Ballmer on mobile: Apple will lose and we'll win because 'we're separatists'

If you've yet to watch Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer's recent Churchill Club comments on everything from server virtualization to search to the mobile market, you're in for a treat. Ballmer is at his best, ripping on everything and everyone...except Microsoft.

Indeed, it's when Ballmer hits rewind on history to argue that Apple will lose in all the markets in which it is currently thriving--including smartphones and laptops--because it's not enough like Microsoft that he hits peak form:

Asked about smartphones, Ballmer said Nokia, Research In Motion, and Apple will all lose out as the market expands over the next five years, because they design their own proprietary hardware and tie it closely to their software.

Nokia leads the smartphone market today with about a 30 percent share, he said. "If you want to reach more than that, you have to separate the hardware and software in the platform," he said.

In other words, he thinks the same strategy that helped Microsoft become the leader on the desktop--licensing its OS for use by other hardware makers--will let it win out on smartphones. Long term, he said, the battle will be between the Symbian OS (which is now open source), mobile versions of Linux, and Windows Mobile.

I have some sympathy for this view, having argued that Google's Android is weakened by its lack of control over hardware (and boy, is its current hardware ugly). But this is a problem for the next few years.

Will Microsoft's strategy to separate hardware and software win long-term? Maybe. indeed, probably. But "in the long run," as John Maynard Keynes famously said, "we're all dead." Microsoft's mobile business may not be around long enough to be able to gloat over the iPhone's diminished fortunes because, well, those fortunes are rocking right now.

Besides, there may be some factors that favor Apple this time around, as MacDailyNews suggests--like Apple's current ability and willingness to bludgeon Microsoft with its patents (ugh) and like the lack of a contract to make it easy for Microsoft to pilfer from Apple's ideas. So, this time Microsoft may find it more difficult to replicate its stunning desktop success simply by separating hardware from software.

The ironic thing in all this is that Ballmer is (gasp!) talking out of both sides of his mouth (again). Ballmer recently said that Microsoft needs to start combining hardware and software to provide better experiences in mobile, like with the Zune. But then, if it weren't self-contradictory and hubris-filled, it wouldn't be classic Ballmer.

[ewelch]

Ballmer is flat out wrong. It's the principle of fhe instrument at work in his mind.

What's that?

Give a child a hammer, and everything he encounters requires hammering. That's his separate hardware from software theory.

Windows Mobile is failing fast. It has no chance of becoming relevant for the very reason that software and hardware are NOT tied together. These are not personal computers. They are devices that do some things like computers and other things like phones. They are appliances. They need to have invisible software. It's there, but you never see it abstracted from the device. There's no dock like OSX or start button like Windows in the interface. The start button here is the only physical button on the front.

Ballmer needs to get out of his echo chamber and see the real world.

[stefanvolos]

Steve Ballmer is to Microsoft what Dick Cheney is to American Government

[Vegaman_Dan]

I don't agree with all of Ballmer's comments, but he does at least get passionate about it. Got to give him that much.

The iPhone may suffer from the lack of being updated as frequently as the consumer's whimsical fancy does. Nokia does quite well because they are constantly changing their models and have a lot of flexibility when it comes to getting a new phone from concept to market in a very short time. Closed systems like the Apple unit take years to bring to market- and that means there may not be a market for it when you're ready.

The cell phone industry is one that is fast and furious. You need to be very adaptable to keep up with consumer choice and fashion.

The iPhone was about ego at first- really. You got one to be unique and special, to be seen with one. "Wow, that's an iPhone! Cool!" Now you can get them at $200 like a lot of phones in that market. A lot of people have them. It's no longer 'special' to have one. "Oh, you have an iPhone. I had one of those, but now I have the XYZ NewAirTech Streamline 9000" or whatever.

Consumers are fickle. Can you keep up with their demand?

[Everlovin G]

No amount of bloviating from Steve Ballmer will undo Microsoft's inability to INNOVATE.

To wit: They followed Apple® (et al) into the mobile communications device market (and, hey, remember the Newton? Apple was SO FAR ahead of the curve on that one that they failed). Microsoft has followed just about everyone else into the portable media device market (where Apple yet reigns supreme).

Microsoft ? ACTION in the marketplace; Microsoft = REACTION to the marketplace

(yes, I'm an unapologetic 'Apple guy')

[ckurowic]

No arguments here, friend :) (at Everlovin G)

[scottwilkins]

You have to be under a rock (called Apple) to miss out on the innovation brought by others. Historically, Apple is the slowest and usually the last to market on most ideas. For instance the iPod was NOT the first MP3 player on the market. Only the first to be advertised on TV. Unless you consider TV ads innovative, well then you will have to step back and see that the iPod has stagnated, just like all things Apple. Apple is in a rut of gloat and self indulgance. You can see that in their stock price today, as it has dropped considerably due to market pressures.

[friday04]

@scottwilkins

You think the original Diamond Rio 32MB MP3 player was a good device? Or the 6GB Creative Nomad player that resembled a portable CD player with a tiny LCD and you had to load with USB 1.1? What was INNOVATIVE of Apple was taking the idea of the MP3 player and creating a device that was small enough to carry, had a user interface that was dead simple, and music transfer over firewire. It was the 1st MP3 player to have any kind of appeal to the general public. All of those other toys were for the tech kids.

The same can be said of many of their innovations. The innovation for Apple is the ability to see how the users want to use something. Not how some engineer who invented something thought it might be used. What good is a computer if you don't know code and can't interact with any of the files. Apple didn't invent computers, they were innovative in bringing computers to the masses.

Which Microsoft then stole.

[friday04]

While the world focused on the evil empire at the time, IBM, as Apple introduced stunning hardware and software that blew people away, it was Microsoft waiting in the wings (literally!) that was the true enemy. Quick and nimble they were able to blow up IBM and Apple and take over the desktop.

I see the trend happening again. The world is focused on the current evil empire, Microsoft, as Apple introduced stunning hardware and software in the mobile industry that blew people away. But this time it's Google waiting in the wings (and sitting on Apple's board) that is the real threat. Quick an nimble versus Microsoft's slow, lumbering business. And once again Apple's closed "end-to-end" solution may be it's death.

The only difference between then and now is Apple is a household name with the iPod. That ecosystem they've built is very comfortable to many "non-tech" people who just want to use an interface they understand.

[The_happy_switcher]

I wish Ballmer would just **** himself.

[rjpotts]

I want whatever Ballmer is smoking.

[Goodbye Helicopter]

That old blowhard, sweaty pits monkey...
the mobile market is a tenuous one.
The history of Palm will show that.
It is a most fickle market.
Apple may not be refreshing often enough or radically enough to maintain it.
The Japanese market is the prime example.
Most phones have mostly the same features with different colors, sounds, and shapes. Carriers bring new handsets out every quarter. Consumers expect it.
A one year old model is the give way model.
Older, and it's not on the market at all.
novelty wears off quickly.
windows mobile has never and will never be a success.
mobile device makers already have tons of software / OS options to quickly and easily create well-working phones with features.
It's a market that will ebb and flow and eventually be just as highly commoditized as it has ever been.

[AudioDroid]

And if you want over 30% market share in video game consoles, you will have to separate hardware and software? Unlike Xbox. Or PS3. Or especially Wii.

Nintendo's ability to outsell MSFT with a ratio of 3-to-1 is clear evidence of their flawed integration strategy. Maybe the Xbox team shrewdly used the same flawed strategy to guarantee that their market share would never reach monopolistic proportions, inviting anti-trust scrutiny?

[Perry_Clease]

"You have to be under a rock (called Apple) to miss out on the innovation brought by others. Historically, Apple is the slowest and usually the last to market on most ideas. For instance the iPod was NOT the first MP3 player on the market. Only the first to be advertised on TV. Unless you consider TV ads innovative, well then you will have to step back and see that the iPod has stagnated, just like all things Apple. Apple is in a rut of gloat and self indulgance. You can see that in their stock price today, as it has dropped considerably due to market pressures."

Apple generally does things better even IF they are not first to the market. Marconi did not invent the radio, but he took it someplace that the originator could or would not.

As to Apple stocks falling, well read the market news.

[lordmorgul]

LMAO: 'the iPod has stagnated'... uhm, yeah that'd what I'd call the Touch, stagnant 'has been' we all have seen everywhere else in the market, nothing more than a carbon copy device... wait... wait a second; it has features no other portable media player has, it has the smoothest interface, and more than enough capacity. That's not a stagnant product, it is a timely and appropriate product which is why they are selling.

Making these broad long term predictions on technology companies (like Ballmer is doing here) is a waste of time (mine, listening to him) and energy (getting his statements out to the masses). You cannot predict long term success or failure of a company that generates innovative products... and calling them 'slowest' to market does not change or shadow the innovation. Ballmer should look up the word 'innovation' in the dictionary; it has nothing to do with being first to market with a product.

[tacit]

Funny thing. I was in the market for a new phone recently, having very quickly lost my enthusiasm for my Motorola Razr, a very pretty piece of hardware saddled with a clumsy and poorly-designed user interface.

I looked at PalmOS phones, Windows Mobile phones, and the iPhone. I've had a Palm-based device before, and it was okay, though nothing terribly special; but PalmOS phones are slow to market, expensive, and feature-poor compared to other phones at the same price.

Several people I know have Windows smartphones. My girlfriend's Windows-based phone tends to disconnect in the middle of calls with (no kidding) a blue screen of death; it happened a half-dozen times in the first week she had it.

Another friend of mine replaced her Windows-based phone when it started getting in the habit of calling people randomly on its own. She'd have it sitting on top of the dresser or on a shelf somewhere and it'd just randomly call people. Talk about annoying! (And she wasn't the only one; it happened to several acquaintances of mine with Windows-based phones as well.)

The iPhone is relatively cheap and works very well. I chose an iPhone because it cost less than PalmOS-based smart phones,a nd because the people I know who have Windows smartphones have had such poor experiences. You know what? The iPhone is the first phone I've owned that I really like.

Moral of the story: All Ballmer's bluster can't make up for a poorly-engineered product. I'd have a Windows phone in my pocket right now if it hadn't been for the fact that everyone I know who owns one has had problems with it.

[benjaminstraight]

Apple will do down when Wal Mart does

[Macbrewer]

Balmer is propping up a house of cards.

Windows Mobile is a total failure. Tablet computing, again, total failure. Vista, big failure. Search/Internet, an absolute failure. I.E. strategy, worked as only such a huge, unregulated monopoly can make it work, but still losing marketshare. It's a horrible browser, anyone can see that if they bother to look. Windows itself, losing marketshare--same issue, really lacking in quality, hardly any innovation, still huge driver issues, stability, etc...

[zato_3]

"In other words, he thinks the same strategy that helped Microsoft become the leader on the desktop--licensing its OS for use by other hardware makers"

More revisionist history. The cloning of the IBM PC bios by Columbia Data Products followed by the arrival of cheaper clones from Compac etc. pushed Microsoft, kicking and screaming, into becoming a "separate" supplier. The original Bill Gates Microsoft wanted to be just like IBM, right down to the baseball bat carrying bill collectors.

[davidwb]

The iPhone had everything stacked against it. The price was too high. It was tied to a single service, its software was limited and limiting. But it captured the imagination and sold like crazy. Version 2 did just as well in spite of the fact that the cost of ownership went up and not down in version 2. That we now have applications obviously helps.

The huge fly in the ointment for Microsoft's Mobile software and Android is that the iPhone is fast becoming ubiquitous. Everyone knows about it and how it works. You can't go anywhere without seeing a few of them. That wasn't true of the Mac. Most people had nothing to compare Windows 3 against - except DOS. But every phone is now being compared to the iPhone. That's strike one. Strike two is that neither Microsoft nor Google control the hardware and this makes life difficult for programmers. Why should I spent lots of time making my program work great with a touch phone if there are more models that lack touch than have it? So the least common denominator damns the software. Remember strike one? Right - this time people know about it so strike two is real. And strike three? Apple is proving to be nibble in responding to its competition and is actually - gasp - innovating.

Instead of eating his own food, Ballmer has been smoking his stash.

[Alex Alexzander]

I don't think Steve Balmer is all that off to be honest.I recently switched from my second iPhone to a Moto Q. I am surprised how well Windows Mobile is working out for me. I don't know a sole who uses it, so no one ever preached it's feature-set to me before. I have to admit, I bought it because I tried everything else and this was the only rock left that I had not yet over turned in my quest for phone/pda nirvana.

The first thing that made an impression on me is the lack of the iPhone style and large screen. If you yourself ever switch away from the iPhone this are easily the hardest part to get past. My screen is half the size of the iPhone. It is half the resolution of the iPhone. Furthermore, in terms of style, it's not even half. It's simply not going to win any style awards. So naturally the first thought going through my mind as I was getting used to it was the loss of the polished look and feel I got used to. I clearly stepped back a generation in terms of technology.

On my first day of use, I wondered if I should take the phone back and simply go back to the BlackBerry, which is what I used prior to going to the iPhone. I know the BlackBerry operating system like the back of my hand. Furthermore, I could get SalesForce Mobile for the BlackBerry. Most of the reason I felt I needed to drop the iPhone and get Windows Mobile was due to the lack of SalesForce Mobile support. What Apple had shown off at the developer meeting was spectactular, but it's not what is actually available for the iPhone at this time. What we have on the iPhone right now is a read-only variant of the salesforce mobile software. The Palm, BlackBerry, and Windows Mobile versions are mature and work today. The iPhone does not.

It took me all of about 3 days to completely switch to the Moto Q and I am so glad I did give it a try. I remember I wanted to learn how to configure it to my liking. I remembered how I felt when I first started using the BlackBerry after dropping the Treo 650 which crashed often. I felt like I had made a horrible mistake, but over time; I could turn the BlackBerry into quite the useful tool. I believed I could likely accomplish the same thing with Windows Mobile. The question at that time was two-fold. Could I make Windows Mobile more useful than the BlackBerry and more useful than the iPhone. Well, not to be mean or anything, but more useful than the iPhone was easy. I accomplished that when I finished configuring SalesForce Mobile with my SalesForce web app. Therefore, the iPhone was beat. However, the iPhone still had that lust thing going for it, and Windows Mobile was no where in that game.

By the second day, I was determined to learn to tweak the interface to my liking. That means to configure the icons and understand the keyboard, menus, keys, and all the ways you can navigate. I have always felt that once you learn your way around a phone's interface you tend to feel more at home with it. You also become that much more roductive.

Email

I found I could configure email the way I had wished for on the iPhone. I could state settings like, download up to 5k or up to 50k and then ask me to download the rest. I configured three email accounts on this phone. GMail, MobileMe, and my business POP3 email account. I gave each one its own signature setting. In addition, I found I had a great menu of features in email. Such things as copy & paste, save attachments, and even a file system. Windows Mobile 6.1 has Documents 2 Go from DataViz pre-installed, and that includes a ZIP compression tool, mobile Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and a viewer for PDF. All of these are very mature applications. They each are very high quality and blew right past the capabilities of my last two BlackBerry devices. Score a few points for Windows Mobile. And because iPhone lacks copy & paste, the ability to detach, save as, and re-attach with the iPhone, score a few more points for Windows Mobile against the iPhone as well.

Windows Mobile 6.1 also features HTML mail right out of the box. BlackBerry did not. I had to purchase a product from a third-party developer called Empower to give me that feature on the BlackBerry. Believe me, that added feature on the BlackBerry left much to desire. Score again for the Windows Mobile. iPhone already has this. However, the iPhone has to reload each time you read an email. That drove my to madness so many times. Windows Mobile caches everything. Viewing email in Windows Mobile is a thousand times faster. And because the phone is 3G same as the iPhone, download speed is no problem. In fact, I feel even more sure now that the iPhone's 3G is somehow not all together working right. I write this because my Moto Q downloads large attachments with ease. Something that took a decade on the iPhone even with 3G. Score again for Windows Mobile.

Sync with Outlook.

One of the things that truly bothered me with the iPhone was the lack of tasks and notes sync. Windows Mobile comes with task sync, but oddly enough no notes sync. I was completely blown away by this. We have a voice note app, but not the text-based notes sync that I had wanted. I went to the online software store Handango to see if they had a third-party solution. For a mere $17 I found exactly the perfect notes app, and it hooks right into Microsoft's Active Sync. That means it extends the defaults to include notes sync with the notes you already have in Outlook. You are not using some strange note app, you are using the notes built into outlook. Everything right down to the color of note pad is preserved and in sync on the phone with this little gem. And because we already have Contact, Tasks, Calendar, Email, and even file sync, it truly completes the mobile experience. So Notes and Tasks are finally resolved. Score one for Windows Mobile.

Mobile Instant Messangers

As you might have guessed, Windows Mobile has built in support for AIM, MSN, and YIM. The mobile IM can be setup to log you in automatically, and alert you to new instant messages. You can log into one or all your accounts and even multiple accounts under the same messenger. I left this running for over 24 hours in the background and there is simply no battery drain for doing this. The BlackBerry does this just as well. Only Apple claims it's a problem for the battery. Score one for Windows Mobile and I guess BlackBerry while I'm at it.

Webster's Dictionary

The iPhone has a wonderful third-party dictionary. The Treo also had a great third-party dictionary. The BlackBerry on the other hand had a basic dictionary, but so little memory you were left with making the choice of the dictionary and nothing else for lack of memory space, or everything else and no dictionary. It was a sad day when I realized this and had to go without a good type-ahead dictionary. I use the dictionary to help me learn vocabulary as I read or listen to books. I am pleased to report that not only was I able to find a huge dictionary for Windows Mobile; I also found I could install it on the added SDHC memory card so as to save space on the main system memory. Which by the way, the left over memory on the Windows Mobile device is greater than all the memory on the BlackBerry 8800 and 8310 I used to use. I have 5 times more memory on this device than I had on the BlackBerry, and because software can be installed on my 8 GB SDHC card, applications don't even take away from the huge memory stack. So score a huge one for the Windows Mobile, and also for iPhone. In my opinion, the iPhone, Treo, and Windows Mobile got it right, and the BlackBerry totally dropped the ball in this regard.

Pocket Tunes

I've been singing the praises of Pocket Tunes since when I had a Treo. pTunes is easily the hands-down best music app for a PDA that has ever existed. This little gem plays AAC, WMA, MP3 and even subscription-based protected WMA files from services like Yahoo and Napster. It also supports skins, allowing you to completely customize the interface. I begged this developer to port the app to the BlackBerry platform when I switched. At the time they supported only the Treo. They support Windows Mobile, and the Treo at this time. I am so hooked on the Zune that I don't think it maters now, but I bought it and loaded it on my Windows Mobile anyway. I also went to Audible.com and discovered direct support for the Moto Q for Audible content. Talk about a double-score, I could listen to subscription music, playlists, podcasts, and even Audible content on my Moto Q. Score two more for the Windows Mobile. iPhone has no support for subscription music.

File Manager

Apple in their lameness doesn't allow you to add files over USB. If you didn't know this, it's why every app on the iTunes App Store uses little IP based servers on the iPhone to send and receive docs over WiFi. It's pretty stupid if you ask me. The apps offered in the app store don't even support all the file types you'd expect. No support for Office 2007 file types. And you cannot edit any of them on the iPhone. It's merely lame reader. On Windows Mobile you not only get Documents2Go and the option for Microsoft's own Mobile Office, you also get native support for all the file formats. Full read and write, and formatting is preserved. You can sync files from Windows Mobile to your PC easily. Score a huge one for Windows Mobile.

Bluetooth

I bought a noise reducing JawBone for the Moto Q. This $129 dollar Bluetooth headset do 4 hours of talk time and 8 days of standby. That being said, you have the option for quite a few stereo bluetooth devices. One of them even has a display on it that shows who is calling you so you can ignore or answer the call right from the bluetooth headset. I have to admit I am impressed with this. There is no stereo bluetooth on the Apple iPhone. Score another for the Moto Q and Windows Mobile.

Making the device into a productive tool.

I learned you can organize the icons on the Moto Q in any way you want much the way you can create a launcher on Windows. As a result, from left to right on my Moto Q I have Internet Explorer, Mail, Calendar, Tasks, Notes, SalesForce, File Manager, Webster's Dictionary, IM, Weather, pTunes, and Task Manager. My front screen shows a report style of current status, which details phone calls missed, voice mails, messages, up coming appointments and tasks.

On the keypad if I start to type out someone's name, it automatically creates a list of matching contacts, so I can dial or text-message that contact quickly. That's so much better than swiping the iPhone screen, going to phone or contacts, and all the other steps needed to finally arrive at a contact.

So this phone is not as pretty as the iPhone, but it has all the tools I need. It's fast and productive. In three days time, I have made the phone mine. I turned on my iPhone today and started to use a couple of the apps to see how I would feel. I'm glad I switched from pretty and cool, to functional and productive. I'm frankly amazed that a Windows Mobile phone which is clear a full generation older that the iPhone with half the screen size and resolution is kicking Apple's behind in terms of the productivity I can achive. If Microsoft can beat Apple in productivity with this older gen phone system, what's going to happen when Microsoft catches up to this new technology? In that loaded question, I realized something about Apple. They pay so many attentions to how something looks that they forget what is most important; which is how well it actually works. What good is it if it doesn't get the job done?

Alex Alexzander

[friday04]

As is the case with everything in life, you must find what works best for you, for your situation. I use the internet a lot and having a great browser on my phone is essential. I've used Opera on a Blackberry and Sony Ericsson and I've used IE Mobile and they simply do not even come close to the Safari browser on the iPhone. I mean, no where in the vicinity. Miles and miles and miles behind.

Personally, I find the OS to be frustrating with far too many menus and clicks do any given task. For people who don't need to connect to Microsoft's software and services such as Outlook or Word or Live then Windows Mobile quickly loses its appeal. There are so many other options on the table. And that's the point of the author's rant against Ballmer here. Windows Mobile is falling behind the competition in an extremely competitive environment. They just pushed WinMo 7 back to late 2009. That's not good news in a cutthroat industry like the cell phone industry.

They may come out with something truly extraordinary with Windows Mobile 7 is launched. But don't think for a second that the people behind Android, Symbian and the iPhone are going to be resting on their laurels waiting for Microsoft to catch up.

[m_flo]

Nice try.

Microsoft obviously signs your paychecks!

[Alex Alexzander]

@friday04, Why not try typing my name in Google. You will quickly see that not only does Microsoft not sign my paychecks, but that I have written quite a few things in favor of Apple in most cases. Even wrote a book on DVD Studio Pro. In your mind anyone who takes a little time to explain what's on his mind must be working for the big guys. I guess from your point of view, which you express so poorly, you believe others must also lack an effort as you do.

Kind regards,

Alex Alexzander

[friday04]

I think you meant to reply to @m_flo because I wasn't being derogatory toward your post.

[m_flo]

Microsoft needs to drop Ballmer like a bad habit -- THE SOONER THE BETTER!

[Alex Alexzander]

@friday, sorry I meant @m_flo earlier.

It truly depends which smart phone you try. A friend just showed me, today, a SmartPhone also based on Windows Mobile 6.1 that uses a stylus and is menu driven. And it was difficult to use. I felt lost with it. However the Moto Q works a lot like a BlackBerry. It's a one-handed operation that does not use a stylus. There is a start button but it's not that much needed if at all as you can configure the front screen to have icons one the desktop in which to quickly launch what you need.

Windows Mobile is obviously not the same experience on every device. Consider that before you decide that all Windows Mobile devices are equal. Mine in my humble opinion is very simple to use.

Kind regards,

Alex Alexzander

[amoschinoz]

Great analysis Alex Alexzander.