Microsoft's pre-iPhone 'salute' to Apple

Apple fan boys (and girls) are counting down the days before Worldwide Developers Conference on Monday. Everyone and their mother-in-law expects Steve Jobs to use his keynote at the event introduce new iPhones, including new 3G models and a less expensive refresh of the 2.5G version.

Microsoft marked the occasion with a reminder to Windows Mobile partners that the company "will sell nearly 20 million Windows Mobile smartphone licenses."

In an e-mail, Andy Lees Sr., the company's vice president of Mobile Communications, heralded this as a "milestone" adding that year-over-year Q1 unit growth in Windows Mobile "was greater than sales of Apple's iPhone."

But not so fast. The reliably excellent Todd Bishop at Seattlepi.com spotted this little scooplet:

Microsoft said it expected to sell "more than 20 million" Windows Mobile licenses in the current fiscal year, which concludes at the end of this month. In today's letter, Microsoft's Andy Lees instead says the company "will sell nearly 20 million Windows Mobile smartphone licenses."

He's right. On February 10, Microsoft issued a press release where the company offered that prediction for fiscal 2008.

Scott Rockfeld, group product manager in the Mobile Communications business, downplayed the apparent contradiction.

"The way to look at this was that this was definitely a casual reference in a thank you letter," he said. "It shouldn't be seen as anything more significant. We've always said we'd be at 20 million. That's our goal. If it comes up short, it really, truly is a rounding error."

"Ultimately," he continued, "it's just a great time to reach out to our partners...there's a lot of misinformation out there. The reality is that when you look at the numbers, we're outselling RIM and significantly outselling Apple...it was just time to reach out and say, 'Hey guys, we've done amazing things the last six years and there's going to be no ceasing of our innovation in the future.'"

[dctrafik]

Kudos to Microsoft for that one.
As an EARLY (1st week) adopter of the iPhone, and someone who loves a lot about it, Frankly it is NOT really that amazing.
I read this blog often and am frankly shocked at how many people just blindly praise and chase after the iphone.
3/4 of my office have blackberry's or windows mobile smartphones and they are way more functional day to day devices then my iphone. I mean I can't even FORWARD a text on this thing. OR COPY/PASTE. how hard is that to add?
If that is not fixed with this new release next week, I am going back to a windows mobile device or jumping to a blackberry.

[chotty]

"3/4 of my office have blackberry's or windows mobile smartphones and they are way more functional day to day devices then my iphone".
**It's "THAN" my iPhone, not "THEN". Enjoy the Crackberry.

[ctekjeff]

My wife has had the iPhone since it came out and has made great use of it. Work just gave her a bberry and she laments having to use it, at least for now. The thing about the iPhone for her was always "AND it's a phone, too." All the other pieces get used and so does the phone. She has turned it into a useful tool rather than just a communication device to haul around and not use any minutes. The software integration and ease of use along with the simple and beautiful design have smacked the competition in the face and they have all be racing to get consumers to look at their 'iPhoney' devices. As long as you use it it's worth it, iPhone, iPhoney or other smartish phone. We will be sticking with Apple over RIM or MS. Gotta get back to my game of iSudoku. Enjoy!

[FormerPCwonk]

So let me get this straight. . .3/4s of your office have "Blackberry's" (sic) or Windows Mobile smartphones, yet you bought an iPhone, even though, in your opinion, it's "not really that amazing." No offense, but why did you buy it? Your own post makes you sound like you didn't think this thing through. .

Yet you don't stop there, because then you say you're ready to buy another one next week if they add text message forwarding and copy/paste? Why? Because those are the missing features it needs to make it amazing? Are you serious?

The bottom line here is simple. If you weren't satisfied with the product when it was released, YOU SHOULDN'T HAVE BOUGHT IT. Newsflash: manufacturers are more likely to make changes to slow-selling products than quick-selling ones. But a ton of people who were dissatisfied with the iPhone's feature set ran out and bought the thing anyway, then whined when Apple didn't make the changes they wanted (never mind the fact that the iPhone's brisk sales likely contributed to Apple's decision not to make such changes). In short, buying a phone you were not satisfied with on the date you bought was not the smartest decision you've ever made. Do yourself a favor and don't buy one next week. get a Blackberry or Windows Mobile.

[calpundit]

Can someone explain to me how the sale of licenses corresponds to the actual number of Windows Mobile phones that are in use or sold on a year to year basis?

Is a license considered sold when it is purchased by the end user? Is it considered sold when it is purchased by the hardware manufacturer? And are licenses purchased in bulk by manufacturers or one-at-a-time?

Since iPhone's OS linked to the hardware (Apple doesn't sell "licenses" to anybody but itself), it's hard to get an "apples to apples" (pun unavoidable, but not intended) comparison. It would be nice to know exactly what 20 million license sales means in terms of hardware market share. The article doesn't offer any insight. Can anyone else?

[Vegaman_Dan]

In the world of accounting, it works. Apple counts every single product shipped to retailers or distributors as as sale regardless if it sits on the shelf unpurchased. This is no different for Microsoft. In this regard, it is just a spin factor that any manufacturer is guilty of.

[ppgreat]

The same accounting methodology used to explain the number of people running Vista.

[rcrusoe]

ASAIK, MS considers something sold when it "leaves the building". For example, all those copies of Vista they have "sold" to businesses, that never seem to make it onto anyone's desktop. The iPhone has plenty of room for improvement, and MS has "sold" a lot of copies of Windows Mobile, but everyone is still trying to copy the iPhone. Makes you want to say "hummmmm"?

[Vegaman_Dan]

Hmmmmmmmm.... Apple does exactly the same thing. All iPhones that are shipped to distributors and retailers are considered 'sold' regardless of the actual status. It's a standard accounting method for OEM's.

[Thomas, David]

Hello Vegaman_Dan, long time. Well there is one thing about the iPhone. It leaves the shelves with relative ease. The retailers have no problem moving them. So in retrospect, they are in the hands of a lot of users. However, I to would like a copy/paste ability, but that certainly isn't a big deal. Forwarding messages? Well seems to me, that would simply be a functionality of the text messaging program, unless some crazy patent is preventing that from happening.

However, I do have a problem with claims that the iPhone isn't as functional as other devices, unless you are comparing specific programs, that aren't available for the iPhone yet. Mine has been an incredible useful device.

[Constable Odo]

In how many countries do Windows Mobile smartphones exist? 80 or 90 countries maybe. I would hope they could sell 20 million licenses. Give the iPhone one more full year and we'll see if Apple's numbers don't surpass Microsoft's in smartphone market share.

The iPhone has been around only one year and hasn't released firmware version 2.0 yet. Yeh, even I can't figure out why it is so difficult for the iPhone to have Copy/Paste. Surely it will be in the next firmware update. Windows Mobile is already at 6.1 and it's shoddy user interface isn't all that great even after all those revisions.

There's no point in trying to prove whether WinMo or OS X phones people most prefer. Each will have to judge on their own usage and we'll eventually find out which grabs the highest market share. One company or the combined effort of a half dozen companies.

[fmpdeveloper]

Microsoft counts a license sold when it is installed on a phone. Apple counts a iPhone sold when it is sold to the reseller. This basically makes unit comparisons equal. For example, Apple claimed iPhone unit sales of 3.7 million in 2007. However, AT&T stated that they closed out 2007 with 2 million iPhone customers. Where's the 1.7 million difference? Allowing for a generous 400,000 in international end-user sales, that left 1.3 million units -- or more than one-third of Apple's sales -- in the distribution channel and not in the hands of customers as of the end of calendar year 2007.

[SixVodkas]

There are a LOT more "unlocked" iPhones out there than you realize. Not that I've ever seen one, mind you (wink wink nudge nudge say no more!)

[coryschulz]

"there's going to be no ceasing of our innovation in the future"

Sorry, but there's no innovation to cease... which sort of makes this a true statement... but still very sad.

[thriftyT]

Microsoft has to get their licks in while they can. 20 million Windows mobile licenses in one year? Big wup.
After the release of the 3G iPhone (assuming Apple delivers 1/2 of what they're expected to deliver), I would bet that Apple will move 15 million iPhones in the June 2008 ? June 2009 period.

[t8]

The same accounting methodology used to explain the FORCED number of people running Vista.

[MaLvaDo39]

Apple - limited availability in a few countries and one model only.
Microsoft - worldwide release and many models

Microsoft sure likes to mislead the numbers...

They and RIM will be playing catchup on innovation for years to come once Apple opens the flood gates.

[KTLA_knew]

Lies. I've read in comments on this very web site repeatedly that the iPhone already has a signifantly larger market share than WM, period, no qualifications.

Who are you going to believe?

[calpundit]

fmpdeveloper, I don't understand how your math addresses Apple's own retail outlets, which is where a large majority of iPhones are sold in the U.S. Does Apple "sell" iPhones to itself before selling them to the end user? I also don't understand where the jailbroken iPhones fit in. As I understand it, there are a whole lot of iPhones that have been sold in the U.S. but never activated because the users have hacked them to work with other carriers.

[The_Decider]

What is there in WM that is innovative, or even noteworthy?

[Thomas, David]

All in all, I think it's a way to save face when Ballmer laughed about the iPhone, and stated "We've sold, millions, and millions, and millions of phones! How many has Apple sold ... zero!"
"It's the most expensive phone on the market, with the most expensive data plan! And it doesn't even have a keyboard!" ... of course he was wrong.

Of course he appeared to immediately regret the comment by backing it up with "I don't know, they might do quite well."

[zato_3]

dctrafik wrote: "Kudos to Microsoft for that one. As an EARLY (1st week) adopter of the iPhone, and someone who loves a lot about it, Frankly it is NOT really that amazing."

So.
Kudos to Microsoft, and the iPhone is NOT really that amazing. Tell me, dctrafik, does Microsoft pay extra when you get your post on top?

You really should be a better liar though...
Look at your sentence: "I read this blog often and am frankly shocked at how many people just blindly praise and chase after the iphone."

and then this one: As an EARLY (1st week) adopter of the iPhone...
LOL...
So which BS is which?...... All of it.

[Kwasiowusu]

Todd Bishop needs to stop carrying water for Apple for a change and get a life. The difference between nearly 20 million sold, and over 20 million sold could be as little as just TWO units(that is the difference between 19,999,999 sold and 20,000,001 sold). That is a cause for Todd Bishop's great "scoop?
Gimme a break!
Where do they get these stupid journalists from these days anyways?
Another thing, this is only Windows Mobile sales for just this year alone. If we add in Life to date Windows mobile sales, iPhone sales wouldn't even be on the same planet.
Plus the new Windows Mobile Smartphones from Samsung, like the superb i900, smoke the iPhones in every single department u care to mention.
http://news.softpedia.com/news/The-Exquisite-Samsung-i900-Appears-Again-87249.shtml

[Galaxy5]

The whole thing reminds me of Apple's 1995-era C:/NGRATLNS.W95 ad. Smarmy and smelling of desperation before a big fall.

[open-mind]

That's probably a good comparison.


The management team at Apple in 1995 was craptacular. Ditto for MS today.

[No invasion of privacy]

This is tantamount to a gross admission of failure on the part of MS. After the number of years they have been attempting to make headway in this market, they only sell 20 million licences per year? It should be 200 million+

Truly pathetic

[bugma302]

Constable Odo : Give the iPhone one more full year and we'll see if Apple's numbers don't surpass Microsoft's in smartphone market share.

They won't - just like the Mac won't outsell the PC. WMo is installed across a variety of manufacturers on a variety of carriers. Add to this the fact that many people will not pay the Apple/Carrier premium.

That said, I'm not sure what this article proves. Maybe Symbian fancy wading in with some figures tomorrow.

[open-mind]

I believe you're mistaken about what's going to happen. Unless Apple makes some huge bonehead mistake, it looks to me like they are poised to dominate the mobile device/phone space.

[NPGMBR]

Just like every other industry or business, they count a product as sold when it is (SOLD) to a company that actually puts it on a shelf. When GM, Toyota or other accepts an order for a dealer, it is sold to that dealer. The dealer owns the vehicle until they sell it to the consumer. Nothing unusual here.