Why I'm passing on Google's 10th anniversary

If you're Eric Schmidt, you have to pray that Google is not going to need to hire an out-of-work comedian when it turns 30.

Happy birthday? You better believe it, pal.

Of course, Google has another couple of decades before reaching that milestone. By then, Schmidt will be kicking it in the Bahamas (or wherever it is that gazillionaires spend their golden, um, in this case, platinum years.)

It's been awhile, but I'm quite sure I did not write a piece marking the cosmic significance of Microsoft when it reached 10. (And I'm not going to bore you by writing about the metaphysical meaning of Google at 10, either. Here's the BBC report. )

Besides, there was a reason why Microsoft at 10 was hardly worthy of much note at the time. In 1988, you could have declared Microsoft to have been first among equals, though not much more than that. Yes, the company was growing fat and happy thanks to the incredible money machine that was DOS. And of course, each time a PC went out the door, Bill Gates and Co. received a royalty payment.

But Microsoft also had to contend with the likes of Lotus Development Corp., as well as WordPerfect, Borland, Ashton-Tate, Novell, and others. We know how the story ended. There were myriad reasons why history turned out the way it did--too many to recount in this space. But it's important to recall the way the computer industry's history actually unfolded. Microsoft's dominance wasn't guaranteed and the company had to claw its way to the top of the heap.

Schmidt knows this narrative through first-hand experience. He also knows that Google at 10 occupies a stronger position than did Microsoft at a similar point in its history. Neither Microsoft nor Yahoo have found a way to upend the search business. So that leaves the economy and the likelihood of a Martian invasion as Google's two biggest potential challenges. Can't do anything about the economy, though one has to believe (hope?) that the current meltdown eventually stops. As for the Martians, not to worry: California can call Schwarzenegger.

As for Google at 10, who cares? The better story is Google at 20. If past is prologue, that's going to be something to behold.

[Mr. Dee]

The thing is history is not gonna repeat itself. Why? Well, Microsoft has the resources and the platform to replicate Google's approach to delivering traditional applications as online services. I am sure any user out there would choose a web based version of Microsoft Word 2007 over Google Docs anyday. The fact that consumers still choose to go out and spend money on the latest version of Microsoft Office (120 million licenses), proves that Office is a better offering compared to what Google is trying insinuate. A lot of people don't realize that a lot of Googles efforts go back to two things and two things only Search and AdCenter. Nothing else is keeping Googles ship afloat.

[businesscontacts]

Google is in the same position Microsoft was against IBM, and with a gazillion more resources, so most probably in the future, Google will be where Microsoft is today and Microsoft will be where IBM is today.

[KTLA_knew]

Google at 20? It'll probably look something like Yahoo! at 20. Maybe they'll avoid it, but looking at history, the odds aren't in their favor.

[The_Decider]

At 20 Google will:

1. Dominate everyone's lives because they have a total lock on everyone's data and movements. Which is what all their 'free' software and their mobile OS is all about. Think Orwell.

or

2. Have been smacked hard for its privacy violations and have learned to succeed with a business model that doesn't involve cataloging everyone. They will also have to learn how to write solid, relatively bug free code that is intended for consumer use. Their crap almost makes MS look competent. Almost. A good example is Google docs: under-featured, just plain bad, and buggy as hell; especially if two or more people are working on the same doc.

or

3. Got smacked hard, didn't learn its lesson and got sued into oblivion.

[eltoro2827]

Who cares about google....since they came into play the internet is plagued w/ ads...death to google.

[The_Decider]

That is always what skillingssucks posts against those who dare speak bad about its master Google.

If people are clueless, how about writing an intelligent rebuttal about how Google is not a threat to privacy or have cursed the Internet with more and more ads.

I guess Google is paying you per post and not per word?

[Kwasiowusu]

@ Mr. Dee : "A lot of people don't realize that a lot of Googles efforts go back to two things and two things only Search and AdCenter. Nothing else is keeping Googles ship afloat. "

Correct.
Nothing outside search has made any money for Google, not even Youtube.
Microsoft continues to dominate the world's desktops with Windows, the productivity tools with Microsoft Office and IE still dominates web browsing. In Servers, Windows Sever and Exchange Server have a far higher market share than anyone else, with Windows Server growth actually outpacing that of Linux in 2007.
Google still dominates search, but in the past year alone, Google stock price is down over 40% as growth slowed down.

[sshetgar]

I really appreciate the microsoft for putting its hard efforts since from 75. in those days the things were challenging.

Microsoft sold DOS for the first 10 years. Google relied on an Internet, nonexistent when Microsoft started.They did & to great extent continue to sell different products and services to same users.
How many computers were in use in 1985 and what was the total market for software at that point? Both Google and Microsoft have accomplished great things, but to compare 2008 Google to 1985 Microsoft is absurd.

I wonder at what point in the near future these two giants will buy each other out ? And who do you think will buy who?


Till then wait and watch


--Santosh Shetgar

[The_Decider]

The internet existed when MS started.

The world wide web did not.

[sshetgar]

In the coming years i feel that google will try to change the way users access the internet.
Google might be thinking that,it will provide user an interface over internet in such a way that,Operating system may not required.

- why people need operating system ?? - can it be managed without OS!!!!
lets keep it for google to think and work on it! ;)

-Santosh Shetgar

[pipersdragon]

Having no operating system is possibly the worst idea I have heard of in years. I don't care what argument people try to make, Sometimes it's plain better to run programs on my own hardware and software...

[The_Decider]

It is almost always better to run programs directly on your machine.

Even if that changes, whatever you use to connect to all the web sites that hold your data hostage will still have some sort of OS on it.

[jedinc]

What about the "640K BARRIER"?????????????