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July 3, 2008 7:43 AM PDT

The Mac approaches 8 percent market share: Is it ready for popularity?

by Matt Asay
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In June, Apple's market share for Mac OS X hit 7.94 percent, according to Net Applications. At its current growth rate of 0.18 percent per month, this means that the Mac should claim 8 percent of the global desktop operating system market by the end of July. Linux, while still holding a tiny 0.8 percent share, is also rising.

The only major desktop OS to decline? Windows. In fact, as the Inquirer notes, while the Mac is up 32 percent, Windows XP actually declined a full percentage point while Vista scraped together a measly 2.56 percent. Overall? Windows was down 2.45 percent.

Mac sales are outpacing PC sales at 3.5 times faster rate. Two big questions are looming:

  1. At what point will the momentum accelerate even faster? In other words, what's the tipping point for Mac adoption?
  2. Is Apple set up to handle this success? Does it want it?

On that last note, imagine if everyone drove a BMW. BMW would love this, right? Well, maybe. The company tries hard to maintain a culture of semi-exclusivity. Ditto for Apple. Does this go away if everyone has a Mac? Is it cool to be that popular?

Also, what happens to Apple's much-vaunted security superiority? I happen to believe that architecture matters and that Apple's Unix-based OS will fare better than Windows had when targeted by malicious hackers, but there are reasons to be skeptical of OS X's mythical immunity to attack.

What about Apple's support? While Apple support has historically scored well in customer satisfaction, will this change when its market share is at 20 percent instead of 5 percent, and it becomes that much harder to find qualified support personnel?

At any rate, as a Mac fan I'm ready for these "challenges" and look forward to them. Is Apple ready? At nearly 8 percent market share and rising, it needs to be.

Updated with the Inquirer information.

Matt Asay brings a decade of in-the-trenches open-source business and legal experience to The Open Road, with an emphasis on emerging open-source business strategies and opportunities. Matt is vice president of business development at Alfresco, a company that develops open-source software for content management. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure. You can follow Matt on Twitter @mjasay.
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by neolandes July 3, 2008 6:26 AM PDT
i don't think that the global market share will grow much, most people aren't willing to pay 30%-50% more for a crippled pc.
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by billwg July 3, 2008 7:55 AM PDT
Apple has a lot of sizzle carrying over from its iPod. Computers aren't computers anymore, they are mass market appliances that people want to individualize. Look at Dell's featuring the many colors for laptops. That's more important to many users than how much RAM is installed.
by Penguinisto July 3, 2008 4:29 PM PDT
Err, they already do - they're the ones labelled "Vista Capable". ;)
by seo2seo July 3, 2008 7:51 AM PDT
If I recall, macs once held about 10%, didn't they?

The current boost is on the back of the fashion fads ipod and iphone; not the overpriced system that is certainly better than windows in some ways, but not in every way.

Once more than 8% of hackers take a look, it will crumble in seconds.

Linux is probably the future, but most of us can't wait until 3008!
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by billwg July 3, 2008 7:53 AM PDT
What is the "3.5 faster rate" supposed to mean? The link doesn't say. If Windows has 90+% share and Apple has 8%, it would seem that Windows is shipping at a rate more than 11 times that of Apple. What gives?
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by Vegaman_Dan July 3, 2008 10:17 AM PDT
Digging into the links and sources for the quote, it is in reference to a growth of 3.5x over previous quarters of Macintosh sales and does not have any relationship to PC sales at all.
by techsas July 3, 2008 7:57 AM PDT
You sound like a backyard mechanic always working on a crap car...adding to it when your small paycheck arrives and sipping a cut rate beer. There is nothing crippled about macs...the only thing crippled is your logic skaterboy.
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by compudoc318 July 3, 2008 8:10 AM PDT
Although I will agree that macs arent crippled.....but why would they push the fact that they can run windows on a mac???????????? Duh, its to make up for all the software and other programs you cant run on a mac. Not a bad computer, but apple needs to get off the high horse and lower mac prices or allow other clones so that the competition will lower prices, and i own both a mac and a pc.
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by ishamayana July 3, 2008 8:24 AM PDT
I agree Mac needs to get off its high horse and lower prices. I have been a Mac supporter that has sold many Macs for the company with no commission. I have led countless people to switch. However, I am still running an ancient G4 because I cannot afford a new Mac. Until they drop prices they will never be mainstream.
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by Penguinisto July 3, 2008 4:30 PM PDT
Well, considering that you'd be very hard-pressed to find an equivalent PC spec-for-spec against any Mac variant being sold today...
by Elidine July 3, 2008 8:28 AM PDT
I have never, and will never, subscribe to that which is Apple/Mac. The Apple/Mac fad is similar to that which is StarBux. As we all saw, Starsucks is closing 600 stores due to over priced crappy coffee and an overly saturated market. I only hope the Mac stores also follow suit and also close down.

The only reason I would ever own any Apple/Mac products is if someone gave them to me for free. Even then, I would probably destroy them, as donating them to charity would be cruel to the recipient.
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by Kwasiowusu July 3, 2008 8:42 AM PDT
What is the Apple Mac's market share in China(the world's second biggest personal computer market, and soon to be the world's largest personal computer market), again? The Mac's market share in china is less than 1% making the Mac's worldwide market share at less than 3%. For every market share gain that the mac makes in America, the Mac takes 2 staeps back by losing market share in huge, fast growing Chinese market, even as Windows continues to dominate Chinese desk tops, helped no doubt by the high piracy rate for windos in China.
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by Vegaman_Dan July 3, 2008 10:20 AM PDT
Give it some time for Mac clones to come out in China. Apple has no ability to stop piracy there or counterfeits. Psystar has already paved the way.
by Penguinisto July 3, 2008 4:31 PM PDT
I suspect that Linux dominates over Macs in China, and I can't wait until MSFT gets serious about anti-piracy there... the Windows marketshare will drop like a rock.
by Elidine July 3, 2008 9:36 AM PDT
But seriously, who cares about china?
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by Vegaman_Dan July 3, 2008 10:16 AM PDT
REALITY CHECK: "Mac sales are outpacing PC sales at 3.5 times faster rate. " This is a misleading figure. Go to the source and it comes from an Apple exec. " Apple's senior VP of worldwide product marketing Philip Schiller noted that Mac sales have been growing at a rate 3-1/2 times faster than PC sales." That means sales are 3.5 times increased over prior *MACINTOSH* sales. That's not related to PC sales at all, but to growth only. It's good that their sales are increasing, but attempting to make it sound like Apple sold 3.5x more PC's than the total PC global market is just plain silly. If this was Microsoft making this absurd claim, we'd see all sorts crying "FUD!" CNET: Please do the research fully before quoting such information- you got duped by Apple's marketing hype.
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by Penguinisto July 3, 2008 4:33 PM PDT
Dan? you're mis-reading the quote. If Apple is growing at 3.5 times faster than PC's are, then it stands to reason that it still means that Mac growth is 350% of PC growth.
by nathan1984 April 19, 2009 10:18 PM PDT
Honestly, mac's lack of overall popularity is the reason no one has really smashed it with the amount of viruses available to windows! I don't think they want it to get that popular for that reason. And mac users always talk about how they are the counter-culture, I've read that MANY places and honestly I say that the linux community is the REAL counter-culture and they are doing a bangup job at it! Just look at Ubuntu: Only ONE thing needed to really get going and that is a Codec pack and they are off to the races! and It is free! no spending 2500 to get me that mac, I'll spend 300 at walmart and load ubuntu up on the machine and have me a x64 system running GREAT! No need to update my hardware every 3 years to stay usable! I prefer windows because of the amount of software available to it for FREE but mac you got to learn, not everyone is STILL in collage and not everyone wants to pay $1.29 for a damn song and not everyone needs to create music videos and be a wannabe musician! Talk about the counter-culture
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About The Open Road

Matt Asay brings a decade of in-the-trenches open-source business and legal experience to the Open Road, with an emphasis on emerging open-source business strategies and opportunities. Matt is general manager of the Americas division and vice president of business development at Alfresco, a company that develops open-source software for content management. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.

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