The path forward for Linux is child's play

Linux has been growing in importance for years in the darkened server closets. In the server world, Linux's cost and performance benefits have trumped its early weaknesses (Ease of use, etc.), making Linux the heir apparent to the Unix throne.

But that's the server, where geeks write software for other geeks. In the consumer world of personal computers and mobile devices, however, Linux hasn't fared particularly well precisely because the developers of Linux differ so markedly from the vast majority of the user population.

Linux developers, in other words, scratch very different "itches" from those plaguing most would-be Linux users.

It seems clear to me that, as Bill Weinberg astutely argues, the way forward for Linux is not in replicating Microsoft's desktop dominance, but rather in forging a new, consumer-friendly mobile Linux experience, one focused on the youth that are growing up mobile.

This "way" is being paved by Intel, Canonical, Novell, and other companies that have significant experience writing software for normal users, and not merely the alpha geeks of Linux. I've spent the past two weeks fiddling with different variants of Linux-based Netbooks, in particular the Linux Foundation's Moblin Beta 2 (Developed by Intel and Novell) and Canonical's Ubuntu 9.04 Remix for Netbooks, and I believe they are onto something.

The first thing that struck me when using Moblin is how it breaks new ground in defining a new personal computer experience, one designed for the narrow (hardware) confines of a Netbook but offering a limitless portal to social networking and a broad Web experience beyond.

This is perhaps why Acer has committed to Moblin in a big way, and why Canonical is joining up with Moblin, as are others.

As for Ubuntu, it's an even tighter user experience (though, to be fair to Moblin, it's still in beta and so many of its rough edges will be smoothed over by general release, I assume). This isn't surprising given Ubuntu's singular focus on usability. It doesn't require any specialized knowledge of Linux though it does give the user too much information on what's happening under the hood. The lay user simply doesn't care. We just want it to work.

The experience hasn't been without its difficulties. My experience with Ubuntu, for example, was plagued by constant nagging to install yet another package to be able to play proprietary codecs. Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols suggests that this problem is going away, but it can't leave fast enough. It's asking way too much to expect consumers to have to work in order to watch a YouTube video.

We are users, after all, not developers.

Slowly but surely, however, vendors are getting the Linux experience "right" for Netbooks and other mobile devices. I've been leaving my Intel-loaned Acer Aspire One Netbook around where my kids, ages four through 12, will open it up and experiment. Each one has quickly managed to find the games in Moblin and Ubuntu, and my older children were quickly browsing the Web and even typing up school reports. In minutes. With no coaching.

To me, this suggests the path forward for Linux is in new, as yet underdeveloped markets like mobile, and for an as yet under-monopolized audience: youth. My kids have grown up with Macs, but they're hardly grown up yet. Their experience with computers has been as much about mobile phones as laptops.

They are the most mobile-inclined generation the world has yet seen, making them an ideal target for new Linux-based mobile devices. As the Bible notes in Proverbs 22:6:

Train up a child in the way he should go: and when he is old, he will not depart from it.

Children's conceptions of what a computer must look like and feel like have yet to calcify into a Windows mold. They are the audience to win for those vendors interested in dominating the next decade of personal computing.

Old dogs strain to learn new tricks, making the Microsoft-conceived desktop a poor target for Linux vendors. The market is mobile. The market is children.

Follow me on Twitter @mjasay.

[forever4now]

The recent announcement that Moblin will be able to run Android apps is another interesting piece of news. This combination would allow vendors to offer a range of products, from power/size constrained Android-only devices, all the way to full Moblin/Android desktops. Cool!

[mediocrates--2008]

While I hope you're right, Matt, this reminds me of the "Apples for the Students" program back in the '80s, which had such a non-impact on Apple's market share.

[Matt Asay]

I don't so much mean school programs as I do general mobile devices that Linux infiltrates without anyone really knowing/caring. Think TiVo....

[FutureGuy]

@Matt Asay, So you are saying that Linux has pretty much lost the battle for the desktop and its best hope is to get some share in the crowded mobile market with is currently dominated by Apple and BB with every sign of MS getting in as a major player. If this is "child's play" I am it must be some advanced alien child you are referring to.

[odubtaig]

"Nokia remains the world's No. 1 smartphone maker, followed by Research In Motion and Apple."
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-10245339-37.html

I think we'll start with you not knowing that Nokia, with it's Linux based tablets, Qt GUI toolkit and open source SymbianOS, sell more smartphones than RIM (no, they're not called BlackBerry, that's the phone, not the company) and Apple COMBINED and leave it with a 'what the **** would you know?'

It's always the most clueless idiots who are the most smug and patronising, isn't it.

[Matt Asay]

I've been saying since 2000 that the Linux desktop is a non-starter, because it's trying to solve an old problem in an old way. Linux needs to focus on the future, and the future is mobile. There's no reason it can't compete well in this new market, which is not yet settled on One True Way to compute. Microsoft, Apple, etc. will each be highly competitive here, but there's no reason Linux should give up this battle.

[tehrani625]

I think Matt is on to something here. When I was in grade school I had macs at school and I used my Dad's Win98 laptop at home, I later came to own that laptop and watch it die... Anyways, for my first three years in High School my school gave every student a macbook, that was interesting. I am now going into my senior year and I love my vista machine (word is always going to be one window for me). So if you get Linux machines in the hands of kids now, you will have a market for Linux desktops later, when those kids grow up and go to work. I also like my vista machine because it is the same price as a macbook but is much faster and likes to have fun.

[reya276]

so what was your point again? Was it that people should stick to vista or that mac books are somehow inferior or that Linux will be a no go? I'm just not sure what using Linux on mobile devices/Desktops or Mac books have to do with you using Vista(DRM infested).

[ArtInvent]

I would agree with this post, just omit the 'children' part. The mobile device experience, pure and simple, is where there is no OS monopoly; no set-in-stone market leader; no user experience hegemony; no entrenched platform specific apps. Most adults have no expectations of Windows on their phone.

Imagine netbooks seamless working with and handing off the users' presence to a mobile phone - then it will make sense to have both running the same OS. An Android phone that morphs seamlessly into an Android or Moblin-Ubuntu netbook - suddenly Linux makes more sense, and if the desktop is still relevant after that, well then the door is much more open.

Besides, you,le not going get to children without going through their parents.

[apsantos]

i agree, but there is already some linux distro (Vixta.org, Xange.org) that have all the plugin needed for easey NetBook experience.

[empirestatebuddy]

basically, the author of this article is saying, "Linux should target unsuspecting children. Get them hooked young... and they're yours for life."

true enough. and i don't have a problem with that (after all, it's tech not cigarettes), BUT...

can you imagine the outcry if Steve Ballmer had said, "Microsoft needs to target the children in their cribs"?

my point is... (as someone who's not a programmer)... a lot of Linux guys sound like "cultists"... and portray Microsoft as the anti-Christ. it's just a little creepy... in my opinion. :)

[reya276]

I agree to some extend, but the problem is that your not looking at most of the issues and the corruption Microsoft is directly involved or how it does certain things without any concern for the users privacy. Microsoft also tries to screwed consumers every small chance they get(take a look at file format lock-ins), but you an everyone else do not see this; because you don't put the time and effort to care. Most people see it as in "Oh is just business" but there are extreme ethical issues involved. If you have an inclination of what ethical standards are then you should know that Microsoft has NONE! So when you compare Linux users to a Cult you are 100% wrong. We are just taking the time to care about these issues which you don't(which is odd because you should value your freedom), so instead of bad mouthing US you should be thanking us because if it weren't for the Free Software Foundation and a host of other freedom advocates out there you and everyone else would be having ZERO rights when it comes to any kind of digital information and your valuable PC's. I would advice for you to start thinking outside the box. So creepy or not can you just imagine if people would have treated our founding fathers in the same way people treat Linux/Software Freedom advocates; The USA would be a very different place. So freedom is extremely important regardless of which type of freedom!

[rtddtr]

In marketing, targeting the youngest age is always preferable, because it works. (I don't necessarily agree with that tactic)
Secondly, Microsoft right now has 2 commercials on TV that could be suggested as being targeted to small children, you know the ones, with the 4 1/2 year old girl, and the other with the young boy, both commercials say I'm a PC and their age, and show how easy it is for someone their age to use that computer.

I see a lot of MS and guys that also sound like "cultists" and portray Linux as some sort of communist/socialist operating system. Both sides have their nut-heads.

[tktim]

You forgot to mention that Moblin is switching from Ubuntu to Fedora.

Why? because Fedora uses RPM (RPM Package Manager) along with Red Hat, Novell SUSE, CentOS, Mandriva, Linpus, Red Flag, PCLinuxOS, Scientific Linux, etc. RPM is the Linux Foundation's Linux Standard (LSB: Linux Standard Base) for package managers. RPM is used for installing, managing, removing, and upgrading packages (software,applications). The LSB /LF is supported by AMD, Dell Computer, Hewlett-Packard, Intel, IBM, Mandriva, Miracle Linux, Google, MontaVista, Oracle,Red Hat, Sun Microsystems, Novell,VA Software and others.

[stripe001]

It is interesting to note that Intel have recently partnered with the Linux foundation and one of their key goals is to bring down the boot up time for their mobile systems. That applies to both their embedded systems with no UI e.g. embedded automotive microcontrollers and also their consumer systems like Netbooks. So part of the improvement for user experience is also driven by embedded applications that use a similar version of the OS.