Microsoft's Project Natal: What does it mean for game industry?
Microsoft stunned the video game world on Monday with the announcement of its forthcoming 'Project Natal' technology, full-body motion-sensitive technology that should allow gamers to do what they want without holding on to any hardware.
(Credit: Daniel Terdiman/CNET)LOS ANGELES--For those of you who have been waiting for some really big news to come out of the video game industry, Microsoft answered your call Monday with its innovative "Project Natal," a hands-free motion-sensitive controller system.
Announced during Microsoft's annual E3 press conference, Project Natal seems almost certainly to be the culmination of several years of work by an Israeli start-up called 3DV Systems, which Microsoft recently acquired.
The technology, as demonstrated (see video below), appears geared toward allowing users to control games, movies, and anything else on their Xbox system with their hands alone, and without touching any hardware.
A prototype of 3DV Systems' motion-sensitive video camera, the technology that is most likely behind Microsoft's Project Natal, which it announced at E3 on Monday.
(Credit: Jared Kohler/CNET)Now, in what is clearly an attempt by the Xbox maker to significantly broaden the potential reach of the console and its Internet component, Xbox Live, Microsoft is betting that it can finally impress many of the millions of people who would never, ever consider themselves gamers but who somehow ended up with a Nintendo Wii in their homes.
How did Nintendo manage to break that barrier? By building a new-style motion-sensitive controller system that allowed users to direct game action by waving the controller around. To swing an in-game tennis racket, you swing the so-called Wii-mote like a tennis racket. To play a bowling game, you swing the Wii-mote in a bowling motion.
Natal, by comparison, provides much of that same functionality, but without having to hold on to the controller. Want to kick a ball in a game? Then make a kicking motion. Want to buzz in in a game show setting? Smack your fist into your hand. Want to share a drawing with an in-game avatar? Draw it and then hold it up to the Natal camera. As seen on-stage at E3, at least, it's all very simple, and very seamless.
So is Project Natal Microsoft's answer to the Wii-mote?
"And beyond, yeah," said Forrester principal analyst Paul Jackson. "Obviously, we've all got, in the game industry...a huge debt to pay to Nintendo for shaking things up a bit with the Wii, and for moving beyond the 37 button controller. This is taking things to the next extreme. Because even with the Wii, you still have (several) buttons, start and select. It's still a physical controller."
Added Jackson, Project Natal looks likely to "remove that final barrier between you sitting in your room and...what's on your screen."
Even given all that, however, a successful Natal launch is unlikely to knock Nintendo from the top of the next-generation console perch. The Wii's install base is huge, loyal and, in many cases, wary of Microsoft. And at the same time, one would have to expect that Sony, too, will be trying to get on the board with a full-scale motion-sensitive system.
Too early to tell
While there's no doubt that Microsoft caught everyone's attention with the Project Natal announcement, it's by no means certain that it will be a business success. For one, the company gave no indication of when the technology would be in users' hands. Nor did Microsoft say whether it would be sold as an Xbox accessory or be bundled with the console.
Microsoft Xbox Senior Vice President Don Mattrick did state that Project Natal would be compatible with every Xbox 360. But he didn't address how much it would cost, or whether it would be backward compatible with older Xbox 360 games. And afterward, Microsoft could not provide any additional details about the technology.
What this all means, then, is that while it's very clear Microsoft has some seriously cool technology on its hands, there's no way to judge--based on what we know right now, at least--whether Microsoft can successfully integrate Natal into its larger Xbox ecosystem. Still, given the company's deep pockets, and its traditional dedication to making new technology dominant, no matter how long it takes, I'd bet on Bill Gates & Co., having a winner with this one.
For one thing, Microsoft will finally have a response to the question of whether it can truly reach the mainstream. At the same time, however, it must find a way to attract that new audience while not alienating its core audience.
That's why Jackson said that no matter what happens with Natal, Microsoft is unlikely to abandon its traditional controller. It has to keep those core gamers, the ones who simply have to have their regular "Halo 3" gaming sessions, happy.
Jackson predicted that initially, Microsoft will sell Natal--or whatever it's called upon its release--in the $99 range. He pointed out that traditional controller systems come in the $50 range, but that Microsoft is going to have to pack some serious high-tech into Natal--a motion sensor, sophisticated directional microphones and video cameras.
SDKs begin arriving
On-stage at E3, Mattrick said that the Project Natal software development kits had just gone out. This means that while most of the video game world is in Los Angeles this week for the show, few people have had a chance to see it.
One who did get a sneak peek at Natal is Epic Games Design Director Cliff Bleszinski, the visionary behind "Gears of War."
"I had a chance to be hands-on with (Natal) a couple weeks ago," Bleszinski told CNET News, "and it was damned fun." But even Bleszinski said he hadn't gotten his hands on a SDK yet, and wasn't able to say anything about the development process.
Director Steven Spielberg came on-stage during the press briefing to praise Microsoft's approach to the mainstream audience with Project Natal.
(Credit: Daniel Terdiman/CNET)And while one should always take what is said during a press conference with a grain of salt, one would think that someone like legendary film director Steven Spielberg wouldn't heap praise on anyone or anything unless he really meant it. And when he came on-stage during the briefing Monday, heap praise on Natal is exactly what he did.
"I've been asking the crucial question: how can interactive entertainment become as approachable as other forms of entertainment?" Spielberg said. "The vast majority of people are just too intimidated to pick up a video game controller...Despite the size of (the video game) industry, still 60 percent of households do not own a video game console...The only way to bring interactive entertainment to everybody is to make it invisible."
So now we wait. Jackson said given the time frame of the SDKs and how long it takes developers to bring games to market, it would be unlikely that we would see Natal in gamers' hands before the middle of next year. In fact, given that time frame, E3 2010 may be a perfect place for Microsoft to formally launch the technology.
And whether it chooses to do so, it seems guaranteed that when Microsoft takes the stage for its E3 2010 press briefing, it will have some very big news in its pocket.
Daniel Terdiman is a staff writer at CNET News covering games, Net culture, and everything in between. E-mail Daniel. 
Utterly amazing.
You have to give it to Microsoft: their customers back them up no matter the perils (RROD) or shameless copycat moves (the new Mii-like avatars and body gyration game controls).
{CNET editor's note: Personal attack deleted.]
...until Nintendo wiped the floor with the XBox in sales, that is.
Now we see this, and (as seen by the howling response you got so far, and quick peeks about the gaming world's websites) the fanboys are apparently all slobbering to get their hands on one, thinking it to be the greatest thing since the invention of fire (the funny part is, even the MSFT PR flack was man enough to give credit where credit was due... pity that the company's legions of zealous fanboys can't bring themselves to do the same, eh? *snicker*.)
Now suddenly it's all about getting away from the hand-held controller and flapping your arms around. Heh.
I'm guessing that, true to Microsoft fashion, the accessory will end up costing you almost half as much as the console did (at least, judging by the pricing they slapped on separate HD-DVD players, hard drive upgrades, etc etc).
'course, nobody mentioned how many games will work with the thing...
"You have to give it to Microsoft: their customers back them up no matter the perils (RROD)"
Well, there is an easier way to sum it up:
"Thank you Sir, may I have another!?"
1) As a hardcore gamer & 360 owner, I'm happy that this will help sell more of the consoles that I love since it's an answer to the Wii. That consistent enough for you?
2) Nobody in the article, nobody in the release, nobody at E3 said anything about hardcore gaming and Natal. Only you.
3) I'm still willing to be surprised. Natal *or the Wii* or even both could come out with hardcore motion-based games. You never know.
The more I think about it, the more asinine your comment sounded.
A hardcore game could very well decide that the Xbox 360 is *the* game console for them. That doesn't preclude MS from going after the Wii's territory, does it? Just because the Xbox currently caters to hardcore games, that doesn't mean MS's ambitions should stop there, does it?
Because the 360 has vastly more AAA hardcore games than the Wii, and it shows in sales of hardcore games like CoD4, WaW etc, which sell vastly more on the 360 than on the Wii.
Let's face it, the Wii is the home of cheap shovelware.
Even THQ, which was one of the first to release lots of games on the Wii, thinks the Wii is full of shovelware:
THQ's SVP of Creative Development Danny Bilson:
"Wii is a 'Nightmare' for Third Parties
And then the nightmare of all for third parties, frankly, is the Wii. The Wii is a Monopoly box in a closet! I've got my Wii Sports and I'm good! I take it out, get the family around, we flail around for a couple hours, and we're happy until next month when we take it out, or maybe for junior's birthday, I'm going to buy him a Mario game."
"Here's the deal: there is so much junk on the Wii that if you add up all the numbers of those hundreds of SKUs, I'm sure you can cough up some number that's impressive"
http://www.industrygamers.com/news/wii-is-a-nightmare-for-third-parties-says-thq-exec/
Declaring the Wii has won, is like decarling you've won a marathon, after being in the lead at the 5 mile mark
There is plenty of fighting left to be done in this generation, which could last the next 6 years at least(if the PS2 is any indication). Wii sales fave fallen by over 50% in Japan and the US in recent months, as compared to last year's levels.
@ CDubber:" Microsoft comes up with its own arm-flapping equivalent and the Xbox'ers are proclaiming it as the salvation of video gaming.
Utterly amazing."
Calling the bleeding edge technology in Project Nepal, the "equivalent" of the decidedly low-tech Wiimote, is like calling a a jet plane the equivalent of horse drawn carriage . They are not even on the same planet.
Microsoft has blown Nintendo's technology out of the water with this one.
Given how long Microsoft Research has been working on this technology before they finally got it to work, I'd say a very long time. Logitech i n t exactly known as one of the powerhouses of basic research on the planet are they?
@ Maccess :" Maybe sooner than you'd think."
More likely much longer than you think. This is bleeding edge technology we are talking about here.
@ Maccess :" There already is available Mac, PC, and Linux software that uses the computer's webcam for control."
Using a webcam for control some PC, and being ale to actualy develop the stunning Nepal technology that Peter Molyneaux demoed at E3 yesterday, are 2 totally different things.
Why wait for this? This is just a slight improvement over what Sony did with the Eye Toy (remember that) years ago.
that 40 percent had no trouble eventually clicking on "buy it now" buttons on a keyboard when they were offered something they wanted.
its not the imput, its what you get OUT of a product that has always mattered....
anyhow.
It was fun for a time sure but it got old fast. The thing about the Wii is that you actually go through the motions with a controller rather then just pretending your bowling or shooting an enemy.
Microsoft can run the Big N out of town with community through Live and quality games. Sure Nintendo has more units sold but how many people are actually playing the system all the time? Where are the good games for the Wii?
Nintendo has the edge over the motion sensor tech because that is what the console is built on. Also it is not what the Wii is advertising though, the Wii is about "anyone can play video games". Dragging the market into a different direction where the 21-36 age group is the norm for Sony and Microsoft.
This is the best part. I could substitute the controller for something real. E.g. my tennis racquet instead of the just the handle (wiimote) ;)
Just think about the number of fitness games that can be developed and upgraded to without buying all those extra acce$$ories.
...because everyone knows that the smartest thing you could ever do is to give a 10-year-old kid a *real* golf club or tennis racket to swing around at full tilt in your living room...
Well it won't mean a damn thing if they over price it. IMO if it's priced over $150 then its destined to fail I think.
$100-125 is probably the sweet spot if the end product ends up working as well as they show it in the PR demo videos.
I don't think MS will be on the favorable side of the price equation.. they'll need compelling experiences to drive this.
I with the 360 already struggleing to keep up with ps3, and all the extra processing this takes, I think we can spell the end of graphical improvement on the 360 for a while.
In face they will probably have to decrease the graphics to free up processing for this.
Many companies make cars, TV's, clothing, Microwaves or computers, do you accuse all them of not innovating? We all benefit when multiple companies make similiar products and try to improve upon each other. Innovation is not just about being the first. Innovation is more about doing things better and actually getting it into the hands of the public.
Just trust me, bad idea.
And no, I'm not an MS fanboy. I'm one of the minority who thought they broke antitrust laws and was not punished enough by US regulators.
I bet in a Tesla Roadster article you'd write "(cough) GM EV1 (cough)"
They could have just bought up Nintendo...lol.
the very nature of the motion controls make them a novelty. intense games require efficiency & precision. motion controls are the opposite of efficient or precise.
it's the Minority Report fallacy... why would i want to control my computer by waving my arms all over the place when i could do exactly the same thing by BARELY moving my mouse hand?
Why not?
Nepal can do anything the Wiimote can do and a heck of a lot more, and those games that most Wii owners buy like wii Play, Wii Sports and wii Fit, are easy enough to make. Today alone, both EA and Ubisoft demoed their own fitness games at E3. As a matter of fact, Ubisoft is coming out with it;s own fitness game that uses a camera at the end of the year.
@ phatose :" Aftermarket add on gizmos tend to do very poorly"
Guitar Hero and Rock Band say "Hello".
Both games have more aftermarket add on's than any other game, and stlil managed to sell millions of both the games software and the hardware add on accessories.
It's all going to depend on how compelling the games are, that Microsoft bundles with Napal hardware. I am sure Microsoft is quite aware of that, and are working hard on the matter as we speak.
First off, it's "Natal", not "Nepal"... wipe the slobber up off your chin, please. ;)
Second, the guy is right: You simply cannot justify (especially in this economy) a game accessory, especially one that costs at least half as much again as the base console cost. See also "HD-DVD players" if you want a relevant example. ;)
If you've read this far, thanks for hearing me out and appreciate what you have.
Eyetoy is not even on the same universe, let alone the same planet as Project Nepal. It's like comparing kindergartern to a PhD.
I suggest you have another loook at the demos of Project Nepal shown at E3 last night.
@zappaz123:"It is the same technology as Sony's EyeToy but with better demo games"
You are not even close. Stop talking about stuff you know nothing about.
@zappaz123:" Both Sony and MS licensed the gesture technology from gesturetek"
Wrong again. this technology was devvelopped internally by Microsoft Research, and it took them nearly a decade to get it this good.
http://research.microsoft.com/apps/dp/search.aspx?q=motion+control&x=13&y=23#p=1&ps=36&so=1&sb=&fr=&to=&fd=&td=&rt=&f=&a=&pn=motion+control&pa=&pd=
If Sony/Nintendo wants anything even close to this technology, they are gonna have to pour resources into it, like Microsoft did.
@zappaz123:"So nothing prevent Sony from releasing an updated EyeToy to match what MS is developing "
A high barrier to entry will do that every time. This is no cheap wiimote.
I am commenting on the core technology which is "no controller". This is implemented by the depth camera and the motion detection algorithms. Of course what MS have done is way better than EyeToy. But the key patents are not being hold by MS but by GestureTek. If MS invented everything, why did they bother licensing GestureTek's technology. Think you are they one who doesn't know what you are talking about.
The difference is that the PS Eye is here NOW, the EyePet software will arrive SOON, while Natal (not ******* "nepal") has a few years still before it will appear. I bet even Sony's approach - the high-precision "wands" - will appear before then, and they use the preexisting camera not a new one like Natal does.
- by Collin1000 June 1, 2009 11:33 PM PDT
- Reminds me way too much of EyeToy.....
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- by Kwasiowusu June 2, 2009 12:25 AM PDT
- @ Collin1000 :"Reminds me way too much of EyeToy....."
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Showing 1 of 4 pages (118 Comments)Eyetoy is not even on the same universe, let alone the same planet as Project Nepal. It's like comparing kindergartern to a PhD.
I suggest you have another loook at the awesome, revolutionary, ground breaking demos of Project Nepal shown at E3 last night.