NAB: Will DVRs thwart rise of online TV shows?

LAS VEGAS--Big TV networks are rushing to attract Internet audiences, but there are signs that the payoff won't be that sexy.

One of the burning questions television broadcasters face is whether the Web can be mined for big advertising dollars. NBC Universal, CBS, and Viacom are just a few of the media conglomerates moving quickly to offer full-length TV shows over the Web.

What will surely be debated here this week at the National Association of Broadcasters' annual conference--which gets rolling on Monday--is whether the masses will welcome TV on a PC.

Actor Tim Robbins

What about commercials? Will audiences resent being forced to watch commercials online, when TiVo and other digital video recorder, or DVR, models enable them to skip ads on plain-old TVs?

Earlier this month, Toronto-based Convergence Consulting Group released a report (PDF) skeptical of TV's prospects on the Web and urged cable, satellite, and broadcast executives to stay focused on their traditional businesses.

"There is no current economic rationale for broadcasters and cable networks to abandon traditional TV or attempt to accelerate a transition to a total online model," the group said in its report. "To do so would put $66 billion in traditional TV advertising revenue and $30 billion in cable, satellite, (and telecommunications companies') TV provider programming fees at risk."

One of the main sticking points for online TV shows is commercials. TV executives are using the technology to once again ram ads down the throats of viewers. Convergence argues that in head-to-head competition, the public will choose traditional TV and commercial-zapping DVRs over watching on the Web.

The "bottom line," Convergence wrote, is that "the DVR will limit full-episode online viewing."

Meanwhile, NBC Universal trumpeted an important milestone last week. Hulu, the video portal founded by NBC and News Corp., sold out of available ad inventory after being open only a month. NBC President Jeff Zucker announced that Hulu is looking for ways to make more ads available.

Director Doug Liman

In addition, the Associated Press reported Saturday that networks are getting better ad rates for Internet distribution than they are for traditional broadcasts.

"Advertisers pay more online because there is a better accounting of how many viewers see the ads," the AP wrote. "An extra benefit that an impulse to purchase can be acted on with the click of a mouse."

NAB notes
Actor Tim Robbins, star of the "The Shawshank Redemption" and "Mystic River" is scheduled to give the opening keynote address at NAB. Robbins will speak about how new content and distribution methods will impact Hollywood.

Other notables due to speak at the conference are Jeffrey Katzenberg, CEO of Dreamworks Animation; Doug Liman, director of The Bourne Identity; and Jason Kilar, CEO of Hulu.

[ahickey]

DVR/PVR way to go for the moment

I use my PVR to record and watch later a lot of programs I would otherwise miss and to free up my time for other things.
For IPTV, WebTV online broadbasting i have to go to each content providers website, check if the program is available and then watch it.
With my DVR I just click record and it's there, all in one place with no expiration or other distractions on screen.

Based in this I think online TV has a long way to go to replace regular TV and even more to overcome the DVR.

[rcrusoe]

Same here, but not for long

Between the lousy programming I find on TV and the poor
quality of the delivery (I'm on Comcast) I'm finding fewer reasons
to watch TV these days. (The HD shows on cable, at least in my
area, seem to be highly compressed, and suffer from frequent
audio dropouts and freezing.)

I get most of my news online and find that most of the TV shows
I do watch are now on iTunes. So my plans are to switch to an
antenna, drop cable, and buy what I can from iTunes or other
similar sites if/when they become available.

If that doesn't work, there's always books.

[Renegade Knight]

Not as far as you think.

There is no reason an DVR can't capture online content for later playback. Of course being online also means the internet is the DVR since you can play a show any time you wish. In that light the real issue is content and quality.

[paulsecic]

Agree

Web TV is spewed all over DVRS are here for 20 years at least.

[gwhitham]

TV and commercials

If broadcasters think that they will be able to get me to watch shows on the internet without being able to skip the commercials, think again. As it stands, I watch very little of broadcast tv because there are so many commercials. When a commercial comes on, I start to skip around the channels and often do not come back to the program I wanted to watch anyway. So my solution to the whole problem of commercials is to buy the tv shows I want to watch. Often I can buy a whole season of a show for around $20 or so. When I can watch all the episodes without commercials, totally uninterrupted, why the hell would I want to watch regular tv? I love the fact that I can buy a season and not see any commercials. It's great. Then, when I am done, I can trade seasons with a friend and incur no cost for doing that. It's a win win situation. I win because there are no commercials. The production company wins because they sell dvd's. Perfect!!! No commercials.

[mr3vil]

we're on the same wavelength

I'm exactly the same way. Since I built my own PVR system that does a passable job of detecting commercial breaks I can't stand to watch live TV anymore without letting it sit for 30 minutes on pause. The Commercials themselves wouldn't be so bad if it weren't the same ones ad nauseum in a shuffled order every break. The tenth time I saw William H. Macy's "We can solve it" commercial in the tenth consecutive commercial break I turned the cable box off and started playing games on my PC and Xbox.

As far as viewing shows online, ads on the page are ok, but I wouldn't stand ads during playback. I think Television needs to get back to more in show product placement like happened in radio shows and early TV, so long as they are discrete about it. Y'know the old saying, Less is more.

[gwhitham]

TV

I also have to comment about the quality of tv shows. Most of them really suck. There is no substance, comedy shows really are not all that funny. Reality shows are all over the place and besides, who really wants to watch other people's problems. The majority of tv shows do not come close to what is entertainment. How many news channels, shopping channels and other crap channels do we really need? How many good shows are there really? When you consider how many channels you get, and then you only watch 1 or 2 of them out of the 1 2 or 3 hundred there are, plus the fact that you really only have time to watch maybe if you are lucky an hour or so because you are so busy with the rest of your life. So why bother paying for 24 hours of cable when you can only watch 1 hour? Makes absolutely no sense to pay for nothing. If you want to grab my attention, put the old good tv shows on basic cable. That way I don't have to pay for 3 tier programming when I only watch 1 channel. The executives that make the decision to put the good shows up on the most expensive tier have their heads up their a55. I hope that tv in it's current form does die.

[aka_tripleB]

Don't forget

That most channels on paid television start showing "paid programming" (infomercials) after 12 or 2 a.m. And it's always the same infomercials.

[gwhitham]

DVR, PVR, no VR

What else is really cool about just plain old buying DVD's is you don't have set up any schedule to record, you don't have to buy a D or PVR. Just buy the DVD's and play them!! No screwing around. No broadcaster pressure on you!! That's great. No commercials, No broadcaster, No crap!! Just exactly what you want. No CRTC, No FCC, no censorship, no cable, satellite packages that include stuff you never want to watch but have to pay for!!! Buy yourself a HDTV and a BluRay and sit back and watch uninterrupted, high quality video, audio commercial free uncensored watch anytime manytime and retain the shows already on DVD!!!

[gwhitham]

Movie theaters

Oh yeah, don't go to movie theaters. You pay more for junkfood, get to sit in crappy seats, sit through commercials. For the same price, you can buy the movie, buy a bunch of junk food, sit in your favorite chair, pause the movie, invite friends over, basically have a really good time without worrying that you're gonna fall asleep at the theater and miss half the movie. You don't even get any cartoons anymore. It's all become such a big rip off!!! I went to a movie for the first time in quite a while recently and there were coca cola commercials. I was so pissed off I swore it would be even longer before I go again.

[celticbrewer]

Amen!

Amen, Brutha!

I went to a recent movie in their new "digital theater" because I received free tickets. The video quality and audio was horrible compared to my home theater (and that was *before* I went BluRay!).

One thing you forgot to point out was all the other people you have to deal with- coughing, laughing, cell phones going off, getting in your way, etc...

And now the gas prices to drive to the theater...

I'll sit at home and wait for my BR disc to arrive from netflix.

[Fox3TX]

Apples and Oranges, technology-wise.

Not everyone has cable/satellite TV service and/or a TiVo or other DVR. Those of us who have nothing more than an antenna feeding over-the-air broadcasts into our regular TV's or HDTV's quite enjoy the option of watching our favorite programs online. I've watched a number of TV shows online, especially from abc.com. The advertisements online are fewer than over-the-air broadcasts. Pause and skip-ahead (to the next commercial break) support interrupted viewing of an episode. And, viewing online can be done almost anywhere Internet access is available (unless it is blocked at work). One of the commuter train services in my area started implementing WiFi on the trains last Summer. Presumably, a commuter could watch half an episode going to work in the morning, and watch the other half on his way home in the evening.

The only thing I miss about not having cable is the Discovery Channel family of channels (TLC, etc.). I just checked discovery.com and they're offering online viewing of full episodes.

IMHO, there are some people out there who will get the latest, greatest device/product regardless of the cost. There are people who are all about "the best bang for the buck," and will gladly use a free service as long as it isn't too annoying. Then, there are all the people who fall somewhere between the two. Let's not mention the extremists today. I believe that there will be quite the market for both online viewing of TV shows and for users of DVR technology.

[Kesteral]

I agree

I very rarely watch broadcast or cable TV anymore... mainly because of the poor quality of the programming available, and the long waits during commercial breaks. One or two commercials is not an issue for me, but ten to fifteen minutes of nothing but commercials on a half hour show is just a waste of time. I have recently begun to watch shows over the internet, and they work out just fine for me.

[bea01]

Need to enable full screen mode from the browser

Have a windows media center hooked directly to the HDTV and stream NetFlix on demand shows all the time. For the other guys, I will sit through commercials to catch my favorite shows (i.e., Pushing Up Daises).

Have a couple of suggestion though. First, don?t bother, if you are not willing to offer full screen mode. Next, get some variety in those commercials. Maybe I am out of practice having skipped commercials for the last ten years with TiVo, but the repetition becomes mind numbing.

[inachu]

I have almost abandoned TV.

I only watch 60 minutes and StarGate Atlantis.
Anything else is pure trash so I turn to online streaming videos.

Problems is not everyone is hosting 1980's era movies. Would love to get my hands on 1980's movies that are no longer sold in conventional stores like: THE KEEP, THE KEEP part 2.

Todays stores have repalced old movies with Hispanic content geared towards the influx of illegals.