitive VALUE to the current DVD. The main slowdown right now is that the average customer has a TV that does not showcase the DVD properly, much less the Blue-Ray... but when they have the hardware to notice that DVDs are 'low-quality' they'll pay for the Blue-Ray.
On a side note, I would hope that cnetNEWS fire Don. Hire me instead. :o)
Physical media remains the only practical way to buy movies.
It is great that you live in a community that has the option, but that doesn't mean anything to the millions of households who don't even have the option. Until availability becomes a lot better HD streaming isn't going to be practical for a lot of people. Heck, there are some more rural parts of the country where "broadband" doesn't even have enough bandwidth to stream SD quality content! If you got outside of your bubble or simply read any recent article on the controversy over the issue of broadband availability you would realize that you situation isn't the norm.
As for durability of Blu-ray you can take steel wool to a Blu-ray disc and it will still play. I saw a demo where one had to take a steak knife to the thing before it stopped playing. The physical discs are pretty sturdy. Not impossible to destroy, but far sturdier than you give credit. Furthermore, Blu-ray doesn't have to cost $30. I saw an entire section at Fry's of older titles that were available on Blu-ray for $7-15. The notion that all Blu-ray discs cost $30 is an outdated notion posed by people who haven't shopped around recently.
While Blu Ray might not take the crown from DVD right now, as more HDTV sales go on, as decent players fall even further from their 250 dollar price point, expect Blu Ray to succeed more. And luckily old DVDs are up converted to look better (why replace them).
Also, most blu ray players will be equipped with netflix/blockbuster streaming anyway. Expect 2009 to see the definitive blu ray player with built in wifi, netflix, and be 250 bucks in fall 2009 (a joyous holiday for all).
Streaming is the future, and other countries will get it rolling before we do. Here in the U.S. though, discs are going anywhere just yet.
- by thescale December 23, 2008 12:18 PM PST
- Lame.
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- by JRGandara December 24, 2008 6:22 AM PST
- "But once people realize that the difference isn't that great between the two formats"
- Like this
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- by thescale December 24, 2008 12:56 PM PST
- JRGandara
- Like this
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Showing 1 of 6 pages (166 Comments)Yet another "expert" writing about how Blu-ray will fail. How original.
How tick is your glass? Everyone who comes in my place and sees a 1080p movie think it is awesome! You have to rewiew your concepts. I'm even avoiding whatch DVDs because looks so lame compared to Blu-Ray!
IMHO, online HD rental is far from us as a quality option.
I respect your opinion, but saying a DVD is not too far from the Blu Ray in image quality is a joke.
What? Who the hell are you replying to? Me or the original article? Also, your post is pretty much incomprehensible. Try again.