Why the Playstation 4 won't have Blu-ray

One of the key components in the Playstation 3 won't be in the Playstation 4 if Sony plays its cards right. And which component is that?

Its Blu-ray drive.

I know Sony zealots will probably scoff at the very thought of Blu-ray not being included in the Playstation 4 because of their belief that so much of Sony's future is tied to Blu-ray, but I'm not willing to sip the Kool-Aid.

To me, Blu-ray is the LaserDisc of its time. It's not nearly as useful as the DVD that it's trying to supplant, and the future is coming on so quickly that it may not have the time to cement itself in the industry before HD downloads become the next big thing in the space.

To make matters worse, I simply don't see how we can categorically say that Blu-ray was such a major part of Sony's success this year with the Playstation 3. Let's be honest--is the average mainstream user who isn't tech-savvy at all, really buying a Playstation 3 to watch the same movies they have on DVD already?

But the fact that the Playstation 4 won't feature Blu-ray goes far beyond the fact that it's not as coveted in the Playstation 3 as some want to believe. In reality, it's more likely that the Playstation 4 won't have Blu-ray than you may think.

The Playstation 4 should be made available in the next three to five years. During that time, Sony will need to work on getting Blu-ray into more homes and try to supplant DVD as the leader in the media space.

But how will it do that? The main advantage DVD still enjoys is that it's mobile and ubiquitous. You can bring a DVD from your house, play it in your car en route to your buddy's place, and finish it when you get to his house. You can't do that with Blu-ray and the chances of it happening soon are slim.

It took DVD almost a decade to reach that kind of saturation, and Blu-ray simply doesn't have that much time. With companies like Apple, Amazon.com, Netflix, and others quickly moving towards a home environment that doesn't require a disc, but rather a download or streaming service, Blu-ray can't compete.

It's becoming easier and easier to stream movies from your computer to your HDTV. A Roku Netflix box means Blu-ray isn't even needed anymore, and cable companies offer VOD service for those that don't feel like popping a DVD into the player. And as broadband speeds increase, making HD downloads more relevant, Blu-ray finds itself squeezed out by the past and the future.

And all the while, Sony is left to make the decision of whether or not it wants to tie its next video game console to an irrelevant format.

But don't take my word for it. Andy Griffiths, the director of consumer electronics at Samsung UK--a strong Blu-ray supporter--told Pocket-lint earlier this month that Blu-ray would be dead in five years and forgotten in 10.

"I think it (Blu-ray) has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10," he told Pocket-lint in an interview.

Sony has also been making waves with a new brand of Bravia HDTVs, which will work with the company's MovieLink technology, making Blu-ray and even DVD useless by streaming content directly to the HDTV without the need for a set-top box. If that doesn't make Blu-ray irrelevant, what does?

Granted, the next iteration of the Playstation will need a format to play games on and it might be easier for Sony to use Blu-ray, but I'm not so sure it has to. Microsoft has done just fine using DVDs with the Xbox 360, and game developers have shown that DVDs can still be a fine solution. Even better, DVD production will be even cheaper when the next generation rolls around, and although Blu-ray will be too, it'll undoubtedly cost more to use that format instead of DVD. And in an industry that's being dominated by high cost and diminishing returns, developers will want to save money in any way they can.

The argument is oftentimes made that DVD was experiencing the same issues Blu-ray is today and everything will turn out just fine. And while that's true on a number of levels, the argument fails to address the fact that DVD wasn't being impacted so heavily by the future the way Blu-ray is. After all, the idea of HD downloads and streaming movies to an HDTV were hopes and dreams when DVD first made a splash.

Sony learned quite a few lessons during this generation. It learned that developers really do matter and making them happy is a key component in being successful. It learned that people want a video game console first and an entertainment device second. Not the other way around. And most importantly, it learned that providing a worthwhile experience while keeping the device's price down is just as important as the games.

Can Sony truly learn from those mistakes if it hitches itself to the format that representatives from other companies say will die soon and even its own strategy suggests the same outcome?

Assuming what the analysts say is true--Sony will release a new console in three to five years and Blu-ray will be dead in five--how can the company justify putting a Blu-ray player into the Playstation 4? Does it really want to tie itself to a loser even though it spent so much money trying to make it a winner?

Given the company's financial woes in the video game space as of late, that could turn into its greatest blunder.

The technology industry is pushing Blu-ray aside as more capable offerings become available. I think Sony knows that already and will try to milk Blu-ray for as long as possible. But once the Playstation 4 is announced, the company will make its strategy known: it will forgo support for Blu-ray in the video game space and start focusing on streaming and HD downloads--the future of the industry.

Check out Don's Digital Home podcast, Twitter feed, and FriendFeed.

[compudoc318]

I love the quality of blu-ray so far. Ive even had 2 friends in the last 2 months who were both in there 40's and not gamers, buy a ps3 after seeing bluray movies on my ps3. You really need a nice tv and hdmi to really see the difference, but on newer movies, like spiderman 3 (terrible movie..lol, but i got it free bluray with the ps3) the picture difference is awesome. The sandman scenes are stunning. If bluray goes away, itll be due to a better product, but for now, i love it, and i see more people using it every day.

[dd13reis]

There's no debating that on the right rig, Blu-ray looks much better. But that doesn't really translate to gaming and HD downloads will be a reality, which means Blu-ray won't even be needed, right?

-Don

[The1egend]

The only problem I have with the argument that Sony won't include it, is that you're saying that Sony, the main benefactor from all of the Blu-Ray R&D and profits since it is their format, would choose not to put a technology that would be much cheaper and more ubiquitous in their next generation console due out in a relatively short timespan (3-5 years). People still aren't convinced of movie downloads. You have to back them up onto other HDDs to ensure that they won't get miraculously deleted by some bad pagefile. The quality that I have seen from Netflix's downloadable movies was poor at best last I saw, although they may have gotten better.

I just don't think that Sony, with all of it's vested interest in the success of Blu-ray would choose not to put it in the next system.

[dd13reis]

I totally understand what you're saying, but I'm saying that it could stand to lose more if it keeps it in than to leave it out. I think it would doom the whole gaming division by doing it and possibly cut an arm of the company off.

-Don

[HighwayHome]

Won't all types of physical media discs become obsolete one day once download speeds increase to where large files can be downloaded rapidly? The only reason this discs are still around is because a percentage of the consumers still do not know how to download & transfer content files.

[nogoodloginsleft]

You might also want to keep in mind the HUGE difference in data capacity of a DVD and a Blu-Ray disc. As games get bigger and better and more media-rich, that extra space is necessary. Remember the bad old days of games that required disc swapping?

[aztec92154]

I would say that most computer games still come out on CD roms (they just include multiple data compressed disks). In the future, publishers will move on to DVDs and in extreme cases pack data into multiple disks (with 3:1 compression if necessary). DVDs can hold about 8 gigls, with compression (were talking about video games here) about 24 gigs. Thats enough to hold plenty of HD Video and Data for the needs of a video game. Remember, if Nintendo has taught us anything -again-and-again- its NOT the technology that makes the game, its how fun and affordable a game is. DVD vs Blue ray--- Can you see the difference between DVD and Blueray games on XBOX and PS? No.. data is data...

[dd13reis]

Good point. But what about better compression techniques and the fact that computer games still don't use Blu-ray even though they're more capable?

-Don

[bdrex28]

Honestly, sometimes I am surprised at those who are supposedly so Tech Savvy. Honestly, you'd think someone who writes for CNET would understand the difference between what DVD offers and what a Blu-ray disc offers, even outside of HD Video/Audio. For example, how useful is a blu-ray disc to an IT manager who wants to store data on a medium that can hold 50GB of information?

As for the same old "HD Downloads are coming" argument....really? Tell me, how long will it take you to download a 35-45GB movie? Where will you store it? Unless of course, 5 TBs of storage is going to become mainstream soon. People mention some of the current "HD Video" that is downloadable, such as the Apple TV. Take a look at it's compression and actual data rates. It's not even close to what Blu-ray or for that matter HD-DVD provide and thus shouldn't be compared.

Lastly, in regards to the HD downloads. You're already seeing companies such as Comcast and Time Warner limit downloads to their customers. Do you really think they'll allow people to download movies of that size on a constant basis?

[dd13reis]

Ah, but you miss the point bdrex (apropos name, by the way). What about better compression? What about the fact that the PC gaming business doesn't even care about Blu-ray even though the next-gen of console gaming graphics will be on an equal level?

And your beliefs are rooted in today's wisdom. Broadband speeds will increase and download times will decrease over time. You can't assume status quo 4 years from now.

-Don

[kksing]

That might be true of the US, but in other parts of the world, like Japan (where Sony is from ;) ) FTTH is a reality and a 35-45 GB d/l could be achieved in a matter of minutes, assuming a full complete download and not some form of streaming.

As for storage, 1TB hard disks are already affordable. So, 5 years from now, I do expect 5TB hard disks to be mainstream and even higher capacities to be available.

[Super2online]

I agree whole heartedly. Blue-ray will suffer it's fate from the hands of the same technolgy that created it- digital media. The only remaining bottleneck is download speeds which most people are now saying will be in the 50-100mb/sec rate and at that point there is no need for a disc or player. Select the movie you want and within seconds it starts playing. The system it downloads to will provide all the same player features and the download itself can offer the same bonus features that the current discs do.

[nic.disassembly]

it will depend on the feasibility of the media...i mean with music, there are people still buying and playing vinyl records out there, major labels still produce them...but of course im sure iTunes sells more mp3s than brick and mortar stores sell vinyl records...

you'll probably see BluRay, but more as an afterthought, just like we saw the initial SD and Memory Stick reader on the PS3...it will be a way for you to transfer content, if you'd so choose....

[BarnabeeJones]

Given the progression of there past consoles, I could see the argument of the PS4 being a new better format. The PS1 was CD, PS2 was DVD, and now the PS3 is Blu-Ray. It?s a logical progression. As technology improves, so do there consoles. We are only just starting to see Blu-rays be used to there full potential as a gamming medium. We are already seeing games not possible on the other consoles. Sorry to tell you but, Blu-Ray was the correct way for the PS3 to go.

[dd13reis]

I agree that there is a possibility of something new, but I don't see it being included in the PS4. I just don't.

-Don

[Thought1]

It does seem like the biggest benefit of BD, higher video quality, can be supplanted by HD downloads. What about HD video. Without a HD disc, how will consumers make use of all the new HD camcorders and AVCHD content? Seems like you would need more than a streaming service. You need to be able to edit, store and play and that gets more complicated without being able to burn a personal disc. You end up needing a home network server and gigantic lifelong storage.

[harperjm--2008]

Reasons why the PS4 may still have Blu-Ray

1) Games like "Little Big Planet" need the extra space
2) Fast internet is not as accessible in some locations (I have DSL - and to download a full game would be painful).

Reasons why Sony would love not to include Blu-Ray

1) No more competing with used game sales. Direct downloads of games would be more profitable for them.

I'm sure there are more....

[dd13reis]

1) They can work just fine on a DVD or something else. Look at PC gaming.
2) You're applying conventional wisdom to the future. Don't expect status quo broadband speeds.

-Don

[icowrich]

If they go direct download, then they'll have a perpetual problem competing with old games, since there will never be a new format after direct download. As long as they have disc-based standards, they can keep changing it up, forcing us to buy new format after new format.

[binarystatic]

I just don't see how HD streaming and/or downloads will take off any time soon, at least not in the U.S. With most major broadband service providers implementing data caps, how many Blu-ray quality movies could one download before hitting their caps? If you're a heavy net user it's not hard to suck down huge amounts of bandwidth as it is. Providers such as Comcast won't allow this unless you're buying the movies directly from them.

[harperjm--2008]

Reasons why the PS4 may still have Blu-Ray

1) Games like "Little Big Planet" need the extra space
2) Fast internet is not as accessible in some locations (I have DSL - and to download a full game would be painful).

Reasons why Sony would love not to include Blu-Ray

1) No more competing with used game sales. Direct downloads of games would be more profitable for them.

I'm sure there are more....

[E B]

I don't see movie downloads as taking off any time soon. If it was such a great idea, why isn't PPV as big as DVD is now? Because people don't want to RENT their movies, unless they're paying bargain basement prices. Are they going to charge $1/day for a rental, like Red Box does? If not, people won't pay it.

Even bargain prices aren't necessarily a winnter. Just ask a family with kids if they'd rather pay $20 for a Disney or Pixar DVD, or if they'd rather pay $1 each time their kids want to watch Cars again. It's no contest. People want an option to OWN their content. It seems improbable that there will be a compelling way to OWN your downloaded content. In fact, all the arguments you give for why DVD is better than Blu-Ray (play it at home, in the car, in the friend's house) are awesome arguements against a downloading model.

Movie downloading is cool. It's just not practical, and not for bandwidth reasons, either. Consumers won't take to it in the next 10 years. In 20, maybe, when today's kids are having kids of their own and starting to take over decision-making positions in the movie studios, but not in 10.

[epross]

When I saw your comment about cars, I totally agree. I have a three year old and we watch cars almost every day. I paid $20 for the DVD. If I had to pay $1 a viewing, we'd easily be over $50. Subscription services just aren't always attractive to all people at all times. People also like to "own" things not some abstract download that could go "poof" in a moment. I think HD downloads have a long way to go. Certainly more than 3-5 years.

[kksing]

I agree... But what if the downloadable movie was 'sold' to you. You won't have a physical copy of it, but you will be able to store it & replay it countless times (this may require you to have huge hard drives to store the files, or there could be an option to stream the movie everytime you watch it).

Apple proved that such an idea could work with music and iTunes. I doubt it will be too long before we see something similar for movies.

[ev61]

If you think Blu-ray is beyond the mainstream user, think about high speed internet! Without faster internet than what is available for less than $100 a month, downloads are simply a thought. The number of people without high speed internet is truly astounding, and though you may think blu-ray is on the cutting edge and dying, you are out of touch with those who don't spend $50 a month to check their email. Blu-ray is without monthly fees and still unmatched in terms of picture quality. There is no reason the format will disappear in less than 10 years, and even then, you have to overcome the fact that most people don't even backup their DVDs, which are far less likely to fail than a hard drive.

Think about streaming TV shows right now, and how difficult it is to watch everything you like. You need to go to Hulu for one network's offering, aol for another, itunes for a third and Netflix for others. Not tomention some are not even available yet. So, we have a monthly cost to simply have the right to purchase or watch shows, and then we have to track down their location and pay again. Blu-ray is one, simple format that allows anything you have in disc form to be played back. Digital downloads are years behind...

[dd13reis]

Exactly -- they're years behind. Just as many years as it will take to release the next Playstation. I'm not saying it will be streaming either though. I'm just saying that I don't see Blu-ray getting off the ground enough for Sony to see it in the PS4.

-Don

[NutMac]

Don, you are forgetting one thing. Sony is one of the most stubborn companies in home electronics industry. Even after 10 years of failed market adoption, Sony still insists on using and marketing MemoryStick format. Sony released a new SACD player in 9 years of failed market adoption. Although MiniDisc (introduced in 1991) enjoyed success in Japan, it was largely ignored by rest of the world -- but Sony is still making MiniDisc player to this date. And granddaddy of all, Betamax, reigned as Sony-exclusive format from 1975 to 2002.

[dd13reis]

That's actually a great point, NutMac. Sony is an extremely stubborn company and it doesn't want to admit when it's wrong. That may be its undoing if it includes Blu-ray in the PS4.

-Don

[Supercarpey]

Sony has created a superior product with Blu-ray. The Japanese believe that Blu-ray will prevail. You can't tell them they are wrong, I've tried. The culture dictates that if it is believed that a service or product will further technological advances, the goverment will support whole-heartedly. This is similar to the Japanese adoption of fiber-optic lines for data transmission. Their whole country is now set up with it. Yet the US is still using old wiring... I fully expect that the PS4 will have Blu-ray or some derivative thereof.

[dd13reis]

Do you really think it's that superior? On most TVs you won't even tell a difference. And look at BD-Live -- it's a joke!

Blu-ray needs mobility, cost effectiveness, more titles before it can even think of competing with DVDs. And time is running out on that front.

-Don

[kksing]

Supercarpey has a point...

End of the day, the rest of the world may think that Blu-ray is a crappy product with limited penetration of the market. However, as long as it does well in Japan (which it is likely to be), it will still feature in Sony's line-up, which will include the PS4.

What you guys seem to be forgetting is that there are very likely going to be total throughput caps. Comcast has already instituted a 250 GB cap - that's a very troublesome flaw in the idea that the internet media distribution would triumph over a disk. Also, you have to realize that the reason that the PS3 uses bluray is not only as a media player, but also because that's what the games are encoded as (because a DVD, even dual layer, will only get you 8.8GB, vs a bluray's 50GB). Also, the PS4 woudl have to have a bluray drive in order to read PS3 games. Also, Blu-Rays are currently nigh impossible to pirate (although I'm sure that will change as more people start using them). Those are a few major reasons why I think you might be wrong.... but only the future will tell.

-C

[dd13reis]

That's a very interesting thought and I'm glad you brought it up. Will Comcast and others put the kibosh on streaming and video itself?

Interesting thought to ponder. I think the big companies will get to them, but I guess you never know.

-Don

[Zoobie]

What the author forgets about is the large percentage of people that:
1-Can't afford high-speed Internet;
2-Don't have high-speed available. I live in a Phoenix suburb and can't get DSL at my house--Qwest hasn't wired my neighborhood and maybe never will. My options are dial-up (slow), satellite (expensive and slow), or Cox (faster, expensive, and horrible customer service with frequent outages)--it's not just rural America that isn't getting great high-speed options;
3-Just don't want the recurring monthly expense when what most people use the internet for is e-mail. I know that's hard to believe on a site of techie people, but a lot of people just aren't interested in blowing money on the latest gadget where there's no perceived benefit to existing options. That's why DVD isn't losing out to Blue-Ray--where's the value proposition in switching?
4-The infrastructure throughout the country just isn't prepared for all of us to start downloading movies and games all day long. Until Verizon, Cox, Comcast, Qwest, et. al start investing in their businesses, all the downloads are a pipe dream.

[dd13reis]

If those people can't afford all those things, they're not buying the PS3, let alone the PS4. I don't agree with that logic.

The infrastructure may not be prepared now, but it will be eventually. And we can't forget that I wasn't just saying downloads, I still think DVD will play a major role.

-Don

[kksing]

Sorry Don, if you think that in the next five years, the whole of US can be carpetted with high speed broadband such as FTTH, required for the type of services we are talking about, then you are giving guys like Comcast too much credit...

HOWEVER, when such services blanket other parts of the world (including the market Sony is most interested in; ie Japan), it could well be a good enough reason for Sony to make the PS4 to take advantage of high-speed internet streaming for distribution of games.

What I expect is that for markets without such broadband access, they might market an 'external drive' with the games itself on discs.

[oOo_Krav_oOo]

Don,
I'm not in the habit of trying to prove an author wrong, and you seem like a pretty good guy. But I have to assume you (and many responders on this page) live in a big city, or at least bigger than 200,000 and just have no idea how many of us smaller city people there are and are just out of touch with us. My wife and I, my siblings & their wives, my parents, are all exactly Zoobie's description in at least one of the numbers (1-4). I actually AM about to buy a PS3, but I actually can't afford decent internet. We currently use our Alltel Blackberry Pearl 8130s hooked up to our laptop for internet connection (and for free) because I'm not going to pay 50$ for my wife to check her email and download a Quicken file maybe once or twice a day. Yes, it's PAINFULLY slow, but it's $50 more for diapers & gas. PS3 and BDs on Netflix: affordable. My middle brother & wife live 5 miles further into the country, his only means of internet are satellite (which he decided against) and a Verizon dongle or card (can't remember which, but he has it). My youngest brother & wife live in my neighborhood and has Cox-monopoly high-speed but he really can't afford it as he has a baby on the way. And my parents (although in their 50s) wouldn't care about or know the different between VHS & BD. So that's 8 people right off the bat, and most the ppl I know here are in one of the same situations.

So while the techies who write and read this stuff live in a city with millions (and I have) there is such a different rate of technological growth between your 15 million and my 150K. So even though it takes 100 of my cities to equal yours, the point is, there ARE 100 of my cities to equal yours and the infrastructure & price competition currently sucks.

In five years, Cox here has moved from 4 to 10Mbps down, but that's what's advertised and you're lucky if you get 2/3 of that when traffic is light. Will it be another 5 years before they get to 15? So while I'm not disagreeing that BD will soon be on its way out as you made some really good points, HD streaming & downloading will not be mainstream for a very long time (in tech years that is), and by mainstream I mean Household common. Cities like mine will keep snail-mail Netflix (both DVD & BD) in business for at least the next 10-15 years.

And as moderately tech savvy as I am, I don't even know what electronics are needed to get an HD download to an HDTV without making the living room look like Circuit City by housing a computer somewhere near the TV. Plus, that sounds really expensive. Besides a HDTV, what kind of up-front cost are we talking about here?

[bugfreezer]

Darth Vader: ?Don?t be too proud of this technological terror you?ve constructed.?
Star Wars VI: A New Hope

Call me a Luddite, but trusting too much in broadband, even without caps, as a delivery mechanism is walking in denial. We outsource everything to the providers, and we trust that they will make sure we have access. BANG! Out goes the power. BAM! "We're sorry, but you don't have a license to view the content...Pay up!" And don't get me started on telephones!

Don't get me wrong, I love the technology, but I prefer to have a backup. And if worst comes to worst, I still have my Lord of the Rings books. So, Here's to BD and DVD!

[shinelikeitdoes]

Microsoft is offering a means to rip 360 games to your 360 hard drive and play disc-less soon. Step one of the next trend. I dont even see the argument in the future for blu-ray as media. Eventually we will all be downloading the latest titles directly to our consoles.

Real next gen consoles should have disc players as an optional accessory, for those who want the option to throw in an old dvd or blu-ray disc. But my bet is on storage and downloads/streaming.