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February 15, 2008 6:51 AM PST

Microsoft gives away 85 million PCs...on a subscription basis

by Matt Asay

I hadn't heard of Microsoft's Unlimited Potential program, but Microsoft is using it to seed the Russian and adjacent markets with subscription-based PCs that customers can use. It's a clever way for Microsoft to seed developing markets with its Vista operating system, at a compelling price.

Microsoft paints the Unlimited Potential program as part of Bill Gates' "creative capitalism" policy whereby developing nations can benefit from advanced technology without paying out their entire GDP to get it. As suggested above, however, the program also offers Microsoft a way to club Linux's growth in these markets:

Analysts and observers have suggested another reason why Microsoft is interested in working with emerging markets on technology efforts: the fight against Linux, which is proving a less expensive and easier-to-access option for people in countries with scant access to technology. Indeed, Unlimited Potential and creative capitalism combine both altruism and business interests, and Microsoft executives have acknowledged the need to foster education and business development to get software like Windows and Office in the hands of people who wouldn't typically be able to afford it.

I think it's great to see Microsoft playing long-term hardball in this way. This is a way for the company to combat the allure of free (or very inexpensive) Linux-based PCs without giving up on its standard business model. I've stated repeatedly that Microsoft would do well to transition from that business model over time as more and more of the world competes with it on a services-based model, but this is a great short-term hedge against Linux.

Much more interesting to me is how the Linux world will respond. Free is still better than not-so-free paid out on a monthly subscription. Which of the Linux desktop vendors will step up to the challenge?

Matt Asay brings a decade of in-the-trenches open-source business and legal experience to The Open Road, with an emphasis on emerging open-source business strategies and opportunities. Matt is vice president of business development at Alfresco, a company that develops open-source software for content management. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure. You can follow Matt on Twitter @mjasay.
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by Arnav February 15, 2008 7:37 AM PST
I am from a third world country although admittedly a lot better off than the average man. Microsoft's problem in third world countries is not Linux or MacOSX or any other rival OS's its Microsoft's own operating systems which are pirated. I can honestly tell you that at least 70% of OS installs in a third world country like India are pirated copies of Windows. Admittedly not all of these will ever translate into sales but Windows is still the most popular OS.

Also, it will remain the most popular OS because again the majority of computers sold arent Dells or HP but custom build from parts and for computers such as those the driver support is the best (by a far margin) for Windows.

Microsoft and Adobe are the biggest losers to piracy although Microsoft is more harder hit because their product is essential to a system and people use the pirated stuff are lost customers whereas people who use pirated Adobe products arent necessarily lost customers since I doubt the people who use them dont actually need the product.
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by jose_L_Gomez February 15, 2008 9:43 AM PST
Mr Arnav, none multibillionaire corporation or individual could ever have any type of problems in his world or in your world, the problem is for the average man from your world who neither can afford a PC nor an OS.
Software Corporations like the one you mentioned before have to take new approaches to compete with a new form or way of technology exchange like the new open source software revolution.
Fortunately, for the average men, not like you, a new door is opening for
knowledge, information and good wisdom to make 1 and a new world.


as
by GaraSys February 15, 2008 7:49 AM PST
Good point, Arnav. However, their fight against piracy may actually drive more users towards Linux. If someone can't get a free copy of Windows, then is the next best choice a paid copy or Linux. More and more it's becoming Linux. Microsoft needs to face the inevitable. As Linux and other open source continue to evolve, old-world commercial software licenses will become more obsolete.

Microsoft can continue to try and "club Linux's growth", but that's going to be like the U.S. Postal Service thwarting the growth of email. Once people realize that sending email works as well as sending a letter they stop buying stamps.

People want to be free and so does software. Educating the market on open source is the key. Viva la FLOSS!!

Gary
http://www.gara.com/
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by Arrgster February 15, 2008 8:27 AM PST
The real question is do theses PC's come with office? Office is MS's big money maker so on the one hand they would want to make sure third world gets hooked on it. On the other had you don't want to give away your only big money maker.

Problem is Office is still more than most people make in a year, truth is I can hardly afford it. So I don't see someone with little money going out and buying Office when they can download open office for nothing. The other struggle is if ODF takes off in these places it will eventually start bleeding back to the richer countries.
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by Melekai February 15, 2008 2:04 PM PST
Sounds like a drug "pusher" from the 70's, get them hooked and then you own them.
by wango2007 February 15, 2008 9:50 AM PST
by GaraSys
More and more it's becoming Linux. Microsoft needs to face the inevitable. As Linux and other open source continue to evolve, old-world commercial software licenses will become more obsolete.
------------------------------------

I admire this kind of bravdo. Saying "Microsoft needs to face the inevitable" reminds me of that picture of a mouse giving the finger to the eagle just before the the eagle swoops down and eats him. Microsoft is that eagle.

Linux has a tiny market share which has not grown much in recent years.Utimately, whether they steal it or buy it, people are drawn to the "gold standard" and that is Microsoft.

Superior technology ALWAYS wins in the marketplace. You can tell superior technology when you see it because people buy it (or at least want to steal it). This holds true with products like Linux. It may have a determined cult following, but it could have already become the market leader if anyone though it was any good.
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by protagonistic February 15, 2008 10:02 AM PST
"Superior technology ALWAYS wins in the marketplace."

Thanks, I needed a good laugh this morning and you supplied it. The technology market is littered with superior technology that lost out. The first one that comes to mind is the Beta vs VHS format war. Beta was by far the superior technology. Firewire and SCSI are another good example. Both are far superior to IDE and USB and both lost out. And a general category is mp3 players. There were many that were tecnologically superior to the iPod but we all know how that one turned out.

Superior technology only whens when it is cheaper. Price will almost always trump superior technology.
by rcrusoe February 15, 2008 10:21 AM PST
"Superior technology ALWAYS wins in the marketplace." Which explains why MS has been reduced to giving away millions of Vista computers?

Businesses haven't been buying Vista so far, and there is no sign that they will in the future.

OTOH, "Mac shipments grew 37.2 percent year-over-year -- more than twice as fast as any other manufacturer ranked in Gartner's top 5 PC vendors for the three-month period ending September -- helping it snag a spot as the No. 3 U.S. PC vendor overall. " and Linux on the desktop continues to snag more market share.
by rleon February 15, 2008 10:06 AM PST
Superior Technology as in bugs, viruses and BSOD?
Wow! No doubt there are lots of people who are easy to impress with "eyescandy"
I would said Windows will last long before it dies, but not because it is the best.
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by Simplicius February 15, 2008 10:11 AM PST
@wango2007
"Linux has a tiny market share which has not grown much in recent years."

You are dead wrong. Linux has about doubled in the last year. Still not widely employed on desktops, but it's the *trend* that Microsoft is worried about.

"Superior technology ALWAYS wins in the marketplace."

Maybe, but it takes some time to overtake an inferior but already established technology. The game ain't over yet.

"You can tell superior technology when you see it because people buy it"

You are dead wrong again. Ever heard of marketing, changing fashions, etc.? These may all get an inferior product to sell better than a superior technology. And what about price? You don't even mention that price has a huge impact on whether a product will be sold.

Your views aren't simply wrong, they also appear to be simplistic.
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by wango2007 February 15, 2008 10:30 AM PST
by Simplicius
Your views aren't simply wrong, they also appear to be simplistic.

-----------------------------------

Nonsense! My take is not from being particulary smart, but by being old. At the dawn of the desktop computer age, there were hundreds (if not more) competing OSs. Lots of people were betting on CP/M back then, but they lost to PC/MS DOS.

Xerox had a great "Windows" interface which Apple "borrowed." If it was so good, why did it not become a massive seller? The reason is because it wasn't that good. Microsoft used the same technology from Xerox and now has a 94% market share because it performs in a way that meets people's needs.

These good things did not happen with DOS or Windows because the products were inferior. They happened because Microsoft created vauable products and sucess breeds success.

Unix/Linux and MAC OS have been around a long time now. If they were as good as the cultists say, they would have market dominence by now. Simplicius says, "Linux has about doubled in the last year..." What does that mean... that Linux has gone from a 1% to 2% desktop share (100% growth!!!)...? Rubbish. It took PC/MS DOS about 2 years to kill off CP/M. If Linux was any good it could have done the same with Microsoft.
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by wkia February 17, 2008 8:37 PM PST
I agree with you 100%.
Microsoft was designed to live.
Unix/Linux and Mac have been around since the dawn of this new tech-based age, Yet they have remained in the same position that they started in.

Unix/Linux and Mac OS were not, are not, and will never be better than Windows, simply because Windows will always be designed with the intext to support everything. Linux and Mac just can't compete with that factor.
by drhowarddrfine February 15, 2008 12:23 PM PST
The article mentioned "services" Linux and others can provide to compete against Windows. Those services are all part of the Web2.0 idea as well as what Google is founded upon. The desktop OS won't make as much difference to non-gamers.

Google, and others, supply the free web apps so the OS doesn't matter. Linux is free. Windows is not. Why would you need to pay for Windows? That's the future.
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by Matt Asay February 15, 2008 1:49 PM PST
Funny bit of news. I just found out that my uncle is the one who negotiated this deal with MTS in Russia. So now we truly fight on opposite sides of this battle. :-)
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by GaraSys February 15, 2008 2:56 PM PST
That is funny.
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About The Open Road

Matt Asay brings a decade of in-the-trenches open-source business and legal experience to the Open Road, with an emphasis on emerging open-source business strategies and opportunities. Matt is general manager of the Americas division and vice president of business development at Alfresco, a company that develops open-source software for content management. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.

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