The quiet Ubuntu Netbook revolution
Revolutions don't always roil and boil toward a noisy, violent fracas. Sometimes they don't even ripple the surface.
Such is the Ubuntu Netbook revolution, which makes waves in the Linux community--and really nowhere else. Not publicly, at least.
I was fortunate to spend two hours on Tuesday night with Chris Kenyon, head of Canonical's Ubuntu business for original-equipment manufacturing, or OEM. Kenyon, in addition to being a fellow Arsenal fanatic, is also Ubuntu's point man for its quiet, but nonetheless dramatic, Netbook revolution.
Kenyon, who appeared a placid, affable chap when we first met outside Arsenal stadium to witness a shattering of Hull City's FA Cup hopes, eventually let his competitive side out during the match, cheering the team and jeering the referee. Brilliant. It was then that I got a taste for what Canonical's competitors, and particularly Microsoft, might be in for when competing with Ubuntu.
In the Netbook market, Ubuntu is the clear winner, with Hewlett-Packard, Dell, and the other major hardware OEMs shipping Ubuntu-based Netbooks. But it's not yet clear what "winner" means. Microsoft, after all, still apparently claims 90 percent of all Netbooks shipped with Windows.
Therein, however, lies the seed of Ubuntu's revolution. Ten percent market share for Linux is pretty incredible. We rightly cheer Apple for its steady onslaught of Microsoft in the personal-computing market, and that's as Apple struggles toward 10 percent market share. Linux is already there in Netbooks, and Ubuntu claims the bulk of those installations.
There are indications that this could accelerate. I won't comment on the royalties Canonical currently earns on its Netbooks, except to suggest that its competitive price point must be extraordinarily expensive...to Microsoft. Manufacturers continue to ship Windows XP and pay Microsoft virtually nothing for the privilege due to discounts, rebates, and other incentives. With Ubuntu exerting downward pricing pressure, Microsoft doesn't stand to gain much in the growing Netbook market.
Let's say Microsoft earns $8 per copy of Windows XP shipped, which might actually be high, at least with the larger OEMs. At that point, the price differential between shipping Ubuntu or Windows XP is slim. But once Microsoft eventually turns off the XP spigot and requires OEMs to ship Windows 7, will Microsoft be able to command a hefty premium on its brand alone?
I doubt it. Canonical has permanently reset the Netbook operating system price point in its favor, at a level where it can compete vigorously while Microsoft must compete reluctantly. Microsoft, in short, is now playing by Ubuntu's terms.
Now let's compound the problem for Microsoft. Taiwanese original-design manufacturers are actively deploying Ubuntu for their OEMs (HP, etc.). They are now gaining experience and expertise in testing and quality assurance for Ubuntu. The mechanics of shipping Linux, in other words, are beginning to be well-understood. This, coupled with consumers' growing comfort with Linux in the Netbook form factor, make it hard to justify the inertia of staying with Microsoft just because it's Microsoft.
Netbooks are disruptive, in part, because they define productivity in terms of the Web, not Microsoft Office. The more users want to spend time in a browser, or instant messaging, or e-mail, the less Microsoft Windows is required. The less Windows is a requirement, the less that OEMs are going to be willing to pay for Windows licenses. Microsoft suffers (indeed, it may already be suffering), OEMs gain (because they earn better margins on their Netbooks), and customers gain (all the functionality they need at an attractive price).
And, of course, Canonical gains. There's a revolution going on. It's quiet, but it's happening.
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Matt Asay brings a decade of in-the-trenches open-source business and legal experience to The Open Road, with an emphasis on emerging open-source business strategies and opportunities. Matt is vice president of business development at Alfresco, a company that develops open-source software for content management. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure. You can follow Matt on Twitter @mjasay. 
Linux is very real and very successful in quite a few markets, (Servers, Web, Data Center, Robots, Phones to name some). Some markets are harder for Linux than others, especially the desktop due to Microsoft's momentum and formats. If Linux can be successful in the Netbook market, then that is one foot in the door and it is just a matter of time before Linux spreads from there and takes more desktops in terms of percentage. If people start to see the benefits of Cloud Computing with a browser, then Windows becomes less relevant and Netbooks are showing the way.
I think NetBooks numbers can't be be trusted for now... I hear folks buying Linux NetBooks only to wipe it out and load XP on it (not sure how legal that is)... Same story the other way around (buy NetBook with Windows, then install Linux).
It's a new area, so let see one or two more years who's ahead in this line of products... But then again, by that time the line between laptops and netbooks would blur more, which may give Windows an artificial lift in terms of numbers.
Notice that the Liliputing article just repeats the same NPD Group data that others have cited for headline sensationalism. In the real world, every major OEM has jumped aboard the Linux bandwagon.
It was only in the latter half of 2008 that EVERY brand-name PC maker introduced Linux for mainstream products -- and EVERY one of those PC makers has continued to EXPAND their Linux lines to meet consumer demand. HP, the world's #1 PC maker, reported that it could hardly keep up with demand for the Linux edition of its Mini netbook.
The netbook market as a whole has grown, so Linux has lost nothing to Microsoft. Where Linux netbooks first sold in the hundreds of thousands, they now sell in the millions.
Intel rival ARM created the microprocessor chip that's the brain of Apple iPhone, as well as the Google Android which runs on Linux. ARM just announced a partnership with Ubuntu, to create Linux netbooks that operate for days on a single battery charge. The OLPC (One Laptop Per Child) Project is shifting away from x86 to ARM chips, for which desktop Windows isn't available. Google, a Linux advocate, also shows interest in the netbook market. Asus says it already has engineers working on an Android-based netbook design.
So, where is the doom and gloom for Linux?!
I'm sure ComputerWorld wouldn't report that figure if they think it's done for sensationalism. Even Matt doesn't seem to challenge that number.
Yes every OEM jumped into the NetBooks/Linux bandwagon... but are they really profitable in doing so? There are no hard numbers to support a Linux "surge" in the NetBooks arena -- just interviews and call with OEM -- for PR purposes, of course they will tell you that everything is all rosy and good.
Most of the things Matt enumerated in this article as evidence of an Ubuntu "revolution" are mostly theoretical. Yes, on paper, it might be "very, very" likely that there is such a silent revolution going on. But unless there are hard numbers to suggest it, for now, I don't see Ubuntu progress as "very, very" real.
Plus this one big flaw in the argument -- price is not the only strength of Windows. It's compatibility, it's applications, it's familiarity, it's intuitive UI.
Such arbitrary dismissals must presume every major PC maker to be a fool and/or liar, as they continue to EXPAND their investment in Linux product lines. Actions and expenditures speak louder than lip-service. Canonical, a.k.a Ubuntu, has spurted to employ hundreds and earn millions from OS engineering support contracts with the top OEMs.
This is the pudding proving itself. Of course, you aren't required to dine, nor even to sit at reality's table.
if there was a loss in demand for windows-exclusive apps on notebooks overnight (not going to happen this year), windows market share on notebooks would nosedive.
still waiting to see what adobe can do with air/flex, if they port their apps to that framework then things get really interesting. but its starting to look like thats a lost cause.
e.g. AIR is supposed to be able to convert a flash application into a fully functional desktop application, but how can you do that if it's still inside the sandbox -- can't run external applications, etc...
Microsoft's decades-old monopoly has made Windows-addicts out of 90% of desktop PC users. With so many consumers brainwashed to equate "PC" with "Windows", it's remarkable that Linux owns 30% of the booming netbook market. Global PC sales are now driven by netbooks, which have flatlined Windows revenue.
Soon it may be impossible to find any new brand-name PC that doesn't have Linux aboard, because every major OEM has committed to making "instant on" PCs, which give you nearly instant power-up access to the Web, voice over IP (VoIP) such as Skype, and multimedia applications. This is done by embedding Linux into the BIOS chip of PC motherboards, whether or not Windows might ever be installed on the hard-disk drive (HDD) or solid-state drive (SSD). An instant-on PC can quickly boot Linux from its BIOS chip, instead of booting whatever OS might be installed on the HDD/SSD.
http://expressgate.asus.com/
Here's another article showing fast decline of linux shipments from 100% (because first NetBooks where Linux based) to 10% in a one-year period:
http://www.liliputing.com/2009/03/linux-loses-more-netbook-market-share.html
By the way, I cannot log in to CNet with Firefox currently. Strange.
* cost advantage
* differentiation advantage
A competitive advantage exists when the firm is able to deliver the same benefits as competitors but at a lower cost (cost advantage), or deliver benefits that exceed those of competing products (differentiation advantage). Thus, a competitive advantage enables the firm to create superior value for its customers and superior profits for itself.
Cost and differentiation advantages are known as positional advantages since they describe the firm's position in the industry as a leader in either cost or differentiation.
Open Source is the cost leader, and Apple is the leader in differentiation.
What will happen if Apple launches a netbook for, say, $400? (Twice the price of a basic, $200 netbook)
In that scenario we would see $200 Linux netbooks competing with $300 Windows 7 netbooks and $400 Apple netbooks.
In such scenario, the market share could be easily divided in 20-60-20 or even 30-40-30. Being in the middle is the worst strategic position, because you are attacked by all sides.
http://www.quickmba.com/strategy/competitive-advantage/
What do you expect them to do tell them to sell more Linux netbooks?
Companies sell what people demand you can't just "force" someone to buy a product.
Asus CEO Jerry Shen said, "I think the return rate for the Eee PCs are low, and I believe the Linux and Windows have similar return rates"...
http://tinyurl.com/69q38p
Linux supports as many devices as does Windows, perhaps more. An O'Reilly.com interview describes how every major OEM has confirmed that everything they manufacture is supported by Linux: "I went and asked every single hardware manufacturer -- the big guys that ship the boxes, Dell, IBM, HP -- 'What do you ship that isn't supported by Linux?' They came back with nothing. Everything is supported by Linux. If you have a device that isn't supported by Linux that's being shipped today, let me know"...
http://tinyurl.com/5fnhv2
Just a few weeks ago, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer publicized that Linux is a bigger competitor to Windows than Apple...
http://tinyurl.com/debyky
Google searches show that many PC users -- including Gateway MT6707 owners -- report a variety of hardware problems just by trying to downgrade from MS Vista to Windows XP (or vice versa). The do-it-yourself tinkerer shouldn't hold Linux to a different standard.
MAINSTREAM consumers buy PCs that are PRELOADED with a QA-approved operating system -- Windows or Linux -- which receives technical support from the OEM or VAR.
Linux supports as many devices as does Windows, perhaps more. An O'Reilly.com interview describes how every major OEM has confirmed that everything they manufacture is supported by Linux: "I went and asked every single hardware manufacturer -- the big guys that ship the boxes, Dell, IBM, HP -- 'What do you ship that isn't supported by Linux?' They came back with nothing. Everything is supported by Linux. If you have a device that isn't supported by Linux that's being shipped today, let me know"...
Now explain to me why this claim makes sense? Why would a company ship a piece of hardware that doesn't support the OS its running on?
My netbook does what I need it to do: connect to wifi, has a great office suite, plays music, plays TV shows from the net, and many other tasks.
Like the author of the main article alluded to, Ubuntu seems to be made for netbooks and it works well with them.
10% is therefore 100 million PCs and increasing with Linux on them.
Add in the Linux netbooks and you've got a revolution happening right under your rose coloured Windows glasses. Get real indeed.
Who's shipped more pre-installed linux units since the netbook market began? Xandros? Linpus? Ubuntu?
You look at the estimates by OEM and the Non-Ubuntu Asus and Acer OEMs crush the rest of the competition. So far I haven't seen any hard numbers which suggest Canonical has out performed Xandros. Before you crown Ubuntu the winner, how about you go ask Xandros their take on the market and whether they feel comfortable declaring Ubuntu king of the netbook.
Both Canonical and Xandros are gearing up for round 2 with support for ARM based netbook devices... a market MS isn't prepared to step into at all. This should be a pretty fair matchup this time, as both are going to be at the starting gate at the same time.
-jef
At this time I'm telling customers, friends and family that if they want to buy a Linux netbook, think first of Acer, then Dell. Don't buy MSI, Acer, Lenovo, etc., As long as MSI, Acer, Lenovo and few others are oriented towards Microsoft. Don't buy them. Thing about it. If a laptop doesn't work with Linux then there is a good chance that it won't work with Windows current version or then next one coming up. If it does work with Linux then you have a much better chance of it working also with Windows 7,8 and 9, etc. Best yet are netbooks with open hardware and drivers. Then Windows 10,11 and 12 probably won't be a problem either.
Canonical forced the first eee specific Ubuntu derived project called ubuntu-eee to change its name. Its called easy peasy now. eeebuntu is going to eventually have the same problem, because it uses a custom kernel. An Ubuntu remix according to the trademark guidelines can not have deep changes unless they are certified by Canonical. I fully expect Canonical to make a request for a name change of the distribution at some point based on its trademark policy.
-jef
- Android as the "thin" OS.
- Ubuntu as the "thick" OS.
Android is probably what I would run most of the time (fast, light, easy to use, easy on the battery, cool market apps). with Ubuntu, for any heavy lifting I need to do on-the-go (e.g. software development/testing).
- by monkeyfun14 March 30, 2009 5:24 AM PDT
- Okay so if ubuntu is charging companies royalties to put ubuntu on their systems(as thats how it appears in the article) and lacks a good installer foundation and app compatibility. Wouldn't this make them just as bad as Microsoft if not worse?
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