Analyst: Amazon.com's Kindle to generate $750 million by 2010

Calling it the iPod of the book business, CitiGroup analyst Mark Mahaney says the Kindle e-book reader will generate three-quarters of a billion dollars for Amazon.com in less than two years.

That should account for up to 3 percent of Amazon's business. See his chart and reasoning here.

(Credit: Amazon.com)

His calculations assume that unit sales will grow from 189,000 by the end of this year to 2.2 million units in just two years. By then he assumes the price of the device will be just below $300. Mahaney also points out that Amazon does have the largest selection of e-book content.

Sure, Amazon has the e-book/e-book reader synergy going on, but still, his projections seem more than a little optimistic.

Besides the fact that the design leaves more than a bit to be desired, and it's expensive ($399 currently), his reasoning assumes people will completely change their reading habits, and that they'll be up for buying a separate device to do it.

More people would likely be onboard with the concept if it were rolled into their current device of choice, like a portable music player or smartphone with a decent-size screen.

[rmva]

If this were called the Apple Kindle, Erica would be drooling, literally drooling. She would be using words like disruptive to describe the impact it will have.

[ericaatnews]

LITERALLY. (You obviously know me really, really well. I can't believe we don't hang out more often.)

[muzakaz]

Great... something else that needs batteries?

I can buy a paperback book - used on Amazon for a few cents.

Why would I want a Kindle?

[edmalloy]

I can't imagine a less useful device. This is the dog of all dog's. If I want a portable book reader, I want it to be audible, not visible.

What's really fun though is watching the so-called analysts making fool's of themselves. If someone hadn't already written about the emperor and his clothes (or lack thereof), this "device" could be the centerpiece of that story.

ed

[kartemy]

I didn't actually know that dedicated eReader devices existed until about 8 months ago. When I did find out, I was instantly smitten. Research showed only two viable devices at that time (I'm talking about dedicated devices. I personally have no use for a PDA so even though I looked into that option, it was quickly dismissed).

The first option, and the one that led to me discovering eReaders was the Sony Portable Reader. The other option was the eBookwise Reader. After much research, I concluded that neither device was ideal. Each had good points and bad. In the end, I purchased the eBookwise Reader; mostly because it was around $118 as opposed to around $300 for the Sony reader. I wasn't sure if this would be a device I liked so I wanted to try the cheaper option first. I have to say that I love my eReader. I currently have a few dozen books at my fingertips and my capacity of 64 MB is only half met. If you are someone who likes to read novels, then an eReader is something to seriously look at.

[assman]

It's unfortunate that so many people don't understand the value of this product here.. it truly is a remarkable device.

[catch23]

Were it 'rolled into their current device', it would have no chance at all. The iPhone has one of the better screens out there, and reading something the length of a book on it would suck, beyond belief.

The real problem I see is that when I got my first MP3 player, I was able to rip all my existing CD's into it. If I could trade in the books I already own and get the digital copy, I'd be first in line to get one.

[wgilbert5]

I own one and I don't really care if you like it or don't. To me, it is the best (far better than paper) reader there has been. Mine goes with me everywhere and I read it on breaks, lunch, and any other time I can get a few minutes to myself. If you haven't tried the Kindle, don't knock it.

[Wes#1]

I still don't see the advantage of this thing. When I want to read a novel, I carry the BOOK along with me and read it! (Imagine that...) Is this for speed-readers who go through several long novels while waiting in a airport? I just don't see the wide market appeal. "2.2 million units in just two years" will be snapped up by the public?? Based on what?