NAB: Will DVRs thwart rise of online TV shows?

LAS VEGAS--Big TV networks are rushing to attract Internet audiences, but there are signs that the payoff won't be that sexy.

One of the burning questions television broadcasters face is whether the Web can be mined for big advertising dollars. NBC Universal, CBS, and Viacom are just a few of the media conglomerates moving quickly to offer full-length TV shows over the Web.

What will surely be debated here this week at the National Association of Broadcasters' annual conference--which gets rolling on Monday--is whether the masses will welcome TV on a PC.

Actor Tim Robbins

What about commercials? Will audiences resent being forced to watch commercials online, when TiVo and other digital video recorder, or DVR, models enable them to skip ads on plain-old TVs?

Earlier this month, Toronto-based Convergence Consulting Group released a report (PDF) skeptical of TV's prospects on the Web and urged cable, satellite, and broadcast executives to stay focused on their traditional businesses.

"There is no current economic rationale for broadcasters and cable networks to abandon traditional TV or attempt to accelerate a transition to a total online model," the group said in its report. "To do so would put $66 billion in traditional TV advertising revenue and $30 billion in cable, satellite, (and telecommunications companies') TV provider programming fees at risk."

One of the main sticking points for online TV shows is commercials. TV executives are using the technology to once again ram ads down the throats of viewers. Convergence argues that in head-to-head competition, the public will choose traditional TV and commercial-zapping DVRs over watching on the Web.

The "bottom line," Convergence wrote, is that "the DVR will limit full-episode online viewing."

Meanwhile, NBC Universal trumpeted an important milestone last week. Hulu, the video portal founded by NBC and News Corp., sold out of available ad inventory after being open only a month. NBC President Jeff Zucker announced that Hulu is looking for ways to make more ads available.

Director Doug Liman

In addition, the Associated Press reported Saturday that networks are getting better ad rates for Internet distribution than they are for traditional broadcasts.

"Advertisers pay more online because there is a better accounting of how many viewers see the ads," the AP wrote. "An extra benefit that an impulse to purchase can be acted on with the click of a mouse."

NAB notes
Actor Tim Robbins, star of the "The Shawshank Redemption" and "Mystic River" is scheduled to give the opening keynote address at NAB. Robbins will speak about how new content and distribution methods will impact Hollywood.

Other notables due to speak at the conference are Jeffrey Katzenberg, CEO of Dreamworks Animation; Doug Liman, director of The Bourne Identity; and Jason Kilar, CEO of Hulu.

[ahickey]

DVR/PVR way to go for the moment

I use my PVR to record and watch later a lot of programs I would otherwise miss and to free up my time for other things.
For IPTV, WebTV online broadbasting i have to go to each content providers website, check if the program is available and then watch it.
With my DVR I just click record and it's there, all in one place with no expiration or other distractions on screen.

Based in this I think online TV has a long way to go to replace regular TV and even more to overcome the DVR.

[rcrusoe]

Same here, but not for long

Between the lousy programming I find on TV and the poor
quality of the delivery (I'm on Comcast) I'm finding fewer reasons
to watch TV these days. (The HD shows on cable, at least in my
area, seem to be highly compressed, and suffer from frequent
audio dropouts and freezing.)

I get most of my news online and find that most of the TV shows
I do watch are now on iTunes. So my plans are to switch to an
antenna, drop cable, and buy what I can from iTunes or other
similar sites if/when they become available.

If that doesn't work, there's always books.

[Renegade Knight]

Not as far as you think.

There is no reason an DVR can't capture online content for later playback. Of course being online also means the internet is the DVR since you can play a show any time you wish. In that light the real issue is content and quality.

[paulsecic]

Agree

Web TV is spewed all over DVRS are here for 20 years at least.

[Fox3TX]

Apples and Oranges, technology-wise.

Not everyone has cable/satellite TV service and/or a TiVo or other DVR. Those of us who have nothing more than an antenna feeding over-the-air broadcasts into our regular TV's or HDTV's quite enjoy the option of watching our favorite programs online. I've watched a number of TV shows online, especially from abc.com. The advertisements online are fewer than over-the-air broadcasts. Pause and skip-ahead (to the next commercial break) support interrupted viewing of an episode. And, viewing online can be done almost anywhere Internet access is available (unless it is blocked at work). One of the commuter train services in my area started implementing WiFi on the trains last Summer. Presumably, a commuter could watch half an episode going to work in the morning, and watch the other half on his way home in the evening.

The only thing I miss about not having cable is the Discovery Channel family of channels (TLC, etc.). I just checked discovery.com and they're offering online viewing of full episodes.

IMHO, there are some people out there who will get the latest, greatest device/product regardless of the cost. There are people who are all about "the best bang for the buck," and will gladly use a free service as long as it isn't too annoying. Then, there are all the people who fall somewhere between the two. Let's not mention the extremists today. I believe that there will be quite the market for both online viewing of TV shows and for users of DVR technology.

[Kesteral]

I agree

I very rarely watch broadcast or cable TV anymore... mainly because of the poor quality of the programming available, and the long waits during commercial breaks. One or two commercials is not an issue for me, but ten to fifteen minutes of nothing but commercials on a half hour show is just a waste of time. I have recently begun to watch shows over the internet, and they work out just fine for me.

[bea01]

Need to enable full screen mode from the browser

Have a windows media center hooked directly to the HDTV and stream NetFlix on demand shows all the time. For the other guys, I will sit through commercials to catch my favorite shows (i.e., Pushing Up Daises).

Have a couple of suggestion though. First, don?t bother, if you are not willing to offer full screen mode. Next, get some variety in those commercials. Maybe I am out of practice having skipped commercials for the last ten years with TiVo, but the repetition becomes mind numbing.

[inachu]

I have almost abandoned TV.

I only watch 60 minutes and StarGate Atlantis.
Anything else is pure trash so I turn to online streaming videos.

Problems is not everyone is hosting 1980's era movies. Would love to get my hands on 1980's movies that are no longer sold in conventional stores like: THE KEEP, THE KEEP part 2.

Todays stores have repalced old movies with Hispanic content geared towards the influx of illegals.