Curtains for desktops? If not now, when?
It's hard to remember the last time I bought a desktop computer. Sometime back in the stone age, I suppose, when vendors still bundled the machines with CRT screens.
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My back-of-the-envelope tally of friends and colleagues turns up the same taste trend. Few say they plan to spend money on desktops any more. Those who do say it's because they need the bigger computer for serious gaming applications. I hang with a crowd of early adaptors, but it's not just the predilections of the double soy nonfat latte crowd. Now the statistics are starting to bear out the anecdotal evidence.
One of the big surprises out of Intel's second quarter numbers is that for the first time, demand for notebook processors outstripped the company's product sales for desktop machines. Everyone expected this would happen one day, but the future just got here a lot faster than most folks--including Intel--ever assumed.
And that occurred even without big sales of Atom processors, which Intel debuted in the second quarter. These chips are geared for what Intel describes as Internet-centric "netbook" and "nettop" alternatives to current notebooks and desktops. Truth be told, though, it's still not clear how much impact Atom will have. Witness CEO Paul Otellini's seeming putdown of his own product: "(Atom) is less than a third the performance of our Centrino (processor). You're dealing with something that most of us wouldn't use," he said.
But enough computer shoppers, here and abroad, will be buying increasing numbers of these and other notebook computers. The second-quarter news Intel reported about notebook sales was not an anomaly. The trend will continue until the popularity of notebooks get eclipsed by even smaller devices. None of this suggests that the curtain is about to close on the era of big desktop PCs imminently. But "Let's get small" has become more than just a mantra for the future. It's now the present.
Charles Cooper has covered technology and business for more than 25 years. Before joining CNET News, he worked at the Associated Press, Computer & Software News, Computer Shopper, PC Week, and ZDNet. E-mail Charlie. 
If you want to see those beautiful flash animations, 3D visualizations and slick movies put together with sophisticated software, the laptop just doesn't cut it. Even when they improve head over heels over the last generation of chips, the next generation of desktop CPUs are still far better in measure of speed.
That is actually happening with the "masses." people are finally realizing that they don't need bleeding edge speed to brows the web and open word. I think thats where the changes in shipment volumes are noticable.
It reminds me of when people told me "Wireless is going to make Wired obselete. In just a few years, it'll be just as fast." Oh I laugh at people now, with their WiFi, limited to just a few rooms because of singal quality. Meanwhile, I'm limited to Wired with just a few rooms because of cabling, but gee mine is a ton faster. I love copying files infront of Wifi users =p
The funadmental limit is going to be when computers can simply output more than our senses can take advantage of. When that happens, the only use for the extra power is going to be orginization of data, which is rapidly being deligated to servers. The notebook will have its day.
meanwhile, anyone know of a notebook which supports twin 21" LCD monitors? Thought not. **goes back to his dual screen setup**
Amazing
I personally use both at home and at work. I would never give up my desktop, it makes a great media center pc for my lcd tv!
We could well be heading to a world where "computer" is a term we don't use that often. We'll refer to what each device does so, and the fact that they each have similar chips inside will be of little consequence.
Always and never are absolutes. Can anyone be absolutely sure that desktops will always be around? History tells us two things: First, change is absolutely assured. Second, technology which is relevant today may be rendered irrelevant and obsolete in the future as we undergo change.
One cannot even go so far as to assert that a universally useful invention such as the wheel will always be around. However, one could accurately make such an assertion if he qualifies it by saying, "...as long as humans exist and their intellectual capacity remains high enough to understand wheels."
Back to desktops: as long as computing exists, there will probably always be a more portable array of tools, and a less portable array of more computationally powerful tools. What form they take on in the longrun is impossible to say though. I'm sure we have not fully considered the possibilities. In 1968 when the HAL2000 was conceived, with an estimated delivery date of the year 2000, it bore little resemblance and even less relevance to what was going on in computing by the time 2000 actually rolled around. And many technologies have been invented, and even retired in the 32 years between the conception of HAL, and the passing of its conceptualized service date.
Someday desktops certainly won't be around. But it is unlikely that when that day comes, laptops will be their most direct replacement.
Back to the original article: In the here and now of market trends, it's not surprising that laptops have become so popular, and have eroded market share from desktops. In my home, I personally prefer having a laptop, a network, and a network attached storage device. The laptop gives me portability, and the NAS gives me one of the primary thing that portability robs me of: limitless storage capacity. The other thing that portability takes from me is computational performance (aka, speed). Here is where a lot of people are finding that the technological state of the art for hardware has outpaced the needs of most software applications. There are niches where more powerful hardware is required by individuals; games is probably the most relevant to the home market, but there are other computational intensive tasks too. Photo editing is still more pleasurable on a faster machine, as is video editing. But notebooks are at least usable in this regard, and at most more than adequate. Consumers are learning that unless they have a niche need, they don't mind the tradeoffs that notebooks bring. Thus, trends are shifting in that direction for now.
I have a dual core 17" Dell laptop with an NVidia GPU, 2GB RAM and 7200RPM drive. Its faster than most desktops - given I paid a little extra for faster components but not much... The Laptop to desktop price delta has shrank quickly over the last 2 years and will continue to do so.
I will never own a desktop for personal use again. Reasons:
- Portability (I dont have to copy files back and forth between multiple locations)
- Performance (stated above - my laptop rocks)
- Freedom (I can sit on my deck and do almost anything - or sit at the lake with my Sprint data card)
- Space (why do I need something the size of a mini-fridge taking up space - ok, exaggeration)
I see most PC/Laptop tech as disposable moving forward. I haven't upgraded PC components forever i.e. graphics cards, sound cards, etc - when I can buy a new rockin' laptop for under $1500 - why should I waste my time???
Having spent many years in the business world interfacing with IT people, I would NEVER buy laptops for a regular business environment. A desktop stays put while a laptop does not.
I guess interfacing with IT makes you an expert. While I agree some environments lend themselves to laptops, many more do not. Call centers, manufacturing, shared systems, etc. call for inexpensive, utilitarian desktops. Also, the ergonomics are much better for desktops.
As to the actual debate, for the average user, either will suffice, but you will usually pay a premium for the mobility in reduced performance and/or increased cost.
One of the core problems with laptops, are when you *want* to use them at a desk with an external monitor and the lack of true digital outs on today's laptops (DVI-D, DisplayPort) ties your hands. HDMI is a poor substitute.
- by gnagata July 16, 2008 9:31 PM PDT
- In reply to many comments that strongly push the desktop for business environments, I'd like to point out that more companies are shifting from desktop to laptop, to save the fixed cost of people sitting at their desks in the fixed offices.
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Showing 1 of 2 pages (30 Comments)With the development of wireless connectivity, SSL/VPN connection, messaging and collaboration tools, many companies do not need their employees to come to work. Rather, they can have the employees work from their homes, hotels or their nearest starbucks. Gone are the days where the companies need to pay for one cubicle per employee, and the area of office space per employee is shrinking very quickly.
The one-time cost advantage of buying a desktop over laptop is a few hundred dollars. Imagine the monthly cost advantage of cutting down office cubicles by 50%. If you're a CEO/CFO/COO, which would you rather choose?
I've personally shifted from desktop/laptop combination to laptop/laptop combination in the past four years. That said, as long as there are special video/gaming/audio/DTP etc. needs that need to be fulfilled, I still don't think there'll be a curtain call for the desktop, at least not in the next few years.
-george from Japan