The smartphone buzz in '09? It's not a product

There's already a lengthy wish list as users ponder the invention of the "ideal" smartphone in 2009. All well and good. But I submit that next year's most important technology development won't have anything to do with a new feature or application.

Instead, it's going to boil down to whether mobile device makers open smartphones as widely as the personal computer. Manufactures and carriers, scared to death about the possible security implications, may decide that it's wiser to instead keep their devices closed. How long they can ignore the pressure is unclear.

That's because it's only a matter of time before smartphones supplant mobile and desktop PCs--maybe not today, but eventually. A recent report on mobile Web usage forecast the number of highly capable Internet browsers on smartphones expanding from some 130 million units this year to around 530 million by 2013.

Even before the market reaches that point, the implications for smartphone security are likely going to be profound. Not the least because smartphones will face the same sorts of security and virus breaches that have become commonplace in the PC scene. Let's face it, people are creatures of habit and if past is prologue, they'll get lazy about virus protection. Odds are they're going to commit the same stupid acts of omission and commission with their smartphones that they do with their computers.

"Smartphone owners have been sending mixed signals about whether they see the need or the responsibility to deal with security, or whether they see it as the responsibility of carriers to put it in right out of the box," said Jan Volzke, a McAfee exec I spoke with recently.

If you think about how people have used their cell phones, it's basically been for sending messages and communication only. Only recently have devices gotten more complex. When it comes to Internet viruses, worms, or phishing, it's all available.

That's where the pushing and pulling between advocates arguing more open is better and those arguing just the opposite becomes especially relevant. For the companies behind Android, the iPhone, the BlackBerry, and Symbian, more openness means more software development and thus, more creative applications in the market. But as Khoi Nguyen, Symantec's group product manager for its mobile security group, told me, the downside is that this invites the attention of malicious virus writers.

"New technologies are being introduced. Lot of these smartphones have Wi-Fi connections and lots of users will go onto Wi-Fi connections or install voice over IP apps on their devices," he said. "It will be interesting to see how that plays out and to see whether hackers try and take advantage. We expect that they will."

So why haven't there been major smartphone attacks yet?

Chalk it up to the absence of anything approaching the Microsoft "monoculture" in PCs. The smartphone market is fragmented among Symbian, Windows Mobile, Apple, Java, etc., thus making it harder for writers of malicious code to come up with their incarnation of (literally) a "killer app." Turns out then, notes Volzke, that the No. 1 protection in mobile boils down to counting noses: "It's still easier for hackers to make money working on the PC side than on the mobile side...Fragmentation protects us and equals out to a very poor return on investment (for attackers). "

Not exactly a consoling thought but it does mean that we've bought some time. How long, of course is anybody's guess.

[Mr. Dee]

Man, I stopped at a old workplace today, tried fixing a Toshiba with XP SP2, the thing is rigged with virus, malware and trojans. The person didn't want me to format it since they have data on it and personally, I wasn't up to it either. I went to MSCONFIG, disabled all startup items, AVAST was up to date (December 28th 2008). I rebooted in Safe Mode, launched the AV but it requested I restart and let the AV do its thing. It seemed to remove a lot of stuff, but the system was still slow. I even connected her digital camera to my laptop running Vista x64 and even on the cameras SD card there were Trojans. <sigh>. I arrived around 11 am and didn't leave until 4 pm this evening.You know what I said, I will come back tomorrow and finish up. No, I am not going back tomorrow. I just went to say happy belated Christmas, not to play Virus hunter.

[vidanuevatx]

Mr. Dee's method is unwise. Lying to the person you're helping is never, never a good idea.

[ppartekim]

>That's because it's only a matter of time before smartphones supplant mobile and desktop PCs.

My thought exactly, Got a 12" Powerbook, changing it out to a new mac mini for home and a iPhone when one the road. When out and need more power will just VPN into the mac mini. The iPhone is lighter and I will always have it with me unlike the 12" PB which is bigger, heavier and NOT with me all the time. :)

[billmosby]

Why open things up more than something like the iPhone App store? Seems to me it's a winner all around. Developers get a hassle-free marketing and customer relations system, with only limited piracy concerns (I was going to say no piracy concerns, but you know it'll happen if it hasn't already). Users get a great degree of protection against malware, a reasonably convenient way of finding Apps, and pretty decent prices at the same time. Nothing except possibly some pesky software patent issues to prevent other vendors from adopting the same kind of system. I'd bet a lot of iPhone App developers would be interested in porting their Apps to other platforms if it were easy enough.

[xylyx3d]

you show your great ignorance of the facts with this comment. apple's system is a headache for developers, they never know if their app will be accepted or rejected. the un-written rules are ever changing with certain companies getting special treatment and others getting rejected for coming up with clever ideas apple wants to steel, or an app that does a better job than a built in app from apple. no apples system should not be repeated, it is the socialist system of applications and like all socialist systems it is only a matter of time before it collapses from corruption and mistrusts.

Palm got it right the first time, and android seams to be following their lead with a different delivery system. lets hope they continue with the free market system and not get drawn into application communism.

[elllroy]

"Not the least because smartphones will face the same sorts of security and virus breaches that have become commonplace in the PC scene."

you mean the windows scene. no (zero, nada, null) mac os x viruses after 8 years. what makes you think macos x on the iphone will be vulnerable to viruses?

and of course no one wants to have the ill fated, insecure, crapware businessmodel of the pc windows world on the smartphone-space. only vertical integrated companies will survive there. i would bet on these companies: apple, rim, nokia (after they closed symbian and made it completely their own) and even palm (when their new os is good), the rest will revolve around android. winmo is already dead because their is no space left for a mibile os you handsetmakers have to pay for.

[billmosby]

So, xylyx3d, are you developing for Palm, android, and iPhone too? If so, I bow to your superior knowledge of the facts. If not, not. I'm only developing for the iPhone myself, and so must wallow in relative ignorance.

[stigmattaman]

I get it, Apple doesn't have many viruses. Security through obscurity. But it's going to happen sooner or later, and the iPhone is gaining enough market share to make it happen.

"The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers"

Open's more secure eventually.

[D3vildog699]

Smartphones have never appealed to me. Its to much personal data on one device that I could loose. I have never needed internet on the run, ever. Not that some people don't i just haven't. My phone holds all the contacts I need. I want a phone, for a phone.