Why I can't wait for the iPod to die
Steve Wozniak said it best in his exclusive interview with the Daily Telegraph earlier this week: "The iPod has sort of lived a long life at No. 1," he said. "Things like, that if you look back to transistor radios and Walkmans, they kind of die out after awhile.
"It's kind of like everyone has got one or two or three. You get to a point when they are on display everywhere, they get real cheap, and they are not selling as much."
Finally, someone on the "inside" at Apple has made some sense about the iPod and its future. Although it may be difficult for Apple zealots and even CEO Steve Jobs to understand, the iPod is not going to be one of the most important devices forever, and if we consider the impact the Walkman had on the industry, the iPod should be moving to the execution chamber in the next 5 to 10 years.
Nowhere is that more apparent than in the Apple Store itself. How many times must Jobs find his way to the stage only to show off an iPod with barely upgraded specs and a so-called fresh design that we've seen already? Granted, the iPod Touch is unique in its own right, but the iPod Nano and Shuffle have been the joke of the iPod world for years now. The design changes look more like Apple felt it needed to do something to get people to keep buying them, so they went from long and thin to short and fat and back to long and thin again. And don't even get me started on the iPod Classic.
But it's tough to make the argument that iPods will die when sales are up. According to the company's latest quarterly filing, iPod revenue is up 7 percent since last year and unit sales have jumped 12 percent.
Of course, that doesn't stop me from wanting the iPod to die off as soon as possible.
So why do I look forward to the day when the iPod is no longer the toast of the town and finally enters the retirement home? It's simple: it means that the industry has grown, more innovative products are finally available, and we can get away from all the derivative garbage we're seeing at every turn.
When one company makes it big with a product in the tech industry, every other company in the market wants to try its luck in the same space. Because of that, we've seen countless iPod-wannabes like the Zune, the iRiver Clix, and many more. None were able to vanquish the leader, and few were even able to make a dent. And yet, all these companies still try to make their iPod competitors work.
Here's a clue: it'll never happen if you do the same thing Apple does.
Apple has been successful in the PMP (portable media player) market because it provides a real end-to-end solution that easily eclipses the competition's. Let's face it--buying a device and getting it to work with third-party software isn't easy and it's not seamless. But buying an iPod and getting it to work with iTunes is quick and easy. It's usability that attracted people in the beginning and it's the iPod's enormous popularity that attracts them now.
But that popularity is attracting all kinds of bad things, too. How many times do we have to see another iPod clone before we finally say "enough is enough?" And how many times must we sit back and watch as Apple dominates the market without one real competitor to stop it?
It's not that I dislike iPods--I own three. Instead, I think the iPod is the main reason why innovation is at a standstill in the PMP market and why we're not being satisfied nearly enough by the right devices.
As Apple continues to sell millions of iPods, it realizes that it has no reason to change tactics and try something new. And as executives at other companies look at the state of the economy and their company's own financial health, they think it's better to offer a PMP that will appeal to a small percentage of the market than take a risk and try something new.
And therein lies the rub. How can we get out of this vicious cycle if neither the leader nor the others competing in the market want to change anything?
The way I see it, nothing will change until Apple experiences a year of declining iPod sales. Once that happens, its competitors will panic and try to be the first to the market with something innovative and Apple will be forced to make serious changes to the iPod or come up with something new altogether. And once that happens, the market should start booming with innovation once again.
And I, for one, can't wait until that happens.
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Don Reisinger is a technology columnist who has written about everything from HDTVs to computers to Flowbee Haircut Systems. Don is a member of the CNET Blog Network, and posts at The Digital Home. He is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.
The iPhone is that next move. They know that the MP3 player market is drying up and they've already moved on to bigger and better things. But it's not like they're going to just decide to stop selling iPods just because the market is drying up. They know they can change the color and shape a bit, bump the capacity, lower the price, and the masses will continue to eat it up for the time being.
As long as there are people to buy them, the iPod isn't going anywhere, sadly.
Everyone wants to get into the home and I can't help but think that that's where everything is going.
What do you think?
-Don
-Don
Also, learn the proper use of 'you're' and 'your'.
What do you think?
-Don
-Don
Full featured client (with and without phone): iphone 3g and ipod touch
Portable lightweight with manual manipulation (wheel): nano
Small play-list capable, highly portable: shuffle
High Capacity (until flash drives large enough to retire this line): classic
I own two iPhone 3Gs, two Nano 4th Generation (16G) iPods, a 2GB shuffle, an Apple TV, three Airport Express base stations, an Airport Extreme base station, and a Mac Mini. I've been buying Apple products since 2005 along with my PCs and manage all my multimedia content in the Apple universe. This is not to say I'm stuck buying my content from iTunes. It's quite easy to acquire content from CDs, DVDs, and other online stores like Amazon MP3 for use here.
What I'm looking for is technical competence and an assurance that the system will be maintained for the long-term. Microsoft, Yahoo, and Real have all proved that they're going to keep throwing technical approaches at the wall and hope that one sticks. If you bought content using some of their older systems, well, hope you never have to upgrade your PC after they take the license servers down.
In the mean time, Apple has a winning formula and there's no reason that they can't stay on top of the game for the long-term. As long as they stay true to their spirit of innovation, strong sense of style, and don't abandon the customer needs/preferences, then they will do well for the long-term.
This is not to say I don't want competitors like Samsung, Sandisk, Microsoft, Sony, working on alternative technologies. I do. I want my iPod to sync with iTunes over my wireless network. I want my iPhone to function as a remote access client to my Mac Mini (via Back to My Mac). In fact, there's been reporting that the 4G nano wasn't going to come out with a 16GB capacity but did so because of competitive pressure--that's good. I'm waiting patiently for the 32GB iPhone 3G and Nano as that will enable me to sync all of my music. I have a feeling that competitive pressure will result in those models being introduced by the end of 2009 if not sooner.
In any case, there is no preordained rise & fall of the Apple empire. McDonalds, Starbucks, Apple, Walmart, etc. All of these companies have a winning formula and build on it.
-Don
IPod may still hang around very much into next decade, smart devices like IPhone are the future.
-Don
-Don
Did you see latest Zune software on Vista (3.0)? iTunes is ashamed to stay on PC after Zune is installed :)
Also apple has a long way to go until they work out all the synchronization stuff - for example my iTunes (latest version) crashes all the time on Vista and is unable to synchronize Contacts or Calendar. I guess Apple developers are not very bright after all :)
-Don
The problem is, most people who are not satisfied are those that have an attention span of minutes. Why can't we be happy with a product that delivers so much. Every time Apple or any other manufacturer comes up with an upgrade, I then need new cables and attachments. That is my complaint. I still own the original iPod that works great, the author makes fun of the Classic, but I bought it because of its versatility. Huge hard drive for all my music, movies, backup drive for when I travel, etc. Shame on Apple for providing me with an all in one product that works seamlessly with everything else.
I hope you complainers go out and buy all the wonderful junk produced by most other manufacturers (I am not saying Apple is the only good one).
I've yet to have a problem with synchronization. Maybe if you stopped using that "piece of crap" Vista, you'd have less problems.
Subscriptions are for fools. Why would I want to pay monthly just to "rent" songs? For what subscriptions cost, I can have all the music I really want to have, and have it forever!
And on the video game front: obviously you're a major Apple fan, so why wouldn't you want to see Apple release a game console? Why is it such a bad idea?
-Don
I think the author's prediction has come true, as Iphone OS 2.0: it may not hook up to the tv, but the Iphone can play many very fun and addictive games.
dont put words in my mouth, hell, dont put anything in my mouth, cuz i bite down...
dont put words in my mouth, hell, dont put anything in my mouth, cuz i bite down...
Again, why CNET hasn't fired you yet is beyond belief.
-Don
It's always amusing to me how lesser minds so easily toss off what Apple® has done for the *other* portable music player manufacturers/mobile phone developers. Competition is good for the marketplace, but only if the competition can develop a competitive product, which it has yet to do.
As far as iTunes not synching correctly and/or crashing on a Vista box, alenas -- WOO HOO, that's a hoot! iTunes MUST BE the culprit in that scenario. = ^ )
Why are Porsches more expensive than Mustangs? Because Porsches suck? You unapologetic 'Windows guys' are always good for a laugh. Thanks!
~ An Unapologetic Apple Guy [CNET editors' note: Profanity deleted]
But how am I somehow transparent? Oh and I love the "lesser minds" comment. Nice one. It hurt.
First off, competition in the marketplace is non-existent, as a I pointed out in the column. Secondly, no one discussed pricing nor iTunes not syncing properly. Not sure if it's something you wanted to get off your chest, but I don't know where it came from.
Oh and if you read my stuff, you'd quickly realize that I'm not a "Windows guy" as you like to say. In fact, I'm just trying to be honest -- something people on BOTH sides of the fence tend to forget.
-Don
Also, since we are resorting to car comparisons, one might compare Henry Ford to Steve Jobs. Both tried to keep options simple for easier production and profitability. Both were very innovative in their time, and were seen as icons. Henry Ford however, ultimately became the stumbling block to innovation at Ford, to the peril of the company's success. Until he saw Model T sales drop dramatically due to competition, he did not advance automotive technologies significantly. He finally gave in and developed the Model A, which put Ford back into a leadership position. That lapse in market lead, however, allowed many other competitors to establish a significant foothold in the market, including GM, Chrysler, and American Motors. So, i think the author is quite well supported by history in his speculation. Apple may stay ahead for a long time, but unless they somehow manage to keep pushing and outpacing themselves, they are going to stagnate until the market pushes them to move forward. That will especially happen when they have a "Chevy" at their heels.
But hey - I thought your compatriot at the Cheapskate blog thinks there are a huge number of way more innovative players than the iPod.
Or is he click-baiting too?
The iPhone and iPod Touch are what Apple is banking on for the future. You even say that yourself. You said "the iPod Touch is unique in its own right" and then later said "it means that the industry has grown, more innovative products are finally available"
So you hate Apple. You hate the iPod. OK. I'm OK with that, you're entitled to like and use whatever you want. But if you're going to make an argument at least think about what you're saying. You effectively said that you want something that has grown and is more innovative than the click-wheel iPod. And that's the iPhone/iPod Touch.
A geek toy, the mp3 player, becomes an ubiquitous presence in less than a decade. Luck? Cutthroat competition? Or simply understanding how the public perceives technology?
More than one technological blogger has been giving the 'been there, done that' sermon lately. It's really simple. Either generate enthusiasm with a small segment, or make your appeal universal. All competitors to the iPod have done neither, simply aiming for 'marketshare' and a supposed majority of users in a vague way.
TheiPod-dummies are easy pickins though because they can`t hear someone sneaking up on them , or hear a car coming either. iPodders are easy targets for theft/assault/accidents.
you actually wrote 4-5 sentences without making a single valid point...wow
You gotta be kidding...
- by CouchGuy October 7, 2008 2:06 PM PDT
- Uh...
- Like this Reply to this comment
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Showing 1 of 3 pages (83 Comments)Apple already HAS moved on to the next big thing -- called the iPhone/iPod Touch. These devices are so much more than an iPod, and they represent the direction for the future. As usual, Apple broke the new ground and no one else has anything like them -- yet. Apple has plenty of head start here (especially with the iPod Touch -- the new computing/communications/entertainment platform for the people who already know the cell phone is yesterday's news).