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October 29, 2008 8:07 AM PDT

Windows Vista: A testament to monopoly power

by Matt Asay

Microsoft has now taken the wraps off its successor to Windows Vista with Windows 7. Despite Vista's utter failure, however, it says something of Microsoft's market position that several years of media, consumers, and enterprise customers rubbishing Vista has done nothing to touch Microsoft's balance sheet.

Think about that. How many companies do you know that could get away with releasing a complete dud...with little apparent negative effect?

Sure, Procter & Gamble could release a new deodorant and have it fail without bringing the company down with it, but Vista, or Windows, is the heart of Microsoft. To have one's central cash cow completely fail and not pay the price? Now that is power.

It's also distressing. Windows users, which account for the vast majority of computer users, have seen little innovation on the desktop over the past few years, unless one calls Vista's UAC nagware functionality ("Did you really intend to download/click/run that?") "innovative." Or how about Microsoft's "innovative" efforts to allegedly bribe and cajole Africa into abandoning Linux for Windows, as reported in the Wall Street Journal?

Mac users are more fortunate, but it's unfortunate that so many should be held ransom to the lack of creativity in Redmond.

On the other hand, Microsoft's failed leadership on the desktop has emboldened companies like Google and open-source projects like Firefox to expand the definition of desktop to include the Web. Microsoft is playing catch-up and seems quite proud of its progress, but it is still a lightweight in a heavyweight bout.

Therefore, let's take a moment to thank Microsoft for the Web. Not because it has done so much, but precisely because Vista and other Microsoft technology have delivered so little. Without Microsoft's failure to grok the Web, we might still be stuck looking out of Windows.

Matt Asay brings a decade of in-the-trenches open-source business and legal experience to The Open Road, with an emphasis on emerging open-source business strategies and opportunities. Matt is vice president of business development at Alfresco, a company that develops open-source software for content management. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.
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by Mark_Anderson October 29, 2008 8:19 AM PDT
Vista's utter failure?

We're coming up for Halloween not April Fool, mate.

But, just in case you are being serious, has it occurred to you that there hasn't been any negative affect because Vista isn't actually a dud?

Just a thought. Do try to keep an open mind, eh?
Reply to this comment
by John Howell October 30, 2008 1:22 AM PDT
The balance sheet doesn't show how many machines shipped with Vista were then retro fitted with XP, or Linux, or hacked into OS X.
I've got two desktops and a laptop at home, all shipped with Vista, none of them are running it now. MS will still claim those as sales of Vista to a happy customer.

At work all our PCs arrive with Vista OEM keys and installation media, then we re-image them with our corporate XP build. I bet MS and Acer all say, "yay, another 400 Vista workstations sold".

Seeing a Vista machine at work is rare indeed. Surprising as the OS has been out for over a year now.
by Mark_Anderson October 30, 2008 2:26 PM PDT
Not that many actually because...

1) When MS advised that Vista had sold about 140 million copies in June XP was still offered as an install by the major OEMs so if you wanted it you could have it without some convoluted process.
2) Randall Kennedy - who I'm sure you'll agree is no friend of MS - recently surveyed primarily corporate machines and noted that two-thirds of new machines purchased retained Vista. This is actually pretty good compared to XPs adoption when you consider the downgrade rights HP were offering to 2000.
3) Vista's market share increase rate suggests a pretty linear replacement rate with XP, the assumption from thsi is, of course, that the vast majority - in excess of 95% - privately owned machines shipped with Vista remain with Vista on them.

Your anecdotal evidence is all very well but it's no substitute for facts. You may also want to acquaint yourself with XP's corporate penetration rate during year's one and two of it release for a comparison.

*Pop*

That was the sound of your bubble bursting.
by odubtaig October 30, 2008 3:23 PM PDT
1) The models offered by many manufacturers with Vista were different from their XP offerings, getting exactly the same computer without a downgrade was not necessarily possible. If you payed any attention to what was actually offered you'd know this.

2) Nice massaging of the figures there.

In a survey conducted within a specific group of customers (of ex.performance.network) with software that cannot detect non-Windows operating systems (or necessarily wiped and imaged installs) over a third of systems detectable as past the cut-off point showed up as downgraded.

I especially like this bit:

"In other words, more than a third of customers chose to dump Vista from their new PCs -- typically in favor of XP, but sometimes also one of the Server variants.

"Now, we all know that enthusiasts and even some enterprise shops do their own "clean" installations as part of any new PC purchase. And the nature of a Windows-only monitoring service, like Windows Sentinel, means that we cannot factor Linux users or even the Hackintosh crowd into our numbers. However, 35 percent is still a huge percentage, and way out of proportion for even the dramatically unpopular Windows Vista."

I guess that's why you didn't provide a link: http://weblog.infoworld.com/sentinel/archives/2008/08/bursting_the_vi.html Not exactly backing up your argument.

3) Unreliable figures, irrelevant.

You have _got_ to stop posting garbage.
by Mark_Anderson October 30, 2008 4:48 PM PDT
@odubtaig

I'm sorry maybe I just didn't make it simple enough for you.

"1) The models offered by many manufacturers with Vista were different from their XP offerings, getting exactly the same computer without a downgrade was not necessarily possible. If you payed any attention to what was actually offered you'd know this."

So give me examples then. Go on.

"2) Nice massaging of the figures there.

In a survey conducted within a specific group of customers (of ex.performance.network) with software that cannot detect non-Windows operating systems (or necessarily wiped and imaged installs) over a third of systems detectable as past the cut-off point showed up as downgraded."

Which means that two-thirds didn't. When Randall said "over a third" what he means is 35% which, of course, leaves 65% who didn't or, in other words, near as damn it two thirds.

It really isn't that difficult a concept you know.

"3) Unreliable figures, irrelevant."

So give me better ones that suggest Vista isn't replacing XP in the private space.

"You have _got_ to stop posting garbage."

Irony.
by hhandyman October 29, 2008 8:52 AM PDT
Yes hold a real open mind and keep your antiques. Keep a dos level computer and a copy of each of your programs on cdr and windows at every level you bought it in then you can chase back the data you needed from ancient history say your timex sinclair and wonder how they did so much with so little system and so much data.
I have computers from ancient times that actualy used aa batteries for the sis op still can convert its output to aski so it can convert to current computers. but talk about incription as out dated as the equipenent is few can work with it now days.
as far as data goes you cant beat the old Q&A by Semantec its a great basis to run inventory and cashruegister data it can migrate to the current stuff for convienience and is easy to reprogram forms in for data basees.

the main thing is you could hold years of books on a cd truely compact without sip work. Dos..

right an Open mind not a open wallet for frills gimmme a buggy whip n helhy horse.. not a gas guzzler furgal mans computing.
Reply to this comment
by Mark_Anderson October 29, 2008 9:11 AM PDT
You know if you typed in English your post would be much easier to read.

Fortunately as it's just the usual rehashed and ignorant rhetoric no-one's actually missing anything.
by martman1 October 29, 2008 8:54 AM PDT
oh no, it's another "i hate microsoft" blogger. Why don't you give it a rest already. If Mac is so much better than windows then guess what? IT WOULD BE ON TOP. You have been buying into too many of those Mac Vs. PC commercials. Macs are good if you are a graphic or web designer, PERIOD. And you are so quick to bash vista, completely disregarding the fact that XP has been a SOLID operating system for 8 years now. And of course vista is going to have issues, it is still new and there are tons of different computers out there with different hardware. When I tried Vista, I found it unresponsive and slow so I switched back to XP, but GUESS WHAT? My PC barely met the recommended requirements for running Vista, I just wanted to try it out. Now if I was someone who knew nothing about computers like most of the world, I would probably be ranting "VISTA IS A SLOW PIECE OF CRAP!!!!!!!" being completely ignorant of the hardware issues, which it usually boils down to. Not Vistas fault, stupid users fault.
Reply to this comment
by Dalkorian October 29, 2008 12:24 PM PDT
by martman1 October 29, 2008 8:54 AM PDT
Not Vistas fault, stupid users fault.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOL! You must work for M$, since that's their default answer for everything that goes wrong. It's never M$'s fault, it's always the stupid users going to malicious websites and screwing up their systems.

I partially agree, if the user wasn't so stupid as to be running winblows to begin with, they wouldn't be having problems.
by sythara October 29, 2008 1:01 PM PDT
Dalkorian, are you serious?

User is stupid for running windows? What they should get a mac instead?

In my experience, 90% of all problems with windows (yes, any windows) are user created. I-D10-T or PEBCAC errors are called that way for a reason.
by friday04 October 29, 2008 3:57 PM PDT
"Macs are good if you are a graphic or web designer, PERIOD."

Sweet. You hate people for bashing Vista since they're just rehashing the same old arguments, many of which aren't even true anymore yet you do the exact same thing. What, exactly, can you do on Windows Vista for business that you can not do on a Mac? Maybe ActiveX controls for failed systems like Sharepoint but ActiveX is one of the major reasons Windows is such a prime target for malware.

Email, calendering, scheduling, spreadsheets, documents, presentations, web applications and many, many other business-related uses of a computer can be done very comfortably on a Mac. And in many cases it's a much better experience because the software developers for the Mac OS are amazing. I'll take OmniGraffle over Visio any day for my diagram needs. Keynote is superior to Powerpoint in almost every way imaginable. Coda is a superb web development and coding environment to work in. Business, business, business.
by Pishkado October 30, 2008 10:38 AM PDT
This post says a lot about the poster and about drinking Kool-Aid than it does about Microsoft, Vista, Apple or the Mac OS.
by cgallaway October 29, 2008 9:13 AM PDT
Personally, I call Vista ME2....because it is heavy, bloated, won't work on existing hardware (I'm not going to pay for a new computer when the old one is just as fast as the new one, just so I can get a "new" os) I guess what the apple fanboys don't realize is that for most of the world, the computer is something we use for work (office), email, internet. I suppose look and print pictures comes into play a little bit. Point being, the people that Apple is good for are a small percentage of the population that deal with graphic design, movie making, website design,....in other words, very visual oriented projects.

I am not a fanboy for Microsoft, but just trying to point out the reason why Vista didn't hurt Microsoft's bottom line is that it is "good enough" for people not doing high end computing----why pay $3000 for a Mac when I can pay $800 for a PC? This argument is similiar to one in the auto industry....why pay for the sports car, when I only need a sedan?
Reply to this comment
by sythara October 29, 2008 1:04 PM PDT
What old hardware? An ISA modem? A PCI video card? Hardware drivers are responsibility of hardware manufacturers, not creator of the OS. Its like blaming a car maker for your aftermarket stereo not working properly.
by AppleSuxLeo October 29, 2008 9:24 AM PDT
This guy is an idiot , an imbecile at best. This article says absolutely nothing and only serves as filler material for the virtual bird cage.
Reply to this comment
by Dalkorian October 29, 2008 12:25 PM PDT
The irony of your comment is not lost on you, I hope. It probably is though.
by sythara October 29, 2008 1:04 PM PDT
lol, good one Dalkorian.
by boatman574 October 29, 2008 9:54 AM PDT
I agree, Vista has some pretty cool features,The Microsoft Haters focus on the bad Like ALWAYS. As a Power User I dig Vista the only draw back was some older equiptment did not work but that would be the manufactures problem for not giving us the drivers. One more thing I just updated my computer I went to the store I purchased the items and installed them myself try that with a MAC. One last point a Monpoly is the only choice you have a choice use mac i for one am not swayed by the hype, I own a ZUNE , A PC, AND a Sprint INSTINCT I'm doing fine without MAC
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by marcobw October 29, 2008 10:13 AM PDT
Hey Matt (aka Apple suck-up boy), Vista works great, I've never had one problem with it and I know many people who are having the same experience. By the way, how much is Apple paying you (under the table of course) to post this garbage?
Reply to this comment
by EricTetz October 29, 2008 10:15 AM PDT
"oh no, it's another 'i hate microsoft' blogger. Why don't you give it a rest already. If Mac is so much better than windows then guess what? IT WOULD BE ON TOP."

How is that?

First, Windows is an operating system. Macintosh is a computer system. They *aren't* direct competitors.

Second, like it or not, for a whole host of reasons (not the least of which as being in the right place at the right time) Windows became the de facto standard of the personal computer era. There is incredible economic value in having a standard platform, which has served to inhibit competition and perpetuate Microsoft's monopoly.

So the real question is, has Microsoft been a good steward of it's monopoly? Up until Vista, I would have said yes. They've had a few missteps, but mostly the Windows platform has been improving with each generation in response to customer demand.

Then Microsoft releases Vista. Vista is the absolute opposite of what most power users want (i.e. smaller, faster, less 'creeping death syndrome', better transparency/tools for dealing with adware/malware/etc.) Instead, it's bloated, slow, obfuscated, with an incredibly intrusive security scheme which annoys power users to no end and does nothing to protect unsophisticated users (who just end up clicking "yes" to the malware/trojan executable). Users don't want it. They don't buy it. So Microsoft forces them to, by taking XP off the market. That's abuse.

"When I tried Vista, I found it unresponsive and slow so I switched back to XP, but GUESS WHAT?"

Bingo. One issue among many.

"My PC barely met the recommended requirements for running Vista [..] Now if I was someone who knew nothing about computers like most of the world, I would probably be ranting 'VISTA IS A SLOW PIECE OF CRAP!!!!!!!"

Do you even hear what you are saying? Vista IS a slow piece of crap. The fact that you have to get a MORE POWERFUL COMPUTER in order for it to run as well as XP does on a SLOWER MACHINE does not making it a user issue, it's a Vista issue.
Reply to this comment
by djkouza October 29, 2008 12:45 PM PDT
Yes Vista has issues, but really any New OS is going to offer features requiring more horsepower... OX X 10.5 won't run on older hardware that 10.2 ran on, but that is because if you want more you need to have more.
by The_Decider October 30, 2008 9:04 AM PDT
djkouza,

Modern Linux distros have far more useful features than Vista and can run pretty smooth on a system with a lower end single core processor and 512 MB of RAM.

That is the difference in competence.
by Mark_Anderson October 30, 2008 2:27 PM PDT
@The_Decider

Really? Why don't you give us a rundown of those "far more useful features". You know the ones that your average buyer is really going to give a toss about?
by Don Key October 29, 2008 11:18 AM PDT
How is it any different then the huge flop called ME? Seriously, Microsoft could crap in a box and people would still be forced to buy it.
Reply to this comment
by Mark_Anderson October 29, 2008 12:35 PM PDT
Probably because it's sold a lot more copies and is the fastest growing OS out there?
by odubtaig October 29, 2008 12:58 PM PDT
According to what figures again? Every computer that's sold and 'downgraded' to XP counts as a Vista sale (yes, it can still be done that way from the supplier). Not to mention computers are so cheap these days it's not worth going through the hassle of squeezing a Linux box out of a supplier, easier to buy a Vista box, wipe the drive and drop Linux on it. Still counts as a vista sale.

Then there's the number of organisations and businesses that have site licenses for XP and wipe->install every computer they deploy with their precustomised images. Still 'Vista' sales according to MS. I believe they probably count a few thousand Vista boxes at Birmingham City University (that's England, not Alabama) but there's not a single desktop box running anything other than XP.

Now, at what point does it stop being 'massaging the figures' and become outright lying?
by sythara October 29, 2008 1:08 PM PDT
Has anyone here actually used ME? I used it for a year when transitioning between 98 and 2k, and haven't really had many problems aside from occasional glitch here and there. Not saying ME was a good OS, but has anyone here that actually used it have had any real problems with it? No, don't look on wikipedia to find out its infamous flaws.
by odubtaig October 29, 2008 2:32 PM PDT
You mean apart from the error dialog that won't die no matter how many times you click OK and has to be shifted into a corner so you can get anything done because it's forcibly on top of everything else? Even the die hard MS fans I know (the ones who make their own USB recovery sticks with Vista and can get a fully operational network connection and evrything) consider WinME to be a diabolical abomination.
by Mark_Anderson October 29, 2008 3:34 PM PDT
@odubtaig

Well we can start with hitlist's figures and work from there.

http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=11&qpcustom=Windows+Vista

Sorry to burst your bubble.
by odubtaig October 29, 2008 4:40 PM PDT
Oh dear, someone else relying on hitslink to 'prove' their point. I thought everyone knew by now that hitcount statistics are about as much use as a chocolate fireguard?
by Mark_Anderson October 30, 2008 2:28 PM PDT
So where's your evidence that it isn't?

Oh right. You don't have any.

LOL!
by odubtaig October 30, 2008 2:50 PM PDT
It's discussed to death, do a basic internet search bonehad.
by Mark_Anderson October 30, 2008 4:50 PM PDT
No, kid. How about you give me stats rather than anecdotes?
by BenjaminWright October 29, 2008 11:27 AM PDT
People like Matt had me fearing Vista would be a dog. Then I bought a $400 laptop with Vista home basic. I sprung an extra $27 to bump the RAM from 1 gig to 2. I've been very pleasantly surprised. Vista and the laptop work just fine. After a couple of months I turned off numerous unnecessary Vista features. But I didn't notice any change, as the machine was working just fine before I turned the stuff off. For a mere $427, the laptop is reasonably peppy. --Ben
Reply to this comment
by The_Decider October 30, 2008 9:07 AM PDT
Put Linux or XP on it and see how much faster it runs.

What are you gaining for the performance loss?
by ppgreat October 29, 2008 12:42 PM PDT
A lot of these arguments remind me of that old Mad TV spot: "Lowered Expectations".

If you only set your sights on Windows, and you only compare Windows releases, you are probably reasonably satisfied with Vista.

I reloaded Vista last night from scratch. From the time I loaded the DVD and applied all the OS upgrades via cable modem, the entire process took over 2 and 1/2 hours! That's ridiculous! And I didn't even reload application software.

One of my favorite posts on Vista is still: http://blogmaverick.com/2007/09/16/once-you-go-mac/

Tolerating stuff like this just reeks of mediocrity to me.
Reply to this comment
by Mark_Anderson October 29, 2008 3:36 PM PDT
Sort of like your installation skills?

Two and a half hours? Seriously.
by George Gray October 30, 2008 9:07 AM PDT
Huh...my last install of Vista took about 45 minutes. I must have done something wrong.
by The_Decider October 30, 2008 9:08 AM PDT
Reinstalling Windows, including applications is an all day affair.

Your vague mocking is laughable, especially as your previous posts show you have no technical competence.
by Mark_Anderson October 30, 2008 2:29 PM PDT
@The_Decider

Only if your incompetent. I'm not mocking, I'm stating a fact - if it takes more than an hour to install Vista and all your apps then you're useless.

Sorry.
by odubtaig October 30, 2008 3:04 PM PDT
No you're not, you're an arrogant ignoramus and an unpleasant jerk to boot.

If you had any experience with actually installing Vista on a consumer computer you'd know that the SP1 installation can take anything up to an hour just to get through the reboot with some people breaking the install because they thought it had hung and reset the computer. Couple that with a relatively slow connection to download the updates and 2.5 hours is not extreme.

Of course, if you actually had any experience with home installations you'd know that.

I think you've made it quite clear from your comments here that you don't know what you're talking about but you're not going to let that stop you mouthing off.
by Mark_Anderson October 30, 2008 4:52 PM PDT
Look you're either a troll or just plain hopeless, it really is that simple.

Either way you've had your fifteen minutes, kid.

Toodles.
by softwaredesignengineer October 29, 2008 12:58 PM PDT
Matt,

If I never had used Vista, I would have believed everything you said since your a major guy at "News.com".

Here's some bad news for you: I've been using Vista heavily since December last year and whatever you claim here - that Vista is an "utter failure", a "complete dud" is total NONSENSE simply because, apart from people like me, the Vista adoption figures themselves prove you are either ignorant, in self denial or hate Microsoft simply because it's a big successful company that is not open source (more open than Apple anyway).

You brag a lot about a Mac which has a much smaller desktop presence compared to Microsoft's desktop domination. Over that, a Mac machine costs twice the price for a Vista machine. So who are you kidding?

You claim Microsoft has "failed leadership" in the desktop market.

Here's some news for you: MICROSOFT IS STILL THE DESKTOP LEADER the last time I checked.

So you keep wondering why. The answer is yourself - your self denial and your personal animosity against a big large successful company called Microsoft which is not as open source as you wish it to be.
Reply to this comment
by The_Decider October 30, 2008 9:11 AM PDT
Lots of BS here.

An equal comparison between a PC and Mac will show that they are very close, with Mac sometimes beating out a comparable PC. The keyword is comparable, something you can't seem to do.

MS has the market share due to predatory monopoly tactics.

One thing you aren't understanding: Windows growth rate is at or below zero. Apple is seeing double digit growth rates. Guess what is going to happen in 5 years?
by Mark_Anderson October 30, 2008 2:30 PM PDT
@The_Decider

Yeah, Apple will top out at about 15% US and 6% Global.
by softwaredesignengineer October 31, 2008 6:34 PM PDT
@The_Decider,

>>An equal comparison between a PC and Mac will show that they are very close, with Mac sometimes beating out a comparable PC.

Yeah, the only place where costs are comparable is taking high end Notebooks that are $1500+ and comparing them with Macbooks. Please, Mac fanboys always bring this up disregarding the fact that you won't get anything close within the $1000 level which is what most laymen users look for.

So enough of that propaganda. The facts speak for themselves. Who're you trying to fool here huh?
by Tassography October 29, 2008 1:19 PM PDT
Is there anyway of removing this particular blog from the CNet RSS feed? It's just the same old rubbish with no balanced journalism that the rest of the CNet feed has...
Reply to this comment
by combatwombat_nz October 29, 2008 1:21 PM PDT
Actually, I love Vista. It gives me something to poke fun at. It means that I am employed fixing computers for those who run it - "Why is it so slow???" "It's the latest and greatest from Microsoft, whadya expect? Here, buy some more RAM and a faster graphics card, and a bigger CPU..."

Meanwhile I run linux...little, cheap, no market share, fast, solid, reliable. But where's the fun in that?

Anyone else notice how much like Gnome "Windows Server 2008" is?
Reply to this comment
by Mark_Anderson October 29, 2008 3:38 PM PDT
The fun in Linux?

Certainly not having to use ndiswrapper to run Netgear cards or turning Compiz off because it doesn't play well with Radeon cards.
by odubtaig October 29, 2008 4:48 PM PDT
There's something that plays well with Radeon cards? That's the weakest argument yet; ATI are notorious for flakey drivers and card-specific bugs in games (Black & White 2, City of Heroes).
by Mark_Anderson October 30, 2008 2:31 PM PDT
Really? It worked fine on my PC.

Now nVidia...

Ugh.
by odubtaig October 30, 2008 2:51 PM PDT
Truly your experience is not the norm, I hear regular complaints.
by George Gray October 30, 2008 9:06 AM PDT
You know, this 'Vista is a failure' garbage is really old now. Those who STILL claim it is slow, buggy and needs to be fixed are in denial. It would be like me saying 'Leopard needs to be fixed.' A quicky search on Google for Leopard problems results in links to stories about how Leopard is slow, Leopard updates result in constant reboots, older software won't work, etc. Gee, sounds like the criticisms of Vista, doesn't it? So, just from that quick search and skimming the stories, I can conlude that Leopard is a failure and needs to fixed, right?
Reply to this comment
by JamesRatcliff October 30, 2008 2:06 PM PDT
question for Mac users:

How much money have you parted with in the last few years for your copy of Mac OS X?


Same question to Windows users?

Now who makes more from their OS per customer?
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About The Open Road

Matt Asay brings a decade of in-the-trenches open-source business and legal experience to the Open Road, with an emphasis on emerging open-source business strategies and opportunities. Matt is general manager of the Americas division and vice president of business development at Alfresco, a company that develops open-source software for content management. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET. Disclosure.

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