Who will bury Google and Microsoft? We probably don't know...yet

Larry Dignan asks a potent question: Which startup will topple the giants of today, Microsoft and Google?

As I've written, I believe Google will cut Microsoft off from its future, leaving it to dwindle into its past. It will take some time (Microsoft has more cash than the US federal government), but Microsoft's every effort to become relevant in tomorrow's most important markets have met with resistance and, ultimately, futility. Google is the death of Microsoft on the web.

But what about Google? I had suggested that mobile may be the answer, but in reality I suspect Google has several more years of dominance. We won't know who will challenge it until it's at the very height of its hubris, just as with Microsoft. It's when we're strongest that the cracks start to show.

Larry is rightly digging around for the source of Google's downfall, but I think it's a pointless errand at this point. We'll yet see Google extend its dominance in search to another adjacent market, just as Microsoft did with Office. It's when Google will have seemingly wrapped up the web forever that another startup will be born to topple it, with Google's insistence on doing things the way it always has sowing the seeds of dissatisfaction that will power this new startup.

My own bet? Instead of search, the next big winner will be the one that focuses on "found." Google is all about someone proactively going out to look for what they want, and often finding it. But I think the real future is a product that lets us dictate what we want, and then passively sit back while interest flocks to us. Think RSS. Then extend the idea to commerce.

[SebDavies]

Hmmm I think Apple will go before Microsoft, but thats just my little opinion. And hopefully google has its day soon. Yahoo and Microsoft do things so much better than google. Great post!

[NS Podcaster]

I must disagree strongly. First of all, look at the latest OS's. Apple is definitely more innovative than Microsoft in a market that demands that. I would love to see Google play as a big player. Microhoo is a scary thought to me.

[livewireinc]

Apple before Microsoft? Microsoft?s dependance upon a competition-free, monopolized market has lulled it to sleep while its customers have suffered under a rash of malware and viruses as Microsoft has raised the price of Windows. Only after its customers grew angry about their security-related damages and started looking at alternatives did the company take any action.

Microsoft?s initial reaction was to work hard to improve Vista?s external security. The problem is that Windows? malware problems aren?t solely related to the platform?s security flaws; Microsoft itself has pursued a corporate strategy of developing and bundling adware, spyware, license policing, and other objectionable tactics that in effect punish customers for not leaving. It?s therefore no wonder why people are switching whenever they can. As the barriers to switching are removed, that migration will only speed up.

Imagine if Apple had simply plowed more money into shipping Copland in 1997: it might never have recognized the importance of digging out of its legacy trap and starting over with new technology. That?s exactly the problem Microsoft is now deeply invested in with Vista. The company lacks any opportunity to a pursue an alternative backup plan and is now wedded to a boondoggle for the next several years. It doesn?t help that the company is only making things worse by pursuing adware, spyware, and DRM activation measures that irritate users.

Windows 7 would have a tough struggle if it were ready for release today. Microsoft?s credibility in terms of shipping a functional, salable operating system is in the toilet. But the successor to Vista won?t ship for another three years, a very long time in the tech industry. Three years ago, Apple was selling Power PC computers, the iPod looked like it was running out of steam, and the company had only half as many retail stores as the present. Three years from now, it appears Apple will be sitting on a massive installed base of mobile WiFi iPods and iPhones and a retail presence that is more than 150% larger than today. Additionally, Linux will also experience three years of advancement.

Ironically, the more Microsoft changes Windows to make it competitive against Mac OS X, Linux, and other alternatives, the less attractive Windows will be to the core Windows Enthusiast crowd that wants to bask in backwards compatibility. That?s the precise problem Apple faced in migrating classic Mac OS users toward Copland or Pink: its customers wanted a better old product, not an entirely new one.

Apple could later excise its legacy cruft in the move to Mac OS X because at that point, active developers had only minimal investment in old technologies and NeXT offered a ready infusion of compelling new development tools. Microsoft must string along support for old Win32 applications and proprietary, security challenged features built into products such as Internet Explorer; if it doesn?t, it can?t offer any advantages over the cheaper alternatives that already exist.

Apple is growing and makes money off of every project it does. Microsoft loses money on xbox, xbox 360, zune, vista and it took a huge loss on MSN this last year. Apple will not go anywhere. Its growing and as of 1st Q 2008 holds 65% of the retail market. Thats up from less then 20% just 2 years ago.

[CharlesRovira]

I agree with the post. (Watch this space for further battles of "Choice vs. Resignation. :-)

The only way that Google will die is when they aren't able (or possibly willing) to respond to a change demanded by people who "aren't" their customers. (The "Innovator's Dilemma")

That said, Apple will die when they make the same mistake.

The enemy of "Good Enough" may be "Perfect", and vice-versa, but the enemy of both is "From Out Of Left Field..."

Being a Futurologist is a mugs game.

"The Best Way To Predict The Future Is To Invent It" -Alan Kay

[The_Decider]

I think Google will be around for a very long time, which IMO is not a good thing. We don't need a massive company around that thinks it owns and controls everything and everyone. Where MS went wrong is that they got huge and slow, while trapping themselves in a rather confining box. That is the reason for their decline into irrelevancy.

If Google can stay agile and constantly question their direction, they won't face the future Microsoft has so deservedly earned.

[chad633]

Nobody is gonna bury Microsoft. Bottom line is this, Microsoft has been around for almost 25 years and they have more money than anyone else in the game. They have a very strong hold on the OS market. In Addition to the most popular business products, such as; office and Microsoft server. They aren't going to get buried. Their recent attempts to purchase Yahoo further shows that although they may only have about 16% of the search business, they are trying very hard to make their internet presence larger. Microsoft is going to continue to see growth in the future. Sorry, but Microsoft isn't going to be buried by Google, Apple or anyone else. We are fast approaching a new dot com explosion similar to the late 90's and Microsoft and Google will surely be battling it out. The company that is willing to accept change, adapt to it and provide the consumer with quality products is the one that is going to be the leader.

[The_Decider]

Google and Apple has already buried Microsoft. For proof, everything MS does is either in reaction to their moves, or a blatant copy.

Microsoft hasn't put anything of value out in years. They are irrelevant and no matter how much cash they have they can't buy that back. MS was never much of an innovator, and with nearly every product that they have released being merely a poorly implemented 'me-too' product, their future is one of increasing irrelevancy and decline.

[Vampyre2.0]

Open source will take Microsoft down in the os market :D hey i like Xp but linux is winning and its not half bad ;)

[JCPayne]

Yes M$ has lots of money... But they also blow lots of money on money losing ventures. WebTV/MSN TV2
The Microsoft Network (prior to MSN.)
NetMeeting
Vista
The Zune
...

[kannuc]

Open source is the future; just junked an older version of MS Office (their biggest money maker) for Open Office. Cost difference? Lots! Several hundreds of dollars. Next to go will be Internet Explorer and all its problems. Not quite on the topic, but just fired by land line telephone company for MajicJack . Twenty bucks a year instead of a hundred a month including long distance.

[JCPayne]

I saw the MagicJack commercial the other morning on TV on like Discovery Channel. It looked impressive.... Do they give you a dedicated phone number in your own Area Code? Or just one out in California?? Can you transfer your own Phone # to them? aka Port your number?

[t8]

As long as Google play fair with other organisations then they will survive longer. As long as they are a positive force for the Web, then they will remain. As long as they don't abuse people like Microsoft has, then people wil choose them. If they become selfish like Microsoft, then it will only be a matter of time before they become irrelivant. So far Google is doing a great job.

[jolysmoke]

How about piling up info on people and their searches? Funny how that fits in with the Bush Administration's plans after 9-11 to produce six pages on each inhabitant of the world, their internet behaviour and interests included.

[Scott Gardener]

It was maybe five years ago when Google came out of nowhere. At the time, Yahoo! looked like it would be the company to own the 21st century. I was pretty convinced in those days that mp3.com would be the one to deliver the killing blow to the RIAA labels, when instead they died out completely, leaving a domain name for our own CNet to buy out and a bunch of independent bands like Trance [] Control and Abney Park to disappear back into the woodworks. I wouldn't count Microsoft among the dead; they're probably bigger now than they've ever been, and like a villain in Doctor Who, they've got a presence in maybe a third of households throughout the planet. The web means nothing if you can't get there, so be it computers, mobile phones, web refrigerators, or what not, Microsoft has plenty of ways to keep itself in power. Sure, over the long haul, it's possible that Microsoft may be an "I remember when" company the way Standard Oil or for that matter IBM is today, but putting Microsoft on any sort of death watch right now is about as absurd as anticipating the imminent defeat of China or the European Union as a superpower. Sure, eventually, when world unification happens in, say, 2093, but not tomorrow afternoon, while they're still on the rise.

[jolysmoke]

Yes, but MS has been scoring a series of "own goals" with Vista and insisting that all PC vendors scrap XP from June 30th. I know the corporate world tends to be costive and conservative, but having to cough up money for Vista with all the retraining costs and extra techies they will need to deal with all the problems and lost hours of work, is not going make them love MS. Many bosses will just allow people to install their own Mac and Linux machines in the office, and this trend will be contagious, bringing more and more workers to try Macs at home and then in the office. People will see that Open and Neo-Office work and they don't need to cough up all that money for MS Office. If MS are trying to bring out Windows 7 for 2011, that means they have abandoned Vista as a bad job, so the problems will be horrendous for businesses with it. MS is so slow it is doubtful they will really get W7 out before 2013 at the earliest, and, if it proves not to work properly, business's patience will be exhausted. For in a world where time is money, efficient computer software is the crucial factor. MS is the Juggernaut whose feet are built of clay.

[moeglittz]

I am currently working on a project that is along the same lines as you suggest, Matt.
I still believe that whilst Google has pretty much sewn up the current Search/ Sponsored Links Model of today, there is a huge potential for any Company out there that can develop a new and more innovative alternative to Google's current Search Model.

I only wish that I could find the right developers and investors to make my ideas into a proven business. But my ideas are also along the same ideas that the great Tim Berners-Lee is suggesting that will be big over the next decade - Linked Data.
Think Wikipedia + Google Maps + Netvibes + The Cloud = My Project?

[jackdaniels08]

That's like asking. Who will bury AT&T, or who will bury Exxon, or who will bury GE or Disney or Coca Cola or ?...like these companies Google will be around for along time and with Google's growth rate, vision, intelligence, innovation and growing and ever expanding market opportunities not only limited to online but also to Google's investment in future alternative energy (RE<C) , genetics, space data and technology, etc.

[jolysmoke]

Already in Europe the media are getting worried about the invasion of privacy constituted by Google's data-stocking on its users. If there was to be a search mechanism as competent as G's, but which guaranteed protection of the private sphere, then Google would lose out.

[jackdaniels08]

That's like asking. Who will bury AT&T, or who will bury Exxon, or who will bury GE or Disney or Coca Cola or ?...like these companies Google will be around for along time and with Google's growth rate, vision, intelligence, innovation and growing and ever expanding market opportunities not only limited to online but also to Google's investment in future alternative energy (RE<C) , genetics, space data and technology, etc.

[The_Decider]

No it isn't. You think that those companies are immortal and they are not. Many companies more powerful then they are have fallen. If we ever get a Congress that Disney can't bribe they are done. Extending copyright in ridiculous amounts is the only thing keeping this idea-less company afloat. Coca-cola will quickly decline if there secret recipe gets discovered, their dependence on trade secrets instead of copyrighting the recipe will spell doom for them if it gets out, with no legal recourse other than going after the person who stole it, if any one did. If someone reverse engineers it and starts selling it for half the price, they can do nothing about it. They don't seem so strong now, do they? Companies like Exxon are dependent on a finite resource, so their days are numbered. The point is that no company is immortal and it usually doesn't take much to bring one down. Microsoft's bloat and incompetence has already sealed its fate, Google's greed and lust for controlling all data will be their downfall.

[merynstol]

"Instead of search, the next big winner will be the one that focuses on "found." Google"

You should take a serious look at Friendfeed. They could be it.

[djc8080]

Buried in the obsessive conversations and advice for MicroHoo, Mr. O'Reilly points out a gem. The Internet is a platform for collective innovations. Many killer apps will emerge. Let's not just focus on search.

Search, Internet, and Innovation

[ian.waring]

The news is that the threat to Google is... Nokia.

See: http://www.catkeynes.com/CS00013.html

Ian W.

[ubalin2]

What a pity of Billgates, he'll be buried by Google, Apple, the popular facebook and also the rising star....here is the <a href="http://www.ubalin-biz.890m.com">AdSense related articles</a>