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February 3, 2009 11:06 AM PST

Dell getting into smartphones...please no!

by Matt Asay
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While Funambol CEO Fabrizio Capobianco thinks Dell's move into smartphones is a good idea or, at least, the way it's going about it. I can't agree. Has he forgotten Dell's MP3 player?

The rest of the world certainly has.

In the smartphone market, as Capobianco notes, Dell is planning to do an open-source Google Android-based phone and a Windows Mobile-based phone, which he thinks makes sense:

I think it is a smart move. They do not take risk, they do not expose themselves too much, they will pick the winner later. The only risk of not making a move is not making a move. If the market moves too fast (it always does) they risk to be defocused and have to jump on one bandwagon quickly, dropping the other one. Motorola has done exactly that. But they are desperate. Dell is not.

It's true that Dell's open/closed approach is a less risky way than to pick one platform and go to market with only one, but the alternative is for Dell to realize that its track record in markets outside industrial enterprise markets is terrible and to stay out completely. Dell's MP3 player was worse than uncool. It was Soviet.

Now it wants to compete with the iPhone and Blackberry? Not a chance. Dell lacks the DNA. The company has always been a low-cost aggregator of others' technologies. It ha never demonstrated a penchant for design or technology innovation, both of which are key attributes of both Research in Motion and Apple. In this club, Dell can't compete.

Like Microsoft, Dell needs to look in the mirror and learn how to work with what's there, rather than veering off into foreign markets in which it has no savvy and no experience. Few are going to relish hearing, "Dude, you're getting a Dell smartphone!"

Matt Asay brings a decade of in-the-trenches open-source business and legal experience to The Open Road, with an emphasis on emerging open-source business strategies and opportunities. Matt is vice president of business development at Alfresco, a company that develops open-source software for content management. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure. You can follow Matt on Twitter @mjasay.
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by xcal78 February 3, 2009 12:20 PM PST
I'd agree that Dell should stick to what it's good at, PC's. While the Dell DJ wasn't a bad Mp3 player they couldn't focus enough into the product to compete effectively. I'd ventue to guess the same with happen with a smartphone. They also lacked a sustainable competative advantage with the Dell DJ. I hope teh execs have something lined up for the smartphone. In a tough economy a sustainable competative advantage is pretty much a requirement for a new product.
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by Remo_Williams February 3, 2009 12:23 PM PST
If the smartphone was as capable as the Dell Axims were during their heyday, well, I'd be the envy of many. The Axims were the best PDAs you could buy, back when the PDA-only play was possible. I don't see why they couldn't offer a similar best-of-breed choice to those with that mindset. Not everyone thinks a touch interface is better than sliced bread.

-R
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by jaxstephens February 3, 2009 12:33 PM PST
I totally second your thoughts about the Dell MP3 player. Anyone who has followed this industry for a few years could tell you right now that a Dell smartphone has about a 75% or higher chance of failure in the long run. It will simply not be a cool device, period. People will not want it, so they will not buy it.
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by xcal78 February 3, 2009 12:44 PM PST
Without all the info one can't accurately predict a success or failure or come to a logical hypothesis. If Dell copies the iPhone but delivers it at 1/3 of the cost they should be sucessful or if they have some new features no one else has aka a sustainable competative advantage. If they just put out a smartphone which mimics everyone else in features and price then they fail. It's all on what they are targeting as their competative advantage(s) for the smartphone. Even a new cool feature no one else has won't guarentee they sell the phone solely if the price isn't competative in this down economy. I'd say they need 2-3 competative advantages with one being price to succeed.
by xcal78 February 3, 2009 12:53 PM PST
"Now it wants to compete with the iPhone and Blackberry? Not a chance. "

Would would have thought iPhone could compete with Blackberry at the time? I never would have guessed Microsoft would take a negative 7-9 Billion dollar hit to push the xbox either. It's all what you bring to the table to sell, how you market, and how much your willing to spend to make it succeed. I just don't think Dell is willing to go the distance with a smartphone as they failed to push the the Dell DJ. I'd say this will become a nice tax write-off for Dell but maybe they'll prove us both wrong and succeed. I'd have put money on Microsoft failing on the xbox when they launched that years ago because come on, who could compete with Sony (PS) or Nintendo? Will Dell succeed? In the words of Mythbusters, 'Plausable'.
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by xcal78 February 3, 2009 12:55 PM PST
"Would would have thought iPhone could compete with Blackberry at the time?"

Who would have thought iPhone could compete with Blackberry at the time?
by odubtaig February 3, 2009 2:28 PM PST
Actually, if you know the history of the console market, 7-9 Billion isn't that astonishing a figure and considering Sony, once the incumbents, utterly buried Sega (and with those awful dev kits as well), it's foolish to count anyone out, especially if they have the capital only a huge parent company can bring.

Comparitively, the launch of the PS3 (not an incumbent so costs would be considerably lower) cost the Sony Games division ?1.4Billion ( http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/ps3-launch-damages-sony-profits ), and that's just in fiscal 2006. The fiscal 2008 loss is £337Million ( http://www.edge-online.com/news/sony-forecasts-168b-loss ). Considering the original XBox was launched at a terrible time to make any headway, I'd say it's done quiet well.
by odubtaig February 3, 2009 2:30 PM PST
Pah, stupid regionalisation.

?1.4Billion should be 1.4Billion Euros (currently over 1.8Billion US Dollars)
by odubtaig February 3, 2009 2:32 PM PST
'nother correction (I should go to bed).

That should be $337Million (USD), not £ (GBP).
by john55440 February 3, 2009 1:54 PM PST
It's silly to criticize a product that is completely unknown. Perhaps Dell's smartphone will be a pleasant surprise. No one knows.
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by Goodbye Helicopter February 3, 2009 2:29 PM PST
What could go wrong?
They don't design it or manufacture it.... some Taiwanese company does that.
All Dell does is slap their lame brand on it and try to sell it.
Then nobody buys it, because their history with PDAs and MP3 players is lame.
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by viper396 February 3, 2009 3:02 PM PST
Alot of people expected Apple to fail when they started to go into the phone business, especially since the iPhone was actually their second foray into the business.

It's a gamble for Dell, all business ventures are, but better to try then not to. Some people are not risk takers and therefore will never give themselves the opportunity to succeed because they will always assume it will failure...much like the author of this CNET article.
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by Spartan_458 February 3, 2009 4:50 PM PST
Hey, anything that's an alternative to the iPhone.
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by odubtaig February 4, 2009 11:14 AM PST
http://www.nokia.com/

Enjoy.
by qnet February 4, 2009 9:18 AM PST
They're counting on the idea that corporate buyers will buy Dell phones for the same users for whom they buy Dell notebooks, so they can put them on a single maintenance program.
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by Igloo888888 February 5, 2009 9:20 AM PST
Why are people comparing this potential Smartphone to the DJ? I'd compare a potential Smartphone with Dell's former Axim line. Quite simply the best PDA there ever was. I, along with many others in the industry were shocked at Dell for killing it...and not at least turning the Axim into a smartphone. Bet they are kicking themselves now.

This blog is just plain stupid comparing this to the DJ. I think Dell has it in them. I hope they do, because beyond RIM and Apple, there is no other company out there that has a chance to compete.
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About The Open Road

Matt Asay brings a decade of in-the-trenches open-source business and legal experience to the Open Road, with an emphasis on emerging open-source business strategies and opportunities. Matt is general manager of the Americas division and vice president of business development at Alfresco, a company that develops open-source software for content management. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.

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