Electric-car race could strain lithium battery supply
The headlong rush to create electric cars for green-minded consumers may come with a significant economic and environmental cost.
Lithium ion batteries--the same used in electronic gadgets and laptops--have become the preferred battery type for plug-in hybrids and electric cars now starting to come to market.
That swelling demand has some industry observers concerned that there will be a shortage of the metal lithium, the material used to make the batteries.
"You can solve the transportation problem but end up creating an equally vexing commodity problem," said Matthew Nordan, president of emerging technology consulting firm Lux Research. "It's a big concern."
In the short term, auto companies will be able to bring plug-in hybrid cars to market as planned in the next few years. Production of lithium has increased since the 1990s to meet the demand for batteries in power tools and consumer electronics, said Brian Jaskula, the lithium mineral commodity specialist at the U.S. Geological Survey. Prices over the past few years have increased steadily as well, he said.
The white patch on the bottom of this NASA satellite image shows the Salar of Uyuni in Bolivia, considered a significant but unexploited deposit of lithium. Lake Titicaca is the large body of water to the north.
(Credit: NASA)Longer term, though, the picture is less clear. Batteries for cars are expensive, which is the biggest reason that plug-in electric cars cost more.
"Prices in the last couple of years have slowly gone up," Jaskula said. "But if the Chevy Volt and other cars like that become a big raging success and the demand really increases but supply doesn't keep up, then the price will go up obviously."
Whether or not a global run on lithium pans out as projected by the worriers, the situation highlights an underappreciated risk when it comes to alternative energy, namely securing supplies of natural resources. In other words, if some green technologies are successful in displacing fossil fuels, there could be shortages of materials that most people never heard of before.
"In all these newfangled clean technology applications, quite often the ones that appear to have strong growth potential face a challenge in that they are reliant on some material that has been in short use to date," said clean-tech venture capitalist Rob Day, a partner at @Ventures. "Possibly, they don't have enough supply to fulfill (growth) requirements."
Other examples include indium, a material used in a new generation of low-cost CIGS solar cells, and coatings on solar panels, Day said. And for several years, researchers have sought to come up with an alternative material for expensive platinum, which is used as a catalyst in fuel cells, noted Barbara Heydorn, who is director at the center of excellence in energy at science research nonprofit SRI International.
Eye on South America
Today, Toyota's Prius hybrid electric cars have nickel-metal hydride batteries. Because of improvements in weight and storage in lithium ion batteries, though, a number of auto manufacturers will be using them in plug-in hybrids expected to come to market in the next two years.
General Motors, for example, plans to use lithium ion batteries for the Volt and the Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid, both of which are expected in late 2010. Toyota, too, is planning cars with lithium ion batteries, but it is said to be researching zinc air batteries for vehicles as well.
Today, lithium is extracted from dried salt ponds or "salt flats." A briny liquid underneath the surface is pumped out and dried in the sun. The dried material can be made into lithium carbonate, which is later processed to make lithium.
There are widely divergent views on whether the existing producers of lithium--most located in South America and China--can keep pace with an onrush of hundreds of thousands or millions of new plug-in hybrid cars in the next few years.
Energy and transportation consultant William Tahil of Meridian International Research last year rekindled the supply debate in a paper, which was followed by another paper (PDF) issued in May.
He concluded that lithium supply will be absorbed largely by the fast-growing consumer electronics industry and that increased demand for lithium production will worsen relations between the U.S. and Latin America.
With continued 25 percent yearly growth in portable electronics, there would only be enough lithium carbonate for 1.5 million Chevy Volt-type vehicles by 2015 with "optimum production increases," according to Tahil.
The results of Tahil's studies are disputed. Geologist R. Keith Evan, for one, calculated worldwide reserves and concluded there is an abundance of lithium to meet electric-car demand.
Tahil counters that the total inventory of lithium does not reflect the increased mining cost of getting lithium from sources other than lithium carbonate.
In addition, further exploitation of the world's largest salt flat, the Salar de Atacama in Chile, and the development of new sites, such the large reserves in Bolivia, would cause substantial damage to those ecosystems, Tahil and the USGS's Jaskula said.
"The point is that electric cars are supposed to be environmentally friendly cars and there are many other materials such as zinc and iron...which don't require any more environmental degradation than has already been done," Tahil said in an interview.
Financial analyst Craig Irwin, who is vice president of energy storage and energy efficiency at Merriman Curhan Ford, indicated that projected lithium supply has not dampened enthusiasm for the technology. He noted that lithium can also be extracted from different materials, including the mineral spodumene.
"There are two highly polarized camps," Irwin said. "The processing technology (for spodumene) is not entirely mature yet, but I don't think it's an insurmountable challenge."
Representatives from lithium ion battery maker EnerDel did not respond to a request for comment before publication. Another well-regarded lithium ion battery company, A123 Systems, declined to comment because it is in a quiet period before its planned public offering.
Commodity rules apply
For economic reasons alone, some businesses are taking a strategic approach to effectively sourcing materials, like lithium, for alternative energy technologies.
General Electric recently assigned a research scientist the full-time job of studying sources of materials that are critical to GE, which is investing heavily in battery technologies for transportation and grid storage.
GE was caught "behind the curve" when one material used in its aircraft engines shot up in price, so it's now looking for other "pinch points," said Mark Little, director of GE's research labs.
"The ability to supply batteries, including the raw materials, from a national security standpoint is a valid question which we should be posing. I don't know the answer," said Glen Merfeld, manager of the Chemical Energy Systems Laboratory at GE Research.
Because lithium is a commodity like oil, the same economics apply, said Ripu Malhotra, associate director at the chemical science and technology laboratory at SRI International.
Limits of mineral supplies lead to higher prices and an incentive to accumulate bigger reserves, he said. And the higher prices will spur investment in new extraction technologies from unconventional sources. For example, the price of corn shot up to meet a surge in ethanol demand. Now, producers are developing methods to use alternative feedstocks, like wood chips and grasses.
"These are brand new markets. If it truly becomes a limiting factor, prices go up and we find new sources of material or ways to recycle the material," SRI International's Heydorn said.
Better Place, for example, plans to install battery-charging stations in Israel, Denmark, and Australia to jump-start a rapid transition to electric cars. But a lithium shortage will mean its ambitious plans would need to be scaled back, according to Nordan.
Speaking at recent conference, Project Better Place co-founder and adviser Andrey Zarur acknowledged that the company is "betting big time" that recycling technologies and alternative to lithium ion batteries will emerge in the coming years.
Lithium ion car battery-pack suppliers themselves will have plenty of business in the years to come if sales come close to projections. But that growth will affect commodity prices, Nordan predicts. It's also leading to stepped-up research into alternative battery chemistries, such as nickel-metal hydride variants, zinc air, and magnesium.
"There's a flowering of interest in battery technologies with abundant materials," Nordan said. "Abundant materials are the words of the day."
Martin LaMonica is a senior writer for CNET's Green Tech blog. He started at CNET News in 2002, covering IT and Web development. Before that, he was executive editor at IT publication InfoWorld. E-mail Martin.
I too would love one type of charger fits all solution
a Chevy Volt is designed for the characteristics of Lithium batteries. If you could have a battery with the same characteristics....but you won't, the other batteries would have different displacements.
months ago mentioned that they have no worries about future lithium supplies.Certainly in the next 5 to 10 years, unless battery prices decline, the number of electric cars on the roads simply won't be great enough to worry about lithium. A123 Systems estimates a price reduction of more than half over the next few years.
I think, this article was written for the upcoming IPO of A123/Continental, to assure the uneducated investors that extreme shortages means that A123 will surely be profitable. But there is no need to publish FUD about lithium, regardless. A123 would be successful if they can bring their much improved and safer Lithium ion batteries for the cars.
I would not go near the Chevy Volt, it is a fire hazard, they have had many fires trying to get it to work!
I would not go near the Chevy Volt, it is a fire hazard, they have had many fires trying to get it to work! That is why it is not out right now, the batteries start fires, or as GM calls them ?Thermo Events?, AKA your car would burn up! If they had not destroyed the EV technology they would not be in their current shape!
From GM they did a report on CBS 60 minutes last mointh
Do a search with GM Volt Thermo Events!
It is true that other earlier Li-ion batteries are prone to fires due to carbon based electrodes. But it has been a very long time (actually about three years) that advances in Lithium batteries have happened that completely eliminated the fire concerns about these batteries. For example, the A123 batteries can survive hard crashes, you can smash them with a hammer, and they get physically crushed without having fires or overheating. The other battery which GM has chosen is from LG Chem, to our dismay however. But GM's concern are not the batteries. The prototype batteries that GM have tested in the Volt have no mention of fires in all of their reports. So I am surprised that you made a sweeping generalization that there were fires with the Volt. There are no reports about that with their prototype batteries from LG Chem or A123.
But LG Chem's batteries are deemed safe enough by GM, and that the batteries are not their concern anymore. LG Chem's battery are less safer than A123's and have fewer life cycles than A123's, but primarily it is 1/3 or less than the price of equivalent A123 battery, and that is the primary reason why GM went with LG. If LG Chem's batteries are safe, then A123's are far safer, are more energy dense, and have a lot longer life, more than twice than LG. I hope A123 is able to bring their battery costs down, and they are working hard on it at the moment.
It's good to take the state from McCain, he needs some humility, after telling lies, slandering, liable, and enticing hate and fear, this will put him in his place, which is the losing column! McCain choice of Palin would make a complete joke of the Office of the President and Vice President!
Answer: Coal, Natural Gas, Nuclear, Wind, Solar or Crude Oil.
Comment: Why not power a car(or truck) with Natural Gas?
Major advantage of a power plant is that the pollution is point source and far easier to control than the individual cars emissions. For example, we can trap most of the carbon at the power plant, fed it to algae, or convert it into baking soda. It is far cheaper to outfit a few power plants with emission control devices than the millions of vehicles.
In fact it is the same with all the fossil fuels that ICE vehicles uses such as gasoline and diesel.
Why stick with nuclear fission materials or fossil fuels? Solar alone can supply all the electric needs of the world if we build enough solar powered electric plants. There are operational solar thermal plants that can supply electric power 24 x 7 using molten salt technology and can be built on quicker time and less price per capacity than nuclear fission reactors that always overran their initial estimates by 500% and takes 10 or more years to complete. Many other solar thermal plants are in the works. In conjunction with electric storage, technologies from Stirling Energy with their CSP have decreased the solar price to about $0.31/watt, from earlier CNET reports. All in all solar is here and now, truly free and nearly (sans production of panels or CSP) non-polluting, always renewable, and has gone down cheaply. And more advanced solar technology keeps on popping up, as well as their storage and more advanced batteries and super duper capacitors for ultimate quick charging.
You need an area that is less than a fraction of a percent of the area world's desert for solar power to supply all mankind's equivalent energy. That area is less than the size of Mojave desert.
Regarding your offhanded comment on 24/7 solar generation, the Moon reflects about 7% of the Sun's radiation back to earth. Have you ever noticed the difference in illumination between the night of a new and a full Moon? If you were to introduce another source of light at night, there would be a tremendous increase in the nighttime illumination. This doesn't even go into the fact that we need the lack of solar radiation at night for the Earth to cool itself and for winds to do their job.
The last thing we need is for some self proclaimed 'genius' environmentalist to propose a radical way to 'help' the Earth. If you believe that the Earth was here for billions of years before man, then how the hell do you believe over the course of less than 200 years we have screwed it up? I'm all for sustaining the Earth, but we have to take into account that the Earth will sustain itself and WE have to adapt to the changes, not change the Earth to adapt to us.
"""Answer: The overall efficiency of modern Natural Gas powered electric plants to power wheels of the modern lithium-ion nano iron phosphate cars is far better than the overall efficiency of distributing natural gas to each service station to power the wheels of a Compressed Natural Gas powered internal combustion engine (ICE) cars."""
So, if I have a CNG car and have Natural Gas as my home heating utility, then I should be able to fill up my car from my home dispensing unit and not have to go to a "service station". Is that not true?
By the way, I asked my Toyota salesman when they were going to start selling "lithium-ion nano iron phosphate" cars, he then asked for my phone number and said he would get back to me on that...no phone call yet. Still researching the Coal/Nuclear/Solar/Hydrogen/Methane/KittyLitter ICE. Oh, now I remember, the Oil Companies have invented these, but are preventing the public from knowing about these. They have PROFITS to protect.
What happens if there are many CNG vehicles out there. There will suddenly be strong demand for CNG. Expect its price to triple or quadruple in time, and so will your utility bills for heating and cooking using gas stoves. This is the ultimate dreams of natural gas companies.
It still doesn't change the fact that this is a fossil fuel that soon will also ran out, and will contribute tremendous amounts of Carbon Dioxide into the atmosphere.
And yes, you can get more advanced Lithium ion battery packs from eBay. Hymotion which uses A123 batteries are selling them between $8K-$16K installed on a Prius to give it a better electric miles range.
Aluminum, as used structurally, is not elemental either...it is an alloy just as steel is an alloy (pure aluminum is very soft and is unsuitable for structural uses). The difference is that the iron in steel more readily oxidizes into a brittle material (aka rust) at ambient temperatures than does aluminum (or the various other elements such as copper that are mixed with the aluminum). However, if heated, aluminum will readily decompose into an oxide as well (ever put a beer can into a camp fire?). While not generally a concern for the average strut or brace...when you start talking about engines being made of aluminum, or aircraft parts...that does become a consideration.
media manipulation as part of financial manipulation? hmmmm.
any action "may" have unintended consequence, therefore....
a liquid and transparent market is an essential market discipline, according to a new client, baltbear
From this site: http://lithiumabundance.blogspot.com/
"Posted by R. Keith Evans
Saturday, March 29, 2008
ABSTRACT
In 1976 a National Research Council Panel estimated that Western World lithium reserves and resources totaled 10.6 million tonnes as elemental lithium.
Subsequent discoveries, particularly in brines in the southern Andes and the plateaus of western China and Tibet have increased the tonnages significantly. Geothermal brines and lithium bearing clays add to the total.
This current estimate totals 28.4 million tonnes Li equivalent to more than 150.0 million tonnes of lithium carbonate of which nearly 14.0 million tonnes lithium (about 74.0 million tonnes of carbonate) are at active or proposed operations.
This can be compared with current demand for lithium chemicals which approximates to 84,000 tonnes as lithium carbonate equivalents (16,000 tonnes Li).
Concerns regarding lithium availability for hybrid or electric vehicle batteries or other foreseeable applications are unfounded. "
And another one by Mike, sorry, I lost the original link to my notes, but here's what he said:
"Currently around 20,000 tonnes of lithium are mined each year, meaning that the US Geological Survey's figure of 11 million tonnes equates to a reserve of centuries at today's usage. It occurs at around 50ppm in the crust, making it more common than lead or tin and about ten times as abundant as uranium (uranium, for comparison, has estimated reserves of 4 million tonnes). With increased demand and a rise in its price it is therefore reasonable to conclude that reserves will grow with time. Indeed, this is what the historical data show: an 8.4 million tonne reserve in 1996, 9.4 million tonnes in 2001, and 11 million tonnes in 2006.
In order to facilitate the necessary advances in battery technology and increased extraction of minerals such as lithium, we need to be encouraging the adoption of hybrid cars at a greater rate. As we discussed on a previous thread, these could reduce liquid fuel use in transportation by up to 50% alone and could be converted to plug-in hybrid vehicles (giving a projected 80% drop in l.f. use) at a later date when greater capacity batteries are available.
Your idea of small, localised "pods" is a comforting fallback option when considering the problems caused by peak oil. Indeed, it is already occuring in the UK in a small way as people are moving back into the city centres in increasing numbers. However, the loss of freedom, mobility and choice inherent in the scheme makes it a far less desirable way of life than the one we currently enjoy. Speaking personally, I would give up many other things before sacrificing my car. Thankfully, technology may mean I won't have to. :) "
My only conclusion is that with respect to known very cheap and easy to extract lithium mines maybe in short supply, but there will be more prospectors, and there is too much abundance of lithium to really worry about it. The salt flats where drainage water concentrate and dry out have higher concentrations of Lithium, aside from the normally mined deposits. You can look at the data where oil drillers took samples of the earth, they sure knows where there are concentrated deposits of Lithium. Perhaps, they could be hoarding the information so that they can mine for it themselves. Let the tsunami type demand come, and more will be mined if such demand will outstrip the current and newly found reserves, it has never been and will never be a problem.
But then again, why should we limit ourselves with lithium batteries? There are many ultracapacitors that are coming soon, and I am not banking on EESTOR's claims. Truly there are many that are undergoing rapid development.
Already, you can find them in small tools market, such as those made by Coleman:
http://www.colemanflashcellscrewdriver.com/
This is a cordless ultracapacitor based screw driver that can be recharged in 90 seconds, and has a lifetime of 500,000 cycles!
Unlike lithium batteries, the energy stored in ultracapacitors do not degrade as fast as batteries. Imagine the potential, the ultracapacitor whose energy doesn't degrade significantly when in standby for a long time, and can be recharged half a million times.
The screwdriver is being sold for around $80, and yet you save the equivalent of 499,999 C or D sized batteries.
These are just small tools for now and they are moving towards powering vehicles. So Lithium batteries are not the only potential storage devices, although Lithium batteries continue to advance to be even better and safer.
Where do you get your information from? Iron is elemental, but still rusts (Ferrous and Ferric oxides). It is not the property of being an element or a compound (or alloy, or amalgam, or mixture ....) It is the property of being "inert" in the conditions it is meant to work in.
Never heard of diamonds degrading into graphite - atleast not at room temperature conditions. Diamond is the hardest known material on earth as well as having the highest scratch factor. Extremely stable material. There is a reason why they say "A diamond is forever".
Aluminum is made of aluminum, perhaps with aluminum oxide at the exterior of aluminum metal sheets or bars because aluminum easily oxidizes with air if it is not coated. Fortunately the aluminum oxide forms a very good coating, and when it forms crystals of it, is called corundum, which can be used to cut diamonds.
For example, the Aptera, needs 80 watt hour per mile on an average driving profile. If you're on tiered one pricing, that would be a penny per mile. So if the average ice car is 24 mpg, gasoline should cost below $0.24/gallon to shelve the Aptera. If you drive a Prius, the gasoline should cost below $0.45/gallon to shelve the Aptera.
Do you think that gasoline will ever drop below $1/gallon? I don't think so! The electric vehicles like Aptera will be here to stay.
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by Joe Real
October 31, 2008 10:05 PM PDT
- Price of gasoline would have to go down below $0.45/gallon for most of the electric cars, including the extended range electric vehicles, to be shelved.
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Reply to this comment
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Showing 1 of 2 pages (50 Comments)For example, the Aptera, needs 80 watt hour per mile on an average driving profile. If you're on tiered one pricing, that would be a penny per mile. So if the average ice car is 24 mpg, gasoline should cost below $0.24/gallon to shelve the Aptera. If you drive a Prius, the gasoline should cost below $0.45/gallon to shelve the Aptera.
Do you think that gasoline will ever drop below $1/gallon? I don't think so! The electric vehicles like Aptera will be here to stay.