GM's Lutz: Volt needs high gas prices to be 'generalized'
The Chevy Volt may be the most exciting car coming from General Motors, but costs remain a barrier to wide-scale adoption, according to Bob Lutz, the company's vice chairman and design guru.
During a Web chat last week, Lutz said gasoline prices will need to go significantly higher in the U.S. before the car can become "generalized." His comments were reported on Thursday by GM-Volt.com, a site not affiliated with GM.
"The Volt technology is very exciting, but costs will have to come down before it can become generalized, and U.S. fuel prices will have to rise to world levels, meaning $5 or $6 per gallon," Lutz said. That was in response to a question about GM's plans to use the Volt power train, called Voltec, with other vehicles.
The first edition of the Volt, due late next year, will deliver a jump in fuel economy, offering over 100 miles per gallon. The car runs 40 miles on a large lithium ion battery and then uses a gasoline engine for longer trips.
GM executives have said before that this first-generation technology will be expensive--unconfirmed reports have put the price at about $40,000 before federal tax credits for plug-in electric vehicles.
The company is already working on bringing the costs down--particularly for the battery components--for the follow-on editions, according to the company.
Several automakers are betting on plug-in electric vehicles, which will start to come to market over the next year. This week's Frankfurt Motor Show showcased several electric and gas-electric concept cars.
Studies have shown that electric cars are less polluting than gasoline cars, particularly if vehicles are charged at off-peak times. They also allow more people to "fuel up" with a domestic source of energy.
But the high costs of battery components and range limitations of all-electric cars mean that plug-in electric vehicles will remain a small slice of the overall market, according to experts.
The Boston Consulting Group earlier this year released an analysis that predicted electric vehicles are likely to have 3 percent market share in 2020, compared to a projected 20 percent share for hybrid-electric vehicles.
An executive from Toyota, which has sold more than 2 million hybrid Priuses, said this week that it will take until 2020 before electric vehicles will be suitable for the "mass market."
Martin LaMonica is a senior writer for CNET's Green Tech blog. He started at CNET News in 2002, covering IT and Web development. Before that, he was executive editor at IT publication InfoWorld. E-mail Martin. 
The video looks a bit odd I must say. It seems stretched horizontally. In the meantime flash crashed so I can't watch it now to see if it gets better later on :)
Is it true the battery cost 20k to replace every 3-4 years????
Also, which battery? Prius battery? Volt battery? Whose battery? Type?
I want to be sure you are asking a real question, not using that question to stir up rumors and false information.
Here, straight from Toyota's mouth:
http://www.toyota.com/html/hybridsynergyview/2006/fall/battery.html
Canada's experience with Prius as a Taxi and its longevity.
http://www.hybridexperience.ca/Toyota_Prius.htm
I find GM's statement still unacceptable. Forget about gas prices, forget about excuses and start focusing on doing what is right for America and our consumers. The Volt costing $40,000? Why not produce a REAL hybrid first like that of the Ford Escape or the Toyota CAmry Hybrid? Why not something like the Highlander Hybrid?
Instead, they are producing a Volt, a smaller car, using technologies that they think will cost too much to be viable? Is this yet another attempt to sabotage the whole program?
GM was not friendly to any gas-saving technology and Lutz and Wagoner said as much as late as 2007. I do not trust what they are saying. If not for the livelihood of the workers, GM ought to just go bankrupt and the government ought to fund Tesla so it can make models for consumer purchase. At least Tesla is not complaining about gas prices.
GM recently announced the Volt battery system will have an 8 year warranty. By 2018, replacements should be much cheaper than today
This is the same thing the "green" con-artists are pushing, somehow with a straight face:
"This isn't economically feasible and can't compete honestly in the market, so have government Force everything else so expensive people have no choice but to choke down my product, making everyone poorer in the process."
I guess that's the new business model in the age of the looter...
If the price is going to be 5 bucks a gallon would you rather have nice roads for your money, or try to buy oil stock at the high prices they will command due to the record profits? I'd rather have a road if I'm gonig to pay 5 bucks anyway.
Your call.
Your premise would only work if the oil companies took the excess amount coming from a higher pump price and gave that back to the government to fund public transportation instead of, as they do now, simply pocket the profits.
Which do you think is more likely to happen- governments getting that money or the oil companies? The only way it could happen is if the government implemented a surcharge of $2-3 per gallon on top of existing prices, or raised taxes on fuel by 500-1000%+. Either action would be an election campaign killer and therefore never be done.
Think I will stick with a Toyota Prius?
What I notice is that people are interested in electric cars for just around town. Their present car may be just fine mileage wise for long trips. We don't need expensive and large cars for that. There are some sub $20K models supposedly coming on the market that would do but most people want a sub $10K solution. And they need to do decent speeds and have at least a 50 mile range. The GEM car which is glorified golf cart doesn't cut it because it has a slow top speed. Some folks around here had them but seemed to only use them briefly because of angry drivers following them on a 35 mph street at 25 mph.
I'm totally for a free market, but why allow the real costs to be shifted to others? The sooner we acknowledge these costs, the sooner we can move to a more sustainable energy supply.
Sell a Base Model volt that operates like the Prius. It would have less battery, and be less expensive. Make batteries an option so they can be added with the car if needed, or purchased later if needs change.
If they standardized batteries like we did for consumer electronics, flaslights, the battery makers could start competing. Then the energizer bunny could start selling the new V size auto battery. Toyota can make a V compartment for those who want to turn the Prius into a plug in hybrid.
First, if you are the average commuter who drives just under the specified 40 miles per day, you may NEVER need to buy gasoline to fuel your vehicle. This has been the plan from the very start in designing and engineering the Volt, and the biggest difference between the two different hybrid platforms.
Second, This is the basis for the "wild" mileage claims originally set forth by GM of 230 - 300 miles per gallon. The way the Volt hybrid system functions, is first and foremost as electric vehicle, with the small gasoline engine kicking in as a generator for the electrical system when mileage exceeds the 40 mile range. Don't drive 40 miles, don't use ANY gasoline at all. Simply plug in between trips and the electric drive train is recharged. Now, realistically, how do you put a miles per gallon rating on a system that functions in this manner? The EPA requires testing vehicles in "Real World" situations in the manner of which each vehicle been designed and engineered to functioned. This vehicle has been designed to RARELY and or INFREQUENTLY rely on the use of gasoline to provide energy for the vehicle. In reality, there could be drivers out there who commute 30 miles per day who will NEVER put a drop of gasoline in the vehicle under normal driving conditions.
Third, the technology behind designing the batteries that power the Volt was "non-existent" on a vehicle powerplant scale at the conception of this vehicle. Therefore, the systems being developed have ALL of the cost of research and development built into the selling price of the vehicle. Lithium-ion battery technology is in it's infancy, and prior to the development of the Volt, was primarily visible only in the form of household use batteries and the like. The advantage of Lithium-ion technology in vehicle application is in overall weight compared to the current Nickel battery technology. Fuel costs rising to World levels is simply the point at which enough consumers would have interest to switch to some form of hybrid technology. Once this happens, and sales increase, the cost of R&D is recovered, batteries are being mass produced, the technology permeates the market, and competition drives cost down. IN THEORY! In practice however, everyone knows that this is probably not going to happen and that this would just become a baseline figure for everyone else to hover around, with the former R&D monies going toward profit unfortunately.
To wrap up, I would like to point something out concerning the automotive consumer in the U.S. Now this is a generalization, and there are a LOT of people who are interested in Hybrid technology vehicles - but that being said, large vehicle sales (pick-up trucks, Full-Size SUVs, SUVs, etc...) were surpassed by the more fuel efficient offerings from car companies only during the few months when gas prices were driven above the $4 per galloon mark. Once fuel prices were reigned back in, large vehicle sales quickly recovered to their pre-$4 levels, and suddenly fuel-efficiency dropped by the way-side. Put simply, the ONLY time the desire for highly fuel efficient vehicles is in the public eye, is when gas prices are at their highest. This brings up a fundamental issue in the development and marketing an electric vehicle for ANY automotive manufacturer operating in the U.S. The vast majority of vehicle consumers don't care ENOUGH about the issue to warrant the production en masse of these vehicles. I think this will change with the younger generations now entering the market, but until sustained interest and demand is felt, these technologies for all automakers will be slow and reluctant to enter the mainstream market place at affordable price-points.
A big advantage of the series HEV is it can be based on a standardized EV chassis. Four versions are easily made, based on that chassis. A series HEV with a 5 kwh battery pack and a 50-100 kw engine/gen. A PHEV like the Volt, with a 16 kwh battery and a 30-80 kw engine/gen. An extended range BEV with a 30 kwh battery pack and a 10-20 kw engine/gen. Or a BEV with no generator.
I was talking to a friend the other day, and he brought up a good point though. Making an electric car will make it CONSIDERABLY more reliable. Think about it... and electric motor... transmission is gone... cooling system... all the complex belts, etc... braking is much easier and less complex (at least in reliability). Unless they build in faults, an electric car (other than batteries) should go a LONG time and need very little maintenance. I can't help but think the car companies are thinking about that in both pricing and resistance to going fully in this direction.
The 230 mpg ad campaign kind of turned it into a joke. Such a wild claim simply turns skeptics away from it, even if it is certainly better than other available options.... and will likely create disappointment in the people who do buy into it (rather than being happy they are getting more than they otherwise would have). Of course, then there is the ridiculous price-gouging for being green.
BUt right now, I think Ford is the place to look at with tradition hybrids, but aslo, I hope they bring out the Diesel power trains here. Oh man, one could only hope.
By "rise to world levels" he of course means "rise to the artificially-quadrupled prices found in Old Europe where the politicians are royalty and tax their subjects to death".
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You mean like politicians think they are now in this country?
Also, don't forget, these politicians are looking out for themselves, not us. You actually think they are wanting all electric, hybrids, or anything that will cut into the tax revenue they now gouge us with?
As anyone who has followed this Volt story can tell you, production is constantly being pushed into the distant future and now it seems it will be on a more constrained scale.
I was being sarcastic, I'm sure they would rather let the little guys have a go at the X prize as they probably spend that much on getting lunch for the board room boys in a week.
The mass production will be adjusted depending on initial market response.
Drop gas subsidies. To begin with, repay US Taxpayers for the two Gulf wars out of gas taxes or out of the base cost by requiring reimbursement from the oil companies. The true cost of gas and oil is vastly above that of electricity generated by alternatives such as photovoltaic or wind.
Shell in OC has diesel at $2.69 at the same time as reular at $3.09 !
"....According to UC Davis in a paper on the design and development of the UC Davis Future Truck, ... Panasonic NiMH would be about $220/kWh in automotive volume and last 1,750 cycles to 100% discharge. ... batteries themselves offer about 60 Wh/kg of specific capacity and 300 W/kg of specific power. They charge at roughly 85% efficiency..."
In the mid to late 1990s, Solectria's Force sedan with NiMH achieved about 200 miles per charge at highway speeds in a Tour De Sol rally and the Solectria Sunrise over 350 miles per charge in the same conditions. The GM EV1 with NiMH regularly achieved real world ranges of about 150 miles, and one example did 225 miles range pussyfooting it in a Tour De Sol Rally. The Toyota RAV4 EV, about 100 miles real world range, on a 26 kWh pack.
...Nickel based batteries tend to have a shelf life in decades, as evidenced by ...10 year old sets of Panasonic NiMH in some of the oldest operational RAV4 EVs.
The most senior vehicles in the RAV4 EV fleet are over 150,000 miles with little to no range loss so far. Southern California Edison had something like 6 module failures in over 3 million miles of fleet use.
To put this all in perspective, a small SUV with 100 miles range, should have a pack of roughly unlimited shelf life and at least 175,000 miles of usable life before it only has about 80% of its nominal cruising range in the optimistic scenario using UC Davis' figures. .... Real world data, with RAV4s lasting over 150k with little to no loss yet, seems to lean towards UC Davis' claims. However, there is a flaw in this since these RAV4s certainly aren't being cycled to 100% discharge all the time, and the shallower the typical discharge, the longer the pack will last. Extrapolate that to an aerodynamic Solectria Sunrise with 350 miles range, and in theory, you have between 336,000 miles pack life and 612,500 miles pack life.
A study by Cuenca and Gaines found that in mass production, a NiMH EV would achieve cost parity with comparable gasoline powered cars at about $1.30/gallon gas, factoring in battery replacement. This assumed I think 100,000 miles pack life. Gas hasn't been $1.30/gallon for years, and probably never will be again.
In contrast, today's 18650 size Li Ion lose about 20% capacity per year if abused and if it doesn't have a proper charging algorithm, doesn't have a good battery management system, and doesn't have good thermal manageemnt to keep temperature down and slow grid corrosion. If you do everything right with Li Ion, it should only degrade about 2-4% per year. Today's 18650s last about 500 cycles to 100% discharge. Tesla accordingly gives the battery pack for its 250 mile range roadster a 100,000 mile, 5 year warantee. My personal suspciaion is that the Tesla packs will last 125,000-150,000 miles and 10 years or so, before 80% of capacity remains.
In automotive volume, Argonne National Laboratories claims $250/kWh for Li Ion is possible...
Li Ion is generally about 150 Wh/kg specific capacity and 500 W/kg specific power. So per unit of weight, Li Ion has greater range and power than NiMH by far.
But compared to NiMH, as Doug mentioned, its cycle life costs and longevity leave much to be desired. As mentioned earlier, NiMH has cost parity at about $1.30/gallon gas, if it were produced in automotive volume. Li Ion, if produced in automotive volume at $250/kWh, and if life is say, 125,000 miles, would achieve cost parity with gas cars around $2.50-3.00/gallon. Not as good as NiMH, but looks to be competitive if mass produced. But that's if.
Both NiMH and Li Ion can be fast charged. Aerovironment has developed fast chargers in the 90s that could charge a NiMH pack from 0-80% in 30 minutes. ...
If Altair Nanobatteries claims are true, Li Ions that last 10,000 cycles and have a shelf life in decades like nickel based batteries do may be in fact reality today. ...claiming $400/kWh in automotive volume. A pack of these in any mass produced EV would thus be expensive... But that's a big if. Compared to Li Ion, NiMH is tried and true...But the situation for NiMH looks much better than LiIon, at least in regard to viability...."
"...So what has happened? Why can't we use large NiMH in our cars? Why can't I order a set for my Triumph GT6 and get 200+ miles highway range?
For starters, Cobasys just won't sell them to anyone but OEMs. But OEMs are refusing to mass produce EVs at this time. This effectively shuts this battery out of the market to any of the small companies willing to produce EVs and any hobbyists wanting access to this chemistry.
Panasonic, who met market demand for this chemistry, was sued after Chevron gained their stake in Ovonics from GM. Panasonic had an entirely different battery, but the courts didn't see things this way. If you look at the patents Ovonics has, you can see that they lay claim to 'A sealed prismatic metal hydride battery greater than 10 Ah in size'.
http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-bool.html&r=1&f=G&l=50&co1=AND&d=PTXT&s1=5558950.PN.&OS=PN/5558950&RS=PN/5558950
10 AH is the limit without infringing upon the patent. This is important, since if you charge NiMH in parallel, they will get horribly unbalanced and strings that reach the final charge voltage first will begin to draw more and more current until they go into thermal runaway. So the easy solution seems to just build a high voltage pack, right? You run into limitations on your pack voltage since the EV motors and control systems available are generally built to operate between as low as 48V and as high as 600V. 600V*10AH is only 6 kWh, hardly enough for even a decent PHEV.
When Cobasys is willing to license its large format NiMH, it is for non propulsion applications only.
www.ovonic.com/news_events/5_2_press_releases/20050601.htm(Go to archive.org and put the link in, as it's no longer up on Cobasys site)
The patent holder has a right to limit production if they are going to use the patent to sell the invention and gain from it. If they don't, they eventually have to let others access it. Engineers who design embedded systems know this all too well. Our patent system wasn't devised to suppress innovation, but to encourage it. What is being done with this patent is technically illegal, but no one is going to take Chevron or anyone else to task. In light of peak oil, resource wars, global warming, air pollution concerns, and others, you can thank the oil company for helping ensure we don't have EVs available.
There is another factor at play in why we don't have access to this battery. When Ovshinsky wanted to reveal to the public the capabilities of his invention, the auto industry and USABC was none too enthusiastic. The Big 3 in fact used the USABC to attempt to silence Ovshinsky. Michael Shnayerson writes in 'The Car that Could' Ovshinsky stated, 'They tried to stop us from going to California. They threatened us! I said to them, ?Look, the Communist Party no longer runs the world. A party line cannot be imposed upon people who don?t believe in it. The consortium is set up to make sure the American public has an electric car. It was not set up to fight the mandate. We are a battery company, and we?re not going to lie to the public!' Battery companies were bound by GM not to reveal to the public the advances in battery electric vehicle technology they had made.
Ovshinsky also remarked about the viability of his NiMH battery, 'The people who are saying that battery technology isn?t ready are absolutely wrong. It?s part of the party line. It?s self-perpetuating. It?s very sad. You tell a lie big enough and long enough, and people start to believe it. The fact of the matter is volume. That?s the only reason batteries are the cost that they are.'
Former ECD chairman Robert Stemple and UC Davis seemed to have agreed. In volume for 20,000 EVs per year, Stemple quoted $150/kWh in the 90s and UC Davis recently quoted $220/kWh in a 2003 technical report on the Futuretruck. ..."
- by ktswami September 20, 2009 8:12 PM PDT
- Interesting article, Martin, but I'm just going to say what everyone tippy-toe's around. Lutz is a PUTZ along with the rest of the GM bozo team. Always making excuses and hedging and moaning that they can't seem to offer any competitive cars.
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(32 Comments)They had their EV-1 & EV-2 (which had 163 miles range on one charge, btw) and they killed it to go along with the oil companies...meanwhile, the CEO of Toyota sank $2B into hybrid R&D with long-term thinking. That's what competent executives do: show vision, be a fearless leader, and change the game. (And the Prius is now about $23K, and the Honda hybrd is even less.)
Lutz knows how to thump his chest and jump around and be macho and talk about his helicopter and plane, but has he done anything except signing off on dumb cars that people bought out of patriotism? No.
GM had to get nationalized and we kept him on? Are you kidding me? Nader was grappling with these knuckleheads in 1959, for god's sake!! Expect more excuses as the Volt embarrasses us all further...