Two questions on the future of open source

I had two conversations today that set me to pondering the future of open source. One was during a panel I moderated on "cloud-based computing" at the Webguild Web 2.0 Conference. The second was over lunch with an old friend.

First, what happens to the open-source development community if the world moves to cloud-based computing? Open source has been a server or PC-based phenomenon. Why did Linus Torvalds develop for an x86 architecture? Because that's what he had. He didn't have a massive server farm to work with. Neither do you.

Think about it. What software could you or I write in a world where there are only a few "computers" (five, according to Yahoo), computers to which you and I don't have access? I suppose developers will increasingly be able to write code for others' "clouds," but will this be the same?

Or will open source be something that Google et al give away when it suits them, and only when it won't help their competitors? (This would be much like what they do today, but today they aren't the focal point for open-source development.) The Web world has tended to be a net consumer of open source, not a net producer of it. Will this change when its open-source raw materials run dry?

Second, when is the last time you got excited about enterprise software? That market and its ideas are clearly dying. It's an old world that open source is successfully commodifying. But what comes next?

I've long believed that open source is a natural way to innovate, so I'm not worried that open source will have no future. I'm just wondering what it will look like if the enterprise moves into the cloud and traditional enterprise software dissipates.

Thoughts?

[chustar]

Based on your arguments, you are assuming that the cloud servers themselves are not open sourced. If you hippies have it your way, all software will be open source and that will make your argument moot.

[Matt Asay]

I've never been called a hippie. Let me think about that one for awhile to see if it fits. I bathe quite often but you never know....

[leonnyan]

Always enjoy your blog, thank you.

I thought this post was interesting. I've always thought that there was a limit to the current open-source development model due purely to the increasing level of complexity and investment to create many of the newer features/implement technologies and a mass of individuals willingness to contribute sans some sort of compensation to justify the time. I see continued investment in open-source via larger corporations (let's use IBM as a single example, not exclusive) as they have the ability to monetize the investment effort they apply. Personally, I am not clear how much individual contributor efforts we would see going forward. (did this make sense?)

Regarding cloud computing, very interesting. Is there an inherit assumption that we would never see a communal or open-source could?

Cheers. Leon

[theopensourcerer]

Two things spring to my mind...

1. To avail oneself of the facilities of a "cloud" you still need devices and physical things to deal with the results of your computing activities. There's more innovation potential in the "output" device side than in the engine itself.

2. We have been down this road before (remember IBM? The world will only need 4 or 5 computers) and it didn't work. I am still reticent about leaving my digital "stuff" somewhere else. There are many like me. Seeing how our wonderful government here in the UK manages to look after my data, I don't want to give up the ownership and responsibility of my own data. In fact I'd prefer if there was much less of "my stuff" on other peoples networks.

Good question Matt.

Thanks for a good blog.

http://www.theopensourcerer.com

[botchagalupe]

Do I smell an old "I am going to loose my job to computers" story here? Thirty plus years and it hasn't happened yet.

johnmwillis.com

[bsalus01]

the personal computer isn't going anywhere. the cloud will be a data cloud, not a mainframe terminal scenario. and the your data that is part of the cloud will be a subset of the data that is stored on your computer. and the data that you create in the cloud will probably be able to be synchronized with your PC.

and the cloud will only be for personal data. business won't use an external cloud, except for maybe small businesses. businesses may use an internal cloud though, in which case enterprise software will just morph the way it handles data, not disappear.

in the next 5-10 years i see phones becoming desktop replacements (google android anyone?). you just dock your phone and use your external mouse, keyboard and monitor and probably have an external hard drive too. so i see PCs shrinking not becoming terminals.

[botchagalupe]

fyi...

http://technon.blogspot.com/2008/01/two-questions-on-future-of-open-source.html

[timoreilly]

Matt --

This line of thinking is exactly what led me from talking about open source to talking about Web 2.0. See my essay "The Open Source Paradigm Shift" or even my 1999 debate with Richard Stallman in 1999 (see http://tim.oreilly.com/opensource for links to both. Hey, it was even the subject of the conversation, if you can call it that, that I had with Eben Moglen at Oscon this past year. Of course, then you were giving him attaboys for taking me to the woodshed for suggesting this idea.

Glad to see you're now on board.

[MyRightEye]

And then there's OpenSourceTrack.com

[john.mark]

Have you read Nick Carr's the Big Switch? It's all about the future of cloud computing, except his emphasis is on societal impact. I just interviewed him for a podcast I have in the can. I hope to have it out soon!!!

-John Mark

[billxa]

Interesting question Matt. I have to believe that at least some cloud providers will provide ways for the OSS community to deploy software into the cloud, not just at the application level but also at the operating infrastructures level, allowing the community to innovate the way the cloud operates to meet their varied and changing needs. If some cloud providers take a closed and proprietary approach, that will create opportunity for others to enter (and disrupt) the market with an open approach. Open innovation is an insidious thing. If there are sufficient incentives, it will find a way to enter and disrupt any big proprietary-dominated market; because it fills the needs of those pushing the envelope, drives innovation, and creates a seam for new entrants to break into otherwise closed markets. The "five" cloud providers will take the closed and proprietary road at their peril. It may work for a while, but open competitors will emerge. What are the proprietary UNIX vendors doing today? If the compute cloud market gets big and all the providers are closed and proprietary, I am sure someone will see the opportunity to create an open alternative. Heck, I might even start one. Being a market disruptor is a lot of fun - and has been financially rewarding too. Want in? Bill Miller, xaware.org

[ShaunRConnolly]

Hi Matt,

My 12 year old son provides an interesting perspective the future of open source:
http://connollyshaun.blogspot.com/2008/01/future-of-open-source.html

He spends his time developing his online Roblox community using the open source Lua scripting language.

Are they grooming our next-gen OSS developers?

- Shaun