Survey: Keyboards, DRM to become scarce in 2012

Step aside, keyboards, laptops, and 9-to-5 jobs. A survey of more than 1,000 Internet activists, journalists, and technologists released Sunday speculates that by 2012, those quaint relics of 20th century life will fade away.

It's not a formal survey of the sort that, say, political pollsters use. Nor are computer journalists especially known for their prognosticative abilities. Still, the Pew Internet and American Life Project hopes the effort will provide a glimpse of the best current thinking about how online life will evolve in the next decade or so.

Lee Rainie and the other Pew researchers asked their survey respondents to respond to a series of questions about 2020 future scenarios, including whether the mobile phone will be the "primary" Internet connection (most agreed), whether copy protection will flourish (most disagreed), and whether transparency "heightens individual integrity and forgiveness (evenly split).

The rough consensus was that "few lines divide professional time from personal time," and that professionals are happy with the way work and play are "seamlessly integrated in most of these workers' lives."

Another, which also met with broad agreement: "Talk and touch are common technology interfaces. People have adjusted to hearing individuals dictating information in public to their computing devices. In addition 'haptic' technologies based on touch feedback have been fully developed, so, for instance, a small handheld Internet appliance allows you to display and use a full-size virtual keyboard on any flat surface for those moments when you would prefer not to talk aloud to your networked computer."

One respondent was Google chief economist Hal Varian, who said: "The big problem with the cell phone is the (user interface), particularly on the data side. We are waiting for a breakthrough."

It's easier to read the report itself, which you can find here (PDF). This is Pew's third report in the series; further reading can be found in its 2005 first survey (PDF) and 2006 second survey (PDF).

[Perry_Clease]

"Step aside, keyboards, laptops, and 9-to-5 jobs. A survey of more than 1,000 Internet activists, journalists, and technologists released Sunday speculates that by 2012, those quaint relics of 20th century life will fade away."

The people who believe that will happen by 2012 will fade away long before the relics.

[jinx101a]

I agree with you. The keyboard will not be gone by 2012, no way, not even close. There are too many things that voice recognition aren't great at yet. Vista's voice recognition is good at dictation, it's good at commands but it's not useful for other tasks, like programming and detail oriented tasks like graphic design and movie editing (Dragon Dictate is in the same boat as the Vista Speech techonology).

I believe this will happen like I'm likely to store all of my files in the "cloud". Just not going to happen anytime soon.

[Imalittleteapot]

FTA: In addition 'haptic' technologies based on touch feedback have been fully developed, so, for instance, a small handheld Internet appliance allows you to display and use a full-size virtual keyboard on any flat surface for those moments when you would prefer not to talk aloud to your networked computer."

So in other words we'll still be using keyboards. They'll just be virtual ones. Which will work great until you need to reinstall Windows and can't type in your CD key or anything else because the built in virtual keyboard program isn't installed yet lol. Ok, just kidding. I already assumed keyboards would go virtual, but that's not exactly the same thing as eliminating the keyboard. Virtual keyboards are much cooler anyway. They have the potential to be customized to your specific task. Macro keys all around!

[jefu--2008]

typing on a flat, hard surface HURTS. this is why keyboards are not going away.

[Maccess]

Yep. Keyboards are not going to go away. there may be better keyboards in the future, but they're not going to go away. the only ones thinking and hoping they'll go away can't type, because once you know how to type, a keyboard is the best way to get thoughts out of your head--in many ways it's more efficient than speaking (and the guy in the next cubicle won't inadvertently hear what you're typing, unless he has one of those electronic eavesdropping devices, but that's a different story).

[bdaleypsu]

Can you imagine the repetitive stress injuries from pounding your fingers on a hard surface for hours a day?

[ddesy]

If anyone doesn't believe that typing on a flat surface hurts, I recommend they dig up an old Timex Sinclair 1000 and try typing on it.

Even a lot of the current keyboards don't exactly type as comfortably as the older ones. I find that the older designs with nice keyswitches rather than thin membranes make typing easier.

[unknown unknown]

If cellphones become the primary internet connection, I am done unless they under go so serious evolution. Cause right now the iPhone and T-Mobile's Android phone, who's name escapes me, are just toys.

[jinx101a]

Unless cell phone companies change their fee structures, there's no way this will happen. Those companies have always overcharged for little service. I mean, we're still paying 5-10 cents in a text message in some cases. The amount of data associated with that is miniscule at best... the only reason they can keep charging that is because they have a strangle hold on the network and the phones.... to this point.

[tm_anon]

If anyone's noticed what Apple's been doing lately with the no touch technology, virtual keyboards are a thing of the past, especially if the three technologies come together necessary to make a full virtual PC, namely; the no-touch technology, the "force-field" technology which I will link to, and the holographic display which I will also link to. With these three, why would anybody want a cell phone connected to the internet when you could carry around something more powerful, able to create an interface to your specifications on which you could do so much more. The future is only small if that's all you dream it to be.

[wshun0]

"why would anybody want a cell phone connected to the internet when you could carry around something more powerful?"

Maybe because it is much more expensive. Apple is not the indicator, Chinese manufacturers are. The future is only cheap if that's all you dream it to be.

[tm_anon]

http://cybershack.com/t.php/New+forcefield+technology+will+blow+your+mind
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-10114351-1.html?tag=mncol
http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/18572/page2/

[Mam00th]

http://www.engadget.com/2008/11/21/nokia-planning-touch-less-gesture-controlled-devices/

[Rants&Raves]

Fantastic links, tm_anon. Thanks for posting them !

[bdaleypsu]

Yeah, just like printing was supposed to become obsolete. Paper companies were panicking, now they're selling more paper than ever.

[BigGuns149]

Printing will never completely disappear (people will keep using paper long after holdable e-paper is better than dead tree paper in virtually every way), but paper is definitely in decline. The biggest thing keeping paper sales up are people dragging their feet from adopting digital documents.

With books the issues blocking ebooks often have more to do with licensing than technology.

There is a lot of anecdotally evidence that paper is starting to decline in importance. Newspapers are seeing sales decline left and right. Magazines are abandoning their print editions and going online only.

Even public schools, which are often far beyond the curve on technology are slowly moving away from paper.

While predictions that paper would become obsolete 10-20 years ago were pretty lofty predictions we are now starting to see the decline. I don't see paper disappearing anytime soon, but I wouldn't be surprised to see paper sales decline dramatically in the next 10 years.

As for keyboards I think the bigger issue is the lack of a compelling alternative. Voice recognition technology hasn't advanced dramatically in recent years and with a few exceptions most people aren't clamoring for voice recognition.

[Renegade Knight]

@BigGuns149

Paper does what digital can't. It's a universal format. Digital documents (and there is a big push for digital review where I work) has a lot of problems to overcome. One of which is the permanence of the digital format itself.

10 years is long enough to work out the bugs if the private sector (MicroSoft etc.) is on board.

[Pointedly]

There will always be a qualitative difference between the spoken word and the written word and, therefore, a qualitative difference between information entered via voice and via keyboard. I think improvements in visual communication will be the big draw in the future. Visuals are worth many words...no matter how those words were entered. Sure, there are times when I use text-oriented sites to obtain a quick list of news. Watching videos takes time. Making videos and doing visuals also takes time. It is part of the real reason many in acedemia (and elsewhere) so disdain the visual and stick with the written.

[dhavleak]

I confess -- I merely skimmed over the article -- and I didn't read the research paper links.

*However*

I find the claim that DRM will go away by 2012 to be absolute bollocks. To be clear -- DRM is more than just FairPlay in iTunes and PlaysForSure on Windows Media. It's any key management scheme used to control information -- whether it's a stream cipher used to encrypt streaming Netflix movies, HDCP to protect hidef content displayed on your TV, something to protect say audio books or e-books from being copied infinitely, encryption technologies to keep corporate documents secure, or encrypted email to keep private information private -- if anything, DRM is getting more pervasive all the time, and will continue to do so.

The thing I do agree about -- there are certain types of media (music being the obvious example) where the cost and inconvenience of DRM will weight so strongly against what DRM actually achieves that the market will force vendors to abandon DRM in those markets. But that doesn't mean that everything will go the same way as music.

[jhr77]

While the claims that keyboards my dissapear on phones is valid, perhaps the authors/surveyors forgot about the rest of the world that still sits in front of a computer for most of the day. I don't want to type with my thumbs, and as others have commented, I don't want to speak to my computer, as it comes out with different composure.

[streamOG]

dhavleak:

I agree it's total bollocks but it does create banner impressions to bag on DRM. CNet loves to bag on CDM even though their parent company CBS requires it on their media.

Not that they did not speak to one industry technologist or a Major Studio, Network or Label rep. Probably because they knew the answer would be that DRM is not going away just evolving.

Ad-supported models are not going to drive the content industry alone.

[philosfool]

Half the art of effective written communication lies is this: punctuating well. And you know what would really suck? Saying to your computer, "You know what would really suck question mark quote capitalize saying to your computer comma quote capitalize you know what would really suck period quote."

[ferricoxide]

Untill they're able to develop real, direct, man-machine interfaces (i.e., brain-wave readers), I don't see the keyboard going away anytime before then.

[bhrater]

I don't believe the keyboard will be leaving us very soon, remember the paperless office!
Mobile devices will or have already moved to touch, and people will be connecting with these devices more often and using them as their primary internet device.
But productivity will still rely on probably a notebook type device. Because as much as we try, we will still be typing documents, presentations, and spread sheets. They are not going away soon, and so neither is the keyboard. Perfect the tech and some will adapt, and some will not; that is the way it will go!

[clynx]

Data caps should go now not later as they will. And cellular companies who practice this insult should go too. Sooner than later.

[DarkBlak]

Don't get too carried away with this data. This is typical of a Pew study in that it is taken exclusively of people with a vested interest in the online medium. Of course they will say that the mobile and electronic mediums are superior to the "old, outdated" paper-based products. They've been spouting the same rhetoric for years and they still can't figure out how to make any of their dreams come true.
The key points have already been made before me here - the accuracy of typing just can't be met (yet) with any commercially viable alternative.

And philosfool, I LOVE your example!

[gsigas]

Keyboards are an unnatural interface and will definetly go away eventually (as the mainstream interface). The most natural interface is to talk, touch and gesture to the computer. The problem is that to do this effectively requires a very intelligent computer, so I doubt it will happen within the next 3 years (although I would love it if it did). 10 years is more likely.

[buddesatva]

The interface is the issue. I am curious as to what will replace human fingers on a keyboard. Moreover, I am stunned by the prospect that gibbering half thoughts will replace actual thought. LOL.

[AppleSuxLeo]

Apple will be the only company left with DRM.

[jinx101a]

They'll be making too much money from their keyboard alternative that we'll all have to have even if we have to mail it in and wait 3 weeks everytime there's a problem with it.